insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Boy, sure hoping @tivoboy is wrong this time....
Volume was just under 25M today...well within MM range
Volume was just under 25M today...well within MM range
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I know you have a decent track record but that sounds incredibly unlikely given the ER we have coming next week?
Tivoboy will be right if the Macros shred regardless of TSLA results.I know you have a decent track record but that sounds incredibly unlikely given the ER we have coming next week?
QQQs get taken down 5 to 10 % in the next week and TSLA will follow in multiples with maybe a break for stellar earnings (which would have to be ridiculous for anyone to notice).
I feel like QQQs will bounce, but all I got is feelings, and furthermore, how can they resume going back up so close to record highs still with interest rates rising? Blowout earning from many companies across the board might be support, but it does not seem anyone is paying attention right now.
I agree. Without pd, tsla would have already been dragged down under 1000. So sad the pd pimp only lived 1 day.
If we get news on giga Texas or Berlin by er, we may get some relief. But earning is pretty much priced in. Whisper number is much higher than street concensus
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Product roadmap update in general is likely to generate some movement one way or the other...and If Elon says anything that can be even vaguely misunderstood to mean further CT delays that'll be the headline no matter how good earnings are.
We’ll yes, 8XX would start somewhere between 9-10% from these levels. Let me ask the gallery, if we move down via either market or bear raid to say $940, does it seem a real stretch at that point that $900 won’t be breached again? Ask yourself, are the market conditions BETTER today than they were back 12/21/21? Are the expectations for production and earnings BETTER today than three and a half weeks ago? At this point I think any of that is baked in.
Yes at that time, there was still an unknown principle holder selling then and for SURE the MM were front running this (I always thought announcing via a poll whether or not one should sell up to 10% of their stock by the end of a calendar year was a lark or sheer stupidity).. why wouldn’t they front run this?… they KNEW there was an incented SELLER, they knew the TIME FRAME and they knew the overall target VOLUME. “Give me a stopwatch and a map and I’ll fly the Alps in a plane with no windows!”
So while I know nobody wants to hear it (I’m sure nobody wanted to hear $345 for the near term top for MSFT or “insert your favorite Nasdaq stock here”)… we’re in a RESET. Good companies will be rewarded at some point, but I don‘t think we’re there yet.
As some have noted and @Papafox is now putting in his/her/their daily reports (if you’re NOT reading these, you can’t call yourself a TSLA investor) TSLA is one of if not THE most manipulated stocks there is. As i’ve said before it was the original MEME stock (for the past several years) for the upside call buying - creates delta / gamma / omicron hedge pull stock. Outside of really truly upside expectations and delivery, the MM who brought their war chests to play that game are lacking in spunk and putting their money either on the sidelines or elsewhere where they see either greater risk/reward or even upside. this will play out again, but I think this ROUND has played out for now and we can’t count on it creating undue upside movement other than very short term.
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I don't see the point in subsidies. I'd gut them all. EV's are here. Govt subsidies at this point only serve to protect weak OEMs that need to fail. At this point many OEMs have to fail in some manner. Either through mergers, bankruptcy, etc. They need to fail.
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Something to perhaps get our minds off today's Cassandra prophecies - this was in Bloomberg's "Hyperdrive" newsletter today: this is discussing the new SDI plant that many have stated is principally placed to provide Cybertruck steel:
"First, a bit of background about Steel Dynamics, also known as SDI. The company is building a new plant in Sinton, Texas, near the Gulf Coast. The facility is designed to produce 3 million tons of steel annually for construction, automotive, appliance and other manufacturing markets.
Steel Dynamics has billed its mill as capable of providing higher-strength, tougher grades of steel for the auto industry. “These ultra-high-strength steel products are not currently readily available from other domestic steel producers,” the company said
......
"The rumors aren’t true. “I can absolutely confirm we are NOT currently an approved supplier to that facility or that platform,” Barry Schneider, an SDI senior vice president, wrote to me last month in an email. “We will aspire to work towards becoming an approved supplier to Tesla for the products that we are capable of producing.”
In recent days, Teslarati, which describes itself as the leading source for Tesla news, rumors and reviews, once again ran a story that linked SDI to the Cybertruck. I checked in with Schneider to see if anything had changed and was assured nothing had. Teslarati has appended a correction to the top of its latest post, although the headline and text still inexplicably refer to SDI as a supplier to Tesla and the Cybertruck. Earlier erroneous posts about SDI remain on the site.
Musk first unveiled the Cybertruck in November 2019. It’s going to feature a stainless-steel exoskeleton the company promotes as “nearly impenetrable.” The type of steel SDI will be making in Texas is different.
“Stainless steel is not something we have ever discussed being equipped to produce,” SDI’s Schneider told me this weekend."
"First, a bit of background about Steel Dynamics, also known as SDI. The company is building a new plant in Sinton, Texas, near the Gulf Coast. The facility is designed to produce 3 million tons of steel annually for construction, automotive, appliance and other manufacturing markets.
Steel Dynamics has billed its mill as capable of providing higher-strength, tougher grades of steel for the auto industry. “These ultra-high-strength steel products are not currently readily available from other domestic steel producers,” the company said
......
"The rumors aren’t true. “I can absolutely confirm we are NOT currently an approved supplier to that facility or that platform,” Barry Schneider, an SDI senior vice president, wrote to me last month in an email. “We will aspire to work towards becoming an approved supplier to Tesla for the products that we are capable of producing.”
In recent days, Teslarati, which describes itself as the leading source for Tesla news, rumors and reviews, once again ran a story that linked SDI to the Cybertruck. I checked in with Schneider to see if anything had changed and was assured nothing had. Teslarati has appended a correction to the top of its latest post, although the headline and text still inexplicably refer to SDI as a supplier to Tesla and the Cybertruck. Earlier erroneous posts about SDI remain on the site.
Musk first unveiled the Cybertruck in November 2019. It’s going to feature a stainless-steel exoskeleton the company promotes as “nearly impenetrable.” The type of steel SDI will be making in Texas is different.
“Stainless steel is not something we have ever discussed being equipped to produce,” SDI’s Schneider told me this weekend."
Friday is the big annual LEAP options expiration day. The hedge funds and market makers may want to keep TSLA channeled around $1000 until then. Many other stocks could be similarly constrained.
Sorry, but I sold about 7% of my TSLA position today to pay cash for my newly built home which closed today. I traded the shares this morning for a price around $1033. My current home of 5.5 years was put up for sale yesterday afternoon, resulting in six showings today, including one bid above my offering price so far. So, for now I own two homes paid for by TSLA. That may not be for long.
Sorry, but I sold about 7% of my TSLA position today to pay cash for my newly built home which closed today. I traded the shares this morning for a price around $1033. My current home of 5.5 years was put up for sale yesterday afternoon, resulting in six showings today, including one bid above my offering price so far. So, for now I own two homes paid for by TSLA. That may not be for long.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, MMs had strong motivation to see the SP below $1,000 to kill the Calls at that Strike...
But are you expecting to see the gap filled to $940 (from the Close on Dec 21, 2021)? Lower-BB currently at $957 is in the way, but shortzes are known to overshoot briefly to touch their tgt SP:
IMO this is JPMorgan's (and their ilk's) gambit: Price of crude goes up, they get money to burn thrown at them bashing TSLA (FUD campaign included). Dead give away is the technical targets being used for shorting: $1,030 support, $940 gap fill, wedgies, ad naseum. This is a paid (crude) hit job, carried out by Wall St. thugs-for-hire.
No matter. Tesla's fundamentals are so strong now that they have achieved escape velocity. Tesla NO LONGER needs Wall St, but shortzes desparately need TSLA: it's their main source of income.
Let's see Tesla do something creative and surprising with all that FCF. Burn da shortzes!
Cheers!
In order for the QQQ's and macro's to really dip farther, to the tune of 5-10%, it means big tech has to roll over in a big way as well. And sorry but except for Amazon who's having issues with their earnings right now, none of the big tech stocks are vulnerable.
Big Tech (Apple, Google, MSFT, etc..) are already very close to a 10% draw down, some are actually down 11%. There's limited contraction in their P/E multiples given how routinely they beat earnings by quite a bit. With earnings a week away, this is just a last attempt to stoke as much fear as possible.
Come next week, Wall St will suddenly say "Oh tech isn't overvalued. It can easily grow into it's valuation with a couple quarters"........and this will pass. Now for stocks that don't have strong earnings to fall back on, sure they could continue to get pummeled as they have been for the entire past year.
Having said all that, we'll probably be stuck in a 1,100-1,200 range for most of Q1. I expect trailing inflation data that shows how much Wall St is overreacting to start coming out in late Q1/early Q2.
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ZachF
Active Member
The market average is like 27 with a 7% CAGR. Tesla at 70 with a 50% CAGR is a steal, as it drops below the forward PE of the market as a whole in 2025, and it already has enough capacity in the works with Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin to reach that.
Tesla currently trades at ~10x my 2027 projected income. Remember when people used to say Tesla was overvalued in 2017 at ~$50b? That’s only 4x what 5 year future (ie this year) pe ended up being.
ZachF
Active Member
TBH guys, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market/macros keep dumping as rates rise. As long as you have long term in mind it’s just more buying opportunities.
There was some talk about Tesla re-processing steel from SDI to improve the purity level.
Joe Tegtmeyer mentioned that one part of the Austin plant looks a bit like part of the SDI facility, so maybe Tesla is doing some processing of material for the Cybertruck body, allowing them to use a greater range of suppliers? I know this is unlikely, but I would not 100% rule it out.
When Elon gives the product roadmap, it is almost certain give provide a timeline for Cybertruck and the semi. IMO we can trust any new timeline is reasonably accurate.
Right now, that sounds pretty good
feeling The pulse of the crowd here.
I have about 1M in various stocks ranging from TQQQ, vanguard ETFs, nvidia, BTCC, ETHH, XPEV, BYD, NIO, ARKK, ARKW, ARKF which have all underperformed TSLA. With the recent TSLA pullback, I am thinking about liquidating all my holding and purchase Jan 2024 LEAPS.
I was ordering what is the rationale behind the gold strike to chose, the right IV to get in. Would today be a good time? Wait a little bit more?
share your not advices LEAP owners!
I have about 1M in various stocks ranging from TQQQ, vanguard ETFs, nvidia, BTCC, ETHH, XPEV, BYD, NIO, ARKK, ARKW, ARKF which have all underperformed TSLA. With the recent TSLA pullback, I am thinking about liquidating all my holding and purchase Jan 2024 LEAPS.
I was ordering what is the rationale behind the gold strike to chose, the right IV to get in. Would today be a good time? Wait a little bit more?
share your not advices LEAP owners!
I would be perfectly happy for us to be range-bound between $1,100 and $1,200 the rest of the quarter. Get me out of my BPSs which I've rolled now for two weeks and allow me to open more.Right now, that sounds pretty good
Yeah, like I said I think a bounce is due.
Was simply describing a scenario where Tivoboy is on target. He is looking for a 10 to 20 % further decline in TSLA in the next two weeks through earnings. This could definitely happen with continued macros getting shredded. But I think we are near a short term bottom at least. OTOH, tomorrow we wake up limit down…. Well most of us have been there before
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