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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I'm sure Elon reads TMC also.
So after reading the speculation on the Texas made Model Y stats..., he replies:

View attachment 791853

In other words:
Model Y with structured battery pack is software locked in every performance metric to avoid Osbourne effect

Interesting idea. It is odd there is 15% less "battery" capacity and no real efficiency improvement like on the SR RWD model.

Maybe sell an after purchase software upgrade at some point?

They probably want to avoid it competing with the Long Range for now as many will only want a Texas built car.
 
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Have Shanghai residents had their needs met? or is the issue getting more acute?

Residents can’t do anything, only one man’s opinion matters. So far the signs are he hasn’t realised the difference between the current and previous variants.

We could be looking at a shutdown lasting longer than one month which would wreck this quarters anticipated output.
 

Residents can’t do anything, only one man’s opinion matters. So far the signs are he hasn’t realised the difference between the current and previous variants.

We could be looking at a shutdown lasting longer than one month which would wreck this quarters anticipated output.
You are going on record that it is likely / possible for all factories in Shanghai to be shut down for the next 11 weeks?

Sure, whatever you say, pal.
watch what you say you could get a pal sent your way… lol
 
Sounds like Shanghai will remain in shutdown for a minimum of 14 more days.

Given shipping times, European tesla deliveries will be the most impacted this quarter at this stage. ie the final 4 weeks of Shanghai production of a quarter would not reach Europe for delivery by quarter end. So the first 9 weeks / 63 days is what is available for European-destined production, and we have already lost 10 days of that.

also FYI - the number of people in China now under some form of Covid lockdown now exceeds 200 million. This is getting more widespread apparently. While that is not good for the population, it may possibly hasten a change of the zero-covid policy (although I wouldn’t hold my breath).
 
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Elon: "The corporation (Twitter) needs to reduce staffing costs and increase freedom of speech!"
Board (rolling eyes): "We've looked at that repeatedly, and there's just no way to do both!"
Elon: "Here's a list of accounts to restore."

Better yet, DoJo gets a twitter feed. ID's all the bots in 30ms. Ends crypto spam with a steam hammer. Twitterverse rejoices. :D
 


Not once in my life having been in a line with a velvet rope, I don't know all of the dynamics. But I can guess.
Is this even somewhat peripheral to a young lass I once knew? She favored silk ropes.
But that was in another country, and besides, the something something something.
 
What I love about Pierre’s estimates is that his path to $10B Tesla involves Tesla continuing to execute on their current path. No assumptions about Robotaxi, no assumptions about Optimus. He just looks at the current path.

His $10T number is the Tesla middle of the road scenario. No major disasters. No massive effect from their swing for the fences stuff.

I think Tesla will achieve some of their swing for the fences stuff, Robotaxi, Optimus, both, or some half-version of one or the other. And that is where the lottery ticket really hits.
 
Thanks. This is helpful for my future forecasts.
Are there any other raw material cost differences between a Std Y and LR Y besides the battery and motors (single motor vs dual)?

Made-in-Texas Std Model Y seems to be an AWD, so no savings in materials costs there. I'd suggest the $1.45/lb avg materials cost per @jbcarioca is a good 1st approximation for imput costs reduction. We do need to a confirmed weight difference from Fremont LR AWD, but since these are going out to customers now we shouldn't have to wait too long to find out.

I suggest big savings are also coming in labor / assembly hours, and capital costs per unit due to the lower factory robot count and simplified processes (ie: installing electrical wiring).

Cheers!
 

TLDR: inventory build is happening in US - > due to lower consumer demand -> however, Fed is unnecessarily hawkish and end up raising rates into a recession.

If we see a couple months of lower Inflation readings, we should stop seeing “ I propose 10000000 point hike at next Fed meeting” by ppl like Bull(****)ard. This will basically change complete narrative that is making markets sell growth stocks to buy stocks like Costco and Walmart. Growth stocks may come back in favour.

Edit:

One more link with more data.

 
This is the first iteration of 4680s:
  • Likely not pushing performance
  • Could be software limiting in addition
  • Possible that not all battery day features fully employed
  • Many post battery day features inbound (Jeff Dahn etc. hasn't been sitting around the past 2 years)
Once this are realised they will likely feature in a M3P and MYP with improved performance.

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Expect more of this in the coming days due to China COVID situation: Not just he factory shutdown but to the supply chain. Cars can only produce as fast as the slowest part.