Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Can we just not try to justify the drop in TSLA today?

Oil goes high, Tesla drops
Oil goes low, Tesla drops
10 year goes high, Tesla drops
10 year goes low, Tesla drops
Bitcoin goes up, Tesla drops
Bitcoin goes down, Tesla drop

Apple who’s production is directly affect by the Covid China lockdown is only down 1% while Tesla is down 3% even though it’s factory is not shutting down.

Seeing a pattern? There’s nothing to comment on about price movements at this point because the stock is trading in its downtrend. I pointed out last week if it didn’t hold a key level that there would be another push down. The stock is just going to be continually pushed down until Wall St determine its time to reverse it.

Elon’s tweets certainly make it easier for them. Sure would nice if he could just restrain himself for a little while until the stock isn’t ya know down 40%

If, according to you, it doesn’t matter than logically he should just tweet away and hasten the SP decline so that WS can sooner determine bottom and people can move on with their lives instead of looking for a reason for today’s, tomorrow’s, next week’s decline. A thousand cuts or a slit wrist? I vote for the latter because you’re all so tiresome at this point. At least when the SP goes up, people start drinking and life gets fun again.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Mock Elon for his tweets all you want, but today he joined the lofty list of the top 10 most followed twitter accounts.
No other COO, business magnet, tehnoking, or active leader of a country has more.
Truly a powerful position, and I am happy he puts it to such wise use ;-)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

That's a crazy risky lottery gamble IMHO. Too great a chance the market will crater till past expiration. I'm looking for when to buy January 2024 LEAPS, and even with 22 months, I worry about the same thing if I don't buy carefully.

Historically, even if there is a recession, the market is well ahead of it. As in the market sells off well before the actual recession and usually bottoms right at the beginning or the first part of a recession. So depending on what LEAP strike price you're buying, it's pretty illogical to think the market is still going to be in the current state it is in 22 months. And if it did, Tesla's earnings will be exponentially higher than they are today.

It's hard to know at what metric TSLA becomes so cheap that it's forced higher by value investors buying in mass. I still think a Forward P/E of 50 is a level that would put TSLA at such a insanely cheap valuation it would cause that dynamic and at this share price today with my expectations for Q1 earnings, it's currently trading below a Forward P/E of 50.

Obviously do at your own comfort level, but anyone with a 2 year horizon and buying LEAPS for that 2 year horizon are being very sound and smart investors.

 

[DFibRL8R]

Mock Elon for his tweets all you want, but today he joined the lofty list of the top 10 most followed twitter accounts.
No other COO, business magnet, tehnoking, or active leader of a country has more.
Truly a powerful position, and I am happy he puts it to such wise use ;-)

Lofty indeed! He is right between Ellen Degeneres and Lady Gaga!

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm Ok w/ Elon's challenge with Putin. The fight location is not set and the world wants Putin dead (which is why he's sitting cross table from all humans, including his own). Putin's the target and Elon knows it. Putin cannot respond or accept, but if he does, I recommend the UK location for the fight. I'm sure he's welcome there. Folks, this is a non-starter but it helps to point out how Putin is a Chicken Sh... Punching the bully in the nose. And if Putin were to poison... oh man, biggest chicken on the planet! Ain't gonna happen for the same reason big oil hasn't done it either. He'd become a Jesus-like figure and a bigger problem for them and Putin IMHO.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Lofty indeed! He is right between Ellen Degeneres and Lady Gaga!

Trump will be put to dust in a few months, and after that there is a clear path to overthrowing Obama from his twitter throne. World domination!

 

[Cherry Wine]

Hmmm, seems that this has the potential to materially affect Tesla (and TSLA) if it spirals into a spat of retaliatory Western-Chinese sanctions. (Also, I can already imagine Elon's series of hot takes on Twitter in response.)

EDIT: Doesn't seem to be a coincidence that TSLA (and markets) renewed its drop in sync with this headline.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503412813120876545

Worth noting that US doesn't think China has committed to helping - yet.

The cables, which were sent by the US state department to allies in Europe and Asia, did not say whether China had signalled that it would help Russia in the future or if it had already started providing military support. Nor did they say at which point in the conflict Beijing appeared open to offering the help.

 

[Skryll]

Anyone who thinks they know the answer could probably use a little more hubris.

Can never have enough hubris

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Historically, even if there is a recession, the market is well ahead of it. As in the market sells off well before the actual recession and usually bottoms right at the beginning or the first part of a recession. So depending on what LEAP strike price you're buying, it's pretty illogical to think the market is still going to be in the current state it is in 22 months. And if it did, Tesla's earnings will be exponentially higher than they are today.

It's hard to know at what metric TSLA becomes so cheap that it's forced higher by value investors buying in mass. I still think a Forward P/E of 50 is a level that would put TSLA at such a insanely cheap valuation it would cause that dynamic and at this share price today with my expectations for Q1 earnings, it's currently trading below a Forward P/E of 50.

Obviously do at your own comfort level, but anyone with a 2 year horizon and buying LEAPS for that 2 year horizon are being very sound and smart investors.

GOOG is sitting at -2.3% today with a similar chart to TSLA. Their PE is a ridiculous 22.7 per Yahoo finance. If I'm not mistaken they're nearing an all-time low PE of 21.xx and this is in a year with something like 40%y-o-y earnings growth each quarter.

Wall Street needs to load up on all these guys at some point. Another month at this SP and GOOG will have an actual PE <20. of course the current "Wall Street consensus" for GOOG 1Q earnings is lower than any of the last 4 actual quarters of earnings. Lol

 

[Ogre]

And if Putin were to poison... oh man, biggest chicken on the planet! Ain't gonna happen for the same reason big oil hasn't done it either. He'd become a Jesus-like figure and a bigger problem for them and Putin IMHO.

I'm not worried about the Putin throw down either. But I do not agree with this logic at all.

The world doesn't need an EV Jesus, we need a bad-ass engineer genius.

Living, ass-kicking Musk is much much better for the world than Jesus Elon.



PS: Not literal ass-kicking I am not encouraging fisticuffs here.

 

[Drax7]

Growth stocks are getting liquidated
irrespective of growth prospects
and P/E ratio .

The Market fears a recession as a confluence
of events imply greater risk of an economic downturn.

Cash depreciates, bonds yield nothing and stocks are risky.
Never seen this scenario where there is no safe haven.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

GOOG is sitting at -2.3% today with a similar chart to TSLA. Their PE is a ridiculous 22.7 per Yahoo finance. If I'm not mistaken they're nearing an all-time low PE of 21.xx and this is in a year with something like 40%y-o-y earnings growth each quarter.

Wall Street needs to load up on all these guys at some point. Another month at this SP and GOOG will have an actual PE <20. of course the current "Wall Street consensus" for GOOG 1Q earnings is lower than any of the last 4 actual quarters of earnings. Lol

I've noticed the same thing across many stocks. Completely illogical earnings estimates for Q1 that are lower than Q4's and P/E multiples that are at or below all time lows. The Fed could raise rates to 5% and it still wouldn't account for the P/E multiple contraction that's been happening

I still don't think people get just how much the market has crashed this year (and in 2021). Take away the big 5 out of the S&P/Nasdaq, and you're looking at a very deep bear market, down well past 30% now, if not more. This is just a huge money grab by Wall St. They know they only get a couple of these types of chance once every 10 years or so to buy up shares at illogical valuations.........and they're sure as hell going to make the most of it.

 

[traxila]

Have busted through support lines and erased the past year of gains with the QQQs.

Big buy the dip coming on Wednesday, but to what level? Busting up against the resistance of the low 320s before grinding down again?

Oof.

 

[EVDRVN]

Mock Elon for his tweets all you want, but today he joined the lofty list of the top 10 most followed twitter accounts.
No other COO, business magnet, tehnoking, or active leader of a country has more.
Truly a powerful position, and I am happy he puts it to such wise use ;-)

Absolutely.

Elon should watch his Twitter lead as this guy may get on Twitter as well and he made it to SNL this weekend. Millions of views and growing.

I spent the better part of a few months convincing my neighbor to buy and invest in Tesla and he was almost there. I was worn down with the video links, talks and debunking. His biggest issue is Elon's "maturity" as it is for some. I saw him walking his dog this AM and he said "I'm out". People should not be out with Tesla they should be "in". He heard about this tweet and it frustrated him as he is concerned about the volatility of this war and how this made him feel. I have concerns as well as I have relatives whose homes and lives are being destroyed. As someone that spent a month in Moscow last year in a home of a person that worked at the highest levels of government I can say this makes me feel really disappointed to say the least and more so as an advocate and investor. This is Putin machismo behavior, it's his way of thinking and his mentality and I get any intended irony or attempted humor but it's not the place. Elon supporting Ukraine with his other efforts is the correct path that reaps many benefits the world over and it is a bold and strategic move that demonstrates leadership. This tweet does not do that and adds little where it matters. We need more clean leadership it's good for everyone. Let the Greek hazing begin.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Have busted through support lines and erased the past year of gains with the QQQs.

Big buy the dip coming on Wednesday, but to what level? Busting up against the resistance of the low 320s before grinding down again?

Oof.

The Uber's of the world have run out of clock. The prospect of free money potentially ending has people spooked about putting a $60B valuation on a company making far less than zero dollars.

That being said, the biggest players in QQQ are crushing the universe. I think we're seeing a long overdue rational shakeout as banks decide who are the winners and losers. Why keep buying QQQ when you only really want 5 names?

 

[Roel1994]

Elon Musk's work ethic, passion for engineering, entrepreneurial spirit and strategic mind have made him one of the most important people in history IMO. The company he built today has single-handedly accelerated the transition to sustainable energy by at least 1 or 2 decades. He has countless good sides, traits we all literally invest in with our own money. However, over the past few years I observed (and I am by no means qualified to judge him, I'm just saying what I think, which I hope I can do here) that impulsiveness in certain areas is one of his bigger weaknesses. Of course, challenging a world leader to a duel to the death is a recent example, and unlike some I don't think that this statement on Twitter is part of a 4D chess game that Elon has all figured out. Elon has a constitutional right to tweet anything he wants, and IMO he is morally correct in the majority of his tweets, but that does not mean that he should, for his own sake and for our (investors) sake.

I am 100% confident that we will get through this market downturn and see new all time highs, but I will keep in mind that when shares trade for a price I think is fair, I must perhaps reduce my overexposure to TSLA. Elon is Tesla's greatest asset, but I do identify certain risks as well.

 

[Nocturnal]

That tweet is from 2018.

You missed the joke.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Claims solar prices are rising by comparing an estimate from last year to today. More BS...

"Pricing a system in Southern California, right now, results in a price of $2.31 per watt:"
...
"When I priced the same system for the same location last year, I got a price per watt of $1.98 per watt, which is consistent with the rest of the industry having to raise prices, too."

But then it also claims of recent increases the past few weeks. Was there?

"The prices have crept up over the last year, but several potential buyers have notified us of a big price increase that appears to have been adopted by Tesla over the last week."

Tesla is increasing solar prices as supply chain costs are rising

After achieving the best prices in the solar industry, Tesla has significantly increased solar panel installation prices as supply chain...

electrek.co

 

[ktrivedi70]

Mock Elon for his tweets all you want, but today he joined the lofty list of the top 10 most followed twitter accounts.
No other COO, business magnet, tehnoking, or active leader of a country has more.
Truly a powerful position, and I am happy he puts it to such wise use ;-)

Betcha he's #1 in terms of average IQ of followers.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Not good for EV adoption in the US.
Very bullish for Tesla though, as it is now the only practical game in town.

CERAWEEK: Citing concerns over China, Manchin sours on EV deployment

While offering measured support for the US energy transition, US Senator Joe Manchin said March 11 he was reluctant to support the proliferation of electric vehicles due to their overreliance on forei

www.spglobal.com