Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SPadival]

"Glad to see your leader let you talk and there is actually a team at tesla and not just a one man show." or something to that affect

Can someone inform Brian that we are glad to see him provide El Gordo some much needed company in the back of the class

 

[StealthP3D]

Ha! Thanks. Truth is, I was so absorbed with writing it forgot all about the earnings report. And then after I posted it, I thought, Oh, damn, that's bad timing; no one will read it now.

Here's to an excellent Q3, cheers!

Nice! One thing I learned early in my investing career is that success is more about sitting back and contemplating things over time, developing a greater understanding of the trajectory of the company, not staying on top of the hour-by-hour news and being ready to react at a moments notice. Actions taken in haste, more often than not, work against ones goals.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Drew Baglino more likely. Zach is Master of Coin, but Tesla's top spot is for the Technoking which needs to be an engineer. Zach has an engineering degree but Drew has been an engineering leader at Tesla since 2006.

Drew in first and mostly an engineer; he doesn't have the business skills to be a CEO, certainly not the kind of skills that a large multinational like Tesla needs going forward. That man is Zach, clearly. But being CEO doesn't automatically put him in the "top spot", no more than SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell is "top dog" over on that side.

This is written right into Elon's 2018 CEO compensation plan: he has to remain Executive Chairman and Chief Product Architech at Tesla, or CEO. Making this transition sooner will allow him to delegate the more mundane tasks of running the business, and spend more time doing what he loves most, product development. This has been the plan for a long time.

 

[Mengy]

I like how Tesla's been caught off guard by the huge demand for their products. Demand has outstripped supply, we've known that for a long time now but it was nice to hear Zach talk about it in detail.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Wow, what happened in after hours? Not surprised I guess. Fire sale tomorrow I guess. Great earnings report and call.

Dan

 

[Mike Smith]

I don't really see that's how things work at Tesla because the top people work as a team. That's why they make up fanciful titles for themselves like "Master of Coin" and "Techno-King", they are just making fun of traditional corporate structure and compartmentalization. Whether Elon is called CEO or not won't really matter, whoever is in that position will still take their lead from him. I think if you went inside the corporate offices you would find other team members doing many of the things that a CEO typically does and find Elon doing many things that would typically be delegated to an underling.

Yes, I agree completely. This is why I'm actually excited about Elon stepping down as CEO. Everything would stay the same except Elon wouldn't have to deal with mundane day-to-day CEO duties. This will be made clear when the announcement is made and wall street will start envisioning a Tim Cook / Steve Jobs dream team type scenario. Many institutions who thought Elon was too unpredictable as CEO would suddenly be willing to buy.

 

[30seconds]

So Fremont capacity is now 600k with room to expand and Shanghi is listed as >450k.

I've been assuming that Shanghi, Berlin and Texas will all have larger capacity than Fremont b/c green field design, larger footprints and no low volume S + X. I think that still holds, but starting to wonder what the capacity of those plants really is. 800k? 1m?

 

[heltok]

I think it was better not having Elon on the call. Elon has a tendency to say things that are very direct, to make commitment and say things that are falsifiable. Great qualities to have, but not great for the company. Imo better to let Elon focus on making the company deliver. They deflected many questions. Sure I would like to know the answers to the questions to satisfy my curiousity, but more than that I want the company to do well and make me richer.

My biggest takeaway was that some price increases will take time to show on revenue given these long delivery times. So a lot of the recent price hikes will not show up until the next quarters. Imo expect blowout Q1 YoY earnings. S already profitable, X should be in Q4 and maybe even Berlin and Austin in Q1. It will lower their average margins, but still contribute to profits which is what actually matters.

It seems that they are ready to ramp 4680 according to plan. So 100GWh in 2022?! I expect >50% growth for the next 3 years…

 

[RobDickinson]

So Fremont capacity is now 600k with room to expand and Shanghi is listed as >450k.

I've been assuming that Shanghi, Berlin and Texas will all have larger capacity than Fremont b/c green field design, larger footprints and no low volume S + X. I think that still holds, but starting to wonder what the capacity of those plants really is. 800k? 1m?

Shanghai is 550-600k right now at least

 

[JustSaying]

oh boy - Insurance stocks dropping tomorrow. Tesla is coming for them.
Reinventing how the industry works.

Amica insurance quote on our new Model S Plaid $223 month, the Tesla quote is $154. Amica has been a very good insurance company but I am seriously thinking about moving.

 

[22522]

So Fremont capacity is now 600k with room to expand and Shanghi is listed as >450k.

I've been assuming that Shanghi, Berlin and Texas will all have larger capacity than Fremont b/c green field design, larger footprints and no low volume S + X. I think that still holds, but starting to wonder what the capacity of those plants really is. 800k? 1m?

Way more.

 

[Singuy]

Wow, what happened in after hours? Not surprised I guess. Fire sale tomorrow I guess. Great earnings report and call.

Dan

Go watch yesterday's and today's episode of my favorite clairvoyant. He said there's a gap to fill even with blowout earning so expect sell the news. Strong support at 800 but most likely bounce back before then and most likely hit ATH eventually but just not in the next day or so. My expectations is a sell off to 843 or 826 before we get some upgrades from analysts and stabilize for the next leg higher. It'll exceed my expectations if we actually go higher after earnings tomorrow. So hopefully this temper expectations tomorrow and reduce some whining.

 

[Causalien]

Kind of dreaming of the day tesla start paying dividends lol

 

[StrongGuy]

I'm now more confident that Tesla can justify its current valuation even without FSD.

 

[SPadival]

P/E ratio TTM around 280?

Confirmed

https://twitter.com/x/status/1450987005152743425

 

[The Accountant]

Let the price target revisions begin !!!

 

[RobDickinson]

I hope thats post split...

 

[Sancho]

For those of us that have been following the TSLA story for years, the market’s immediate reaction to earnings, P&D figures, etc is meaningless. It’s driven by trading positions, not reaction to fundamentals.

Massive consumer demand. Rapidly scaling manufacturing. Increasing margins. This is what winning-by-innovating looks like.

 

[SPadival]

Let the price target revisions begin !!!

View attachment 723840

I am unmoved until the Vampire Squid revises the PT.

 

[ZsoZso]

OK, so tomorrow we will get another chance to buy the dip.
Question is: where will it bottom out?
@Singuy guessed 843 or 826.
Any other guesses ?
Let the auction begin, Ladies and Gentlemen!
Do I hear 815 ?
How about lower ?