I find it meaningful that a van is on Elon's mind at this point of Cybertruck pre-production. I think it indicates the development of the production processes required to make a vehicle as unique as the Cybertruck and its exoskeleton is going well. I've mentioned this observation here before, but it didn't get the attention it deserved.
If you think Elon is envisioning a van stamped out of heavy, soft and rust-prone mild steel, like all other vans on the road, you haven't been paying attention to what's going on with the Cybertruck (CT) prototypes we have seen multiple examples of as it goes through its development process. The first two prototypes we saw had cold-rolled stainless-steel panels that were clearly bent on a traditional metal bending brake. I believe it was Elon who even commented on the need to score the metal along each bend before it was bent.
However, in the last several months every new prototype we have seen has had a distinct waviness to the body panels that can be clearly seen when the reflection in the panel is viewed at an oblique angle. Maybe someone who knows more about cold-rolled stainless steel than I do can comment but I know enough about the properties of cold-rolled stainless steel to know that it is not naturally wavy and bending it upon straight lines is not going to make it take on a wavy appearance, even if done imperfectly. And the initial prototypes, while they did have misaligned body panels, there was not a hint of waviness visible in their reflective surfaces. This is a super important clue that the production process has changed in a fundamental manner, a production process that I have not seen a single other person contemplate and one that has far-reaching implications for the economics of Cybertruck production and every Tesla utility vehicle hereafter. Maybe even every new model that Tesla releases from here on out.
I think the waviness of recent CT protypes tells us something big has changed in the way these prototypes have been manufactured. I suspect Tesla is buying cheaper rolls of soft, hot-rolled stainless steel and cold working them in-house into hardened CT panels. This would mean they are no longer using a metal brake but bending panels from soft metal on a long line of custom hydraulic rollers as they are also hardening the panels under high roller pressure. This would require development of many hardened rollers of varying angles, so the soft metal panels are progressively bent and hardened they travel down a long line of rollers. Most of the bending would happen quickly at the beginning of the line and most of the hardening and final bending to tight tolerances would happen after that. Ultra-hard, high precision panels would be ejected at high speed at the end of the line, ready for welding into the form of Cybertruck. Unlike an industrial metal brake this would be a continuous process.
Advantages:
-Panel details and cutouts could be performed on soft metal making it much cheaper and quicker to cut. If the metal came from the factory in full-hard form, every shaping and cutting operation is more difficult and requires more expensive, generally slower tools, non-laser/plasma tools wear quickly.
-The grain structure of the hardened metal can be controlled somewhat to optimize strength in the desired areas, in the desired directions. This would be done by adjusting the progression of the rollers to suit desired directional strength.
-The panel thickness can be controlled locally. Welding flanges can be left thicker and the panels can be rolled thinner as required to reduce weight and increase efficiency of material utilization, thereby reducing cost.
-Cost of material is reduced by buying the stainless steel closer to raw form, in its soft state and cost of manufacture is reduced by greatly simplifying production (once such a line is developed and running).
Disadvantages:
-Huge development costs and risk of delays. What I'm suggesting is not easy and has never been done before, AFAIK. It's essentially bringing the cold-rolling hardening process of a metal foundry in-house and integrating it with a roller bending/forming operation. While the potential benefits are mind-blowing, the sheer amount of trial and error needed to get this right shouldn't be under-estimated and I'm not sure it could even be done in a two-year period. So that would seem to argue against this analysis.
-Appearance. If Tesla cannot tune the waviness out of the reflection, it is not as appealing to the eye.
The only other thing I think could cause the waviness is if Tesla adopted a different welding technique that is warping the panels. But I'm not sure why the early prototypes did not have this appearance. Elon's recent comment about a people/cargo van makes me think something about the Cybertruck production/economic projections have been going exceptionally well and he wants to make more vehicles using CT technology!
I'm just dying to learn more about the unique challenges CT presents and the kinds of solutions being applied. It's driving me nuts actually. I don't envy anyone doing financial projections on Tesla because there is still so much unknown. We live in exciting times!
