Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

This and I wonder when they will be building them with a structural pack (with 2170s or 4680s). I just ordered a Model Y and the estimated deliver date was initially April. Not sure if this will change based on how Texas ramps but if I am waiting until at least April anyways I might as well wait until they are building them with the structural pack and possibly 4680s.

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but the structural pack doesn't have to go hand in hand with 4680 Cells............Tesla could be create a new 2170 pack that fits into the structural frame for the time being.

Also, you know it's going to make zero difference if you get a Y with 2170's or 4680's/structural pack right? Tesla is simply going to put less cells in the 4680 Model Y to match the exact specs of the current 2170 Model Y for the same price. There will be no difference to you.

 

[JusRelax]

Well yes it matters lol. Understanding logic and a dynamic means a lot.

Also, growing trend of TMC'rs switching to selling calls now.......I sure hope for all your guys sake Tesla doesn't come out of nowhere with a split

I think it definitely matters. Here are some possible answers to your question:

1. Volatility rules over beginner options sellers. I.e. - on Monday, when SP went to $805 after a beat, some freaked out call sellers may have been panic-buying their calls back, afraid to lose their shares
2. For this specific week, there are still a few other events happening this week that call buyers might be hoping could push the stock higher than normal (shareholder meeting, expectations of FSD Beta 10.2 release, expectations of Giga Berlin fair).
3. Greed rules over beginner and/or other short-term options buyers. Never underestimate the power of potentially making millions of dollars on a lottery ticket to make peoplpe throw their money away.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Good lord. What frustrating price action.

Here's what I'm hoping comes out of Annual Shareholders meeting on Thursday - Elon gets on, says they're shooting for 1 million deliveries in 2021 thanks to Giga Texas hitting the ground sprinting followed by Zach announcing a 2:1 stock split..........end of shareholder meeting - Total time of shareholder meeting = 2 mins.

 

[Gigapress]

Watched it. Seemed like mostly happy horse dung from a consultant pumping his own game/book/diet/whatever. If you need a valet team you have a good place to start being less wrong IMO.

I too could've done without the consulting salesmanship, but alas, that seems to be necessary to win any business in consulting.

However, if we can set that aside, what really counts is the content. Is it accurate? Is it useful?

To me, his case for credibility is strengthened by:
1) He not only worked at Tesla, but was in the "Agile at Tesla" team.
2) What he is saying aligns with what we've heard from Elon himself, Munro Live (especially following Sandy + Corey's day at SpaceX) and from other former employees of Tesla and SpaceX who've done public interviews, but with a lot of new detail and color.
3) The information provided offers a reasonable, concrete, ground-level explanation for how Tesla manages to invest capital so efficiently, innovate and adapt so quickly, and avoid the pride/ego/politics/death-by-powerpoint/bureaucracy that slows down so many other companies.

Re: Valet
I think the rationale is that the cost of valet is less than the opportunity cost of employees wasting time finding parking and walking to the building. I currently work here Boeing Everett Factory - Wikipedia which is similar in size to Tesla's factories, and let me tell you, the parking situation here (before work from home) is a nightmare. On day shift it takes usually 10-20 minutes to go from arriving on campus to reaching your desk. Each way. Valet at Tesla likely has a real-time digital map of where everyone's car is located and where open parking spaces are available, and they might even have software providing optimal routing for reducing overall traffic in the parking lot. Individuals finding their own parking could not do this as effectively if they tried.

 

[wombat9]

Good lord. What frustrating price action.

Definitely. Good exercise in being patient.

 

[cusetownusa]

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but the structural pack doesn't have to go hand in hand with 4680 Cells............Tesla could be create a new 2170 pack that fits into the structural frame for the time being.

Also, you know it's going to make zero difference if you get a Y with 2170's or 4680's/structural pack right? Tesla is simply going to put less cells in the 4680 Model Y to match the exact specs of the current 2170 Model Y for the same price. There will be no difference to you.

Right, but doesn't the structural pack (and 4680) reduce the vehicle weight by about 300lbs. And Elon mentioned something about the weight being more centered because less cells would be needed. Both things should improve handling. I would also like to know if the 4680 will have faster charging rates as well.

But overall I get what you are saying. Will also be interesting if the Texas made Ys will be an improvement over Fremont in terms of fit/finish, paint, etc. I am assuming they have learned a lot since setting up the Y line in Fremont and are also using more advanced paint shop, etc.

 

[Todd Burch]

Stock is where we were last Thursday during most of the day's trading, before the P&D report. As if Q3 didn't even happen...

Elon & the Tesla Team could solve all the world's problems and pull Jesus himself out of a frunk and we'd only see a +0.16% price action.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Right, but doesn't the structural pack (and 4680) reduce the vehicle weight by about 300lbs. And Elon mentioned something about the weight being more centered because less cells would be needed. Both things should improve handling. I would also like to know if the 4680 will have faster charging rates as well.

But overall I get what you are saying. Will also be interesting if the Texas made Ys will be an improvement over Fremont in terms of fit/finish, paint, etc. I am assuming they have learned a lot since setting up the Y line in Fremont and are also using more advanced paint shop, etc.

I think you're very much in your own head. The handling you mention is an unknown you can't possibly know. The handling might be worse because there's significantly less batteries in the car which means less grounding of the car into turns. It's all subjective.

As for charging right, I can practically guarantee you there will be ZERO difference between a Fremont Y and a Texas Y for at least 1-2 years and even then, likely what will happen is Fremont shuts down for a quarter to get updated with 4680 cells. Tesla is not going to openly sell a different Model Y from Fremont verses Texas. That's a logistics nightmare

 

[stealthyc]

I would guess that people are putting their money into stocks that got hit really hard to take advantage of today's recovery. TSLA isn't one of those.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Stock is where we were last Thursday during most of the day's trading, before the P&D report. As if Q3 didn't even happen...

Elon & the Tesla Team could solve all the world's problems and pull Jesus himself out of a frunk and we'd only see a +0.16% price action.

Elon and Tesla just gotta say those 2 words - stock split

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla is not going to openly sell a different Model Y from Fremont verses Texas. That's a logistics nightmare

Unless it is a different trim level. For example maybe a Model Y Performance Plus? (Unlikely but possible.)

 

[cusetownusa]

I think you're very much in your own head. The handling you mention is an unknown you can't possibly know. The handling might be worse because there's significantly less batteries in the car which means less grounding of the car into turns. It's all subjective.

As for charging right, I can practically guarantee you there will be ZERO difference between a Fremont Y and a Texas Y for at least 1-2 years and even then, likely what will happen is Fremont shuts down for a quarter to get updated with 4680 cells. Tesla is not going to openly sell a different Model Y from Fremont verses Texas. That's a logistics nightmare

You might be right about the charging but Elon did say the handling would be better. If I remember it correctly it was discussed in the interview he had with Sandy Munro.

I won't be getting my car until at least April anyway so we should know a lot more then.

 

[EVNow]

Stock is where we were last Thursday during most of the day's trading, before the P&D report. As if Q3 didn't even happen...

Elon & the Tesla Team could solve all the world's problems and pull Jesus himself out of a frunk and we'd only see a +0.16% price action.

Will have to wait for upgrades or a whale deciding to buy.

 

[ammulder]

As for charging right, I can practically guarantee you there will be ZERO difference between a Fremont Y and a Texas Y for at least 1-2 years and even then, likely what will happen is Fremont shuts down for a quarter to get updated with 4680 cells. Tesla is not going to openly sell a different Model Y from Fremont verses Texas. That's a logistics nightmare

I'm not as sure. What if Fremont produces only the SR+ with CATL LFP batteries and Texas produces the AWD and P with 2170s/4680s, or some split like that?

If Austin battery manufacturing gets off the ground, it would be a little odd to ship batteries from Austin to Fremont just so both factories produced identical vehicles. Plus, Fremont doesn't do Model Y front castings yet, does it? I think there will be differences. Producing different trims at the different factories could avoid that being a problem.

 

[Gigapress]

I think you're very much in your own head. The handling you mention is an unknown you can't possibly know. The handling might be worse because there's significantly less batteries in the car which means less grounding of the car into turns. It's all subjective.

As for charging right, I can practically guarantee you there will be ZERO difference between a Fremont Y and a Texas Y for at least 1-2 years and even then, likely what will happen is Fremont shuts down for a quarter to get updated with 4680 cells. Tesla is not going to openly sell a different Model Y from Fremont verses Texas. That's a logistics nightmare

I thought Elon had said at one point that the structural battery pack will noticeably improve handling by increasing torsional rigidity (i.e. chassis is less floppy) and decreasing polar moment of inertia (i.e. car needs less turning force to steer).

Also, all else being held equal, less weight improves acceleration, turning, braking and endurance.

 

[Paul_SF]

Elon and Tesla just gotta say those 2 words - stock split

Maybe they should just say they will bring to vote the recommendation to split 1 to 100, so they take care of any other need for a split for the next couple of decades.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I thought Elon had said at one point that the structural battery pack will noticeably improve handling by increasing torsional rigidity (i.e. car is less floppy) and decreasing polar moment of inertia (i.e. car needs less turning force to steer).

Also, all else being held equal, less weight improves acceleration, turning, braking and endurance.

Well my initial response was that I think Tesla would create a 2170 structural pack. So you'd still get the benefits of that, but 4680 Cell's aren't needed for that.

 

[EVMeister]

Maybe the NASDAQ needs to go red so Tesla can rise properly into the green.

 

[Gigapress]

Well my initial response was that I think Tesla would create a 2170 structural pack. So you'd still get the benefits of that, but 4680 Cell's aren't needed for that.

That may be true. I don't know if 2170s (or 1865s) are suitable for structural pack or not. As far as I know Tesla has not announced anything about this. I can't think of a reason why the idea wouldn't work, but the devil is in the details.

 

[Todd Burch]

Maybe the NASDAQ needs to go red so Tesla can rise properly into the green.

No, I think the problem is just that Tesla delivered too many cars in Q3.