Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

This is more like it!

 

[Cosmacelf]

I've never really liked the "near death" arguments Elon has made (particularly over the last 5 years). Elon has a ton of rich mates and there is a legion of wealthy fans. Near Death = some dilution from an equity capital raise.

I think the thing we are missing and missed at the time what just how screwed up the Model 3 rollout was. In the recent interview that came out of the TED talk, the interviewer alluded to over automation as the problem, which we all knew about, but Elon corrected him. Elon said that every single facet of the factory was messed up. The paint shop, GA, body, probably logistics both incoming and outgoing too. Basically, the ramp from 50,000 vehicles a year to 300,000 was a big jump and Tesla was flailing.

So, does that mean near death? If you've hired for 300,000 production and you can only get out 50,000 units for an extended period of time, then yeah, that'll drain cash out of a company so fast it'll make your head spin. When you raise money, you need to disclose current financials and I'm sure they looked absolutely awful at that point. As I recall, the stock price, pre-split, was around $180/share briefly around that time. So, that's $36 in current stock price (5-1 split, right?).

I probably have some of the production numbers wrong, but you get the idea on the magnitude.

 

[DarkandStormy]

WTF happened to Elon? Seriously. He sounds like he's move pretty far right.

Things were bad under Trump, if someone can't see that, I've lost respect for them. The GOP has lost their damn mind concerning how they want to govern this nation.

I'm really having a hard time liking Elon anymore and wanting to say positive things to others....

View attachment 799729

He's having a Twitter tantrum on a Monday afternoon (or morning, depending on his time zone). Normal for a CEO of four companies, right?

https://twitter.com/x/status/828287354741936130

Also, Mehdi Hasan is a singular host on MSNBC, discussing a specific "extreme wing" of the Republican Party. Didn't Elon *JUST SAY* you're doing something right if you're pissing off the extremes of both sides? One guy points it out and he starts losing his *sugar* on Twitter saying it's NBC (and not a singular MSNBC host) pointing out the extremism within the Republican Party and not "Republicans are Nazis."

He also followed it up with a tweet about the Hunter Biden laptop conspiracy, proving Hasan's point. What a genius.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

All this volatility has one goal.....banks accumulating shares in the top 5 weighted stocks in the S&P500.

It's all about.....TAAAAM!

Tesla
Apple
Alphabet
Alphabet
Amazon
Microsoft

 

[TheTalkingMule]

David Faber now saying this Reuters piece is nonsense.

What I think is happening is Tesla had a bad number in their year end report showing inaccurate % of Elon's share are already committed elsewhere. While they scramble to update that figure, shorts try to jump on the confusion and say Elon's potentially in danger of margin call.

Elon's now going around looking to limit his exposure bringing in other whales, as was planned, and shorts are trying to tie the two narratives together.

Probably got refuted and all sorted out, leading to this marketwide rebound. I think the whole world may be orbiting Elon at this point.

 

[MikeC]

David Faber now saying this Reuters piece is nonsense.

What I think is happening is Tesla had a bad number in their year end report showing inaccurate % of Elon's share are already committed elsewhere. While they scramble to update that figure, shorts try to jump on the confusion and say Elon's potentially in danger of margin call.

Elon's now going around looking to limit his exposure bringing in other whales, as was planned, and shorts are trying to tie the two narratives together.

Probably got refuted and all sorted out, leading to this marketwide rebound. I think the whole world may be orbiting Elon at this point.

My guess is he lined up the money quickly at sub-optimal terms to confirm he was willing and able to pay, but now that the sale has been agreed to he is going back and obtaining more favorable funding like he always intended.

Of course, some journalists jumped on the initial funding terms to spread FUD, but now, surprise, they won’t be updating their articles after the circumstances change.

 

[Iain]

Does Elon give two hoots about what the market thinks regarding his Twitter financing? I'm undecided ,on one hand he says he invested in Doge because a number of his employees own it, yet he often send Tweets that are definitely negative for Tesla stock. He's a bit of a mystery lately.

 

[AudubonB]

Due to the nature of BTC if TSLA just holds it, especially if they hold it offline (I'm sure they're doing for security reasons), there is no energy consumed. The energy is consumed when a transaction of BTC occurs. I would argue that selling it now is more detrimental in energy consumption than waiting until more of the grid is powered by renewable resources. There is no consumption by simply holding the BTC (because BTC is proof of work, not proof of Stake). It's also a hedge against some inflation and other measures so holding it isn't much different than holding Gold. I would vote our measly shares against an action to force selling it as selling it doesn't solve anything and is actually worse than holding.

Hurrah!
I am going to use your logic to swathe Jenny, Gus, even me….and - why not? - all our lodge’s beds with those beautiful, wonderfully warm and cuddly pure white baby seal skins because you know what? Those seals are ALREADY DEAD!

And more closely related, Tesla’s use - either for payments OR for balance sheet purposes - by itself ===>helps legitimize <=== cryptocurrencies, thus absolutely, unassailably increasing demand for same.

 

[bkp_duke]

Can’t find the actual Reuters link but:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1521195640486866944

Elon Musk Is Reportedly In Talks With Investment Firms About New Twitter Financing That Would Tie Up Less Of His Wealth In $44B Acquisition - Reuters

This is probably the link you were looking for:

Exclusive: Musk seeks to put in less money in new Twitter deal financing -sources

Elon Musk is in talks with large investment firms and high net-worth individuals about taking on more financing for his $44 billion acquisition of Twitter Inc and tying up less of his wealth in the deal, people familiar with the matter said.

www.reuters.com

 

[HellsKitchen]

I think the whole world may be orbiting Elon at this point.

wow.

 

[Zero CO2]

All this volatility has one goal.....banks accumulating shares in the top 5 weighted stocks in the S&P500.

It's all about.....TAAAAM!

Tesla
Apple
Alphabet
Alphabet
Amazon
Microsoft

double helping of Alphabet GOOG and GOOGL?

 

[RandomJohnny]

Nothing can stop what is coming. Nothing.

 

[ZeApelido]

Nothing can stop what is coming. Nothing.

A meteor?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

double helping of Alphabet GOOG and GOOGL?

Exactly.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Nothing can stop what is coming. Nothing.

Nooooo! Don’t tempt the Gods!

 

[Drumheller]

Hurrah!
I am going to use your logic to swathe Jenny, Gus, even me….and - why not? - all our lodge’s beds with those beautiful, wonderfully warm and cuddly pure white baby seal skins because you know what? Those seals are ALREADY DEAD!

And more closely related, Tesla’s use - either for payments OR for balance sheet purposes - by itself ===>helps legitimize <=== cryptocurrencies, thus absolutely, unassailably increasing demand for same.

Your baby seal analogy does not work. Disposing of the baby seal skins will use energy but it will not kill more seals. Selling bitcoin triggers transactional processes that consume as much, or more energy, as purchasing those bitcoins. The most environmentally safe thing Tesla can do is hold those Bitcoin without generating any new transactions until the transaction process is greatly improved or running on renewal energy.

 

[RandomJohnny]

WTF happened to Elon? Seriously. He sounds like he's move pretty far right.

Things were bad under Trump, if someone can't see that, I've lost respect for them. The GOP has lost their damn mind concerning how they want to govern this nation.

I'm really having a hard time liking Elon anymore and wanting to say positive things to others....

Delusions of Grandeur.

4-5 percent will be lost forever.

Information Warfare.

Elon is a Patriot.

 

[betstarship]

I'm...just gonna go back to reading the Q1/2022 Earnings report...

 

[CorneliusXX]

I think the thing we are missing and missed at the time what just how screwed up the Model 3 rollout was. In the recent interview that came out of the TED talk, the interviewer alluded to over automation as the problem, which we all knew about, but Elon corrected him. Elon said that every single facet of the factory was messed up. The paint shop, GA, body, probably logistics both incoming and outgoing too. Basically, the ramp from 50,000 vehicles a year to 300,000 was a big jump and Tesla was flailing.

So, does that mean near death? If you've hired for 300,000 production and you can only get out 50,000 units for an extended period of time, then yeah, that'll drain cash out of a company so fast it'll make your head spin. When you raise money, you need to disclose current financials and I'm sure they looked absolutely awful at that point. As I recall, the stock price, pre-split, was around $180/share briefly around that time. So, that's $36 in current stock price (5-1 split, right?).

I probably have some of the production numbers wrong, but you get the idea on the magnitude.

Potentially. But from a quick look back at the financials the worst position in terms of cash burn was around the end of 2017/early 2018. Even at their worst they were burning about 10% of market cap p.a. - so unless they thought they wouldn't be able to fix the production problems nor could they rein in any capex/opex, they still could have raised funds for about 10% dilution per year to keep them going. Not a pretty outcome to be sure (and there would eventually be limits on investor willingness to bankroll losses), but still nowhere near "weeks from death" IMO.

 

[Zero CO2]

GM CEO: Chip shortage expected to ‘last until 2023’

In a wide-ranging conversation with Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief Andy Serwer from the Milken Global Conference, GM CEO Mary Barra emphasized the impact of the global chip shortage on supply, but also touched on electric trucks, and the outlook for EV investment.

finance.yahoo.com

GM Lackluster EV production excuses secured through 2023