Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FastCompany]

I kind of like these price actions. I am in the process of transferring my TSLA stock from an Educations Savings Account to my Tax Free Account. Only way to do it is to sell in one plan and buy in the other. I am doing that in batches but the other way round. Bought today in the Tax Free savings account right at a low point and gave a limit sell order in the education savings account for the same number of shares but at a higher price. So basically I am HODL-ing but making money at the same time as the number of shares I am having in the long run does not really change.

Hi Dutchie,

I'm in Canada as well.

I can do transfers in-kind from my LIF account to my TFSA account. I have to make the request by phone, and what happens is that they first transfer them to my non-registered margin account and then to the TFSA as they cannot go direct LIF > TFSA. There is no charge, and no sales. You may want to check and see if a non-registered account would also work in your situation.

 

[Singuy]

FWIW my expectation is the news will generally be positive, but absolutely be spun in the headlines as stuff being late, delayed, or problematic.

Like call will be 95% about how margins are insanely great, revenue and profit is through the roof, 50% CAGR guidance continues, and all major 4680 obstacles are now solved and the ramp can start... but all the headlines are gonna be garbage like "Musk admits cybertruck is years behind Rivian" because mass CT production not coming till 2023 or some such nonsense

I don't think institutional investors think this is a bad thing (MSM may but no one cares). Dan Ive was talking about how the old Tesla would break their backs trying to bring something like the cybertruck out, completely nuking their financials. The new Tesla is all about managing cost/supply/demand/have a much cleaner balance sheet, focusing on margin expansion and profits.

 

[capster]

An EV skeptic emailed me this link today:

Prairie Tesla owners battle loss of heat amid extreme cold weather after software update

A number of Tesla owners across the prairies complain they are experiencing heating issues in their vehicles at a time when temperatures have plummeted.

calgary.ctvnews.ca

That is good to know.

We had unusually cold weather recently where I live (low 20’s Fahrenheit). My Model 3 was using what seemed to me to be an unusually large amount of energy when I was driving around with the heat going. I only noticed after the most recent software update and mentioned that release in my bug report, however I don’t drive all that much and it wasn’t that cold previously, so the issue could have crept in in an earlier release. I’m curious now to see how fast Tesla can address this.

edit: Now that I think about it, I’ve never spent all that much time driving in such cold weather so it’s conceivable that I somehow missed this and that my car has always been this way.

 

[MC3OZ]

He said something about wanting to build a car designed in China. I can't recall if he specified for the local market or local and export.

The head of Tesla in China described it as a Chinese designed built for the world market.

There is an Electric Viking video with the following rumors-

• A prototype is nearly complete.
• It will use close to 100% locally sourced parts.

My guess is that they will rapidly build a new factory to make the car on the pile of dirt close to GF Shanghai. My hunch is that factory construction might start in the first half of this year.

They need to produce high volumes if they intend to export to global markets.

Someone may ask a question on this in the earnings call, and Tesla may answer it.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Tesla released a new video about their new deployment of 81 Megapacks in Angleton, TX:

About an hour's drive from our home. They plug into Texas-New Mexico Power, which is our transmission/distribution provider.

 

[2daMoon]

Regarding CES, I wonder if anyone has had the guts to tell "You Did It" Mary about the Tesla-infused Boring tunnel at the convention center?

Kudos and double brownie points, plus a gold star for anyone getting a picture of her in or beside a LVCC Tesla Personal People Transporter.

 

[CHGolferJim]

As much as it amuses me that Nancy Pelosi and husband have bought deep ITM Tesla LEAPS, I agree. What do you think?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479146881032900609

Otoh, that would be a disincentive for some to seek public office, further narrowing the talent pool. Friends who recently retired from the federal civil service are remarkably clueless about investing because they haven't been allowed to do it since 1980.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

Writing this thread on the UK's transition to BEVs was a great way to miss the SP drama! I suggest you give it a read and ignore the daily noise!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479114169076969478

https://twitter.com/x/status/1478741185531465732

 

[CHGolferJim]

That is good to know.

We had unusually cold weather recently where I live (low 20’s Fahrenheit). My Model 3 was using what seemed to me to be an unusually large amount of energy when I was driving around with the heat going. I only noticed after the most recent software update and mentioned that release in my bug report, however I don’t drive all that much and it wasn’t that cold previously, so the issue could have crept in in an earlier release. I’m curious now to see how fast Tesla can address this.

edit: Now that I think about it, I’ve never spent all that much time driving in such cold weather so it’s conceivable that I somehow missed this and that my car has always been this way.

Just in case you haven't heard these tricks to save energy: 1) preheat car while plugged in, and 2) use seat warmers rather than the heat where possible.

 

[WADan]

Does anyone know if future splits require share holder approval? Rumor I saw floating around somewhere.

I think it only requires the approval of the board of directors

 

[bkp_duke]

I think it only requires the approval of the board of directors

Not unless you want an odd split like 1.8 to 1.

There are not enough authorized max shares, and that requires a shareholder vote.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Otoh, that would be a disincentive for some to seek public office, further narrowing the talent pool. Friends who recently retired from the federal civil service are remarkably clueless about investing because they haven't been allowed to do it since 1980.

??? That doesn’t sound right. I was a federal civil servant for 32 years and I had plenty of investments. You had to report your holdings every few years to make sure there were no conflicts of interest. The retirement system that has been in place since 1984 has groups of approved investments to choose from, but I don’t think anything prevents from investing outside the retirement system.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Not unless you want an odd split like 1.8 to 1.

There are not enough authorized max shares, and that requires a shareholder vote.

I don't think there's another split until middle of this year, but they can announce a split at any time and say "Pending shareholder approval at vote on X date".

There's nothing stopping them from making the announcement and then holding the vote.

 

[capster]

Boy, this is tough to handicap, especially from abroad. I’ll easily grant you that there are likely forces pushing for approval as well as delay.

For example, I happened to be chatting with a Miele representative from Germany at one of Miele’s Experience Centers here in the US fairly recently (I have and like several of Miele’s products and highly recommend them too). She mentioned Dieselgate with a lowered voice and a shudder—I gathered from her that the fallout from that was, um, less than helpful to Miele sales (edit: as well as perhaps being damaging to her faith and pride in Germany). So I expect that there are folks in Germany who would much prefer not to have another cheating scandal emanate from the automotive side.

Here I meant "Boy" as an exclamation, as in “Oh boy," and not as a form of address, as in "Hey boy."

I hope and am pretty sure most here, including the person I was responding to (@jbcarioca), wouldn‘t misunderstand.

Still I thought I would clarify as it seems to me some of my posts may have come across in ways I didn‘t intend.

 

[The Accountant]

I don't think there's another split until middle of this year, but they can announce a split at any time and say "Pending shareholder approval at vote on X date".

There's nothing stopping them from making the announcement and then holding the vote.

I did a quick Google search for "Stock Split Pending ...." and found this:

"NVIDIA today announced that its board of directors declared a four-for-one split of NVIDIA’s common stock in the form of a stock dividend to make stock ownership more accessible to investors and employees. The stock dividend is conditioned on obtaining stockholder approval at the company’s 2021 Annual Meeting of Stockholders ― to be held virtually on Thursday, June 3, at 11 a.m. PT ― to increase the number of authorized shares of common stock to 4 billion shares."

NVIDIA Announces Four-for-One Stock Split, Pending Stockholder Approval at Annual Meeting Set for June 3

SANTA CLARA, Calif., May 21, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- NVIDIA today announced that its board of directors declared a four-for-one split of NVIDIA’s common...

www.globenewswire.com

 

[Spacep0d]

It's even simpler than that. There is no "EV Market", there is only the "Automobile Market" (and light trucks).

I think this is true now, but the distinction was helpful earlier. EVs for the win! Tesla is the clear leader of course, and will be for the foreseeable future.

 

[Singuy]

So taking some analyst forecasts off yahoo and with our Accountant's forecast, we get the following for Q4.

Earnings-----yoy revenue growth

Ford: 1.572 billion----8%
GM: 1.524 billion ---- (8.7%)
Amazon 1.91 billion---- 9.7%
Tesla: 3 billion-----61%

 

[CorneliusXX]

Nope! F&I is excluded always. rebates are included as are warranty service and OEM supported promotions and advertising, as well as parts.
Finance is distinct so even OEM extended warranty (>100% markup usually) is excluded.

Your statement about egregious is true, nowhere more Sio than with leases, but those are NOT part fo the calculation.

From a consumer perspective it is hard to buy from a dealer without the dealer gross around 20%. Because4 of accounting new car sales are often shown as minimal profit. All this can be and usually is opaque. your 'egregious' applies to the entire process.

A couple years responsible for a captive product design and marketing taught me one can NEVER trust anything said by a dealer, no matter how well they treat you.

NOTE: While in that position I had to purchase my own vehicle through a dealer, who also was on the F&I product design dealer group. The dealer asked "how much money will you let me make on this deal?". I responded and the final document added exactly 11.7% in hidden charges. I found them, and agreed to pay, but told him that he'd not ever have favors from me again and that I'd make sure others in the company knew. He revised the documents with alacrity. I carried out my pledge. he never forgive me nor I him. His rank in sales did plummet during the next year. NEVER, EVER trust a dealer. They'll cheat their own grandmothers, perhaps their own siblings.

Agree. In Australia there was an agreement between certain dealers and the banks providing the financing that they could have "flexible commissions" where the dealer could set the interest rate on the loan and any additional returns from the customer (above the banks required interest rate) would be shared between the dealer and the bank.

If the customer purchased a vehicle where the financing came to (e.g.) $500/month at the banks required interest rate - the dealer would ask the customer how much they wanted to pay a month, and if it was over $500 they would jack up the rate until the monthly payments matched the desired amount. The bank would then PV a portion of the difference in payments and give it to the dealer. I frequently saw deals where the effective rate to the customer was 30%+, worse than just buying the vehicle on a credit card. This process could net the dealer far more than 16% of the vehicle cost - even up to the "market adjustment" levels we are seeing today in the US.

It was so unfair that it ended up being shut down by a royal commission a few years ago.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So taking some analyst forecasts off yahoo and with our Accountant's forecast, we get the following for Q4.

Earnings-----yoy revenue growth

Ford: 1.572 billion----8%
GM: 1.524 billion ---- (8.7%)
Amazon 1.91 billion---- 9.7%
Tesla: 3 billion-----61%

The earnings growth for TSLA is by far the most impressive thing. EPS growth YoY will be in the range of 1000%....from EPS GAAP of $.24 to between $2.30-2.50 EPS GAAP. In just one year. Truly nutty earnings growth there........and yet it's Forward P/E is only in the 140's.

 

[Tim S]

New Yorkers check your spam folders I had an email from Tesla Engage in my junk this morning

just a few clicks and the NY Gov and other politicians receive form letter below

This message is in response to the following article:
New York — Support Direct Sales
New York — Support Direct Sales
--

Hello,
I am reaching out as a New Yorker in support of removing New York’s restriction on direct sales of electric vehicles by EV manufacturers. The current law protects car dealers at the expense of progress on climate goals, air quality, and consumer protection. Please help bring more jobs and clean cars to our state now.
We can’t let politics and protectionism for powerful interest groups stand in the way of progress with so much at stake.
Thank you.

There are also links for residents of Quebec and Wisconsin here... Engage Tesla