The stock doing a clear peak at 760 which coincides with a call wall at 760 makes it clear that is the target for end of trading on Friday. There's also a decent call wall at 750, though there's also puts at 750 too. I'd say 758-759 is where we close. Maybe we get a similar result to last week where some FOMO buying at the end of day on Friday pushes it a bit over 760.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The stock doing a clear peak at 760 which coincides with a call wall at 760 makes it clear that is the target for end of trading on Friday. There's also a decent call wall at 750, though there's also puts at 750 too. I'd say 758-759 is where we close. Maybe we get a similar result to last week where some FOMO buying at the end of day on Friday pushes it a bit over 760.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
For once, it would be nice for the devious market forces to pull TSLA up, instead of always pulling it down.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Lars takes an in depth look at BYD, how they compare to Tesla, and further expounds upon defining their market segment.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I said I'll-believe-it-when-I-see-it last time this was announced: (Jun. 17, 2019)
Mobileye will trial robotaxis in Israel next year
Intel's Mobileye will begin trials of robotaxis next year in Israel ahead of launching a full service in the country before expanding globally.
This latest "re-announcement" is more likely than not a cynical PR response by Mobileye to this scathing Youtube takedown during the Labor Day holiday:
How Mobileye is getting CRUSHED by Tesla | "TMIO Tesla" (Sep 5, 2021)
The takedown thesis is:
- Mobileye doesn't have the direct contact with its end-users necessary to collect the huge volumes of data required for machine learning
- Auto OEMs will always be years behind in delivering Mobileye's latest tech
- Mobileye's business model is a recipe for a corporate 'death-march'
Last edited:
That's about what I did late 2018, never again! I didn't understand the company as well back then plus the risk was higher I think. (Either that or I'm just getting use to this nonsense).
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I really love Rob Maurer's common-sense ability to debunk so much of the idiotic Tesla hype that is being constantly created from thin air and speculation. However, on this point I think he is shockingly blind to what's going on. Maybe his constant stream of successes in de-bunking the typical Tesla hype has given him the over-confidence he feel he needs to poo-poo the theory that ICE makers are using the chip shortage to cover for the beginning of the collapse of ICE sales.
And looking at it from the ICE business perspective, it's critical for those companies totally dependent upon ICE revenues to delay the perception that it's all over for ICE for as long as physically possible. Because when this becomes a mass-realization is when their real pain begins. That's when the perceived value of their ICE products plummets. And everyone knows you can't make a profit when the value is below the cost to produce and that lower volumes increase the cost to produce. Logically, their only hope is to keep inventory limited and prices high as sales decline for as long as possible. And the best way to do that is to continue use the chip shortage to create the narrative that new cars are in short supply rather than letting the perception that ICE cars are "so yesterday" run rampant.
This is not an "either/or" situation, there are shades of grey. Cathie Wood never said the entire decline in sales was due solely to buyers not wanting to buy ICE, merely that the early signs are starting to show up. And Rob needs to backtrack on this before he blemishes his reputation as an excellent Tesla analyst any further.
Last edited:
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Perhaps. But this amount of volume feels a LOT more difficult to swallow than what we've see the last 3-4 months. I don't see MM's being able to nail it so precisely now that the summer doldrums are coming to an end.
Let's not forget the spectre of 3Q and 4Q earnings breakouts make it far riskier to deeply short just to make a few extra bucks in weekly options.
In general I do agree, with each week as we get closer to Q3 P/D's, it get's harder for MM's to get the stock to close exactly where they want it because volume will pick up and FOMO really starts to set in....which we all saw with Friday's close.
But I'm really looking for a signal on significant volume picking up. This morning started off great but then we lost the volume. When I see a 30+ million traded volume day at minimum, then I'll know big money is moving in and that's when I expect MM's to get out of the way completely and let TSLA do it's usual hard rally for a few weeks before they try to step back in.
I think we tend to forget how much volume used to be this stock, even just 6-8 months ago. 20-25 million shares traded is still relatively easy for MM's to control when you think of how much volume used to be in this stock. We were seeing days of 40-50 million shares traded all the time......now it's very rare to see a 30 million traded day.
Last edited:
I see it as a hold and buy time to pivot strategy happening. If they can keep the price below the next TA/algo breakout point in the 770s, and with the volume right now it seems they can, holding close to 760 will allow time to pivot and hit the breakout point where they will work have to find a new resistance number below 800. Rinse and repeat over and over until a catalyst event happens positive or negative and it can't be contained.
Given how often it should be replaced, there is a case to be made for break.BTW, I think you have been reading the writings of too many Americans because the word is "brake" fluid, not "break" fluid. This particular misspelling drives me batty for some reason. As someone who has English as their second language, you should know better than this!
shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
As someone who isn't just dealing with the theoretical, I just hit 170k miles, let me assure you Tesla will have plenty of revenue streams from their fleet in the years ahead. Just from supercharging alone, it's a small steady drip of income. The more cars our there the more it will turn into a torrent. I'm one of the lucky ones with an early Model 3 with unlimited data, but that's yet another one for about everything coming out now. And don't get me started with FSD subscriptions, they haven't gotten a nickel out of me for FSD but I assume that eventually there will come a day when that changes for plenty of us as well. Probably minimum 70k miles have been with EAP (enhanced auto pilot) on, news misinformation about it makes me livid.
I've had two windshields replaced (been spectacularly unlucky) and in the next couple of months plan to take the car in for a host of things (brake fluid (original pads still at 70%), possibly battery coolant, possibly shocks although they feel fine but it will be at 200k, etc. My aim for the car is 400k at which point I'll reluctantly turn it over to my teenage son, probably for a Cybertruck. The car's handling and driver assists have allowed me to avoid all the times (knock on wood) that somebody tried to crumple some sheetmetal, but that could easily be different.
A major difference here is any profit in all this stuff is going directly to Tesla, not the lion's share to a dealer.
(And, if you're interested, lifetime efficiency is 235kWh/mile. Degradation # bounces around so much I don't ****ing worry about it but call it 7%, and I haven't once been left stranded on the side of the road. Car has NOT been perfect, merely superb.)
What do you mean they are covering the collapse of ICE with chip shortage? Are you suggesting there's no chip shortage? And if there's a real chip shortage, how can you tell if it's used to cover up anything?
Ah yes BYD. The company I bring up to Nio investors and they are like BYWho? They delivered over 60k in a month. They are the true competition in China. Nio is like a speck compared to BYD but guess when you are not publicly traded in the US no one cares.
It's actually very plausible and logical that ICE is using the chip shortage as an excuse to limit production to keep inventory tight from stopping production in 2020 which led a incredibly tight inventory and thus, be able to sell nothing but the highest trims and keep their already low margins from collapsing.
Just remember, ICE auto makers are getting data from their dealerships about how many people come through the doors. They have an idea of organic demand. I personally believe and I think ICE auto makers are very aware....that organic demand is not good. Their smartest play is to continue to use the chip shortage as an excuse to limit production and keep prices high. Because the alternative is that they get production rates back up to normal and oversupply the lackluster demand and then are left in a situation loads of inventory of ICE vehicles on their lots as the US makes a huge shift to EV's.
If I were running a ICE auto maker.....this is exactly what I would be doing and they got a very good and plausible excuse in the chip shortage.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
There have been 18.3k Puts traded at the 750 Strike already today. We'll have to wait until 7a.m. ET tomorrow to find out how many of those combine to form the Open Interest, but hopefully there is a "Put Wall" forming now at 750 which will discourage MMs from further shenanigans on Friday.
EDIT:
Now 21.0k Puts traded at the 750 strike as of 12:22 p.m. ET (a rate of ~2k/hr)
Cheers!
EDIT:
Now 21.0k Puts traded at the 750 strike as of 12:22 p.m. ET (a rate of ~2k/hr)
Cheers!
Last edited:
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
You ever heard of riding something for all it's worth?
It appears to me that ICE makers are shutting down plants more quickly and dramatically than a simple chip shortage would indicate. The chip shortage is real but it is not dramatic enough to cause what we are seeing. In time I think this will be even more clear.
The only hope for ICE makers in the transition to EV's is to be able to sell ONLY their highest trim ICE vehicles with the best margin....which gives them the best hope of being able to survive the impending financial crunch they're about to experience (their odds still aren't good)
There's a huge incentive for them to keep inventory incredibly tight right now.
So what you are saying is there's a collusion between Bosch and all these chip makers to say how they are in short supply on conference calls, but actually sell them all to ICE makers who horde them and not putting them into production cars, and continue to peddle the notion that they don't have any chips but the reality is there's no demand.
Because the shortage is real..Unless Elon is smoking again by literally calling out companies on twitter.
When you are at saturation and produce at max capacity , a 10% shortage is a 10% shutdown. Tesla over order because it's a growth company, others don't over order.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
