Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[riverFox]

When I write in orange I'm writing as a mod. Texts in black are contributions as a regular forum participant. I'm not trying to censor posts about Gordon, Fred, Lora and others which are newsworthy, but it's the subsequent flood of derision that is getting really old and adds no value to this thread. See all the Fred bashing we've had today.

Until people stop linking to electrek trash in thread he should be bashed. Apparently not enough people understand.

 

[Singuy]

Sounds like last year's 'Mission T' didn't pan out and they're back to the drawing board..

Volkswagen Group launches 'Mission T' to take on Tesla

It's all part of the brand's electric future

www.drive.com.au

The time to produce a model 3 I believe shocked the industry. They didn't expect Tesla to be printing cars significantly faster than toyota. But that's what happened when the guy runs the other company that prints a raptor engine every 48h.

The time it takes to make a car directly correlates to profit margin. Car manufacturers are very high revenue companies. Volkswagen made 20 billion dollars more than Apple in 2019 from a revenue standpoint. So if there's a way to print cars at 3-5x the speed, car manufactures can get tech or beyond valuations overnight. I believe this is what is getting the sp to rise. Big guns are changing the way they see Tesla as its a tech manufacturing company 2.0. The production line IS the tech.

 

[dhanson865]

I'm going to have to figure out how to actually treat some quantity of my shares as sellable. I haven't figured out how to do this. I keep buying shares, often with liquid funds with the thought that it's better than 0.0000001% interest, but I can never convince myself to sell because it's always going higher any day now and selling today would be a bad decision in xx months or years. It's probably related to some shares I sold in 2013 & 2014 that I need to just get over...

Perfect example is as I look over my numbers for ordering a MY, I want to put $12K down to get the monthly where I want it, but then think "I'd be much better off buying TSLA with that $12k and paying Tesla 2.5% on it". But, I realize once I buy those shares, I'd inevitably consider them core, HODL, and not see the money again (for years)...

I'm there with you. I could have bought a Model 3 in 2018, or 2019, or 2020, or 2021. But that 2018 model 3 would have been $50,000 then and missing out on a 12x gain since then, something north of a half million dollar model 3 if I had bought it instead of TSLA.

And this isn't a what if, I literally went all in on TSLA instead of buying a car.

I'm literally making that choice every time there is a price change or news about any tax credit/rebate that would affect me. For now I'm still putting it into TSLA. At some point when I get that loan on a Model 3 or Y I'll be buying less shares per month/quarter until that loan is paid off.

And I know it's going to go up from here so that is going to be one super expensive car. But I'm not immortal, I may have to give up some profits to buy my next car or two. Maybe TSLA keeps going up for the rest of my life.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Joe Manchin just put the brakes on the Clean Energy plans, again yesterday. I never saw this guy flipping on the matter, seems like a selfish holdout to the core.

"In recent days, as White House officials were trying to forge a deal, Mr. Manchin told them he would not support any legislation that includes a clean electricity program. Mr. Manchin, whose state is a major coal producer and who has financial ties to the coal industry, has said that abandoning fossil fuels will harm the country’s energy independence and would make climate change worse."

Democrats Weigh Carbon Tax After Manchin Rejects Key Climate Provision (Published 2021)

Faced with the likely demise of a central pillar of President Biden’s agenda, the White House and outraged lawmakers are scrambling to find alternatives.

www.nytimes.com

Big Auto is probably furious with Manchin, as the EV incentives were really handouts to them via the PHEV rebates. That whole thing needed to die - it was fatally flawed from its inception.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Message from the Ceo of volkswagen

Am I the only one that finds it odd that Herbert Diess would post this company memo on LinkedIn (for all to see) as opposed to an internal email to only VW employees? It is as if Diess's intended audience is not VW employees, but others outside the corporation (i.e. the news media, their suppliers and distributors, and their competitors (although clearly not Tesla). Really he is pleading to anyone that will listen. They are good this time. Honest.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Tesla Introduces Nationwide Electricity Tariff in Germany Starting October 18

In the spring of 2021, Tesla began offering its electricity rates to some Powerwall owners in Germany. Together with the construction of an automobile plant, the company is preparing for a large-scale entry into the German electricity market with its own equipment and software.

www.tesmanian.com

TL; DR: "Together with the construction of an automobile plant, the company is preparing for a large-scale entry into the German electricity market with its own equipment and software. Tesla and its partner, Octopus Energy, are reported to want to introduce a nationwide electricity tariff from October 18."

"In the medium term, Tesla and Octopus Energy want to combine a lot of Powerwalls into virtual power plants. If there is a shortage of electricity in the control energy market, Tesla is allowed to feed some of the electricity from the Powerwalls into the public grid, and buyers receive a share of the income."


My fellow Tesla Enthusiasts; we are at the outset of some delicious energy revenues. Bon Apetit.

 

[Tim S]

Big Auto is probably furious with Manchin, as the EV incentives were really handouts to them via the PHEV rebates. That whole thing needed to die - it was fatally flawed from its inception.

I believe this does not affect the EV incentives. It's a different section of the bill. Manchin is against aiding the transition from coal and natural gas to solar and wind. He still likes electricity.

So this is just bad for the human race in general, not EVs specifically.

 

[bkp_duke]

Am I the only one that finds it odd that Herbert Diess would post this company memo on LinkedIn (for all to see) as opposed to an internal email to only VW employees? It is as if Diess's intended audience is not VW employees, but others outside the corporation (i.e. the news media, their suppliers and distributors, and their competitors (although clearly not Tesla). Really he is pleading to anyone that will listen. They are good this time. Honest.

Probably applying some pressure on the nay-sayers within the community. It does paint VW in a relatively good light, and they will fall in line since things are public and "popular".

 

[jhm]

I'm going to have to figure out how to actually treat some quantity of my shares as sellable. I haven't figured out how to do this. I keep buying shares, often with liquid funds with the thought that it's better than 0.0000001% interest, but I can never convince myself to sell because it's always going higher any day now and selling today would be a bad decision in xx months or years. It's probably related to some shares I sold in 2013 & 2014 that I need to just get over...

Perfect example is as I look over my numbers for ordering a MY, I want to put $12K down to get the monthly where I want it, but then think "I'd be much better off buying TSLA with that $12k and paying Tesla 2.5% on it". But, I realize once I buy those shares, I'd inevitably consider them core, HODL, and not see the money again (for years)...

I've been using a margin loan to enable me to diversify into other high growth stocks and even pick up a few more Tesla shares when the price was low earlier this year. I love the liquidity, but at some point in time, I have to sell something to pay down the margin. As Tesla is enormously concentrated in my portfolio, Tesla shares become the main assets to be sold to pay back the loan. The catch is I want to make payments at an opportune time in terms of share price.

So here's the approach that I've settled on. I think of it as a Tesla wall. I set a certain limit $X (several million) for my Tesla position. I set a sell limit order to sell a certain number of shares when the price is high enough that after the sell, I still have a position of $X. Thus, I'm allowing my position to advance a few points beyond the wall, but then I sell it back to the wall.

I can change the wall at any point in time and I have only shifted it up. My latest sell was at $838.71. But now my main balance is finally low enough that I've increased the wall such that I won't sell any more until Tesla is above $1000.

I used to be solidly buy-and-hold, but if you hold Tesla long enough, eventually it will make sense to trim a little. One thing I like about this approach is that it does give me latitude to repurchase shares whenever we might see a meaningful pull back. Just like I trim when my position is over $X, I can also buy back if my position falls back below, say 90%×$X. The wall works both ways. I still love backing the Cybertruck up to load up on underpriced shares.

In retirement, we plan to live on a small percentage of our Tesla position. So we'll use the wall and margin account to maintain a growing Tesla position. The amount that we need to live on is a much smaller percentage than I expect Tesla to grow over the next 10 years. So the wall can keep growing!

The important thing is that wall gives me a more disciplined approach growing the Tesla position over time while being able to enjoy the income that such a large position makes possible. It's okay to have your cake and eat it too!

 

[Skryll]

I'm there with you. I could have bought a Model 3 in 2018, or 2019, or 2020, or 2021. But that 2018 model 3 would have been $50,000 then and missing out on a 12x gain since then, something north of a half million dollar model 3 if I had bought it instead of TSLA.

And this isn't a what if, I literally went all in on TSLA instead of buying a car.

I'm literally making that choice every time there is a price change or news about any tax credit/rebate that would affect me. For now I'm still putting it into TSLA. At some point when I get that loan on a Model 3 or Y I'll be buying less shares per month/quarter until that loan is paid off.

And I know it's going to go up from here so that is going to be one super expensive car. But I'm not immortal, I may have to give up some profits to buy my next car or two. Maybe TSLA keeps going up for the rest of my life.

Curageous of you.

We replaced our first gas car in 2015 with a VW eGolf. We traded in our other gas car (Honda Odyssey) for a Model X in 2016 (minimal pay down finance) which confirmed our investment thesis to the point of adding a lot more funds in TSLA shares and seeing through the BS of media coverage at the time - car fire much?

When Model 3 was announced we were super excited, somewhat skeptical but hopeful, and January 2018 finally we took delivery of our Model 3, trading in the VW eGolf, the Model 3 again minimum down financed, and it confirmed that indeed Tesla can make a car as exciting and amazing in 2018 at half the cost of what our Model X cost in 2016.

This again confirmed the thesis to us to not pay off the cars early and instead add more shares, even with some margin and options, options I lost money on for a large part in 2017/2018, but HODL on shares paid off handsomely and some of the option plays end of 2018/2019 really helped regain solid footing. Since then its accumulate slowly, at a faster pace on the downturns, and expect to HODL for the next 5 years of the S curve.

 

[loquitur]

Joe Manchin just put the brakes on the Clean Energy plans, again yesterday. I never saw this guy flipping on the matter, seems like a selfish holdout to the core.

"In recent days, as White House officials were trying to forge a deal, Mr. Manchin told them he would not support any legislation that includes a clean electricity program. Mr. Manchin, whose state is a major coal producer and who has financial ties to the coal industry, has said that abandoning fossil fuels will harm the country’s energy independence and would make climate change worse."

Democrats Weigh Carbon Tax After Manchin Rejects Key Climate Provision (Published 2021)

Faced with the likely demise of a central pillar of President Biden’s agenda, the White House and outraged lawmakers are scrambling to find alternatives.

www.nytimes.com

I keep seeing that Manchin is a "bought" Senator in the tradition of the U.S.
The fact that Exxon has actually crowed about having weekly access to him
is a dead giveaway.

What I don't understand is if Senators have to be purchased, why isn't there
some opposite billionaire who respects the green way (say Elon Musk or Tim Cook)
who can outbid Exxon or the Koch brothers. Just say Joe, how much do you get from
the dark side? (Probably low tens of millions).

Then outbid that, for the sake of the planet.

 

[dhanson865]

Curageous of you.

We replaced our first gas car in 2015 with a VW eGolf. We traded in our other gas car (Honda Odyssey) for a Model X in 2016 (minimal pay down finance) which confirmed our investment thesis to the point of adding a lot more funds in TSLA shares and seeing through the BS of media coverage at the time - car fire much?

When Model 3 was announced we were super excited, somewhat skeptical but hopeful, and January 2018 finally we took delivery of our Model 3, trading in the VW eGolf, the Model 3 again minimum down financed, and it confirmed that indeed Tesla can make a car as exciting and amazing in 2018 at half the cost of what our Model X cost in 2016.

This again confirmed the thesis to us to not pay off the cars early and instead add more shares, even with some margin and options, options I lost money on for a large part in 2017/2018, but HODL on shares paid off handsomely and some of the option plays end of 2018/2019 really helped regain solid footing. Since then its accumulate slowly, at a faster pace on the downturns, and expect to HODL for the next 5 years of the S curve.

Just to be clear I am suffering with a lesser vehicle but it is an EV, I got rid of gas before I went all in on TSLA.

My math was a sub $10,000 used Leaf + $40,000 into TSLA is a better value than $50,000 into a Tesla. It leaves me driving a worse car but I think it'll be worth it later when I pull the trigger with the gains.

I get some free juice at work, charge at 10 cents per kWh at home, so my cost per mile is under 2 cents. All in the name of investing for a better retirement.

 

[astrotoy]

If VW is able to follow Diess and successfully transition to EV's, I would think that VW could be in a position to help fill the gap between the demand for EV's in 2030 that Tesla will not be able to fill. I would guess that between 50 and 100 million cars will be sold in 2030 (the lower number if there is a large move to Robotaxis) and if Tesla can only produce 20M, then there will be several companies that will fill the gap. VW could be one. My guess is that we will see EV nameplates like Ford, Toyota, Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Chevy, Buick, but they will all be owned by Chinese companies. In the US no one will buy Ford or GM because of their huge underfunded pension liabilities, and those companies will sell off their EV production and brand names to Chinese companies or maybe others (much like Volvo to Geely).

If VW's Board doesn't follow Diess and fires him (they almost did not too long ago), then Elon may hire him to be the COO/president of Tesla, similar to the SpaceX President/COO Gwynne Shotwell. Diess is 62, so may only be available for less than a decade. Elon would become Chairman/CEO. I think that would give Elon the time to focus on what he wants to do while decreasing the risk to his health.

All the other traditional OEM's are losing money on all of their EV's. Making a big switch to EV production means trading current profits on their ICE cars with current losses on their EVs. They have to keep competitive with Tesla in price and are having a very difficult time doing so in the US, even though all but GM have a $7000 price advantage over Tesla. Will shareholders and Boards of Ford and GM be willing to live through several years of little or no net earnings during the transition? If the new EV tax credit goes into effect (even with the $4500 union made bonus), the big beneficiary for this will be Tesla, since they produce hugely more US made EV's than anyone else, and with Austin (probably maxing at 2-3M/yr) and Fremont (growing another 50% to 1M), Tesla will be dominating the US EV production for the foreseeable future.

 

[lafrisbee]

Been meaning to write this for a while. Why do we give so much attention to Gordon, Fred, Lora, Mark BS and countless other FUD spreaders? Yes, most of us can't stand them (or worse). Me too. But we give them way more air time (and clicks) than they deserve. The bashing also starts to feel a lot like groundhog day, the same arguments over and over again. Can we just focus on this beautiful company and less on its detractors?

I have seen the "Gordo is a Joke crowd" as just their way of getting to proclaim how good Tesla is. I mean there are only so many times you will let some one say "Elon is a king."

 

[lafrisbee]

Am I the only one that finds it odd that Herbert Diess would post this company memo on LinkedIn (for all to see) as opposed to an internal email to only VW employees? It is as if Diess's intended audience is not VW employees, but others outside the corporation (i.e. the news media, their suppliers and distributors, and their competitors (although clearly not Tesla). Really he is pleading to anyone that will listen. They are good this time. Honest.

a deiss internal memo to 300 managers is leaked about as fast as a Musk internal memo about the big push needed at the end of the quarter. So he comes off looking transparent by doing it like he did.
(And it will also be in the public record for him to use if the company succeeds or fails.)

 

[Skryll]

I've been using a margin loan to enable me to diversify into other high growth stocks and even pick up a few more Tesla shares when the price was low earlier this year. I love the liquidity, but at some point in time, I have to sell something to pay down the margin. As Tesla is enormously concentrated in my portfolio, Tesla shares become the main assets to be sold to pay back the loan. The catch is I want to make payments at an opportune time in terms of share price.

So here's the approach that I've settled on. I think of it as a Tesla wall. I set a certain limit $X (several million) for my Tesla position. I set a sell limit order to sell a certain number of shares when the price is high enough that after the sell, I still have a position of $X. Thus, I'm allowing my position to advance a few points beyond the wall, but then I sell it back to the wall.

I can change the wall at any point in time and I have only shifted it up. My latest sell was at $838.71. But now my main balance is finally low enough that I've increased the wall such that I won't sell any more until Tesla is above $1000.

I used to be solidly buy-and-hold, but if you hold Tesla long enough, eventually it will make sense to trim a little. One thing I like about this approach is that it does give me latitude to repurchase shares whenever we might see a meaningful pull back. Just like I trim when my position is over $X, I can also buy back if my position falls back below, say 90%×$X. The wall works both ways. I still love backing the Cybertruck up to load up on underpriced shares.

In retirement, we plan to live on a small percentage of our Tesla position. So we'll use the wall and margin account to maintain a growing Tesla position. The amount that we need to live on is a much smaller percentage than I expect Tesla to grow over the next 10 years. So the wall can keep growing!

The important thing is that wall gives me a more disciplined approach growing the Tesla position over time while being able to enjoy the income that such a large position makes possible. It's okay to have your cake and eat it too!

If you are willing to sell in units of 100, consider writing call a option instead of selling with a sell order wall, so you can keep the premium if it doesnt hit it. This of course works best with a relatively close to current price and shorter time horizon if you really want to sell and better with a higher target that is less likely to be reached if you don't really want to sell yet.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I keep seeing that Manchin is a "bought" Senator in the tradition of the U.S.
The fact that Exxon has actually crowed about having weekly access to him
is a dead giveaway.

What I don't understand is if Senators have to be purchased, why isn't there
some opposite billionaire who respects the green way (say Elon Musk or Tim Cook)
who can outbid Exxon or the Koch brothers. Just say Joe, how much do you get from
the dark side? (Probably low tens of millions).

Then outbid that, for the sake of the planet.

I think we're just about to see that in Australia. The conservative leadership has been completely beholden to the coal/mining industry - however there's been a couple of power moves for massive green energy projects. The Murdoch press is starting to swing, which means it's not too long until the conservative party follows. I'd be surprised if Australian politics isn't very heavily renewables focused in 5 years as it will make both social and economic sense to do so.

 

[jhm]

Can I afford to enjoy 2% of my Tesla wealth each year?

Suppose you have 1000 shares today, and you believe that Tesla share price will be $10k in 2030. If you hold all 1000 shares, you expect your position to be worth $10M in 2030. Yay! You can enjoy your wealth in 2030.

What if you decide to sell 2% of your shares each year? You expect the shares to gain 32% per year on average. So if you subtract 2% from this growth rate, you still have an amazing 30% net growth rate. Specifically selling 2% per year over the next 9 years still leaves you with about 834 shares in 2030, so your Tesla nest egg is $8.34M.

If you were hoping to retire in 2031, does the difference $10M and $8.34M really mean that much to you? You have a pretty fantastic retirement either way.

Each person will have to decide for themselves how aggressively they want to save for retirement. The fortunate thing is when you have a substantial position is a stock like Tesla that can grow 32% for a good number of year, it's okay to harvest a little bit of it. You can still achieve your long-term goals.

Cheers!

 

[gene]

I'm there with you. I could have bought a Model 3 in 2018, or 2019, or 2020, or 2021. But that 2018 model 3 would have been $50,000 then and missing out on a 12x gain since then, something north of a half million dollar model 3 if I had bought it instead of TSLA.

And this isn't a what if, I literally went all in on TSLA instead of buying a car.

I'm literally making that choice every time there is a price change or news about any tax credit/rebate that would affect me. For now I'm still putting it into TSLA. At some point when I get that loan on a Model 3 or Y I'll be buying less shares per month/quarter until that loan is paid off.

And I know it's going to go up from here so that is going to be one super expensive car. But I'm not immortal, I may have to give up some profits to buy my next car or two. Maybe TSLA keeps going up for the rest of my life.

In very early 2013 I bought a Model S for cash at $100,000 and I bought $170,000 of TSLA during the year of 2013 (I still have most of it). That Model S was the most expensive car ever! Had I bought stock with that $100k it would be worth something like $8,800,000. That's one very expensive Model S!

Below is my 1st Model S, delivery day March 31st, 2013 (Yep, end of quarter rush). Back then, it was like being a Rock Star! I'd walk out of the market to my car and there would be a crowd of people just staring at it. One guy asked, "How much did you pay for that car?". I replied, "I have no idea, my girlfriend bought it for me" J/K.

 

[Paul_SF]

In very early 2013 I bought a Model S for cash at $100,000 and I bought $170,000 of TSLA during the year of 2013 (I still have most of it). That Model S was the most expensive car ever! Had I bought stock with that $100k it would be worth something like $8,800,000. That's one very expensive Model S!

It must have been hard going through that. How hard was it?