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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Krugerrand
Meow
Not sure if my site is wrong or what but I show 587k volume in the first 90 minutes
Maybe I am preaching to the choir on this forum but I would think buying Tesla now is an opportunity to get TSLA shares at a low price. Lets hope the latest stumbles do not out of hand. Really very few companies worldwide are as exciting and have as much potential upside as TSLA. With all the projects and industries TESLA is in I firmly believe there is alot of growth potential for the company.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Are you invested in TSLA or ELON?
For the record, not only has Tesla as a company not stumbled, they have performed magnificently. You seemed to have invested in Elon stock. They are not one in the same.
No concerns about Q2? Or is the stock already pushed down so much that a weak Q2 will not matter vs the macro?
I would invest in ELON if it were a possibility. Maybe an ETF. Then I could get a piece of SpaceX and The Boring Company without having to jump through weird hoops.
They I could diversify a bit more. 50% TSLA, 50% ELON.
I can't believe how much of this thread lately goes to random morons off of twitter.
Ugh. I would prefer nothing off that toxic waste dump, but if you post them can they at least be people with 'serious' followings, or a post that is trying to be informative.
Just random idiots spewing nonsensical opinions and we post it like a headline from a news source. Are we looking to join the outrage crew over how stupid the tweets are?
Ugh. I would prefer nothing off that toxic waste dump, but if you post them can they at least be people with 'serious' followings, or a post that is trying to be informative.
Just random idiots spewing nonsensical opinions and we post it like a headline from a news source. Are we looking to join the outrage crew over how stupid the tweets are?
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I'm sure the shorts will make everything they can of a Q2 "miss".
I'm not betting on it, but I would nearly kill to see Tesla pull out a miracle and match or beat Q1 production.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I think Q2 is not only priced in, but OVERLY priced in. I think Tesla is going to get a lot closer to the Q1 numbers than the market thinks. Meaning, I think we'll hit 83,000 right on the head for Q2.
It is already being discounted... we have even the bull analysts cutting over Q2 and concerns around it. As long as Telsa is over $2 EPS, I think the market will react positively.
So, what is the beta of TSLA ?
Is it somewhere between 0.25 and 0.4 or am I misreading the charts ?
just asking for a friend...
Is it somewhere between 0.25 and 0.4 or am I misreading the charts ?
just asking for a friend...
I don't see how Q2 can miss.
Everyone knows Shanghai production was pummeled. The only way those numbers are really going to affect TSLA is if we see a flat or increased production. Then we get a big upside "Surprise".
What people are going to be focused on for Q2 is the forward projections. If Tesla predicts they will still hit 50% production increase for 2022, we'll be in like Flynn. And that is very likely to be the case.
Lots of potential catalysts right now.
Did you steal my FUD pic from Cabo as your Avatar? Everyone has to get their own.
Edit- I looked, mine has three flavors of FUD so carry on
670 resistance breaking would allow a nice little move up.
Last week there was some twitter chatter that SF Pier 80 was full of cars .. and now this:
3rd ship it seems from SF, vs 2 last quarter.
(ref https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJcrkZ-T3NmLkLnTo6xqbdtaOI/htmlview)
Total 17 last Q, so far 6 this quarter.
Ship GLOVIS SUNLIGHT (Vehicles Carrier) Registered in Marshall Is - Vessel details, Current position and Voyage information - IMO 9798416, MMSI 538007440, Call Sign V7JP5
Vessel GLOVIS SUNLIGHT is a Vehicles Carrier, Registered in Marshall Is. Discover the vessel's particulars, including capacity, machinery, photos and ownership. Get the details of the current Voyage of GLOVIS SUNLIGHT including Position, Port Calls, Destination, ETA and Distance travelled - IMO...
www.marinetraffic.com
3rd ship it seems from SF, vs 2 last quarter.
(ref https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJcrkZ-T3NmLkLnTo6xqbdtaOI/htmlview)
Total 17 last Q, so far 6 this quarter.
Say Tesla comes in at $ 2 EPS GAAP.......a decline of roughly 25% from Q1. Would still be up 100% yoy and would still require every single analyst to upgrade their 2022 EPS GAAP estimates.
Btw, Tesla has an uncanny ability to compensate for production woes with higher than expected earnings/margins through execution and efficiency. See from Q1 to Q2 a year ago. Revenue grew 10% QoQ, yet net income/operating margin went up over 250% QoQ.
I expect Q2 ASP to have a very material jump from Berlin/Austin input, more S/X, and Fremont production targeting almost exclusively high trims of 3/Y.
Even if deliveries come in at 275k, a decrease of roughly 11%, I expect revenue to only be down only 5-8%, and I think earnings could only be down 3-5% or possibly flat if Tesla truly prioritized only high end trims with FSD out of Fremont/Austin/Berlin.
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There is an enormous amount of manipulation going on with TSLA since the Twitter announcement. Powerful interests seem to believe if they crush TSLA SP enough, they can make Elon poor enough to prevent him from buying Twitter.
I'm against the Bird personally so all I can do is ride this storm out. If it turns out the Bird dies and then the stonk goes up after it's a win-win as far as I'm concerned!
I'm against the Bird personally so all I can do is ride this storm out. If it turns out the Bird dies and then the stonk goes up after it's a win-win as far as I'm concerned!
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
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