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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Rawlinson himself has stated he is not a software guy, scarcely knows anything about software, and is letting his teams try to figure out the software side. This is the biggest thing that is going to doom Lucid.

Meanwhile Elon comes from a software, not hardware background. Software is 95% of Tesla's competitive advantage, the other 5% is the Supercharger network. It's a lot easier to find talent that can design a car than talent that can design software. This is why Silicon Valley is so perennially underappreciated by Wall Street types who think you just wave a magic wand and iOS comes out or something. Software has always been the real advantage, Tesla has it and everyone else like Lucid and Rivian plus the legacy auto types do not.

Lucid has a tough row to hoe, not only because they literally chose to copy the Tesla plan exactly more than a decade later and make the Model S again except not as good, but because their strength is in commodity hardware and not highly competitive and specialized software. Even Rivian has an easier road ahead because at least Rivian picked market segments which aren't already completely saturated like Lucid did.
I think Elon said himself that manufacturing was Tesla competitive advantage ... i would agree SW and supercharger are short term advantages ... lets face it they have a lot of advantages ... as SMR would say an "unassailable lead"
 
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Mary Barra has to be the worst CEO of any automaker. Let’s review her accomplishments over the past 3 years.

1. Causing the longest UAW strike in 50 years

2. Doing zero due diligence in forming a partnership with Nikola a company who’s entire business was just a lie and fraud.

3. Refusing to build ventilators or in anyway help with COVID until they were forced to via defense act.

4. Managing to have every single EV her company has ever built recalled.

5. Launching the embarrassing hummer EV, a monstrosity that’s only slightly less terrible for the environment than the original Hummer. They could’ve built an actual electric pickup like Ford or Rivian for a reasonable price that consumers would want and be able to afford, but instead she builds this overpriced attention seeking monstrosity.

6. Managed to lose GM’s sales crown to Toyota which GM had held for the last 90 years including when they went bankrupt.
 
Ya, how about the 10 yr yield about to crack 1.8%. That thing's a headwind.
How will we ever cope with 10 yr at 1.8%!!!? We are doomed!

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1000% agree and I believe this aspect is hugely underappreciated in the TSLA investor community. Every time the share price got ahead of itself, Elon brought it down through various means. He definitely does not want it to take off big time for the reasons laid out in this post, plus the fact that too high a stock price reduces the focus of the employees since it becomes the #1 talking point at every corner. not good for culture.

His interest is likely more in a low stock price (but not too low to demotivate employees) than a high one.

Just a slow and steady earned reward is what I’d suspect he’d prefer. Heck it’s what we should all prefer unless we’re looking for the exits soon or speculating/trading.

You could even make the argument that of the extremes in share price swings, a wildly exuberant stock price is now actually more detrimental to a cash-rich and massively expanding Tesla than a depressed stock price. It a) may dampen recruiting efforts, especially where top talent is required e.g. robotics and b) may cause increased turnover as employees are able to retire early. I love personal stories of financial freedom as much as anyone, but Tesla also needs to retain at least some talent for continuity and leadership. Otherwise for talented engineers the whole thing turns into: do a short tour of duty at Tesla and then retire/pursue other passions. If that cycle is too short then you have a talent retention problem. How many will keep grinding away at the mission after not needing to work a real job anymore? Probably not as many as you’d like.
 
I don't care what any textbook might say - selling stock in a company like Tesla that is growing 50+% a year because interest rates might go up 0.25% or so is stupid beyond belief.
So your saying I shouldnt move my money into interest bearing accounts and treasury bills when I can invest in Tesla? Isnt that extra interest worth not having the short term risk?