Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Which would be how many weeks in a row SOMEBODY claimed Austin was just about to open?

yeah but... Each person that claims that is opening is providing a better guess than the last.

 

[samppa]

Tesla told us that they are superior. Heck, structural pack alone is a big improvement, even if range is kept constant. For me as someone with a Y on order, I want the extra longevity that has been hinted at.


Maybe I wasn't clear but we agree. You make the 4680 cars a premium offering.

This got me thinking: if 4680 Y with structural pack is more efficient, will they reduce pack capacity? Would keep range the same.
You'd get more cars from same amount of cells, also wouldn't osbourne 2170 cars.

 

[deffu]

yeah but... Each person that claims that is opening is providing a better guess than the last.

Those fanboys r too high. It is said em is flying to Berlin this week. Something might happen

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

OT but... Cybertruck is MEGA bricks, not LEGO.
Much panel gap.
1 box to go.

Mega is to Lego what a GM EV is to Tesla.

 

[Andy O]

Only when the pack is very cold, or at a very high SOC, does Telsa's BMS restrict regen power (the icon shown on the display).

the LFP battery pack, linked to "On the day of the test, the road conditions were wet and temperatures ranged between -4°C and -7°C (25°F and 19°F)."

They call that cold? This morning the temperature here rose to -27°C. I have restricted regen power all winter.

One morning last week, at -29°C, I had a remaining range of 0, which leaped to 94 km after I forced a little electricity into the car.

I would like to know what lithium-iron batteries can do in true cold.

 

[MC3OZ]

but what did it cost GM? and what else could they do for now?

I'm about to speculate about 4680 rollout (be forewarned). Maybe I have some assumptions out of place, so feel free to adjust my understanding.

I often ponder how/when Tesla sneaks in the 4680, and I do mean sneak. I think it will be right under our noses to prevent a lapse in deliveries as many might cancel or push it out (Osborn). The moment anyone knows they are being delivered, I bet they will already be out there and unlocked together with a tweet. The cushion of time is in how fast someone can rip one apart (Sandy for example) for the truth. Maybe easier ways to know from drones or ?

Imagine if I got a Model Y with 4680s and your's was still on order. You'd have only one question, right? Tesla has been known to reveal features after the cars are already in the wild, then out of the blue we get range increase or something.

So I think the transition will be very quick out of need to balance production. And when deliveries are pulled in or pushed out, maybe that's where the great divide happens. And it could be regional if maybe Canada needs better cold weather range support, who knows. In other words maybe you're pushed out to get the 4680's (obviously many other variables and you're one data point).

I'm personally interested in an upgrade to 4680's. With Tesla's having excellent resale today, but potentially lower resale value once new batteries are out, I don't see a way to skip that depreciation hit without selling now and waiting for confirmed 4680s. This all could happen in the next few weeks for all we know pending a couple of factories opening up. Lots of buildings/factories seems to be popping up lately without much explanation.

Another other approach might be to acknowledge 4680 for an upgrade $$$, but with initially limited power, range, charging even though still improving existing specs. Then, once completely transitioned, they flip the switch and make our old ones look like Model T's so to speak. It can be expensive chasing the tech, but we're talking about batteries as it relates to all things performance. Do we even have data on charging speeds yet for 4680s? Are they better in the cold?

Oh, and HODL. This thing's a pressure cooker. Do you hear the whistle?

During the transition it is very likely that a Model Y with 4680 batteries will perform identically to a Model Y with 2170s.

Kato Rd or some other facilty could supply 4680 batteries for Fremont Model Y.

Somehow Shanghai made Model Y will transition to 4680 batteries with front and rear castings.

Fremont and Shanghai may not be able to do the fancy new colors.

Cybertruck will come with 4680s from day 1.

For all other Models we know nothing about when they will transition to 4680s.

I think that we will find that a new Model Y with 4680s will supercharge identically to an older Model Y with 2170s initially.

You are right to asume faster charging might be unlocked at some future date.
But currently customers order a Model Y with no ability to specify the battery type, most customers will not be across this issue.

IMO the transition will sail though seamlessly under the radar, very few people will know anything about it and most will not care.

 

[canoemore]

Maybe if we see an otherwise inexplicable reduction in CoGS that will be a clue as to 4680 introduction.

 

[samppa]

They call that cold? This morning the temperature here rose to -27°C. I have restricted regen power all winter.

One morning last week, at -29°C, I had a remaining range of 0, which leaped to 94 km after I forced a little electricity into the car.

I would like to know what lithium-iron batteries can do in true cold.

they work fine. some issues when they first started importing lfp model 3 here, but ota updates fixed them.
And yes, temps here in scandinavia are similar to yours.

 

[JRP3]

For me as someone with a Y on order, I want the extra longevity that has been hinted at.

How long do you intend to keep the Y? You can always sell the Y and buy a newer one, probably not for much of a price difference.

 

[SOULPEDL]

OT but... Cybertruck is MEGA bricks, not LEGO.
Much panel gap.
1 box to go.

Darn, and I couldn't fix it in time. (Sorry MEGA Bricks).
Early Photo? We're still on box #1.

 

[MC3OZ]

We have been told that 4680 with structural batteries will last longer, be lighter, more rigid, etc. We all cheered for the new technology. But now everyone is telling me "meh, nobody cares. 2710 cars are just as good". Does not compute.


That's exactly what I'm suggesting! Surely they will also be building 2170s in Austin too, at least for the next couple years.

Tesla is still cell constrained.

Using LFP batteries in Model 3s might free up some 2170s. But we don't know what cells the Semi is using.

My tentative hunch is that all Model Ys made at Austin will have 4680s. Initially these will be higher priced trims. All other Model Ys will come from Fremont, so cars might be shipped from Fremont to the east coast during the transition.

Battery Day was mostly about solving the problem of being cell constrained and lowering battery costs. A structural battery pack had some advantages for car handling.

We don't know if 4680s will last longer than 2170s.

We don't know how much silicon is in a 4680 anode. I think that will be the most interesting part of any 4680 teardown, the chemical composition of the cells.

Tesla will ensure that 4860 cars Supercharge at the same speed. Handling will be harder to disquise. The best way to identify a 4680 Model Y might be to drive it, but even here Tesla can control attributes via software.

 

[EVDRVN]

Regen efficency has nothing to do with Max bty charge rate. It's losses in the tires, drivetrain, and power electronics.

Current 3/Y LR packs can charge at at least 150KW even at >50% SOC. Do the math. That's far in excess of the power required to decelerate the car. Only when the pack is very cold, or at a very high SOC, does Telsa's BMS restrict regen power (the icon shown on the display).


You're not wrong!

World's largest EV never has to be recharged

The eDumper makes a good case for going fully electric with heavy-duty construction, mining, and industrial equipment.

www.greencarreports.com

Cheers!

Of course regen potential is the output of the motor. I drove one of the very first Tesla derive prototypes with full regen and it is like slamming on the brakes to 2 MPH util the field brakes and releases.

 

[RobDickinson]

Tesla is still cell constrained.

Using LFP batteries in Model 3s might free up some 2170s. But we don't know what cells the Semi is using.

Semi is 4680 for sure.

LFP will free up a lot of 2170s for other cars, all the standard range cars will use them soon (if not already) plus stationary storage.

Austin will start with 4680 model Y probably performance models, theres potential for a new longer range vehicle but that might wait until Berlin gets its own 4680 supply in mid 2022.

 

[Pezpunk]

i love that we're so used to this silliness that a 70-point daily swing goes practically uncommented on. Zero panic in our game. We've been here so many times before.

 

[RobDickinson]

3% gain is a quiet day... nuts on a $1t company.


As for regen, plaid with track mode is hitting 180-190kw now, which is impressive!

 

[JustMe]

…While I want them to ship yesterday and pop the champagne, 4680s will be the single biggest change to the automotive industry in history (my opinion) …

I mean, I would have gone with power windows, but the death knell of the internal combustion engine is pretty big too

 

[thesmokingman]

lol, who turned the market back on? Simon says go!

 

[Phobi]

Wow. Gotta say...the stonk has spunk.

 

[ke6jph]

Been done for about 2 weeks………….

 

[Todd Burch]

I knew today was going to start rough and, not having any dry powder to deploy, I didn't look at the ticker until just now.

I feel better now than I did this morning .