Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Anyone else feels the rally forward may be a bit muted given the ten year at 1.6 and climbing? At least until earnings …

Of course TSLA does what it wants. Just pointing out those pesky macros…

The world in general and the markets are feeling a lot of uncertainty. Tesla is in transition also, with two new factories to bring online, new technologies ramping (4680 cells, structural packs, Cybertruck and Semi, etc.) so expect all this uncertainty to translate into above average volatility with the market acting kind of manic-depressive on a day-to-day basis, often for no apparent reason (or with outsized reactions to minor developments or completely ignoring significant developments). Decent sized-moves that change direction suddenly and unpredictably but with an upward bias overall into and after earnings.

It's just noise, even if that noise probably takes us, on average, higher. Macro markets could rally strongly (in which case TSLA could go crazy) but, even if market sentiment turns sour, I think TSLA will remain relatively strong, a flight to the safety of growth. TSLA is an incredibly strong company now and it's in a particularly strong position. Autos, both new and used, are in very high demand, and it's not so much driven by crazy demand as it is by a lack of supply. This is a very strong tailwind in the event of economic weakness. I think TSLA has a high probability of trading between $1000 and $1700 (or even higher in a more bullish macro environment) over the next 8 months. Predicting individual moves within this range will be nearly impossible most of the time.

 

[Nocturnal]

Textbook FUD coordination. Half the papers in the country "Tesla criticized for Xinjiang store". Always a vague "someone else", never "we are criticizing". Meanwhile the US is drowning in Chinese exports as we tweet from our Apple phones, parts of which were actually made there.

 

[LST]

What work keeps you busy now - Is it focusing on your investments, or something more hand on in a company?

I've hit my FI number due to Tesla but haven't pulled the trigger on the 9-5 role yet. After a decade in my industry it feels like stepping back is giving up an important asset (current experience) - even though I don't need the salary anymore and it's quite a demanding finance role. Did you know what you wanted to do at the time once you "retired

Answer will be OT, sorry mods, but I don't know how to make this nifty spoiler button....scroll away already ; )

I was on the brink of a serious burnout after 30 years in architecture. I started my own office just after studies, paid back the study loan ten years after my diploma. I felt great creating buildings, creating jobs for young architects, apprentices and interns. Focus was sustainable building. But the pressure, stress etc. was getting deeper than I thought be possible. The gains in TSLA helped making the step, and the plan was to do nothing until the void would be filled with new ideas. It turned out completely different.. My wife decided that two persons (ex kids) at the house was to much, and stepped up her job to 100% , which made me houseman immediatly. I continue to do consulting but take only the jobs I really find interesting enough. Being able to say no alters the game completely, clients hunt after you...Then I started a small real estate firm with friends and I am helping a small local Gin Distillery (yes with money). I cook for the family, discuss investments with the kids (3 of them), walk the dogs, and spend too much time with you guys. And I started to look after the investments for the extended family, so you see, it really keeps me busy, but I was never happier than now. Do I miss architecture ? Nope... I'd love to be 20 and study the right thiing to be able to join Tesla or SpaceX.

 

[ZeApelido]

Is there a word for "I could retire, but my wife wants to live in the most expensive place in the country and spend $5000 a month on private schools"?

Asking for a friend.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Surprise! (not really). We Opened exactly on top of the Upper-BB:

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes​

Data last updated Jan 04, 2022 09:30 AM ET.
This page will resume updating on Jan 05, 2022 04:00 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$1197.625 -2.155 (-0.18%)
Pre-Market Volume	916,529
Pre-Market High	$1210.21 (04:01:14 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$1188.88 (09:30:01 AM)

Lots of volutility in the pre-Market as Hedgies fight to regain control of this TIGER.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Boomer19]

The world in general and the markets are feeling a lot of uncertainty. Tesla is in transition also, with two new factories to bring online, new technologies ramping (4680 cells, structural packs, Cybertruck and Semi, etc.) so expect all this uncertainty to translate into above average volatility with the market acting kind of manic-depressive on a day-to-day basis, often for no apparent reason (or with outsized reactions to minor developments or completely ignoring significant developments). Decent sized-moves that change direction suddenly and unpredictably but with an upward bias overall into and after earnings.

It's just noise, even if that noise probably takes us, on average, higher. Macro markets could rally strongly (in which case TSLA could go crazy) but, even if market sentiment turns sour, I think TSLA will remain relatively strong, a flight to the safety of growth. TSLA is an incredibly strong company now and it's in a particularly strong position. Autos, both new and used, are in very high demand, and it's not so much driven by crazy demand as it is by a lack of supply. This is a very strong tailwind in the event of economic weakness. I think TSLA has a high probability of trading between $1000 and $1700 (or even higher in a more bullish macro environment) over the next 8 months. Predicting individual moves within this range will be nearly impossible most of the time.

agreed
on that uncertainty topic...many have made the point that macro/geopolitcal is being talked about much more than than in normal times, and that is cause for worry. sure a black swan can sink us all, but that is not something I worry about, because I cannot control it.

main reason im not really too worried is because my outlook is to ~ 2030. sure it would be nice to take profits every 2-3 years, but I've tried to set myself up with TSLA that I don't need to touch for the foreseeable future.
*caveat - I do make some short term trades in stock or options, conditions permitting.

however, in light of recession talk (and since EM brought it up) id like to explore everyones thoughts on the potential impact and Tesla's advantages or blind spots if any. who better to hash this out than those on this forum?

there has been a bit of talk about the impact to Tesla on some of the sources I follow. some claim that due to Tesla supply chain strategy they will be more insulated than other OEMs. I tend to agree.

to me, another crutch for Tesla is their outstanding margins and pricing power. if the recession truly got that desperate, technically they could sell cars for less, and ride the tide, covering all their costs while sacrificing some profits (again, if the environment was really bad) --- while most of the others drown trying to produce at loss, and service gobs of debt. of course USAM will bail some out...

anyway...other's insights on this may be helpful in preparation/how to think about, should we get to that point sometime in the next couple years

 

[Artful Dodger]

Is there a word for "I could retire, but my wife wants to live in the most expensive place in the country and spend $5000 a month on private schools"?

Asking for a friend.

Have you considered Norway? The schools are free, and the herring is excellent. So's the Tesla.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Just a quick question for the board......would you folks get it if I posted a Kool Mo Dee pic each time we see a TSLA "breakout"?

 

[Singuy]

Bears like to compare Tesla to car companies. Wallstreet only cares about profits no matter what kind of company it is. Does Tesla deserves to be part of the trillion dollar club? Lets compare Tesla balance sheet in estimated Q4 to Amazon's when they first hit 1 trillion dollars due to Q4 2019 earnings.

Amazon yoy revenue growth: 21%
Amazon's operating margin: 5.18%
Amazon's operating income: 3.88B

Tesla's yoy revenue growth: ~80%
Tesla's operating margin: estimated ~18%
Tesla's operating income : estimated~ 3.1 B

Yes, amazon made more revenue than Tesla, but their operating margin is trash while guiding revenue growth to be 20-30% going forward(of course their revenue grew more than that due to black swan pandemic). Now that it's post pandemic, we see Amazon's revenue stalling while operating income dropping like a rock.

Tesla is guiding for 50% revenue growth going forward, and most likely supersede this number again in 2022. This is what bears don't want you to see because the operating income which translate mostly to non-gaap will continue to crush minds going forward and it's unprecedented given the revenue growth rate. Infact Tesla will surpass Amazon's operating income in 1.5 years at the guided 50% revenue growth rate(if operating margins stay the same)...however Zach said operating margins will continue to expand for the next few quarters.

Conclusion: We don't have to throw FSD robo taxi/energy/insurance/not a car company/robotic AI or any of that stuff as arguments to why Tesla is fairly valued(or maybe even under valued if they continue to crush earnings). It's all in the balance sheet.

 

[farzyness]

@farzyness has shared in some recent YouTube videos his desire to use the TSLA abundance to take time off to explore and find out what being a human is really about before attacking the next phase of his life. I feel the same way, except for me that adventure may end with a new beginning at Tesla or Boring Co. On the other hand, maybe I'll want to start my own business finally, or step away from the Musk world for a while and get a job somewhere else. Honestly, I don't know right now and I would appreciate any advice from those older and wiser than I, especially those like @Artful Dodger who have given a middle finger to the rat race early in life, or those like @Discoducky who have worked at Tesla.

Congrats on the decision! I'm 3 months in and I couldn't be happier. The thing that really stuck out to me once I had a ton of time in my hands is that 1) I cannot seem to know how to sit still 2) I need to invest a ton of time into health and fitness of both body and mind and 3) The amount of joy you get from the little things once you're more present in everyday life is surprising, and something that should be cherished.

Best of luck and keep us in the loop!

 

[lafrisbee]

But wait... there is more...

No, not Moody's. That's noise.

You, fellas, are so busy counting Benjamins that you are ignoring the elephant sitting in front of you. DJIA.

Tesla qualifies for this exclusive 10 trillion dollar index of 30. Average entry is at 3%. Who is ready for $300B in stock locked up in DJIA?

Given the sentiment at the moment, I would STRONGLY advise to not exit your positions any time soon. Not until TSLA is part of DJIA.

Is this actually a consideration? Please give me your insight...

 

[HG Wells]

Is there a word for "I could retire, but my wife wants to live in the most expensive place in the country and spend $5000 a month on private schools"?

Asking for a friend.

There's just one word for that DIVORCE ! *

* Assuming you are in a state that is "what's mine is mine". Otherwise, best practices dictate "Yes Dear".

 

[StealthP3D]

Is there a word for "I could retire, but my wife wants to live in the most expensive place in the country and spend $5000 a month on private schools"?

Asking for a friend.

Domestidyllic flagellation?

 

[UkNorthampton]

Let S-curves S-curve - UK - December - "Please Elon, send us more cars, we only have a few of the Model 3 we ask for, send more and send us the Y, S & X"

Edit to put in spoiler for mobile phone users.

Tesla 9% of Uk sales (with only Model 3 sales)

Spoiler: Tweets-PieChart

https://twitter.com/x/status/1478260897399414787

 

[fiveten]

Anyone buying the MMD today?

 

[thesmokingman]

As expected, take profits day is happening.

Let S-curves S-curve - UK - December - "Please Elon, send us more cars, we only have a few of the Model 3 we ask for, send more and send us the Y, S & X"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1478260897399414787

View attachment 751777

Wow, EV's got a pretty big slice of that pie now.

 

[Huskyf]

What happening with TSLA ???

 

[ggr]

Mod: Lifestyle and retirement discussion went too far. Some posts deleted, no more will be tolerated in this thread. --ggr

 

[StealthP3D]

What happening with TSLA ???

Do you care to say something more specific?

 

[HG Wells]

Is this precipitous drop

due to Ford announcing they are going to double the doubling of the electric F150 ?

See Ford says it will double production of electric F-150 Lightning to 150,000 trucks per year

EDIT: My Crystal ball says green by lunch time.