Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[PeterJA]

When Elon introduced Tesla Bot, he said somebody is gonna build such robots, so he wants Tesla to do it to make them safe. I think the same sentiment applies to Artificial General Intelligence, although I never heard him say that, only that he is scared of what AGI could do.

This video makes me very glad he has put his largest company into the race to create AGI.

 

[wtlloyd]

On the subject of FSD, we need to remember that when real safety improvements come about, governments tend to mandate them on ALL vehicles sold. In the US, remember sealed beam headlights? Or antilock brakes? Or seat belts? Or, or, or….? Can Tesla charge extra for a back up camera beyond their material cost? No. When self driving cars really work, Tesla or someone else’s, it will be mandated and the window for big bucks will close rapidly.

Not even remotely comparable.

 

[AudubonB]

This sounds like a rant that the mods would delete. Two wrongs don't make a right.

Not in the least. USUALLY, Mods delete personal attacks. But "Just get over it" was couched as "advice", and therefore merited special handling.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

LFP packs can charge to 100%. A lot of contractors only drive 50-100 miles a day to job sites and for supplies. A 180 mile LFP F-150 Lightning they could charge to 100% every day would be just as good as a nickel based Lightning with 230 miles range which they could only charge to 80%.

I think it's a good fit.

Trucks, especially in commercial use, are going to be tough for EVs (and I am a supporter). EVs get "acceptable" range in cars by being fanatical concerning efficiency, sweating the details on aerodynamics, thermal management, rolling resistance, motor/battery efficiency and weight. Contractors will be hauling heavy loads, carrying tool boxes, mounting ladder racks and loading building materials on them, all things that add load and hurt aerodynamics. Add to that-they need to tow regularly, hauling things like skid-steers, mini-excavators or other equipment to job sites. I'm assuming that 230 mile range under "ideal" conditions will be much closer to 100-125 when loaded and used in these applications and driven at a highway speed (far less if towing). Still, I'm sure they will be the right tool for some contractors. Like anything else, it's a matter of picking the right tool for the job.

 

[thesmokingman]

Trucks, especially in commercial use, are going to be tough for EVs (and I am a supporter). EVs get "acceptable" range in cars by being fanatical concerning efficiency, sweating the details on aerodynamics, thermal management, rolling resistance, motor/battery efficiency and weight. Contractors will be hauling heavy loads, carrying tool boxes, mounting ladder racks and loading building materials on them, all things that add load and hurt aerodynamics. Add to that-they need to tow regularly, hauling things like skid-steers, mini-excavators or other equipment to job sites. I'm assuming that 230 mile range under "ideal" conditions will be much closer to 100-125 when loaded and used in these applications and driven at a highway speed (far less if towing). Still, I'm sure they will be the right tool for some contractors. Like anything else, it's a matter of picking the right tool for the job.

This, plus we didn't get into the energy density discussion. But yea concur. And as you and I wrote, Tesla can do LFP because their vehicle platform has superior efficiency. Even Sawyer Merritt noted this below.

"We believe that Tesla’s positioned uniquely for LFP chemistry because of its industry-leading drivetrain efficiency. Superior efficiency suggests that,unlike its competition, Tesla will offer acceptable range at lower prices with LFP batteries."

Other manufacturers might struggle to make such a switch, because their models are not efficient enough (especially if built using general car platforms, not dedicated to EVs).


We can already see it, as many EVs have to have battery packs bigger than Tesla (higher battery capacity) to offer a similar range to Tesla models. It comes at a price (higher weight and cost).

This Key Characteristic Allows Tesla To Use LFP Batteries

Tesla offers one of the longest-range and most energy efficient electric cars in the world. It makes the company perfectly positioned to adapt LFP batteries.

insideevs.com

 

[Singuy]

Yes - some of our favorite TSLAQ members took short positions entering Q2 earnings.
If they have not yet covered . . .it's only going to get worse. Q3 will sting . . .Q4 will burn

https://twitter.com/x/status/1545728601018224640

At least Gary is fighting the good fight so we don't have to against that bonehead.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Yahoo....please make up your mind:


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Were those really posted only an hour apart?

 

[Ogre]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1549870045383331843

@ZeApelido all yours ....

Didn't he see the 3% drop in margins?

This guy gets paid to write this stuff?

 

[MikeC]

Always remember that when a company misses (or beats) the analyst estimates, it’s the analysts who were wrong, and in an honest world, it’s the analysts who should be punished for doing a bad job, not the company.
But we don’t live in such a world: I kind of expect to see Gordon Johnson being replaced with Lavrov on CNBC soon.

Meteorologist after failing to predict rain the day before:

“The weather came out with a big miss yesterday - precipitation came in high due to failure to get cloud cover under control and wind velocity was greater than expected, while barometric pressure dropped 10% day over day. We’ll see if it can get things turned around and meet expectations for clear skies tomorrow.”

 

[Ogre]

"Cybertruck can't be a work truck"
"Why?"
"Can't get tools from the side. #1 use of a truck." *heads back to the Hamptons to live a life of never actually using a truck ever

The over-the-side thing is one of the few things that bugs me, I did it a lot when I owned a truck.

But sail pillars might make up for it and FFS... we haven't even seen the truck. This kind of stupid nonsense has been dribbling out for a year now. Can we at least wait until someone has actually bought it and tried to see how it works as a work truck?

 

[shrspeedblade]

Sorry, I should have posted this picture from my visit to the delivery center the other day, clearly Tesla is in great shape: look at that stock of TP:

....and here we are over 800 now! Probably good I didn't post it on Tuesday, don't want to be accused of insider trading by the Shortseller Enrichment Commision!

And my contribution to 3rd quarter:

 

[Ogre]

Interesting. Ford was supposedly building a new battery plant at their "Blue Oval City" facility outside of Memphis. Maybe they will be building modules/battery packs rather than cells. The articles I've seen haven't differentiated.

Ford and GM say they are building "Battery Factories", but neither are actually building batteries. They are packaging batteries from other companies similar to the way Tesla packages Panasonics batteries in Nevada.

Analysts/ press are too stupid, disinterested, or have a vested interest in not differentiating the two processes.

 

[Ogre]

Trucks, especially in commercial use, are going to be tough for EVs (and I am a supporter). EVs get "acceptable" range in cars by being fanatical concerning efficiency, sweating the details on aerodynamics, thermal management, rolling resistance, motor/battery efficiency and weight. Contractors will be hauling heavy loads, carrying tool boxes, mounting ladder racks and loading building materials on them, all things that add load and hurt aerodynamics. Add to that-they need to tow regularly, hauling things like skid-steers, mini-excavators or other equipment to job sites. I'm assuming that 230 mile range under "ideal" conditions will be much closer to 100-125 when loaded and used in these applications and driven at a highway speed (far less if towing). Still, I'm sure they will be the right tool for some contractors. Like anything else, it's a matter of picking the right tool for the job.

The contractor who did my drywall tows a trailer everywhere. Most of his trips are less than 50-100 miles round trip. Most of the time he drives 10-20 miles, parks all day, and goes home. Sometimes he drives into town for supplies, that's another 20 miles.

Our electrician and the guy who did our concrete work has a similar routine. Sometimes they tow a trailer with gravel or gear, but usually it's just his normal gear. Even if they tow, it's not 100+ miles of towing, it's like 100 miles round trip.

Towing a skid steer or a mini excavator usually requires a 3/4 ton truck and I doubt any of the Lightnings can do that legally (Cybertruck maybe). The vast majority of ICE are half ton trucks and not legal to tow a mini ex. I've had to deal with it often enough to know that headache.

There is a good reason Ford chose the 230 mile range for the base Pro truck and a 180 mile range LFP truck would work quite well for similar reasons Sure, many will want more, but there is a big market for shorter range vehicles.


EDIT: It is likely the Cybertruck will be more compelling as a work truck due to price/ range/ performance. But it's hard to talk about/ compare 2 trucks which are not on the market yet.

 

[jerry33]

Trucks, especially in commercial use, are going to be tough for EVs (and I am a supporter). EVs get "acceptable" range in cars by being fanatical concerning efficiency, sweating the details on aerodynamics, thermal management, rolling resistance, motor/battery efficiency and weight. Contractors will be hauling heavy loads, carrying tool boxes, mounting ladder racks and loading building materials on them, all things that add load and hurt aerodynamics. Add to that-they need to tow regularly, hauling things like skid-steers, mini-excavators or other equipment to job sites. I'm assuming that 230 mile range under "ideal" conditions will be much closer to 100-125 when loaded and used in these applications and driven at a highway speed (far less if towing). Still, I'm sure they will be the right tool for some contractors. Like anything else, it's a matter of picking the right tool for the job.

Just weight alone doesn’t make that much difference except in stop and go. Not like towing. The truck’s aerodynamics will make a lot of difference.

 

[WarpedOne]

Aerodynamics plays increasingly large part in energy usage as speed increases.
And vice versa.
It has 0 impact while the vehicle is stationary and negligible while moving slowly.
Trucks spend much more time "idling" and moving a few feet around workplace than cars.
Focusing on energy usage while doing +60 mph is myopic.

Cars have odometers, tractors count work hours.

 

[MC3OZ]

Aerodynamics plays increasingly large part in energy usage as speed increases.
And vice versa.
It has 0 impact while the vehicle is stationary and negligible while moving slowly.
Trucks spend much more time "idling" and moving a few feet around workplace than cars.
Focusing on energy usage while doing +60 mph is myopic.

Cars have odometers, tractors count work hours.

Regular stop and start, or getting into he car and adjusting the temperature via climate control, can also chew up a bit of battery.

An LFP pack can start the day at 100%, and energy density is increasing.

But the flip side is someone doing work probably doesn't want to worry about range and charging during the day, and recreational use might involve long distance high speed travel. or sometimes there is a high speed long distance commute to get to the job.

People will eventually find an EV that works for them. The only risk is a customer starting out with a EV truck with limited range, and concluding they need to revert back to ICE. So we definitely need examples of longer range options, to help prevent that return to ICE.

 

[Ohmster]

Holy crap. That’s got to burn. Interesting that the author owns less than a single share.

Tesla ($TSLA) short sellers lost $1.55 billion over the past 30 days

Tesla's ($TSLA) short sellers are down by $1.55 billion according to a report by S3 Partners. July has been burning everyone.

www.teslarati.com

 

[Singuy]

Holy crap. That’s got to burn. Interesting that the author owns less than a single share.

Tesla ($TSLA) short sellers lost $1.55 billion over the past 30 days

Tesla's ($TSLA) short sellers are down by $1.55 billion according to a report by S3 Partners. July has been burning everyone.

www.teslarati.com

I find this comment in the comment section hilarious

"Those who short stocks serve a useful function by acting as a brake on declining price when they reenter the market to buy stock in order to return the amount they previously borrowed."

There you have it folks, shorts are here to keep stocks from crashing to zero because when they cover for a profit, they actually are helping the stock from falling to zero. TslaQ are our saving angels and I can sleep better at night because of them. Q actually stands for Quintessential...

 

[Cobbler]

Holy crap. That’s got to burn. Interesting that the author owns less than a single share.

Tesla ($TSLA) short sellers lost $1.55 billion over the past 30 days

Tesla's ($TSLA) short sellers are down by $1.55 billion according to a report by S3 Partners. July has been burning everyone.

www.teslarati.com

Now it's time for some revenge hitpieces from:

- Fordsumer Reports: Tesla scores low on reliability becauses of all the software recalls
- Admunds : Tesla under performing on the promised range on the Edmunds We-Make-Stuff-Up Range Benchmark
- Reveal: Tesla's working environment is a warzone: unsafe/racist/sexist
- LA Times: "Autopilot should be banned from public roads" says software-expert Dan O'Clown
- Business Insider: Tesla is only profitable because of their BTC selling
- Washington Post: Musk is a liability to Tesla
- J.D. Power: Tesla drops in reliability score (^Tesla is not rank eligible because it doesn't meet study award criteria)

.... ....

 

[Singuy]