Comparing $10/MWh solar to the equivalent gasoline price is a good way to get a sense of how revolutionary that is for transportation once that price starts to be achievable in less sunny locations than the Middle East and North Africe.
Saudi Arabia utility-scale solar price:
$10.4/MWh (and dropping)
Approximate panel-to wheels efficiency for local solar grids:
80%
Assume localized power production and thus relatively cheap transmission costs from solar farm to load (in this case, the charging cable). Normally electricity transmission costs $30/MWh, but since it’s a new design using solar, let’s estimate half the cost off for $15/MWh. Note that even here, the transmission costs are more than the generation costs, which suggests that rooftop or backyard solar would be even cheaper than this model.
Cost per MWh of generation and transmission:
$10.4 + $15 = $25.4/MWh
Cost per MWh of useful propulsion work done by EV:
$25.4/MWh / 80% = $32/MWh
A gallon of gasoline is worth 33.7 kWh of energy and it's used at around 30% efficiency in ICEV propulsion. So $32/MWh solar cost is equivalent to gasoline priced at:
$32 = Cost of gas for 1 MWh of work
= Gallons required * Price per gallon
= 1 MWh * 1000 kWh/MWh * 1 gallon/33.7 kWh / 30% efficiency * Price per gallon
$32 = 99 gallons * Price per gallon
$32/99 gallons = Price per gallon
$0.32 = Price per gallon
Wow!
If this math is run again with aspirational 5x solar power cost improvement between now and 2035 to get all-in energy cost of $5/MWh, the equivalent price per gallon of gasoline would be
$0.063/gallon!
This is significantly cheaper than gas anywhere in the world, not even Libya at $0.12/gallon, Venezuela $0.11/gallon, nor Iran at $0.19/gallon. (I learned that Saudi Arabia actually in in 20th place for gasoline price.)
To predict this just requires willingness to extrapolate the solar cost curve trends of 10-15% per year saved for just 12 more years or so. The cost curve has been steady for about 68 years since 1954 and there is no clear reason to expect the trend not to continue for the foreseeable future. EVs will be cheaper up front and cheaper to operate literally everywhere on the planet, even countries with more oil & gas than they know what to do with.
There are real solar contracts being signed right now in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, for $10.4-19/MWh. (
link link). When materials and logistics shortages calm down, prices will continue dropping.