Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Webeevdrivers]

Since just opinions are being given.
In my socio-economic level taking a taxi was considered a luxury. You don't have to be around the public, which is one of the three reasons mass transit does not work.
The two others are there is no infrastructure for a true physical "Mass" transit system, and the inconvenient time schedules. A person has to first make it to a pick up point, WAIT(!), and then when at the end of mass transit line they have another leg of the trip to complete.
So my mind screamed, "NO." If my fat butt can walk out the door, sit down in some quiet place, and then end up directly outside where I want then you just made my day like no one else could...especially Not public transport nor me driving my own car... or a regular taxi with a person I do not ever care to talk with or trust driving the car.
I firmly see robo-taxis being embraced by all us ants. It will be the first time since prom night we get to be treated so good by the mass transportation industry... actually by anyone that is willing to take us anywhere.
AND at a fraction of a taxi or personal automobile.

But realistically speaking, is anybody actually expecting a tesla with FSD to achieve even level 3 in the next 5 years? I mean, has anyone saying this actually rode in a car with FSD? We have full FSD beta. It’s pretty cool and seems to make incremental improvements every version. But on a per trip basis I would say it trys to kill us about 70 percent of the trips we take downtown. No big deal because it’s a level 2 system and we just take over. But I can’t imagine anyone who has driven it thinking we are anywhere close to autonomis driving.

We have an intersection close to us. The car gets in the wrong lane 100 percent of the time and would illegally travel straight thru the intersection 100 percent of the time and guarantee cause an accident. We have reported probably 50 to 70 times. We know it’s important to do that. But still that’s just one of many examples. Again, not a big deal, it’s a level 2 system. We knew that when we bought it. Way fun.

Just my personal opinion but for investment discussion on when FSD even achieves level three….that is years away. Robotaxi?…a decade or more. We are no where close.

I know the flames are comin…got my extinguisher handy.

 

[Ogre]

You really are a pessimist.

At a this rate, in 2 years couldn't we easily be in the 4th wave?

I just feel like we shouldn’t be lumping the Mach-E, the id.4, and the EV6 in with the eGolf, the Bolt, i3, and the Leaf. They are much better vehicles.

They’ve progressed from making compliance cars right up into nearly useful vehicles. Maybe in 3 years Tesla will have to bring down some of their prices in order to compete.

 

[Usain]

I disagree with you because stationary storage is one area that has very capable competitors in many evolving technologies. No energy storage technology need me dominate. Molten salt? Pumped liquids? Pressure vessels? and batteries as we know them too. Megapacks have gigantic demand now, but some of those others will endure also. Numerous alternatives in batteries themselves, like BYD, are now even cheaper than are Megapacks and built for easy scalability too.

For sure we should expect TE to be highly profitable. The sources of that profitability may well be Virtual Power Plants (VPP) now being applied in multiple locations around the world, even Tesla in Texas. That also brings us to Grid Services which are proving to be highly valuable and easily scalable.

That all suggests to me that we should consider Tesla Energy as the source of scalable profitability for a long time to come rather than a specific product. Megapacks probably will not end out being the long term winner. After all, that Lathrop factory is quite flexible and can be adopted to a wide variety of product needs.

I appreciate the counterpoint. I used to hold the same view as you, thinking that Megapacks will only make sense in certain use cases and other storage technologies will serve other use cases.

But I've been following all these other storage technologies for quite some time. And none of them seem to be going anywhere.

I think the root of the problem is that Lithium batteries have been too successful. And when one solution proves itself, that solution gets all the R&D money to improve and extend its usefulness. So Lithium batteries will continue to get better and cheaper. Sodium batteries probably have a good shot too because it is similar enough and we will need a Lithium alternative. But any non-cell storage technology is doomed. (The exception is pumped hydro in locations where that makes sense).

As for straight up competition in the Megapack space, Tesla has a huge competitive advantage. Only the Chinese battery makers have a chance to match Tesla's cost at the pack level. And utility customers will want a name they can trust. They will want a company with serious battery management system credibility. That's Tesla.

So my Tesla Energy thesis is:
1. Lithium and Sodium battery cells are the future of grid storage. I honestly wish it were not true, but it is.
2. While Tesla will have competition from the Chinese, Tesla will have the upper hand everywhere except Asia.
3. Powerwall and VPP will be a fine business, but Megapack will be much larger.
4. Autobidder could also bring in a lot of revenue, but I don't yet grasp its potential.

The potential for Tesla Energy is much greater than the auto business. It's just a matter of waiting for $/mWh to keep dropping.

 

[Mengy]

View attachment 829789

The AP Interview: GM's Barra talks electric vehicles, future

General Motors CEO Mary Barra outlined an ambitious plan for her company to sell more electric vehicles in the U.S. than Tesla by the middle of this decade.

apnews.com

This quote from Barra makes me laugh:

"Barra is hoping to keep prices relatively low, banking on chemistry breakthroughs to cut battery costs, offsetting huge price increases for Lithium and other key elements that make batteries work."

Hope is not a strategy. What is GM themselves doing to keep prices low? How are they planning to ramp production so incredibly fast as to pass Tesla's own 50%+ production increases YoY? If I was a GM investor I'd be very, very worried right now, because what Barra says is not jiving with what they are doing.

 

[Discoducky]

So hysterical. By the middle means by 2025. So GM has a little less then 2.5 years to catch up.

I've read three articles about her speech and can't find the reiterated quote. Can someone find it please? Or maybe the interview video is posted somewhere.

I'm looking for her context and overall positioning.

It honestly baffles me how she thinks this and I'd expect she absolutely knows it is a logistical, supply chain, engineering and manufacturing impossibility for GM.

 

[Gigapress]

I'm not sure that's really true. We need a 6-seater, and not one that has a child rubbing elbows with the driver. Lots of families around here get large SUVs (like, Suburbans) to haul family and friends and sports equipment and whatnot. I am not really expecting them to switch to the Cybertruck. I'm not sure it's THAT important in principle to have the cargo and passengers in a single space as opposed to storing the luggage and gear in the bed, but for some reason I haven't gotten the impression that the people with these large SUVs would go for that. And the 3-row models with capacity for 7 or 8 people aren't going to be replaced either.

I would expect there to be more people who might get a crossover or small SUV to consider a cybertruck -- some fraction who don't actually consider the smaller size of a crossover relative to a pickup to be an advantage -- but I'm not actually sure whether say a RAV4 or CR-V counts as a "light truck".

The average number of kids in American families is currently slightly under two, and that’s not counting the many individuals and households with no kids who are still buying full-sized SUVs. Not often necessary to seat six people or even five people when looking at the overall population.

Regarding hauling around equipment like sports gear...The Chevy Suburban is one of the largest popular SUVs on the market and it has 42 cubic feet of interior storage volume (unless the rear seat row is folded down), whereas Cybertruck has 100 cubic feet of storage volume. Not even close. Also the Cybertruck vault is easily cleaned and can get wet and muddy without a problem. Being in pickup truck format, Cybertruck also can easily carry larger items like furniture or bikes with the tonneau cover open or the tailgate down.

Eventually a CyberSUV will be made with the Cybertruck platform for people who really want more seats at the expense of cargo volume and range. It would mostly be the same vehicle with a change to the body shell and cabin, like Model 3 and Y, or to go with the Suburban comparison, like GM's T1XX platform that has a common architecture for the Surburban, Tahoe, Escalade, Yukon, Silverado, and Sierra.

By 2030 I'm expecting minimum 2 million Cybertruck sales per year and more like 4-5 million if we include the CyberSUV version and maybe a smaller Cybertruck.

 

[2daMoon]

But realistically speaking, is anybody actually expecting a tesla with FSD to achieve even level 3 in the next 5 years? I mean, has anyone saying this actually rode in a car with FSD? We have full FSD beta. It’s pretty cool and seems to make incremental improvements every version. But on a per trip basis I would say it trys to kill us about 70 percent of the trips we take downtown. No big deal because it’s a level 2 system and we just take over. But I can’t imagine anyone who has driven it thinking we are anywhere close to autonomis driving.

We have an intersection close to us. The car gets in the wrong lane 100 percent of the time and would illegally travel straight thru the intersection 100 percent of the time and guarantee cause an accident. We have reported probably 50 to 70 times. We know it’s important to do that. But still that’s just one of many examples. Again, not a big deal, it’s a level 2 system. We knew that when we bought it. Way fun.

Just my personal opinion but for investment discussion on when FSD even achieves level three….that is years away. Robotaxi?…a decade or more. We are no where close.

I know the flames are comin…got my extinguisher handy.

It is a valid point for consideration. Just have to weigh that wait for FSD against however long it would take to build and ramp the compact Tesla. (if this is what you are talking about)

Personally, I like the odds. Steady progress is happening on FSD and applications for the software are not limited to cars. It will be the foundation for many other AI projects in the works, such as Optimus Sub-prime. Boring tunnels using high-occupancy vehicles are another scenario where FSD will be able to deploy earlier than on city streets.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Even though the Nasdaq pulled back hard, the silver lining is that growth stocks across the board held up. They pulled back some, but held most of their gains. That's a relatively good sign

 

[M|S|M MYP]

This quote from Barra makes me laugh:

"Barra is hoping to keep prices relatively low, banking on chemistry breakthroughs to cut battery costs, offsetting huge price increases for Lithium and other key elements that make batteries work."

Hope is not a strategy. What is GM themselves doing to keep prices low? How are they planning to ramp production so incredibly fast as to pass Tesla's own 50%+ production increases YoY? If I was a GM investor I'd be very, very worried right now, because what Barra says is not jiving with what they are doing.

Has Barra ever said anything that jived with what they are doing?

FWIW...she def sounds like a CEO touting empty promises that will never come to fruition reminds me of a company that GM almost partnered with...NIKOLA..

GM must have poached some of their engineers...since their ex-CEO was the only one that could 'Out Elon-Elon'

 

[MountainRatMat]

Even though the Nasdaq pulled back hard, the silver lining is that growth stocks across the board held up. They pulled back some, but held most of their gains. That's a relatively good sign

Thank you for providing on on-topic post!

 

[Gigapress]

Boring tunnels using high-occupancy vehicles are another scenario where FSD will be able to deploy earlier than on city streets.

Whoa, I missed this news while camping this week! This is huge!

We haven't heard official update from any authorities (other than Elon's "maybe later this year" tweet from two weeks ago) about when autonomous operation would begin in the Vegas Loop until now. The original article which I recommend reading says that Steve Hill, president and CEO of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, said:

• FSD in the tunnels expected sometime in the next fiscal year
• One by one, vehicles will be tested in autonomous mode with safety drivers until the FSD software has proven the safety and the drivers will be removed
• "we think we’re in a position to start testing autonomy relatively soon"
• The configurable high-occupncy Tesla robotaxi is still planned for use in Vegas Loop

I looked up the LVCVA Board of Directors meeting minutes and indeed, on April 12th (link):

Las Vegas Convention Center Loop Operations and Management Agreement
Mr. Finger provided information on the previous year's operations of the Vegas Loop system, highlighting safety and efficiency, provided thoughts on the annual review of this contract and its anticipated future autonomous operation, stated that the system has met the LVCVA's expectations regarding safety and capacity, and requested that the Board consider authorizing the CEO/President [Steve Hill] to execute an agreement with The Boring Company...[to renew the operations and management contract for the Convention Center Loop]...through June 30, 2023.

 

[ZeApelido]

The average number of kids in American families is currently slightly under two, and that’s not counting the many individuals and households with no kids who are still buying full-sized SUVs. Not often necessary to seat six people or even five people when looking at the overall population.

Regarding hauling around equipment like sports gear...The Chevy Suburban is one of the largest popular SUVs on the market and it has 42 cubic feet of interior storage volume (unless the rear seat row is folded down), whereas Cybertruck has 100 cubic feet of storage volume. Not even close. Also the Cybertruck vault is easily cleaned and can get wet and muddy without a problem. Being in pickup truck format, Cybertruck also can easily carry larger items like furniture or bikes with the tonneau cover open or the tailgate down.

Eventually a CyberSUV will be made with the Cybertruck platform for people who really want more seats at the expense of cargo volume and range. It would mostly be the same vehicle with a change to the body shell and cabin, like Model 3 and Y, or to go with the Suburban comparison, like GM's T1XX platform that has a common architecture for the Surburban, Tahoe, Escalade, Yukon, Silverado, and Sierra.

By 2030 I'm expecting minimum 2 million Cybertruck sales per year and more like 4-5 million if we include the CyberSUV version and maybe a smaller Cybertruck.

Yes many of us never had an interest in massive cars (especially trucks) because of the inefficiences and associated perceptions.

1) Massive waste of $$$ on gas / energy
2) Loud noises
3) Lack of association with people who actually have trucks

Cybertruck flips everything on its head. Way less energy waste (and much cheaper especially if you have your own solar). Quiet killer. High utility with less downside.

Techies will buy the truck. Pop culture icons will buy and show off the truck. Classic truck lovers may resist at first, but resistence is futile. Way more efficient than the F150 Lightening, oh and bulletproof.

Watch for when the videos come out of the Cybertruck (literally) destroying competition. Wait for the videos where someone blasts the sides of the F150 and Cybertruck with 100s of rounds of ammo. Wait for the video where someone keeps ramming shopping carts into CT and Rivian.

Wait till there is a video of campers keeping food in their truck in the Sierras. Hummer gets demolish by a bear, CT is left standing.

Cybertruck dominates all. Everyone will want one.

Live in a sketchy part of town? Want a Cybertruck.

Cop? Want cybertruck.

Soccer mom? Cybertuck.

Yearly production will have to be 10 million + to satisfy demand.

Cybertruck will unite us all. Politics will undergo a tectonic shift due to Cybertruck as people actually begin relating to each other.

Wars will cease as soliders and generals see their opposition also owns Cybertrucks.

Poverty will be eliminated as first world citizens drive their Cybertrucks across the world filled with food to donate.

Sea level rise is solved by Cybertrucks carrying out ocean water and dumping it in the high desert.

Cybertruck will solve all of the world's problems.

 

[larmor]

Yes many of us never had an interest in massive cars (especially trucks) because of the inefficiences and associated perceptions.

1) Massive waste of $$$ on gas / energy
2) Loud noises
3) Lack of association with people who actually have trucks

Cybertruck flips everything on its head. Way less energy waste (and much cheaper especially if you have your own solar). Quiet killer. High utility with less downside.

Techies will by the truck. Pop culture icons will buy and show off the truck. Classic truck lovers may resist at first, but resistence is futile. Way more efficient than the F150 Lightening, oh and bulletproof.

Watch for when the videos come out of the Cybertruck (literally) destroying competition. Wait for the videos where someone blasts the sides of the F150 and Cybertruck with 100s of rounds of ammo. Wait for the video where someone keeps ramming shopping carts into CT and Rivian.

Wait till there is a video of campers keeping food in their truck in the Sierras. Hummer gets demolish by a bear, CT is left standing.

Cybertruck dominates all. Everyone will want one.

Live in a sketchy part of town? Want a Cybertruck.

Cop? Want cybertruck.

Soccer mom? Cybertuck.

Yearly production will have to be 10 million + to satisfy demand.

Cybertruck will unite us all. Politics will undergo a tectonic shift due to Cybertruck as people actually begin relating to each other.

Wars will cease as soliders and generals see their opposition also owns Cybertrucks.

Poverty will be eliminated as first world citizens drive their Cybertrucks across the world filled with food to donate.

Sea level rise is solved by Cybertrucks carrying out ocean water and dumping it in the high desert.

Cybertruck will solve all of the world's problems.

If anyone disagrees with above, i suggest you immediately cancel your CT reservation, asking for a friend.

 

[MadScientist23]

Did some news come out about an hour ago that the market reacted so strongly to? We were green across the vast majority of the board and then it all tanked.

 

[mongo]

Did some news come out about an hour ago that the market reacted so strongly to? We were green across the vast majority of the board and then it all tanked.

Apple slowing hiring, they are down 1.8% on the day.

 

[unk45]

I appreciate the counterpoint. I used to hold the same view as you, thinking that Megapacks will only make sense in certain use cases and other storage technologies will serve other use cases.

But I've been following all these other storage technologies for quite some time. And none of them seem to be going anywhere.

I think the root of the problem is that Lithium batteries have been too successful. And when one solution proves itself, that solution gets all the R&D money to improve and extend its usefulness. So Lithium batteries will continue to get better and cheaper. Sodium batteries probably have a good shot too because it is similar enough and we will need a Lithium alternative. But any non-cell storage technology is doomed. (The exception is pumped hydro in locations where that makes sense).

As for straight up competition in the Megapack space, Tesla has a huge competitive advantage. Only the Chinese battery makers have a chance to match Tesla's cost at the pack level. And utility customers will want a name they can trust. They will want a company with serious battery management system credibility. That's Tesla.

So my Tesla Energy thesis is:
1. Lithium and Sodium battery cells are the future of grid storage. I honestly wish it were not true, but it is.
2. While Tesla will have competition from the Chinese, Tesla will have the upper hand everywhere except Asia.
3. Powerwall and VPP will be a fine business, but Megapack will be much larger.
4. Autobidder could also bring in a lot of revenue, but I don't yet grasp its potential.

The potential for Tesla Energy is much greater than the auto business. It's just a matter of waiting for $/mWh to keep dropping.

Maybe that is true. However the anti-China sentiment is mostly in places like the US. In huge parts of the world that bias is largely dissipated (I'll skip examples) in part because major parts of Chinese products have proven high quality, high durability and excellent support. State Grid, Chery, Huawei, Kelon, BYD, CATL the list goes on.

It is both facile and misplaced to ignore Chinese development. State Grid is THE major provider of elect4rical system distribution in most of the world. The US mostly has never heard of it.
Industrially thinking Tesla is not the name to count on. State Grid has far greater credibility.

As a deeply committed Teslaphile I am acutely aware that Tesla is barely known in the parts fo the world that most need improved electrical generation and distribution. Even for battery storage names like BYD and a number of names unknown in the NA/EU markets have better recognition and established positions.
Tesla is totally absent from South America, Africa, much of Asia and Eastern Europe. All those places are now beginning to adopt less fossil fuel intensive policies. Tesla will not be a factor for most of them.

 

[woodisgood]

Soccer mom? Cybertuck.

I see what you did there and I'm telling your wife.

 

[wtlloyd]

Yes many of us never had an interest in massive cars (especially trucks) because of the inefficiences and associated perceptions.

1) Massive waste of $$$ on gas / energy
2) Loud noises
3) Lack of association with people who actually have trucks

Cybertruck flips everything on its head. Way less energy waste (and much cheaper especially if you have your own solar). Quiet killer. High utility with less downside.

Techies will buy the truck. Pop culture icons will buy and show off the truck. Classic truck lovers may resist at first, but resistence is futile. Way more efficient than the F150 Lightening, oh and bulletproof.

Watch for when the videos come out of the Cybertruck (literally) destroying competition. Wait for the videos where someone blasts the sides of the F150 and Cybertruck with 100s of rounds of ammo. Wait for the video where someone keeps ramming shopping carts into CT and Rivian.

Wait till there is a video of campers keeping food in their truck in the Sierras. Hummer gets demolish by a bear, CT is left standing.

Cybertruck dominates all. Everyone will want one.

Live in a sketchy part of town? Want a Cybertruck.

Cop? Want cybertruck.

Soccer mom? Cybertuck.

Yearly production will have to be 10 million + to satisfy demand.

Cybertruck will unite us all. Politics will undergo a tectonic shift due to Cybertruck as people actually begin relating to each other.

Wars will cease as soliders and generals see their opposition also owns Cybertrucks.

Poverty will be eliminated as first world citizens drive their Cybertrucks across the world filled with food to donate.

Sea level rise is solved by Cybertrucks carrying out ocean water and dumping it in the high desert.

Cybertruck will solve all of the world's problems.

I like the way you think.
Sensible.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Elon relaxing on the yacht of Rahm Emanuel's brother, Ari Emanuel off of the coast of Greece. Good opportunity for him to de-stress. I like it. Bullish.

 

[insaneoctane]

Me, personally, I like energy independence. I know that's not an option for everyone, but the utilities here in San Diego county have the highest rates in the nation (now surpassing Hawaii). There is no rational justification for prices here to be 5X what they are in middle-america. The grid is not substantially "better" - as is evidenced by our frequent power shutoffs for high wind.

I went with 4 powerwalls and a large enough solar array to keep them and 2 cars charged up, simply because I don't trust the utilities here not to price gouge further.

You've only limited your exposure to their price gouging. Earlier this year, California was ONE signature away from allowing PG&E from charging people like you (with what I'm estimating as a 18kW solar PV system) $144/month just to be connected to the grid. I, like you, want energy independence, I'm just not sure I'll be able to limit my exposure in state like California!