Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Another week, another fraud:

Faraday Future chairman, executives step down following internal preorder review

Its founder and CEO will both take a 25% salary reduction, as well.

www.cnet.com

 

[EVDRVN]

I think it does make sense to include power outlets and a small inverter for convenience. I would like to see a high amperage 12V outlet too. Vehicle to grid is a different use story and complicated by so many safety, regulatory and infrastructure issues it's not practical to implement at this time. Or, put another way, Tesla has pick and choose their battles and how they deploy their resources. And, indeed, Tesla has already promised 120V and 240V outlets on their next vehicle, the Cybertruck. In the future I bet it's a profitable option all their vehicles.

If you want hot water, the 120V outlets should be more than one 15 amp. outlet, preferably 240V. How much hot water do you think 120V @ 15 amps is going to get you in an hour? Not even enough to take a warm bath or shower unless your water supply is already tepid which is not the normal situation in areas where Tesla are sold. If all you want is tea or coffee, fine. Power outlets are super easy to implement relative to Tesla doing VTG which involves all kinds of new software and hardware on the grid side for integration.

240V makes little sense in NA, a 20A 120V would be the sweet spot as cost of BOM goes up high after that. Not everyone uses electric heaters for water nor does anyone have a plug on their hot water heater. Use case is computer, fridige, etc not super high amp draw water heater. A setup like this is a huge revenue opportunity as an option that would have very high take up rates, an easy $500-$900 more per vehicle profit.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Was talking to a guy about the Texas grid outages, so I thought I'd dig around a bit to see what the opportunity looks like for Tesla Energy.

What could Texas have done last year to help avert similar issues this year? Obviously their solution is megapacks, so I went onto the Tesla site to order some. $1B gets you 1,000 megapacks(770MW/3080MWh) of battery storage installed in Texas by Tesla. That seems expensive, but you have to factor in that probably saves the Texas grid ~$50-100M in frequency and ancillary services every year. Then you add in the storage benefits to a Texas grid with massive cheap wind and solar.....these battery packs would pay themselves off in 5-8 years at most.

Texas should have done that in 2021, then doubled their order every year til the grid is eventually balanced, fully decentralized, and ultra-resilient. The DoE would happily finance it and ratepayers wouldn't end up paying a dime. In a messed up grid like Texas batteries don't "cost" anything, the savings more than makes up for the pricetag. And that's likely true all the way thru to 120% wind/solar/battery.

Taken seriously and executed as if this were an actual emergency, starting such a project in 2021 probably gets the whole Texas grid transitioned in 10-12 years. Obviously the oil & gas industry would never let this happen, but Texas ratepayers need to understand it's doable and they'd likely not pay one incremental dime for the entire transition. They can order the first year's 1,000 megapacks literally right off the website today.

TSLA investors need to understand the opportunity as well. Texas alone is probably $100B worth of orders and another $100-500M in basic maintenance services each year forever. Each % of this global market is astronomically valuable.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Admin: Elon how do you do it? How do you get around chip shortages and other auto manufacturers having a hard time.
Elon: We are not just an auto manufacturer we are a professional software engineering company that has competent staff who can rapidly develop new software. Not a bunch of old COBOL programmers who just want to make it to retirement.

There's nothing wrong with just wanting to make it to retirement.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Time to end the V2G discussion. It’s been going on for way too long and is not making any progress. And no, FSD is not a good substitute.

 

[Jack6591]

NO, I DO NOT BELIEVE TESLA SHOULD ADVERTISE TO SELL CARS.

YES, I BELIEVE TESLA SHOULD CREATE A REALITY-BASED NARRATIVE TO COUNTER FUD.

 

[stealthyc]

How are AMZN expectations so low? I know supply chain issues were insane in 4Q, but $3.58/share? If 1Q22 reverts back to just the earnings performance of 1Q21, that's $15.79/share. Lol! Interesting times.

Amazon re-guided earlier in the quarter, I assume expectations are based on that

 

[thx1139]

There's nothing wrong with just wanting to make it to retirement.

Nope not at all, lets just not think that the software engineers applying to Tesla and getting positions would ever apply for positions at GM. Used to be the GM of a consulting organization and we had location near GM and Ford facilities. None of our software engineers ever wanted to go on assignment for GM or Ford.

 

[WarpedOne]

There is no countering FUD as there is no destroying of stupid.

Both is here to stay, concentrate on your work.

 

[Mengy]

There is no countering FUD as there is no destroying of stupid.

FUD is transitory, Tesla's strengths are not. Financials and production will overcome any FUD in time.

 

[GLDYLX]

I've fallen behind again, but the headlines have inspired the following "blurt". My apologies if it's already been covered.

Hey NHTSA, thank you!!!

Thank you for all of the SPECIAL attention you are paying to Tesla, helping them improve their software, showing the world how Tesla cars improve through over-the-air updates, teaching everyone that recalls don't HAVE to involve massive time sucks, travel and dealer upsell attempts.

Your focus on Tesla is all but guaranteeing that the world will know that Tesla is earning its position as the best auto manufacturer in the world, and your continued aid in discovering/solving potential software issues will help them keep it.

Sure, trumpeting headlines about Tesla recalls creates volatility in the share price, but since Tesla is capable of self-funding for the foreseeable future, the short term volatility doesn't actually hurt the company, so GO FOR IT, if you somehow benefit from shining such a bright spotlight on Tesla. You are providing smart investors with opportunities to buy TSLA at a hefty discount.

Of course, you DO realize that you could be accused of favoritism, if you're not dedicating an equivalent amount of time and effort to improving ALL of the OEMs....... You could probably even be SUED for trying to manipulate the auto industry by choosing who succeeds in this period of transition......

Just trying to return the favor.... I truly hope you are able to give the other OEMs the attention they deserve. They could really use the help.


PS: Do I need the "/s" thingy? It's really more snark than sarc....... Well, here it is, just in case. /s

 

[Paul_SF]

Was talking to a guy about the Texas grid outages, so I thought I'd dig around a bit to see what the opportunity looks like for Tesla Energy.

What could Texas have done last year to help avert similar issues this year? Obviously their solution is megapacks, so I went onto the Tesla site to order some. $1B gets you 1,000 megapacks(770MW/3080MWh) of battery storage installed in Texas by Tesla. That seems expensive, but you have to factor in that probably saves the Texas grid ~$50-100M in frequency and ancillary services every year. Then you add in the storage benefits to a Texas grid with massive cheap wind and solar.....these battery packs would pay themselves off in 5-8 years at most.

Texas should have done that in 2021, then doubled their order every year til the grid is eventually balanced, fully decentralized, and ultra-resilient. The DoE would happily finance it and ratepayers wouldn't end up paying a dime. In a messed up grid like Texas batteries don't "cost" anything, the savings more than makes up for the pricetag. And that's likely true all the way thru to 120% wind/solar/battery.

Taken seriously and executed as if this were an actual emergency, starting such a project in 2021 probably gets the whole Texas grid transitioned in 10-12 years. Obviously the oil & gas industry would never let this happen, but Texas ratepayers need to understand it's doable and they'd likely not pay one incremental dime for the entire transition. They can order the first year's 1,000 megapacks literally right off the website today.

TSLA investors need to understand the opportunity as well. Texas alone is probably $100B worth of orders and another $100-500M in basic maintenance services each year forever. Each % of this global market is astronomically valuable.

Elon did reply to a question about Tesla Energy as “probably it will be bigger than the Tesla Cars”. He’s probably right.


“Most people have no idea” - Elon Musk

Edit: it will be so fun to see everyone scrambling, again, when this “coil” will make another monstrous “spring”. Spring is coming, fast!

 

[Drumheller]

Shadowstats, if I saw it correctly, estimates inflation at about 15%, which seems accurate to what I'm seeing in my personal budget. With stimulus ending, poor and lower middle class are rapidly losing any spending power. Many people that were treading water living paycheck to paycheck are now under water (seeing this, too)

I think that situation hurts Amazon's short term future outlook. I think it also points to a recession.

I don't think this should have a significant impact on Tesla or TSLA but I don't think wall street will agree with me. I anticipate TSLA will suffer if Amazon's outlook isn't rosy

 

[Cherry Wine]

I've fallen behind again, but the headlines have inspired the following "blurt". My apologies if it's already been covered.

Hey NHTSA, thank you!!!

Thank you for all of the SPECIAL attention you are paying to Tesla, helping them improve their software, showing the world how Tesla cars improve through over-the-air updates, teaching everyone that recalls don't HAVE to involve massive time sucks, travel and dealer upsell attempts.

Your focus on Tesla is all but guaranteeing that the world will know that Tesla is earning its position as the best auto manufacturer in the world, and your continued aid in discovering/solving potential software issues will help them keep it.

Sure, trumpeting headlines about Tesla recalls creates volatility in the share price, but since Tesla is capable of self-funding for the foreseeable future, the short term volatility doesn't actually hurt the company, so GO FOR IT, if you somehow benefit from shining such a bright spotlight on Tesla. You are providing smart investors with opportunities to buy TSLA at a hefty discount.

Of course, you DO realize that you could be accused of favoritism, if you're not dedicating an equivalent amount of time and effort to improving ALL of the OEMs....... You could probably even be SUED for trying to manipulate the auto industry by choosing who succeeds in this period of transition......

Just trying to return the favor.... I truly hope you are able to give the other OEMs the attention they deserve. They could really use the help.

I think all of these nonsense recalls are making people numb to the headlines. NHTSA is turning into the boy who cried "recall".

 

[Artful Dodger]

I BELIEVE TESLA SHOULD CREATE A REALITY-BASED NARRATIVE TO COUNTER FUD.

But they ARE creating a reality-based narrative to counter fud: it's called TESLA.

The recipe is tested, the ingredients are mixed, and the cake is in the oven. You just have to be patient.

Cheers!

 

[MP3Mike]

Hey NHTSA, thank you!!!

Thank you for all of the SPECIAL attention you are paying to Tesla, helping them improve their software, showing the world how Tesla cars improve through over-the-air updates, teaching everyone that recalls don't HAVE to involve massive time sucks, travel and dealer upsell attempts.

But NHTSA had nothing to do with this recall. From the details, here is the timeline:

Chronology :

• On January 6, 2022, the South Korea Automobile Testing & Research Institute (KATRI) brought the condition and limited circumstances to Tesla’s attention.
• From January 10, 2022 to January 22, 2022, the Tesla vehicle software and homologation teams investigated the condition and scope of vehicles that were potentially impacted by it.
• On January 25, 2022, Tesla reviewed the investigative findings and determined that the condition is a noncompliance. A recall determination was voluntarily made the same day.
• As of January 31, 2022, Tesla is not aware of any warranty claims, field reports, crashes, injuries or fatalities related to the condition.

In this case KATRI noticed the problem and let Tesla know. Tesla confirmed it and issued a voluntary recall before NHTSA probably even knew anything was going on. That is how things are supposed to work.

 

[growler23]

Was talking to a guy about the Texas grid outages, so I thought I'd dig around a bit to see what the opportunity looks like for Tesla Energy.

What could Texas have done last year to help avert similar issues this year? Obviously their solution is megapacks, so I went onto the Tesla site to order some. $1B gets you 1,000 megapacks(770MW/3080MWh) of battery storage installed in Texas by Tesla. That seems expensive, but you have to factor in that probably saves the Texas grid ~$50-100M in frequency and ancillary services every year. Then you add in the storage benefits to a Texas grid with massive cheap wind and solar.....these battery packs would pay themselves off in 5-8 years at most.

Texas should have done that in 2021, then doubled their order every year til the grid is eventually balanced, fully decentralized, and ultra-resilient. The DoE would happily finance it and ratepayers wouldn't end up paying a dime. In a messed up grid like Texas batteries don't "cost" anything, the savings more than makes up for the pricetag. And that's likely true all the way thru to 120% wind/solar/battery.

Taken seriously and executed as if this were an actual emergency, starting such a project in 2021 probably gets the whole Texas grid transitioned in 10-12 years. Obviously the oil & gas industry would never let this happen, but Texas ratepayers need to understand it's doable and they'd likely not pay one incremental dime for the entire transition. They can order the first year's 1,000 megapacks literally right off the website today.

TSLA investors need to understand the opportunity as well. Texas alone is probably $100B worth of orders and another $100-500M in basic maintenance services each year forever. Each % of this global market is astronomically valuable.

Yes, yes, and yes! And Texas is one of the few places that could easily pull this off decision-wise due to our largely independent grid. "Pays off in 5-8 years" means "your investment earns 12-20%" when translated to Texan .

Clean grid, resilient winter-proofed grid, and call it a 16% return on investment? THAT is a petition I would sign as a our governor's election race heats up.

The bummer is that our CURRENT state government is busy passing things like "municipalities can't ban natural gas, anywhere, ever". So decision-wise we are in a challenging place.

 

[mongo]

I think all of these nonsense recalls are making people numb to the headlines. NHTSA is turning into the boy who cried "recall".

Yes, Tesla had already deployed the fix before this news broke. Yes, it is a rareish edge case with two other levels of driver alert. But this was a defect and this is the way the defect reporting and resolving process works.

Cars that do not meet all the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards cannot be sold in the US.
Minor or not, the chime edge case, discovered by South Korea Automobile Testing & Research Institute during homologination testing, shows Tesla vehicles fail FMVSS 208. The proper approach to this is the one taken by Tesla which is to inform NHTSA of the nonconfirmity and start recall campaign.

Tesla created the recall.

 

[tivoboy]

NHTSA and DOT and others just need a new WORD in their vocabulary to describe when a car needs to have it serviced with some urgency..

Currently, the only word they really have is RECALL. With the new world of OTA updates for ALL cars (its not just going to be full EV/BEV/PHEV that can/should get OTA updates) they need something like

MANDATORY UPDATE REQUIRED
URGENT UPDATE REQUIRED
OTA UPDATE REQUIRED

For users at least, maybe that means they just pop over to their cars service settings and hit the BRS. Trouble is, with OTHER OEM, I’m sure some of this stuff is going to be a for FEE service, unlike Tesla where very little is FEE for update or service.

 

[replicant]

U.S. Car Prices Have Passed Their Peak, Sellers Say