Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Hypothetical question since we think diversification is over rated....which seems more likely over the next 5 years?

Tesla able to justify it's market cap to $3.5T
Rivian able to justify it's market cap to $400B

Both of those represent 5x

Place your bets!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431522886456651778

It depends upon what you mean by "able to justify it's market cap". Is this a trick question? Because by Elon's suggested metric of at least1 vehicle per billion dollars of valuation, as little as 400 Rivian in 5 years could justify 400 billion valuation?

/s

Seriously though, that exercise just illuminates how unlikely Rivian is to be a great investment, at least based on the performance we have seen from them over the last 12 years.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Manufacturers Suggested Retail Prices according to Google:

Toyota Camry From $25,045
Honda Civic From $21,250
Toyota Corolla From $20,025
Honda Accord From $24,970

Tesla Model 3 From $39,990

Toyota Prius From $24,525
Nissan Sentra From $19,510
Hyundai Elantra From $19,650

So a luxury car has invaded the California econobox market, outselling half the top 7 models, at roughly twice the price. Guess what will happen when Tesla's economy model arrives.

Final products with options have a smaller price difference?

 

[ZeApelido]

Ford invested in Rivian.

Rivian is worth more than Ford.

It shouldn have been Rivian investing in Ford, but I'd bet they think it's a bad idea.

That's funny.

 

[PeterJA]

Final products with options have a smaller price difference?

According to Car and Driver, the top-trim Camry TRD starts at $33,285.
Tesla Model 3 Performance starts at $56,990.

So, no.

 

[FastCompany]

...east of GigaAustin, but also a ~1m square foot SpaceX facility to the west... I would not be surprised for more in the future.

Do we have any official confirmation that the area west of the highway across from Giga Austin is for a SpaceX building ? I've heard the rumours it was going to be a Starlink factory, but I've never believed it.

 

[bruce4000]

According to Car and Driver, the top-trim Camry TRD starts at $33,285.
Tesla Model 3 Performance starts at $56,990.

So, no.

Whenever legacy auto says “from” it means you won’t actually find any of those on the lot with the available ones significantly higher. So a model 3 SR+ For $40k, had 0-60 time 5.3sec, TRD is 5.8 sec. ev is more but not as dramatic fir a comparable car.

 

[gene]

Sorry I couldn’t easily find this as a chart or table. I believe household solar is a big factor as well.

When people can use their own accumulated solar energy as a replacement for dinosaur juice, the transition to EV becomes even easier.

There is a chicken/egg argument to made here as well. Someone more willing to see the benefits of household solar is more likely to see the benefits of EV.

View attachment 702699

California is #1 for solar and EV's. But the utilities prodded on by the Fossil industry are working hard to make solar in California a thing of the past with outrageous hook up fees and loss of net metering. Letters to Gavin Newsom recommended.

Please take a l@@k: California Utilities Plan All Out War On Solar, Please Read And Help

 

[StealthP3D]

I just got myself into a dinner + 100pt wine bet with my cousin that the cybertruck will outsell lightening in 2022.

Wish me luck folks.

Does your cousin realize this is a production contest, not a sales contest? Just curious.

 

[Buddyroe]

Weekend OT:
Last night I passed a Lucid Air on the highway driving on Hwy 101 from the CA central coast to the SF Bay Area. Sorry no photos my photographer (8yo son) was sleeping as it was 1 am. A few observations;

1.) Oddly, the Lucid was driving approximately 60 mph in the fast lane for some reason…kinda dangerous when the flow of traffic is 75-80 and you’ll get run off the road going slower.

2.) the rear light bar is beautiful and the car has a very attractive shape generally. It did have camo wrap so couldn’t fully appreciate the car.

3.) the front headlights seemed dangerously/blindingly bright. Subjectively twice as bright as the next brightest lights I encountered.

4.) I was in a loaner S75D with only 200 mile range so I had to stop twice to charge. Got me thinking I’d rather have less range and the Tesla SC network than have the (alleged) 500 miles of range and no charging network. Therefore being fixed at a 60 mph top speed!

I have no skin in the Lucid game but as an EV enthusiast it’s good to see them making progress towards market readiness.

Just wondering - how many miles was your drive (total)?

 

[PeterJA]

Whenever legacy auto says “from” it means you won’t actually find any of those on the lot with the available ones significantly higher. So a model 3 SR+ For $40k, had 0-60 time 5.3sec, TRD is 5.8 sec. ev is more but not as dramatic fir a comparable car.

Agreed, the price difference is less dramatic between the lowest-priced Model 3 and highest-priced Camry. But the sales ranking didn't compare those trims only. If it did, I suspect the sales-number difference would also be less dramatic.

 

[Unpilot]

we need not diminish one accomplishment to credit another.
Bezos & co pretty much invented web services. It was there, but did not work well.
Bezos & co reinvented retailing in much of the world, and imitators followed closely.
those are not as sexy as SpaceX nor even Tesla, but they have been consequential.
why is it surprising that the Bezos-Musk relationship is competitive.
FWIW, I owe them both large debts of gratitude just as I do the inimitable Mr Jobs.

Yes....but....one was wildly successful selling basically trinkets and books and later web services while one was endeavoring to change the course of history.
Then, when one "retired" to focus on space, he is trying to sue his way to success.

My point being when our next generations look's back, who will they find to be the most consequential?
Or course we do have to clear the great filter before any on this becomes germane.

 

[Oveeus]

Rivian will probably do exactly the same as HOOD.

HOOD Interactive Stock Chart | Robinhood Markets, Inc. Stock - Yahoo Finance

At Yahoo Finance, you get free stock quotes, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, international market data, social interaction and mortgage rates that help you manage your financial life.

finance.yahoo.com

$HOOD is very different than investing in Rivian. $HOOD is generating cashflow with no major cap-ex in the foreseeable horizon.

Rivian, otoh... it's about to get to the event horizon of a money blackhole.

And if 5x is the target, I'd take a gentleman bet that $HOOD will get there faster than Rivian.

 

[dhanson865]

At the risk of perpetuating this non-story about an accident that caused zero injuries... Can someone please explain to me why a police vehicle would be even partially over the shoulder line impeding 65+ mph traffic on an interstate highway? In my experience it is extremely rare not to have a shoulder on an interstate wide enough to fit a police car.

And yes, I'm implying that the officer might share responsibility for the accident along with the inattentive driver due to his/her unsafe actions.

If I'm just jumping to unwarranted conclusions, first, I apologize. Second, excuse me while I start my new career as a journalist.

If they are parked behind a broken down vehicle or the remains of a collision or any sort of damage in the road it's procedure to have the car stick out as far as the obstruction they are warning about.

If they tuck in on the shoulder but there is a danger in the first lane it's insufficient warning to traffic.

 

[insaneoctane]

Self-driving cars could be excluded from EV tax incentives.

Excellent. Yes, that's a doosey....I suspect Tesla would be fine with selling non-FSD cars to people who would be willing to pay extra to add it after purchase to qualify for tax incentives. The bigger middle finger would be to exclude self driving capable cars. Ouch.

 

[StealthP3D]

At the risk of perpetuating this non-story about an accident that caused zero injuries... Can someone please explain to me why a police vehicle would be even partially over the shoulder line impeding 65+ mph traffic on an interstate highway? In my experience it is extremely rare not to have a shoulder on an interstate wide enough to fit a police car.

And yes, I'm implying that the officer might share responsibility for the accident along with the inattentive driver due to his/her unsafe actions.

If I'm just jumping to unwarranted conclusions, first, I apologize. Second, excuse me while I start my new career as a journalist.

Police have specialized training to protect themselves from lethal threats. It's heavily focused on strangers that may have a gun. The danger of 70 mph traffic doesn't get the same emphasis even though more officers die from traffic related accidents than gunfire (in the U.S.). And in the first half of this year, more officers have died from COVID (all reported to have been contracted in the course of official duties) than both gunfire and traffic combined.

Most officers I've encountered in a traffic stop appear to be more concerned about the threat from potential guns than fast-approaching traffic and this is likely the result of training that focuses more heavily on the former. I'm always amazed at how nonchalant they appear even when they are parked right on the lane-line of fast moving traffic. It's very dangerous work as the statistics show. This is not because of Autopilot.

I've even seen a video of an officer who did a pit maneuver on a motorist who was being pulled over for going 84 mph in a 70 zone, she slowed down to 60 mph and put her emergency flashers on as she looked for a place wide enough to pull off the highway safely. The lady was trying to keep both the officer and herself safe but the officer didn't see it that way:

Had she pulled over on that 70 mph freeway, both cars would have been sticking out into traffic. In the first half of this year, 19 U.S. officers have died from being struck outside their vehicle. Were any of them caused by Autopilot? No, I can't even find any instances where an officer was injured by a Tesla with Autopilot activated. It's pretty obvious we have a bad/inattentive/drunk driver problem, not an Autopilot problem.

 

[gabeincal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431012932633042944

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431795422574440451

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Unfortunately most everywhere in the EU will have similar delays because of environmental permits. I guess in some of the eastern countries it might be possible to 'by-pass' permit problems by greasing the right hands. I'm sure Tesla won't. Most of those countries would have plenty of other problems Tesla would want to avoid anyway.

You need to build the cars in the EU to get the benefits from selling them there.

Tesla Berlin will do just fine as a car factory and is still about a year ahead of any reasonable timetable. Elon knows that.

Berlin wasn't scaled back because of permits or environmental concerns, it was the German govt waiting for Tesla to break ground and then immediately trying to cut Tesla out of their domestic EV subsidies.

As was noted, not too hard for suppliers or Tesla themselves to mow setup in Poland or elsewhere to manufacture packs so there's less footprint in DE but the cars still get the subsidy.

This will all pass in a couple years when legacy German carmakers start really struggling or even failing. Then hopefully they circle back to Tesla in support of expansion at GigaBerlin. Germany really really really knows how to look out for itself. Nothing wrong with that I guess, they're only shooting themselves in the foot.

 

[generalenthu]

Does your cousin realize this is a production contest, not a sales contest? Just curious.

Good question. Yes, for this bet. He thinks it's gonna come in Elon time in 2023, if it comes at all.

But I think he'll offer me a longer term bet as well, as he thinks that the world will run out of fans of the cybertruck design. He's a cxo in an oil adjacent biz. So, we keep having this banter every other time we meet. He does see the future and their next car is an ev. They need it soon and unfortunately no X or Y in stock and going with a lesser alternative.

 

[st_lopes]

For those keeping score… there were 200+ M3 LFP in inventory 48 hours ago. There are now less than 20.

Similar for Plaid inventory… went from 70+ to under 10 over the last few days.

Q3 is going to be a barn burner!

United States Tesla All inventory

This is the All inventory for cars in United States. The inventory is taken from Tesla directly and refreshed every few minutes, we also explicitly differentiate between New and Demo cars both of which Tesla list as New. In many countries we also gather used cars from various sources. We allow...

tesla-info.com

 

[SPadival]

The leaked emails all involve correspondence between Robbie Sabathier, the vice president of government operations and strategic communications at ULA, and Hasan Solomon, a lobbyist at the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, a large aerospace union.

The emails, and an accompanying Microsoft Word document, include allegations that Musk has run roughshod over US regulatory agencies but acted more subserviently to Chinese regulators when it comes to his Tesla automotive business. None of this information is particularly new to those who track the space and automotive industries. Musk is stubborn and has always had a rocky relationship with regulating agencies such as the Federal Aviation Administration and Federal Communications Commission. And US companies must play by strict Chinese rules to operate in China.

In leaked email, ULA official calls NASA leadership “incompetent”

"Let me know if there’s anything else you need—we are here to serve!"

arstechnica.com

I bet something similar is going on between UAW , Ford/GM and Biden admin