Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Gigapress]

Have to remind you that the miles on FSD are almost certainly not representative of all the miles driven on average. There is a bias that you will turn it on when you feel it will perform well (as you should with a beta software). Let´s not make this mistake even if Elon has been repeating this reasoning for years.

This is true that the naive comparison is flawed and there are other sources of bias too, such as:

• Miles skewed towards SF Bay Area, Los Angeles and Seattle
• Better-than-average driving required to enter Beta program

However, 175x is such a gigantic gap that even a remotely representative sample is adequate to conclude that FSD Beta driving is vastly safer than normal human driving.

 

[hitchhiker]

No breakthrough needed for transition to sustainable energy!!!!!!!!!

Did I hear that right?

Most experts have been saying that for years. Or rather.. they've been saying that the only breakthrough needed is one in the field of "political will".

Breakthroughs will improve things, but we've been idling for a while. it becomes like deciding you don't want to buy a computer or a car because a better one will come soon -- it basically means you never buy one.

 

[cab]

Anyone else hoping the stock tanks (on FUD) the rest of this week and next to buy the "sale"?

 

[Skryll]

This is true that the naive comparison is flawed and there are other sources of bias too, such as:

• Miles skewed towards SF Bay Area, Los Angeles and Seattle
• Better-than-average driving required to enter Beta program

However, 175x is such a gigantic gap that even a remotely representative sample is adequate to conclude that FSD Beta driving is vastly safer than normal human driving.

Its such a bogus factor, that does not at all apply to general use. This is how fairly highly trained beta testers guard their cars from crashing while on FSD, not FSD navigating safely without attempting to commit suicide every now and then. Yes, there are long stretches where it works just fine, but not in the general case, and not for the general public.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Pro tip: follow all Tesla Twitter accounts. Then you can look at new Twitter posts while waiting for more TMC posts

Edit: TMC -> Twitter -> reddit and repeat

Yeah. Twitter as source of information. Thanks.

 

[SarahsDad]

Installed capacity:

From slide deck: California: 650K (550K 3/Y+100K S/X)
Shanghai >750K

From Conf call:
Berlin: 10K per week by end of 2023 (520K)
Texas: 10K per week by end of 2023 (520K)

So total potential installed capacity by end of 2023 will be >2.44M.

Assuming 50% YOY growth:

2021: 936,222
2022: 1,404,333 (est)
2023: 2,106,499 (est)

So installed capacity by end of 2023 (2.44M) is greater than 50% YOY growth estimate (2.10M), barring supply issues. Bullish.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Anyone else hoping the stock tanks (on FUD) the rest of this week and next to buy the "sale"?

No.
As it turns out, I did not try and trade as I thought I might today. HODL it is.
Tomorrow's another day, but the numbers look good so I don't expect the usual beating post FUD.

 

[Big Time]

CNBC current headline

“Tesla grows revenue 42%, but automotive margins decline​

Tesla’s margins were impacted by inflation and fiercer competition for the components that go into EVs.“


On call, specifically debunked by Master of Coin. He said that the shutdown and restart costs was the problem for the margins. But hey let’s just make up some stuff and call ourselves journalists!

 

[Drumheller]

down the lithium refining rabbit hole....

Elon should have stayed in Greece vacationing at Mykonos island *

This stuff goes over the head of financial analysts and makes them think Tesla is in trouble

* ps: Elon just explained, he is on the call if there are problems / bad news, if all good he will not be on the call
Ergo: having him on the call is bad news

Consider the point of view that Elon is running a company with a focus on "saving the world". The quarterly calls have the necessary financial information but the interesting part for him is discussing how to push the mission forward and pull other people into the effort to change our world for the better.

No breakthrough needed for transition to sustainable energy!!!!!!!!!

Did I hear that right?

This has been true for some time. I keep saying it to people in person and they keep looking at me like I'm crazy.

 

[PKEllefsen]

Lots of good information on the call

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

CNBC current headline

“Tesla grows revenue 42%, but automotive margins decline​

Tesla’s margins were impacted by inflation and fiercer competition for the components that go into EVs.“


On call, specifically debunked by Master of Coin. He said that the shutdown and restart costs was the problem for the margins. But hey let’s just make up some stuff and call ourselves journalists!

Thanks for that snippet. This has been one of the first earnings calls I’ve missed in a while so I was curious what the reason for margin compression was. Of course the media isn’t going to report is accurately in that it’s a one time margin hit from one time circumstance

 

[Discoducky]

Consider the point of view that Elon is running a company with a focus on "saving the world". The quarterly calls have the necessary financial information but the interesting part for him is discussing how to push the mission forward and pull other people into the effort to change our world for the better.


This has been true for some time. I keep saying it to people in person and they keep looking at me like I'm crazy.

This is a big deal and I'm very confident that any other competitive company would *sugar* their pants if they truly understood that comment.

Elon and co saying this tells me a few things:

1. They simply can see continuous improvements in existing tech and processes that demonstrates no appreciable major unknowns
2. Costs and timelines associated with churning through known engineering challenges are under control
3. They see how immensely profitable these are/continue/will be
4. And finally, the vision is not only in total focus but is imminent.

 

[madodel]

How the stock doesn’t move 20% on that one comment alone is hilarious. We’re talking 390k/quarter and 520k/quarter production rates

Yeah "but the margins are all the way down to only 26%". Hahahahahahaha.

 

[Gigapress]

Its such a bogus factor, that does not at all apply to general use. This is how fairly highly trained beta testers guard their cars from crashing while on FSD, not FSD navigating safely without attempting to commit suicide every now and then. Yes, there are long stretches where it works just fine, but not in the general case, and not for the general public.

I’m talking about human-supervised FSD Beta not FSD Beta by itself, which was also the point of discussion in May in response to bogus claims that the FSD Beta program as it exists today is a hazard to society. The combination of human and software applied to the roads and situations it’s been applied to is what’s been safe.

35 million miles with no crashes is extremely impressive. The only question statistically is to what degree is it impressive.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Elon on lithium refining “if our suppliers don’t solve these problems, then we will.”

 

[jabloomf1230]

Elon on lithium refining “if our suppliers don’t solve these problems, then we will.”

Oh boy. I can't wait to see this.

 

[BornToFly]

That was the first call I can remember where Elon didn't say something that made me completely cringe and look for the SP to drop during AH trading.

 

[ammulder]

Interesting that Tesla didn’t mention the Shanghai shutdown to improve the lines, and nobody asked about it. The improved capacity was not shown in the deck, though I guess that at least is understandable as it wasn’t in Q2.

 

[Singuy]

No breakthrough needed for transition to sustainable energy!!!!!!!!!

Did I hear that right?

A breakthrough just allows you to save space from a battery storage perspective and yield more miles from an auto perspective. The hold up is battery storage in which no one really cares about saving space. So you scale production to infinite to compensate for a lack of breakthrough.

 

[StealthP3D]

48 minutes to go.

Wow! I think one of the best calls ever. It might not have been the most upbeat of all of them in terms of euphoric mood but given the challenges they faced and the way it impacted the quarter, totally understandable. Overall, it was a very upbeat call without being euphoric. Tesla management always appears to be open and upfront, but I would say that was even more true this call.

My best summary of this call was that it gave a green light to investors to buy, especially if they have been holding off due to nervousness about uncertainties and the like.