This is a scare/fight to stop a rally. Bound to happen as some options overhead lifted off. I imagine this week will be choppy and end up relatively flat (1.5% +/-) as it tries to figure out the next direction. The second stage of a rally or fall back typically takes a week or so to figure out (probably also means any rally will fizzle around 12.7 for now).
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
ZachF
Active Member
May CPI numbers due on Jun 10th ... it will likely redefine the debate of where we are ... cheers!!
Well, recessions are disinflationary… lemons, lemonade, etc.
If this week is flat, I have a hard time seeing a rally next week in front of May CPI data.
Depends on market expectations... we've see a bit of a tide change on economic data, and if the market is expecting May CPI to show that inflation has peaked... that will be the source of the rally.
There are some job and PMI finalization, but the biggest number of the week was the home price index this morning. Relatively light week barring a massive surprise in weekly job numbers.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I would say more of a trailing indicator. A good representation of the crowd's pulse.
Cramer is the ultimate contra-indicator!!
At this point, I think the probability of recession is 75%+
Tesla will probably recover a lot sooner, but it’ll probably take the market as a whole until like 2025 to surpass its 2021 peak.
Agree on all points. Maybe we don't technically get a recession by definition, but we've already priced in an actual recession so it's moot.
The 2021 peak was broad and insane. We got a front row seat as Tesla pulled up a dozen other companies that are unlikely ever to be worth more than $10B, let alone $100B. I'm hoping this shake out leaves the permanent-money-losing Ubers of the world behind. In that world the wider market struggles to regain the overall peak. Fine with me!
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Jumped out of the shower excited to sell my Monday MMD BPS(sold put spreads) only to see premiums not move up at all as share price went from $748 to $735. I post in this thread because it supports my theory retail options sales are what's moving this market. Not just Tesla, but defining the bottom for all of QQQ on certain days.
The folks in the other thread were circling like sharks waiting for the bottom of the MMD, and that's when MM's let it unwind. Not only that, the premiums didn't even spike. No point in letting some retail bums rake in all that premium selling safe puts.
Maybe that's a function of them selling a ton of puts as the SP bottomed over 15-20 minutes, but it's strange to see put premiums barely move at all as market cap changes by $10B.
The folks in the other thread were circling like sharks waiting for the bottom of the MMD, and that's when MM's let it unwind. Not only that, the premiums didn't even spike. No point in letting some retail bums rake in all that premium selling safe puts.
Maybe that's a function of them selling a ton of puts as the SP bottomed over 15-20 minutes, but it's strange to see put premiums barely move at all as market cap changes by $10B.
For the SP500, we haven't had a 3 year bear market since the Great Depression (might have been the onset of WW2... yup turns out it was). 01 hit 31 months... taking until 25 for recovery is very unlikely. We are much more likely to see ATHs this year than it taking until 25...
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thesmokingman
Active Member
I suppose one way to look at it is that it was only a matter of time. Part of the thrill of pumping gas is getting your CC numbers stolen. The one flaw in the whole thing is a CC scanner... and apparently it's just as susceptible as gas for the public chargers.
The Accountant
Active Member
I guess the key question is: if a Recession is probable . . . .when does it arrive?
Look at the US job openings data:
We had 11.5m job openings in March 2022. Delta airlines cancelled 200 flights this holiday weekend due to staff shortages.
IMO, we will need to see job openings drop considerably to get a meaningful drop in consumer spending to help fuel a recession.
The divergent and contradictory economic data that I see really has me perplexed.
btw: the shaded areas of the chart above indicate US recessions.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I agree Accountant, it seems a bit contradictory. Current economic environment just doesn't seem recessionary. I think this is all a bit unique because we're emerging from an unusual pandemic situation and went into a fuel crisis with the war in Ukraine, and the indicators are false flag indications of a recession.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
This is that awkward time period between the Industrial Revolution and Star Trek where we all mill around waiting to get measured for our color-coded uniforms.
It's hard to wrap our brains around sustainable abundance. Maybe it takes 10 years to acclimate, maybe 60.
Due to the massive Covid/Ukraine supply shock. It's not talked about so often because people get mad when policy makers say they want to increase unemployment but we are still at 3.6% unemployment, which is .4%-1.4% below the "natural" rate the FED likes to see. Tight labor markets are inflationary and reduce productivity. If we see unemployment increase a little that's another great sign that the FED will relax.
Krugerrand
Meow
You don’t think governments might push those dates back or reduce/lighten parameters if say suddenly Tesla wasn’t around to bleed their ICE market and profits? Never mind that certain companies cheated the rules for DECADES and others have been lobbying very recently for more time and less stringent goals.
That’s why I’m adamant that we’re no where near the tipping point. Everything can still be easily undone. Neither the genie nor the worms have been let out, poking their heads out a bit.
Additionally, I fear (read expect) that a replacement is already being thought up - tobacco industry fought like heck and then came up with vaping and child attracting flavors, auto industry came up with ‘clean diesel’ and hybrids, and basically have sucked and failed at compelling BEVs in a lot of ways, fossil fuel industry said let’s extract natural gas because that won’t cause any issues, utilities said let’s make up a bunch of bs rules so customers pay through the nose for energy, can’t easily get off the grid, and certainly can’t make their own energy unless we say so and tell them how much and when; behold our regulations!!!
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