$730 has nearly 60k shares with sell orders... until that chips away, it will keep bouncing off 730.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Yup also the reason I don’t think it takes off this week. Despite being up 2.5% earlier, half of my options including most of my leaps were down between 3-6%.
I still think the strategy here to devalue options, both near term and long term as much as possible and then gobble them up right before the breakout happens. I think I’ll see unusual options activity in my leaps before the breakout actually happens
Was about to post the same. OTM Leaps are marked down across the board despite an increase in share price from Friday and what looks like a solid q3.
That said, IV on the OTM Leaps has been markedly higher relative to near term IV, which has dropped significantly in the last few months. This may just be the starting and I think leaps will continue to become better bargains even as the shares push higher. At least until the market makers wake up and realize there is exponential growth ahead.
jhm
Well-Known Member
It is nice to see that the market is becoming more comfortable with Tesla being up YTD. TSLA closed 2020 at just $705.67.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Err... OK. $725 it is then. I mean, if that's where you guys want it...
Of course, happy for the run up today. But, the ability to bring this down this afternoon is relatively impressive - especially that bear attack as Tesla hit $730.00. End of summer driven light volume is allowing for easy capping/spoofing this afternoon. That same light volume, however, could allow for the pirates to get steamrolled if buyers decide to get back in this afternoon. Get out the popcorn. (-;
So which is it, do you only need an hour on Monday or half the week to know where it will end?
Why is this happening?
LEAP prices appear to be selling closer to the theoretical option price all of a sudden.
@StarFoxisDown! , who's strategy is this and how do they do it?
So which is it, do you only need an hour on Monday or half the week to know where it will end?
Takes all of an hour to see that MM's are active.......takes a day or two to know what number they're shooting for
In this case, we already got our answer....730. About 500k in sell orders in rapid succession made it very clear they don't want it going above that number for Friday
StreetInsider - hour ago: Tesla (TSLA) Fremont Factory Checks Shows Activity 'Back to Normal', Suggests 'Massive' Q4 - Global Equities' Chowdhry
Excerpt:
Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry noted activity at Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) Fremont Factory is "back to normal" after a recent drop as international shipments are now happening from China.
Chowdhry said this makes him "very confident" the fourth quarter will be "massive."
The analyst showed pictures of the Model S Plaid lined up for shipping. Further, employee activity is back to normal and the Giga press is fully operational.
Chowdhry was at the factory on August 29, 2021.
Excerpt:
Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry noted activity at Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) Fremont Factory is "back to normal" after a recent drop as international shipments are now happening from China.
Chowdhry said this makes him "very confident" the fourth quarter will be "massive."
The analyst showed pictures of the Model S Plaid lined up for shipping. Further, employee activity is back to normal and the Giga press is fully operational.
Chowdhry was at the factory on August 29, 2021.
Now reminds me a little of June, 2019 when Shanghai was on the horizon, and nobody seemed to notice.
Hard to believe that was just over two years ago
MoneyControl - half hour ago: Tesla gets approval for four models from India’s testing agencies
Excerpt:
Electric vehicle giant Tesla has cleared the homologation stage for all the four models/variants it had sought approval for in India paving the way for their launch.
As per information shared by the Centre-controlled Vahan Sewa, Tesla India Motors and Energy, the India subsidiary of Tesla Inc. has received approvals for all four of its vehicle variants. Homologation is a process that certifies a particular vehicle is roadworthy after meeting all the specified criteria.
It was not immediately clear which models or variants these were but multiple test cars of Tesla have been spotted regularly on Indian roads. Model 3 and Model Y have been seen testing in India since the past several weeks.
The approval, however, does not mean an immediate launch. Tesla, which has sought lowering of import duties from the Indian government, is yet to finalise its launch plans. The company is hoping to have a cheaper price tag on its cars which is otherwise not possible due to the steep import duties.
Excerpt:
Electric vehicle giant Tesla has cleared the homologation stage for all the four models/variants it had sought approval for in India paving the way for their launch.
As per information shared by the Centre-controlled Vahan Sewa, Tesla India Motors and Energy, the India subsidiary of Tesla Inc. has received approvals for all four of its vehicle variants. Homologation is a process that certifies a particular vehicle is roadworthy after meeting all the specified criteria.
It was not immediately clear which models or variants these were but multiple test cars of Tesla have been spotted regularly on Indian roads. Model 3 and Model Y have been seen testing in India since the past several weeks.
The approval, however, does not mean an immediate launch. Tesla, which has sought lowering of import duties from the Indian government, is yet to finalise its launch plans. The company is hoping to have a cheaper price tag on its cars which is otherwise not possible due to the steep import duties.
If you go back through some of my posts, I've continually thought that massive contraction in volume (just look at the 1, 2, and 5 year volume charts to see what I'm talking about) is a coordinated effort by the big investment banks to devalue options. Options were very pricey at the beginning of the year. I think Wall St wants in on the options for the next rally up....a rally that's probably going to last non stop for a couple years minimum because Tesla's earnings will continually support higher valuation, quarter after quarter. Literally for the next 2+ years, since we have two new factories that will start and take about a year to a year and a half to fully ramp to their potential, means nonstop each quarter will be record production, deliveries, revenue and record earnings.
But instead of paying a premium to those calls, they just said we're going not going to buy shares and if enough funds/investments banks work together to take away volume, there's not enough volume to really push the stock in either direction, thus devaluing call options massively for this year and for the next 1-2 years. Given that MM investment banks are the ones that can naked short.....if they can take away buying volume, it's laughably easy for them to naked short and drop the stock or cap it.
They'll use the excuse of "Oh this is just Tesla growing into it's valuation" which is nonsense and they know it. A company that's growing 50% and will be growing much more than that over the next 1-2 years AND who earnings are growing exponentially more than the revenue should not be seeing it's P/E contracting the way Tesla's has. It took 5 years for Amazon's huge P/E of like 2,500 to go down to under a P/E of 100. Tesla's on track to go from a P/E of 1200 to under 200 in a year if the stock stays where it's at after Q4 earnings.
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Thank you for your kind words and good analysis. Highly appreciated and insightful even for me, the interviewer.
I have a cash secured OTM June 2023 short put position which is indicated to be down about $22 today compared to the stock price gain of about $16 at the moment. This position should always move in some fraction relative to the share price. Very strange.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
You don't need a strategy when you're a market maker and a player in the market.
I am not sure what you mean by theoretical price. If you are talking about plugging in the IV from a website in a formula to get the options prices, that's not how the market works. Every option can have some what different IV, and it's just a quoting mechanism.
Time to eat away at the 730 wall!
The goal posts got moved progressively back through the 730s. A little room to run to 735 is there for the taking.
The goal posts got moved progressively back through the 730s. A little room to run to 735 is there for the taking.
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