Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[betstarship]

You're gonna see this kind of stuff a LOT as the transition accelerates. The point has merit, but the real reason it's pushed out in the media is to keep the rural vs urban dynamic in place for fossil fuels.

Makes it easier to argue(and for people to believe) EVs + renewables are just a liberal dream that doesn't work for real world rural applications.

IMO these pieces are more of a hindrance than a help to speed transition. In Philly people are talking a lot about energy justice and "access to solar", when in reality no one really needs "access" to renewables.

Once we've transitioned, everyone is free....regardless of ownership. That's how sustainable abundance works. No need to worry about the hoarding(or denial of) energy anymore.

Going off of this post:

I got this image from Wikipedia (and its corroborated in the NYTimes too)

Source:

Paris Agreement - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Yes, There Has Been Progress on Climate. No, It’s Not Nearly Enough. (Published 2021)

Nations have started making progress on climate change. But we’re still on track for dangerous warming unless those efforts accelerate drastically.

www.nytimes.com

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/11860/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf

If the target is still 1.5 degrees Celsius, then halving annual carbon emissions by 2027 is in the works across all levels of society. A massive amount of education / awareness is going on now both environmentally and via people (in this line of thought, Twitter kinda makes sense as a cheap platform for awareness/engagement in the discussion of climate change). I would assume the inflection point for all of this is in early 2023 - 2024 where we really start accelerating things, if things are going to turn out great on a global scale. Sounds like Tesla is definitely positioned well to take advantage of this effort alongside building out the entire ecosystem...if this chart stays true.

 

[Usain]

This brings up questions for me:

Context: let's say JP Morgan Chase has purview into climate change...because they're one of the largest banks in the world and have a huge energy company dependence in their loans and the investments they make...it's been a long-running and known problem in the world for decades and a century+.

Questions:
1. ...is the path to sustainability clearly in transportation and batteries/solar?
2. Do they have a different view/perspective outside of transportation and batteries/solar that Tesla, specifically, has that they might consider the company a problem rather than a solution?

I see a lot of these startup companies looking into decarbonizing the atmosphere and trying out nuclear. There's a whole host of other ideas now that tesla has proved the market.

3. Is Tesla really the only option as the spearhead of a sustainability transportation and energy future?

Thank you for entertaining these questions, if you do. Just curious.

1. Transportation and batteries/solar is very important, but there is a lot more to de-carbonization than just those. Tesla is playing its part better than anyone else. I'm afraid that the full solution will need to involve governments, which are definitely NOT playing their parts.

2. I don't know of anyone who sees Tesla as a problem rather than part of the solution.

3. There is more than one way to skin a cat. But Tesla has done an outstanding job so far. Telsa is pushing forward to solve the problem in a cost-effective way. We just need more Teslas in more areas such as agriculture, concrete, steel, and carbon sequestration.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Financial Associated Press Bee.com Conference Call: Epidemic Disrupts New Energy Vehicle Industry Chain in the Second Half of the Year or Grows Strongly – yqqlm

"The specific situation is that after Tesla expands production in June this year, Tesla's production capacity will be further improved. The monthly output is expected to increase from 60,000 to 70,000 units to 80,000 to 90,000 units."​

If things pan out for timing on the Giga Shanghai Phase 1 expansion, then 2022H2 could see monstrous increases. Perhaps half a million cars built there just in H2?

Cheers!

 

[scaesare]

But if he is the head of Twitter and millions of people follow him because he is the head of twitter that is analogous to people being friends with Tom (myspace Tom).

Disagree, one requires no action by the new account creator, the other requires deliberate action.

What you are suggesting in effect diminishes the import of the number of folks following Elon in the future. Now some folks may indeed follow him primarily because he does own Twitter, but that's just the latest reason for folks to tune in to Elon... in addition to SpaceX, Boring Co., Tesla, Neuralink, etc...

To suggest that significant #'s of folks deliberately follow the owner of a social media platform just because they are the owner seems off. I never followed the previous Twitter head or Zuckerberg just because I have a reconnaissance FB acct... nor do I even know who' running Instagram (yes I know owned by others, but somebody has to be at the reins...)

 

[ZsoZso]

Good point. If Trip Chowdhry and Gordon Johnson touched they'd both be annihilated.

Yeah, but think of the amount of energy released!
Such event could eliminate the need for a lot of CO2 emission...
Somebody should organize such a meet, just for the sake of the Tesla mission.

 

[Ogre]

Admittedly, I'm an old fuddy-duddy who doesn't subscribe to social media and may misunderstand how Twitter works, but...

...wouldn't any "follower" then see all of Elon's content, and therefore be exposed to Tesla, SpaceX, Boring, etc. news as much as Twitter specific and general fun posts he makes?

If so, this may result in significantly expanding his influence and the raising of awareness for the parallel goals of these companies to improve/preserve the human condition; the past and future growth of Tesla as an investment, and; reasons to favor supporting these causes as a by-product of simultaneously being both the Technoking and the Twitterking.

Perhaps I'm missing some key aspect of how Twitter "following" works, and if so, I look forward to correction.

Still, I don't see any clear downside for the overall Musk enterprises resulting from this. Quite the opposite.

This is more or less correct.

Whether the source of Musk’s Twitter follower count is from Tesla, SpaceX, The Boring Company, or Twitter is irrelevant. His influence is growing.

People *pay* influencers with far fewer followers than Musk has to spread their message. Elon‘s reach is effectively his ability to broadcast things which relate to Tesla’s mission, and Tesla’s offerings.

I’m not sure we need to track his Twitter count, but it’s no more or less relevant now then it was previously.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

You'll never guess who did real well during the recent volatility. Yup! It's the guy who literally causes the volatility. There are literally no rules anymore.

Citadel's flagship hedge fund rallied 7% in April during turmoil, brings 2022 returns to nearly 13%

Citadel's flagship fund Wellington gained 7.5% last month, bringing its year-to-date performance to 12.7%, according to a person familiar with the returns.

www.cnbc.com

 

[growler23]

I would also vote against the proposal. I think Tesla was wrong to get involved in Bitcoin in the first place. But at least they eventually recognized the dubious environmental impact and pledged to sit on their holdings until that could be rectified. If Tesla dumps its Bitcoin, then more transactions will flow, which will be worse for the planet.

I'm much happier for Tesla to just keep the position it's got.

In general, I agree with this - but wouldn't mind a statement from the company (you know, their well funded PR wing (/s) ) that says "we are going to just sit on our BTC holding until there is a ton of renewable capacity and we absolutely promise we won't do anything else with it".

 

[Sofie]

Okay so let me get all this straight. We will not know the date of the next shareholder meeting today, therefore, we do not know when we will be voting regarding the split. And the split may not even come about this year?

 

[growler23]

1) Most other solutions take too long to deploy. The onlu other quick to deploy solution would be to have a conventional war that kills off 50-75% of the population. Of course that would wreck civilization as thoroughly as doing nothing, so not an option.
2) Decarbonizing the atmosphere requires energy. Probably a lot of energy.
3) Government is certainly not doing enough. I haven’t seen any examples of other companies that are doing much more than greenwashing. Tesla is working on a plan and is executing it as rapidly as possible.

From an ever-increasing number of sources (including now the IPCC) the biggest bang for the buck for removing existing CO2 from the atmosphere is simply ceasing the burning down of the tropical rainforests, the biggest of which is the Amazon. Alternately, we could just remove the cows from those areas - who by their grazing are keeping said forests from doing their natural regrowth and sequestering ungodly amounts of carbon while also cooling the planet directly and performing other ecosystem services...
Everything else is a higher-carbon, higher-cost, later-start-time solution.
I only post this because I think a few folks here may not know that another massive industrial effort to undo our last one isn't the only option; I realize it is veering OT for this group and will not post further on it here. Apologies if overstepping the topic limits.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

More GM/Ford/UAW/Fossil subsidies lined up! Unbelievable.

Biden kicks off $3 billion plan to boost battery production for electric vehicles

The White House plan to accelerate battery production is part of a broader effort to shift the country away from gas-powered cars to electric vehicles.

www.cnbc.com

To recap.....the WH wants to encourage EV production, so they're going to dump subsidies on the companies least interested in transitioning.

The very entities that find the anti-EV lobbying and PR get funds, while the only manufacturer actually making EVs IN AMERICA.....doesn't even qualify for EV tax credits anymore.

Maybe these Trumpers are right, the best avenue might be to just burn it all down. We certainly aren't getting much for our $6T every year.

 

[Knightshade]

Okay so let me get all this straight. We will not know the date of the next shareholder meeting today, therefore, we do not know when we will be voting regarding the split. And the split may not even come about this year?

You don't get to vote on a split- you get to vote on increasing the # of authorized shares. A vote that'll be announced in the proxy statement and concluded at the annual shareholder meeting. THAT date remains unknown because they delayed filing their proxy statement today.

It appears that May 10th would be the next relevant date, with the 120 day window thing if they don't file by then it means the shareholder meeting couldn't be earlier than about Sept 8th (since that'd be less than 30 days before the 2021 meeting).

We also know the meeting can't be later than roughly Nov 7th, because Delaware law requires a meeting every 13 months, and that'd be roughly 13 months since the last one.






Once there's a larger # of authorized shares (ie that vote passes) then it's possible to split the stock, but when, and at what ratio, is entirely a decision by the board.

They COULD announce -today- their detailed intent, pending the authorized share vote passing. Or they could wait until any, potentially infinite, time after the authorized share vote to announce any details of the split.


(pedantry- technically it's possible for the board to do a split without more shares, but it'd require some weird ratio like 1.9:1 max or so- assuming they won't do that all the rest of the above applies).

 

[bkp_duke]

You literally can't buy advertising this good:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1521117138978848768

 

[Blue horseshoe]

More GM/Ford/UAW/Fossil subsidies lined up! Unbelievable.

Biden kicks off $3 billion plan to boost battery production for electric vehicles

The White House plan to accelerate battery production is part of a broader effort to shift the country away from gas-powered cars to electric vehicles.

www.cnbc.com

To recap.....the WH wants to encourage EV production, so they're going to dump subsidies on the companies least interested in transitioning.

The very entities that find the anti-EV lobbying and PR get funds, while the only manufacturer actually making EVs IN AMERICA.....doesn't even qualify for EV tax credits anymore.

Maybe these Trumpers are right, the best avenue might be to just burn it all down. We certainly aren't getting much for our $6T every year.

The article you linked states $3 billion will go towards grants for battery production and battery recycling. Nowhere is it mentioned that Tesla is excluded.. your recap is misleading.

 

[Ogre]

More GM/Ford/UAW/Fossil subsidies lined up! Unbelievable.

Biden kicks off $3 billion plan to boost battery production for electric vehicles

The White House plan to accelerate battery production is part of a broader effort to shift the country away from gas-powered cars to electric vehicles.

www.cnbc.com

To recap.....the WH wants to encourage EV production, so they're going to dump subsidies on the companies least interested in transitioning.

The very entities that find the anti-EV lobbying and PR get funds, while the only manufacturer actually making EVs IN AMERICA.....doesn't even qualify for EV tax credits anymore.

Maybe these Trumpers are right, the best avenue might be to just burn it all down. We certainly aren't getting much for our $6T every year.

Did you link the wrong article?

Your "Recap" is only vaguely related to the linked article and doesn't seem to have anything related to UAW, GM, or ... ?? much of what you said.

 

[Usain]

More GM/Ford/UAW/Fossil subsidies lined up! Unbelievable.

Biden kicks off $3 billion plan to boost battery production for electric vehicles

The White House plan to accelerate battery production is part of a broader effort to shift the country away from gas-powered cars to electric vehicles.

www.cnbc.com

To recap.....the WH wants to encourage EV production, so they're going to dump subsidies on the companies least interested in transitioning.

The very entities that find the anti-EV lobbying and PR get funds, while the only manufacturer actually making EVs IN AMERICA.....doesn't even qualify for EV tax credits anymore.

Maybe these Trumpers are right, the best avenue might be to just burn it all down. We certainly aren't getting much for our $6T every year.

I don't see anything in the article that suggests Tesla won't get its share of those subsidies. I understand your skepticism, but Tesla should be in a great position to take advantage of this.

The funding will support grants aimed at building, retooling or expanding manufacturing of batteries and battery components, as well as establishing battery recycling facilities, according to the Department of Energy. The grants will be funded through President Joe Biden’s $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure law, which includes more than $7 billion to bolster the country’s battery supply chain.

 

[Gigapress]

Tesla reports the "capacity" of Fremont at 450.000/year in their reports for endless quarters now. If you take this "benchmark" than they can hit above that rate.
450k was the "initial planned" capacity or so .. not an upper "limit" in the traditional "capacity"-sense where you measure 1 good day & extrapolate to 365/24/7-production without downtime.

Fremont capacity is listed as 500k Model 3/Y and 100k S/X at least as of Q1’s report.

 

[PaintedPost]

Fremont capacity is listed as 500k Model 3/Y and 100k S/X at least as of Q1’s report.

Yet management has recently been positing they can increase Fremont production rate. Elon said +50%. Not sure about that but I would assume at some point we will be raising our expectations of Fremont capacity, supply chain aside.

 

[ggies07]

WTF happened to Elon? Seriously. He sounds like he's move pretty far right.

Things were bad under Trump, if someone can't see that, I've lost respect for them. The GOP has lost their damn mind concerning how they want to govern this nation.

I'm really having a hard time liking Elon anymore and wanting to say positive things to others....

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Okay so let me get all this straight. We will not know the date of the next shareholder meeting today, therefore, we do not know when we will be voting regarding the split. And the split may not even come about this year?

I think Bloomberg actually published a helpful piece on this a few hours ago, though I don't see it now for some reason.

Tesla made a filing error at some point recently and misquoted the amount of shares Elon has pledged to various things. Sounds like they left the(much higher) Dec 2020 figure in one of their recent regulatory filings rather than the Dec 2021.

So they likely need to do a bit of forensics to get the number right and then file. I love that they care so little about regulatory filings. Should be resolved today or tomorrow and I bet we'll know about they shareholder meeting early next week at the latest.