I'd like to present another view:
Next week is quad witch and max pain on SPY is 443. This means that the amount of puts ITM is much, much larger than the amount of calls ITM. If FOMC is dovish, put holders will trample on each other for the exit, which leads to a squeeze on the entire market. Then we'll see a retracement as call holders take their profit. The general direction afterward for the market will be up. TSLA can easily run 100 points if SPY goes up to 443.
If FOMC turns out to be hawkish, we'll see a bloodbath, followed by a dead cat bounce and the general direction afterward will be down, aka a prolonged bear market.
I've been tracking the performance of SPY during quad witch weeks. Without fails, it has always hit its max pain at some point during the week. What also important is whether the Friday marks a turning point for the market or serves as a continuation of the current trend. Since the end of the COVID crash, every quad witch Friday has been a day for traders to roll their existing positions to new positions, meaning the market dropped but then came roaring back the week after. There's only one exception and it was the January LEAP OpEx. The market dropped way past its max pain (SPY 460) and never was able to reclaim it. That was a sign of trend reversal. This coming quad witch day is super important. It scenario 1 plays out, I have no doubt SPY can overshoot 443 and signal a new bull run. If scenario 2 plays out, we go much deeper from here as the market will perceive hawkishness as a trigger for an economic recession.