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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Don't know if this is accurate but interesting if true:

Tesla equipped with BYD blade battery was originally planned to be mass-produced in Q2, but the blade battery was found to be substandard in Supercharging test. BYD modified the diaphragm design of the cell to meet 170 kW capacity. The final mass production time is also delayed.

 
This might be correct if it weren't for the massive gaps between Superchargers in the central part of North America--particularly if you are traveling north-south rather than east-west. One Supercharger location out means that you had better have a long range Tesla to have a chance of making it to the next Supercharger. The FindUs page doesn't show any near term improvements, so it will be years before this plan would have a chance of working.
We definitely have some holes here too. Mostly the E/W corridors between smaller cities.

I spend most of my time with 240 miles effective range though because I frequently travel with 2 bikes on the back. I bump into occasional issues, but mostly it’s fine. You just have to be a little more aware if you are travelling on the routes where things are tight.
 
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We definitely have some holes here too. Mostly the E/W corridors between smaller cities.

I spend most of my time with 240 miles effective range though because I frequently travel with 2 bikes on the back. I bump into occasional issues, but mostly it’s fine. You just have to be a little more aware if you are travelling on the routes where things are tight.
Electrify America isn’t stepping up to fill the gaps?
 
Electrify America isn’t stepping up to fill the gaps?
If I could use EA chargers it would actually be a big help. There aren’t near as many of them, but often they are between Supercharger stations.

I’d buy a Tesla/ CCS adaptor. Would have saved me a 30 minute side trek when I was on the coast a couple weeks ago.
 
Tesla Daily (Rob Maurer) which is quite good for straight news and stock info.
Dave Lee on Investing which is hit or miss. Some truly fantastic stuff mixed with some very blah/ stuff. I keep the skip button handy and have no trouble just skipping whole episodes.
Ride the Lightning is passable. Sometimes the call-in sections are interesting, it’s almost like “Tesla for beginners”, but has some good stuff mixed in.

I’ve tried a few others, but none of them stuck. I will say I do occassionally listen to the Electrek podcast. The daily one which is just a quick rehash of news is ok. The longer one is mostly meh.
I agree those three are the best for Tesla news.

For general EV news, I think Transport Evolved does a good job. Nikki knows the cars inside and out and tries to be impartial.
 
Oh… well if you are going to talk about YouTube content absolutely must add The Limiting Factor and Munro Live to the list.

Well… if you want to nerd out on what makes your car tick anyhow. The Limiting Factor might just be the best researched chunk of battery nerdery on the planet. And it’s approachable for anyone.
Agee with the YouTube recommendations and comments from everyone.
The nerd in me must also add Ingineerix to the list, he’s done many deep dives into Tesla. His original tear down of a totaled 3 convinced to complete my Model 3 order (placed pre revel in 2016, received in 2018) even though I had never been near one before we picked it up.
(Thanks for the spellcheck DDucky, edit)
 
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I agree with all that, and I would add the Tesla Economist YouTube channel to that list. He can occasionally be overzealous; but generally carefully researched and efficiently presented, accurate information.
Yea, how could I forget about TE? You are right.

The problem with TE is that after listening to his excellent analysis you are tempted to forego food and shelter to buy more TSLA.
 
Looks like there's more to the story about the new Y model......or should I say model(s)?


Tesla applied for another EPA certification of another Y variant that is still waiting approval. Could it be the Plaid Y variant?

At this point, I'm just gonna give up the speculation. We should find out all about these 2 variants very soon, probably the beginning of April. Tesla might be waiting to announce anything until after Q1 is over as to not cause confusion and a logistics headache.

Also, I think everyone thinks the recent price hikes are nickel cost related but given the appearance of the 279 mile Y, it's much more likely they're making room for it (and the 2nd new variant) in the pricing structure. These variants have been planned for a while. They were shipped to the EPA back in Feb, meaning they were in the plan way, way before the recent Nickel price spike.
 
OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, etc. Try going north-south with even one of the Supercharger locations out of action (Especially Perry or Salina, both of which have been down on occasion--I know, I got stuck there). East-west isn't too bad, but North-South needs LR+ for normal unworried travel. Double this in winter, or with an older Tesla.


Done the Dakotas, but really all East/west. In fact most my travel is east/west it seems. Ha. I can appreciate what you’re saying. Just haven’t run into an issue yet. I also only recommend long range to people looking for a complete vehicle replacement.
 
Looks like there's more to the story about the new Y model......or should I say model(s)?


Tesla applied for another EPA certification of another Y variant that is still waiting approval. Could it be the Plaid Y variant?

At this point, I'm just gonna give up the speculation. We should find out all about these 2 variants very soon, probably the beginning of April. Tesla might be waiting to announce anything until after Q1 is over as to not cause confusion and a logistics headache.

Also, I think everyone thinks the recent price hikes are nickel cost related but given the appearance of the 279 mile Y, it's much more likely they're making room for it (and the 2nd new variant) in the pricing structure. These variants have been planned for a while. They were shipped to the EPA back in Feb, meaning they were in the plan way, way before the recent Nickel price spike.
Get out of here with your logic, everyone knows Tesla doesn’t make plans!
 
I only care about Y from A factory as an investor. Having reports of A deliveries will be good, make me happy.

As an owner, and a driver, I really care not. It is a bit akin to what grade of gas one puts in an ICE, or even diesel vs gas. A non issue as an owner, just a fact, not something that improves the ownership experience or happiness.

I think it is potentially a thing of beauty to consider how holdouts for A cars might actually be subject to FUD from some clever source, trying to delay or cancel orders, push them back, allow survival of other brands. Conspiricists here abound, and subtly the bulls are the FUDsters.

I am pretty sure these same Y waiters will become Yners and complain about panel gaps, fit finish, road noise, missing parts, etc.
The new Y will offer noticable benefits for owner experience. The average Tesla customer is attracted primarily by driving performance and charging performance.

The 4680 structural pack will make for a lighter and much stiffer chassis with a reduced polar moment of inertia, giving better handling, better acceleration/braking, and reduced NVH (noise, vibration & harshness).

The 4680s also will potentially triple supercharging speed.

And they'll last much longer with less range degradation, meaning owners can keep the car longer or sell at a higher residual value.

Also the Austin and Berlin Ys will have the new paint shop design which we've heard is amazing and if I remember correctly they showed an example at the Berlin festival.
 
is there a source for this? or how did you arrive at this figure?

Irrational hope is my answer. I see that number rising on each retelling and I've been back to the battery day presentation words and images and they don't say anything of the sort.

The story from battery day is that larger cells take longer to charge so they had to do something to offset that. Everyone ignores the negative factor and just tries to apply the positives.

They combine improvement metrics from multiple slides as if Tesla didn't already include the prior slides in the later slides. I think this is were the greatest disconnect is.

We have no idea how curves interact. We know Tesla went with 4680 so it's an improvement overall, but we don't know that it's a slight improvement in charging rates, a similar result with a different curve, or maybe it's just plain slower. I seriously doubt its a dramatic increase overall with no drawbacks.
 
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Tesla didnt talk about charging speeds at battery day as far as I remember.

The 4680 is all about cost per kwh really, both in cells and production investment.

The tabless design plus silicon etc could mean better cooling and faster charging but so far we don know.


Drew Baglino: (01:51:56)
And this was a evolutionary step going from 1865 to 2170, bringing 50% more energy into the cell. But when we look to the ideal cell design, if we were to do it ourselves, we need to go beyond just what we’re looking at us in front of us and study the full spectrum of options. So as you can see, we kind of swept the key figures of merit, how much we can reduce the cost and how much vehicle range increases as we change the outer diameter of the cell. We found a sweet spot somewhere around 46 millimeters. But it’s not just about a bigger form factor. Anybody could make a bigger form factor.

Elon Musk: (01:52:37)
Any fool, any fool could make a bigger form factor. Are we not any fool?

Drew Baglino: (01:52:42)
Yeah, exactly. There are problems as you make cells larger. In fact, supercharging and thermals in general become really challenging as you make bigger cells. And this was the challenge that our team set our sights on to overcome. And we did, we came up with this tabless architecture that maybe you’ve heard about, that basically removes the thermal problem from the equation and allows us to go to the absolute lowest cost form factor and the simplest manufacturing process. And this is what we mean when we talk about tabless. It’s kind of a beautiful thing.


and back to me:

I say just because they "solved the problem" and thermals (heat) isn't a showstopper, that doesn't mean that supercharging will be noticeably faster or slower, just that it's going to be usable at a supercharger because they overcame a liability that a larger cell would have if made in the traditional methods.
 
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