Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

thanks lodger

i still don’t fully understand why GF1 expansion was brought to nearly standstill. some contemplated it was infrastructure/water.
batt day made it clear that the 4680, once proven, has better cost/benefit across nearly every stat over the 18650 and 2170.

still it seems odd that not much, if any, is mentioned about future GF1 uses/development

What I've always heard is they can't get people to work there-- and putting Austin and Berlin GFs in places people actually want to live/work is a direct reaction to that fact.

 

[PeterJA]

Cant they still make what I will call a pan and that be structural and the front and rear castings attach to that. Then place the 2170s pack in that. Isnt that what is basically done today?

Sure, but that's not what was meant by "structural pack" (or pack of structural cells). A pack of structural cells is lighter weight because the cell cans do double duty as car structure and containers for the cell contents. A structural pack of tabless 4680 cells probably has other advantages related to cooling and decreased electrical resistance of the cells.

 

[elasalle]

Fire FUD ...
Racial FUD ...

run out of ammo, time for SP to begin climbing prior to Share holder meet

Coming items this week
.Share holder Meet
.FSD drop
.Octo-Giga Fest Germany

added 2 more 900 calls ...(1 Sept 22, 1 jan 24) ..selection based on $$ available.

 

[Artful Dodger]

i still don’t fully understand why GF1 expansion was brought to nearly standstill.

Elon addressed this directly several years ago during the time of "production hell". He said that Tesla wouldn't invest in further expansion at Giga Nevada until Panasonic increased their yield rates.

IIRC, at the Panasonic was publicly claiming about a 35 Gwh/yr capacity, but their annual production was closer to 21 GW/hr. This was about the time the "Lemur" was introduced with the mid-size pac, but before the SR+ was produced.

Note well that "Bty Day" was the direct consequence of Panasonic's own inability or unwillingness to ramp bty cell production sufficiently. Now CATL is Tesla's largest Bty supplier and LFP batteries are for sale in North America.

Stodgy, ponderous Management leads to forgone opportunity.

 

[wombat9]

Holy F***! We are green! And Nasdaq is only up 1.8%.
TSLA is even 7 USD up compared to last Friday before the blow out P/D numbers came out.

 

[redan]

Tesla reportedly paid off their $1.4B loan in China

It Looks Like Tesla Paid Off Its $1.4 Billion China Loan Agreement For Giga Shanghai Early - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! In December 2019, Tesla was granted a $1.4 billion loan from Chinese banks for Giga Shanghai. The five-year loan was partially used to roll over previous debts. The rest of the money would go ... [continued]

cleantechnica.com

Elon confirms:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1445450077225426948

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wow that first 15 mins of trading………gee I wonder if there’s shenanigans

Yes, but you misspelled JPMorgan Chase.

I'd like to see a correlation statistic between the price of oil and their options trading. They seem quite buoyed by $75/bbl oil.

Money to burn.

 

[jkirkwood001]

I have bugged others about posting on Tesla's sales compared to other EV manufacturers. I personally don't care about Tesla "beating" other EVs. I personally care about Tesla displacing more ICEs off the roads.

We've seen some statistics - usually presented as text or in a table - but not the historical trends I think matter most. I absorb better visually. So I put a chart together: Global light vehicle sales.

This chart includes the top 12 sellers from 2020 compiled by the sources at bottom, plus Tesla Model 3 and Model Y (with sales labels). I tried to colour code by manufacturer - if you have a hard time deciphering, the legend lists the model in order of 2020 sales.

Obviously I'm looking for Tesla models to begin climbing past these fossils until they are top selling models globally. If any other EVs come close to the top 20 of global sales, power to them - I'll add them.

Please let me know any suggestions or corrections.

Sources:

The world’s best-selling cars | Autocar

2020 was memorable for all the wrong reasons – and the pandemic caused ructions to the car market as well, creating some winners as well as losers

www.autocar.co.uk

Best-selling car models worldwide 2023 | Statista

Three Toyota models were in the five most sold cars in the world, including one of these models recording over one million sales. Tesla also made the ranking.

www.statista.com

The world’s best-selling cars | Auto Express

We’re very familiar with the top selling models in the UK, but what about the global car market? Here are the world’s best-selling cars...

www.autoexpress.co.uk

https://www.marklines.com/en/vehicle_sales

World 2019: Discover the Top 1300 best-selling cars

The Toyota Corolla celebrates 15 straight years as the world’s best-seller. Consult 60 years of Worldwide Historical Data here. 29/04 update: Now with the Top 15 groups and Top 30 brands. 24/…

bestsellingcarsblog.com

Focus2move| Best selling cars in the World - Top 100 in 2017

Best selling cars in the World in the 2017 reports the global success of SUVs models with Toyota Rav4 and Volkswagen Tiguan escalating positions on top. The event of the year was the second place of Ford F-Series fourth model ever up 1 million

www.focus2move.com

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yes, but you misspelled JPMorgan Chase.

I'd like to see a correlation statistic between the price of oil and their options trading. They seem quite buoyed by $75/bbl oil.

Money to burn.

It's so obvious considering JPMorgan's PT for TSLA compared to all of the others. What are they at, $210 PT? They don't even care to try and appear to be non-bias

 

[Artful Dodger]

Won't matter...can't keep a lid on this. Macro's are helping today.

Lol, you called the "top" within 5 minutes:

Here's the deal: certain Options Market Makers (MMs) are playing with "play money". They don't have to locate shares before the sell them. This violation of the law of supply'n'demand means the the SP doesn't react rationally to trading, because one side has effectively a zero inelasticity of supply issue.

I know, because a took 1 micro-economics course at university. When I was 18.

Yes, this is so obvious that even school kids can figure this out. Ironic that our actual economist choose to remain silent on the topic.

Captured by the System. It must take years of higher Education to get there.

 

[jhm]

Elon confirms:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1445450077225426948

Ouch! Is Musk taking a swipe at GM or the Federal Government?

 

[thx1139]

Sure, but that's not what was meant by "structural pack" (or pack of structural cells). A pack of structural cells is lighter weight because the cell cans do double duty as car structure and containers for the cell contents. A structural pack of tabless 4680 cells probably has other advantages related to cooling and decreased electrical resistance of the cells.

Understood, but what I am more concerned about is how the assembly line and robots change. For Austin Y production dont want the required robots for front to be non-cast version. If they can build Y's in Austin with front and rear casts but with some sort of 2170 pack in the middle then the impact should be minimal.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Lol, you called the "top" within 5 minutes:

View attachment 718140

Here's the deal: certain Options Market Makers (MMs) are playing with "play money". They don't have to locate shares before the sell them. This violation of the law of supply'n'demand means the the SP doesn't react rationally to trading, because one side has effectively a zero inelasticity of supply issue.

I know, because a took 1 micro-economics course at university. When I was 18.

Yes, this is so obvious that even school kids can figure this out. Ironic that our actual economist choose to remain silent on the topic.

Captured by the System. It must take years of higher Education to get there.

Before anyone gets discouraged, just remember we have actual fundamentals that are going to start kicking in with Q3 earnings.

I've mentioned before, but think of P/E has car market. There is exponentially more demand for a car at 60k verses 90k and exponentially more demand for a car that's 30k verses 60k, and so on.

Think of P/E on Wall St as the same thing. There's exponentially more funds that will buy in at P/E of 200 verses a P/E of 400 and exponentially more demand for TSLA shares at a P/E of 100 verses a P/E of 200.

As long as Tesla keeps executing so amazingly well on their earnings, this dynamic is going to eventually force this type of behavior from MM's to stop. There will simply be too much buying volume.

 

[jhm]

I have bugged others about posting on Tesla's sales compared to other EV manufacturers. I personally don't care about Tesla "beating" other EVs. I personally care about Tesla displacing more ICEs off the roads.

We've seen some statistics - usually presented as text or in a table - but not the historical trends I think matter most. I absorb better visually. So I put a chart together: Global light vehicle sales.

This chart includes the top 12 sellers from 2020 compiled by the sources at bottom, plus Tesla Model 3 and Model Y (with sales labels). I tried to colour code by manufacturer - if you have a hard time deciphering, the legend lists the model in order of 2020 sales.

Obviously I'm looking for Tesla models to begin climbing past these fossils until they are top selling models globally. If any other EVs come close to the top 20 of global sales, power to them - I'll add them.

Please let me know any suggestions or corrections.
View attachment 718133

Sources:

The world’s best-selling cars | Autocar

2020 was memorable for all the wrong reasons – and the pandemic caused ructions to the car market as well, creating some winners as well as losers

www.autocar.co.uk

Best-selling car models worldwide 2023 | Statista

Three Toyota models were in the five most sold cars in the world, including one of these models recording over one million sales. Tesla also made the ranking.

www.statista.com

The world’s best-selling cars | Auto Express

We’re very familiar with the top selling models in the UK, but what about the global car market? Here are the world’s best-selling cars...

www.autoexpress.co.uk

https://www.marklines.com/en/vehicle_sales

World 2019: Discover the Top 1300 best-selling cars

The Toyota Corolla celebrates 15 straight years as the world’s best-seller. Consult 60 years of Worldwide Historical Data here. 29/04 update: Now with the Top 15 groups and Top 30 brands. 24/…

bestsellingcarsblog.com

Focus2move| Best selling cars in the World - Top 100 in 2017

Best selling cars in the World in the 2017 reports the global success of SUVs models with Toyota Rav4 and Volkswagen Tiguan escalating positions on top. The event of the year was the second place of Ford F-Series fourth model ever up 1 million

www.focus2move.com

This definitely helps to put volume aspirations into perspective. For example, Musk believes that demand for the Model Y could reach 1.5M. So that puts the Model Y aspiration in league with the Toyota Corolla. Moreover, the ascent of the Toyota RAV4 may help confirm that demand for a crossover like Model Y could indeed exceed 1M.

 

[jeewee3000]

Ouch! Is Musk taking a swipe at GM or the Federal Government?

I read this the same way, as in "Tesla doesn't need a bailout, instead of (insert "competition")"

 

[Artful Dodger]

In last night's Tesla Daily, Rob mentions a rumor - sourced from TMC - about the status of Model Y production preparations. I don't remember seeing it posted on this thread, but the gist was that things are moving along swimmingly. This, combined with a Bill Wright tweet that appeared to me and others as a cryptic reference to the Model Y in Texas, makes me very excited for the Giga Texas event this Thursday.

Let's combine Bill Wright's cryptic tweet with Elon's equally OTW tweet:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@SPACEdotcom Maxwell was incredible" / Twitter

Can we dream that Fremont/Kato Road will have a supply of cells sufficient to inagurate production?

Elon said some time ago that Giga Berlin production would intially be supported from Kato Rd. Later, he said there would be 2 lines, with the addition of a 2170 bty line.

Could it be that Giga Texas will be the first to production with a 4680/Model Y and it's coming before the 2170s? This pure speculation, but those new cells have to go somewhere...

Cheers!

 

[lafrisbee]

I think you're very much in your own head. The handling you mention is an unknown you can't possibly know. The handling might be worse because there's significantly less batteries in the car which means less grounding of the car into turns. It's all subjective.

As for charging right, I can practically guarantee you there will be ZERO difference between a Fremont Y and a Texas Y for at least 1-2 years and even then, likely what will happen is Fremont shuts down for a quarter to get updated with 4680 cells. Tesla is not going to openly sell a different Model Y from Fremont verses Texas. That's a logistics nightmare

I am beginning to think you know less about physics than I do. So we both know "not much." Try and stay with stock issues. I find your posts on that topic worthwhile.
The less mass in a car the less it needs to be "ground"ed. If you decrease the downward force without decreasing the mass (ex. spoiler) then you've increased the "grounding." But when you decrease the mass you've decreased the problem. The ratio of reduction in mass versus "grounding" is one in which performance improves when weight is removed because the wheels are not 100% or more efficient at "grounding" to the road because the mass of the vehicle is greater. If it was then heavier cars could go quicker through turns than lighter cars with all else (tires) being equal.

You argue your position with terms like "subjective" and "might be." And you can "practically guarantee" something you can not.
And I can practically guarantee it might not be a logistics nightmare. It's all "subjective." Elon would find it "quaint" that someone would think he would have a logistics nightmare over such a non-problem. The vast majority of the other Car manufacturers (even EV's) offer various options.
My Mother's old 1964.5 Mustang Convertible had the 8 cylinder 289 instead of the standard 6 cylinder. It was not a logistical nightmare even before computers.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I am beginning to think you know less about physics than I do. So we both know "not much." Try and stay with stock issues. I find your posts on that topic worthwhile.
The less mass in a car the less it needs to be "ground"ed. If you decrease the downward force without decreasing the mass (ex. spoiler) then you've increased the "grounding." But when you decrease the mass you've decreased the problem. The ratio of reduction in mass versus "grounding" is one in which performance improves when weight is removed because the wheels are not 100% or more efficient at "grounding" to the road because the mass of the vehicle is greater. If it was then heavier cars could go quicker through turns than lighter cars with all else (tires) being equal.

You argue your position with terms like "subjective" and "might be." And you can "practically guarantee" something you can not.
And I can practically guarantee it might not be a logistics nightmare. It's all "subjective." Elon would find it "quaint" that someone would think he would have a logistics nightmare over such a non-problem. The vast majority of the other Car manufacturers (even EV's) offer various options.
My Mother's old 1964.5 Mustang Convertible had the 8 cylinder 289 instead of the standard 6 cylinder. It was not a logistical nightmare even before computers.

Ok? Never claimed I'm even remotely a expert on car physics. My response was simply that people get fixated on having a Texas-made Model Y. Until Tesla actually announces that there is some sort of "trim" that would exclusive to a Texas-made Y, then the logical assumption is there will be no difference spec-wise between a Fremont made Y and Texas made Y.

As for handling of the car, Elon can say a 4680 Model Y handles better and yet there be barely any difference to a regular person. People can easily make a big deal out of something where if they get put into a blind test.......they wouldn't even know the difference.

 

[fiveten]

Ouch! Is Musk taking a swipe at GM or the Federal Government?

Maybe a GoT reference.... A Lanister always pays his debts.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Ouch! Is Musk taking a swipe at GM or the Federal Government?

I'm pretty sure that's Elon reading your posting here today and transitioning entirely to Game of Thrones metaphors. Too much coincidence if you ask me.