Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I don't know about you, but I feel like we've made some progress this week:

Max Pain for today's Options contract expiries has marched up steadily:

Also, with today's 7 a.m. Options OI update, my experimental "C-P Brkpt" analysis now points to the current SP range (as opposed to "Max-Pain", which has lagged the SP significantly for more than the past 3 weeks).

Cheers!

 

[lascavarian]

Max Pain for today's Options contract expiries has marched up steadily:

View attachment 724241

Also, with today's 7 a.m. Options OI update, my experimental "C-P Brkpt" analysis now points to the current SP range (as opposed to "Max-Pain", which has lagged the SP significantly for more than the past 3 weeks).

Cheers!

Thanks for your contributions. I was wondering if your experimental “C-P Brkpt” metric and Max Pain have similar movement trends or momentum? Can they be confounding or supportive other than the different SP offset?

 

[Favguy]

To be total educating we might add that SEAT used to have a CUPRA model line for ages - but today the CUPRA name is a brand name of full EV models and a re-branding of SEAT to CUPRA as it transitions to a 100% EV brand away from ICE.

EDIT: and Plug-in Hybrids not EV-only it seams

The Cupra brand is the performance offshoot of Seat, its not just EV or hybrid, they also have lots of performance ICE models.

Seat/Cupra/Skoda really are, very much, nothing more than slightly restyled and re-badged VW's today though. Nothing much at all unique about them and all the platform/drive train is standard VW stuff.

 

[Singuy]

Great summary! Gary provides a lot of valuable insights into the portfolio manager and fund world. I learn something new every time I talk with him.

It's like getting a reply from a celebrity. You should post most around here

 

[phoggy123]

Wonderful and enlightening summary of the SEC investigation into GameStop rally, which is still ongoing with WVAP higher than previous peaks. The report dispelled all of my beliefs on what exactly happened, and many conceptions on how does the financial market works in general.

Since SEC also investigated many stocks that had unusual movements and volume during 2020 and 2021, my assumption is the investigation also included TSLA. This video changed my mind and I now believe there was no naked short in TSLA, and the 2020/early 2021 TSLA run ups had nothing to do with any short squeeze, just like GME did NOT reach that hyperbolic peak due to a short squeeze! Conversely, SEC concluded that the huge spike in GME was due to the reluctance of shorts from entering into any new short position, something I have not previously considered. There were also no naked shorts in GME over the past 3 years despite the over 100% short interest.

.

Or....conversely they decided to ignore naked short selling, because the mere acknowledgment of such a thing would ignite a storm they couldn't contain. If you traded during the GameStop saga, the number of circuit breakers was astonishing to say the least. The fact they ignored the Gamma squeeze that occurred when people purchased options that were out of the money to start the day, but then when the stock price eclipsed even the farthest out of the money option....there was a massive problem.

If they don't actually address the problem, that hedge funds are able to short the market and not accurately disclose how short they are, we can never really know with certainty how many shares have been resold. The brokers have every incentive in the world to sell the same shares short over and over again. When FTD's hit record highs its not because they would just rather not give the shares up, its because they cannot locate them to save their lives. The answer to this is more sunlight, more disclosure, and some type of share chain of custody that can be updated in seconds. The SEC works for wall-street, not the people who are reading this paper.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Gary is really smart and acts with first hand knowledge of how money moves in the trading industry (Portfolio Managers).
What he does on Twitter is very useful for explaining Tesla to a broader audience (including me).
Current TSLA stock price is likely 10% higher at this point in time because of the clarity of his communications. I am not saying he is responsible for that value. He is responsible for it being recognized in the stock price at this point in time. He pulls recognized value forward.

I appreciate both Gary and the contributions of the people on this board.

Now to answer your question about why all the hate on Gary. I can only speak for myself, and it is not hate.

1) He tries for force (badger) Tesla/Elon into the pattern of behavior that plays best to portfolio managers. The big 3 have been playing to portfolio managers for years. This behavior is why they are where they are. So he is trying to force Tesla to be more like GM (in every respect, as you can't pick and choose.) So there is conflict. People here do not want TESLA to perform like GM. Gary does not know that GM like performance is what he is asking for.

2) He thinks Telsa should direct funds to PR and advertising. That means lower R&D expenditures and consequently worse product as the money has to come from somewhere. Someone here pointed at advertising costs vs R&D costs per vehicle for car companies. I parroted it. Reflect on that a while.

3) He has talked about developing a service revenue stream [IIRC]. That means holding customers hostage and extorting money from them. This destroys Net Promoter Score and kills the durable demand that Tesla relies on. If people don't want to tell their friends to become hostages, Tesla flexibility on delivery and upgrades disappears. The company dynamic changes completely and they get trapped in traditional automakers' "pay people to take it" flow requirements.

So Elon and Tesla have worked very hard to structure the company to avoid the pitfalls of the big automakers.

No advertising.
No discounts.
No distribution channel (even though distribution can help you magically dress your numbers at the end of each quarter).
Distribution channel has no voice on the car ( A car salesman is very self confident. Their input is "I am great." "I can sell anything with your badge on it." "Just make it as cheap as possible so I maximize both profit per sale and service revenue." "if you do that for me, I will help you make the numbers look good at the end of each quarter.")
Etc.

Gary yells in Elon's ear to get Elon to behave like they train you to behave in business school, not caring, or understanding that that behavior will make TESLA and it's products mediocre - Just like all the dead and dying companies in, and products from, the rust belt.


So we all know that a Harvard MBA will kill Tesla and make them just like all the other companies with a high concentration of Harvard MBAs.
Do a demographic study.
Gary is taking a run at it and softening Elon up to where caring about Tesla is not worth the trouble. Body blows in early rounds.
He has probably already hastened Telsa's demise by 18 months.
Eventually Elon will hand the reins to a Harvard MBA who will hire their friends and TESLA's moment will have passed. They will start preying on customers, forget about Net Promoter Scores, start advertising, create a PR department to lie to the public before facts are in, and lie to the public to protect stock prices - just like the oil company PR people.

I hope this answers your question. Munro has seen this progression before, first hand. He knows how the story goes.

I like Gary.
Elon is way better at creating wealth.
Gary does not act as if he respects Elon, or what Elon has done.

[Edited for clarity by adding words and commas here and there.]

He was also apoplectic with the Bitcoin buy, and was correlating TSLA SP performance with Bitcoin performance. Until there was no correlation.

 

[avoigt]

Like I said over at Tesmanian. If these are public discussions why arent we seeing what the public is asking/saying and how they are being responded to?

They are public I and read a part of them but believe me you don't wanna do that. Its hundreds of pages of mostly irrelevant or already answered questions the authorities respond in their language.

 

[SN_8]

Max Pain for today's Options contract expiries has marched up steadily:

View attachment 724241

Also, with today's 7 a.m. Options OI update, my experimental "C-P Brkpt" analysis now points to the current SP range (as opposed to "Max-Pain", which has lagged the SP significantly for more than the past 3 weeks).

Cheers!

I'm eagerly awaiting your c-p brkpt analysis to move out of beta and into general release. I think it's ready.

 

[traxila]

can't stand tslaq, but some tsla uber bulls are disgusting.

Think what you mean to say is that PEOPLE are disgusting and that Twitter can be concentrated cesspool of the disgusting ones.

 

[Krugerrand]

can't stand tslaq, but some tsla perma bears are disgusting.

1. None of those people have identified themselves as ‘perma bears’ and I’m sure not taking your word for it. Besides, I think you wanted to say perma ‘bulls’.

2. Nobody said that there didn’t exist rude people who also support Tesla, so what’s your point?

3. Despite anyone’s personal view of the conduct you’ve highlighted, it’s basically her receiving as good as she herself dished. Some people think that’s just a display of fairness.

4. The game you’re attempting to play here is boring at best, and while *we* had all stopped discussing her pages ago, you decided to resurrect the subject. Move along or bring something of merit to the table.

 

[traxila]

Wonderful and enlightening summary of the SEC investigation into GameStop rally, which is still ongoing with WVAP higher than previous peaks. The report dispelled all of my beliefs on what exactly happened, and many conceptions on how does the financial market works in general.

Since SEC also investigated many stocks that had unusual movements and volume during 2020 and 2021, my assumption is the investigation also included TSLA. This video changed my mind and I now believe there was no naked short in TSLA, and the 2020/early 2021 TSLA run ups had nothing to do with any short squeeze, just like GME did NOT reach that hyperbolic peak due to a short squeeze! Conversely, SEC concluded that the huge spike in GME was due to the reluctance of shorts from entering into any new short position, something I have not previously considered. There were also no naked shorts in GME over the past 3 years despite the over 100% short interest.

.

Really glad that the

Short seller
Enrichment
Commission

determined that there are absolutely no problems with shorts in the market.

Would love to see the convoluted twisted logic that determined there were no naked shorts despite a greater than 100 percent short interest on the float, but I get enough propaganda from the usual suspects on a daily basis so I will pass.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Boring Company Vegas Loop 29-mile expansion plan was just officially approved this week. It will have a fleet of 700 Teslas when this phase is complete, running tens of thousands of Vegas residents and tourists per hour around the city providing amazing advertisement for Tesla and eventually showing off FSD.

During the Clark County Commission hearing, Boring Co CEO Steve Davis mentioned ambitions to have Vegas as the first node in a soon-to-be national Loop network. In what seemed to me to be a telling slip of the tongue, he initially said "international". He also said that eventually the plan is still to allow connectivity between Loop and Hyperloop. Additionally, he stated on record that this will be the cheapest and safest urban transport architecture ever designed.

At the hearing, prominent local business leaders, unions, and others all voiced wholeheartedly their approval of the proposal and then the Commission voted unanimously in favor. They are talking about this project as nothing short of revolutionary for Vegas and the whole planet.

LV Convention and Visitors Authority CEO Steve Davis confirmed in an interview that stations can be integrated into any aboveground patch of asphalt and also into underground parking garages. We also learned that at this point they can dig faster than they can construct stations.

In my opinion, this is extremely bullish for Tesla, because

1) It's associated with Elon's influence, wealth and credibility
2) No other company produces better vehicles for this system
3) This will massively accelerate the transition to sustainable energy because it multiplies the benefits of AEVs

Clark County Planning Commission on 2021-10-19 7:00 PM

Live and Recorded Public meetings of Clark County Planning Commission on 2021-10-19 7:00 PM for County of Clark

clark.granicus.com

Soon…

 

[Boomer19]

Great summary! Gary provides a lot of valuable insights into the portfolio manager and fund world. I learn something new every time I talk with him.

agreed. he’s among the least troublesome in the twittersphere. we don’t have to agree with everything everyone says. but it’s also everyone’s responsibility to formulate their own opinions based upon their own research. it takes time and effort to weed out the good info from the faulty. just like anything else…why would you depend on what 1 person or group says when you’re putting your own money on the line? it may work once in a while…but

 

[Dancing Lemur]

I love the look and feel of the 6-seater, but what I really missed with my current 7 monopole-seat X, is that ability to fold flat the whole lot

If they solved this with the 6-seater then I'd flip to that as it would work out better for the dogs, TBH I don't understand why they don't hinge the middle-row seats, can't be that hard

Yes the fold-flat is the issue for me: dogs & camping. But I suppose the dogs can stay in the MY and it’ll stay cleaner.

The MX is just to tide me over until my CT gets built. And for a while there, it looked like the CT might beat it.

We’d heard the LR Xs were starting deliveries, but I hadn’t seen any Plaids yet. If the S ramp is any indication, we shouldn’t expect many Xs in Q4, but at least some will be Plaid, which should be a positive margin contributor. I’m just happy they’re starting any deliveries — it’s been a long wait.

I’ll update y’all when she arrives. Hope everyone has an All-Time Day.

 

[jkirkwood001]

I thought this warning message would tickle a few of you...
View attachment 724240

Whoa! Did they seriously commit the sin [edit] we hate here - a typo?!?

"Please be prepared to break" such an ominous typo...

 

[canoemore]

Should be interesting to watch the battle for 900 play out today!

Edit: lol

 

[NooB_cat]

It's taking a couple of run-ups at 900 straight off the mark!
3rd time lucky?

Edit: Okay that took all of 5 mins haha!

 

[Singuy]

Should be interesting to watch the battle for 900 play out today!

There were some 167k share sell walls at 900 yesterday so it's a tough one. Trick is to break through 900 at premarket.

 

[Pezpunk]

BLAM

 

[Paul_SF]

Boom