Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

An LFP pack can start the day at 100%

As can other chemistries, just set the charge to finish not long before you leave so only a small amount of time is spent sitting at 100%.

 

[jw934]

First test vehicle produced in Giga Berlin with 4680. A new milestone reached.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1550443747929952258

 

[JRP3]

Why do we think Model S/X can only be $100k+ vehicles?

I guess they could move down market but currently Tesla doesn't seem to think that's the way to go.

 

[cusetownusa]

Why do we think Model S/X can only be $100k+ vehicles?

This is what I have been wondering. I get why they are now but you would think Tesla would be able to make a 6/7 seater Mid Size SUV for a more reasonable amount of money. We have a Telluride we would love to replace with an EV (ideally a Tesla) but not spending $130,000 to do. This vehicle size/segment is becoming hugely popular and they would be able to sell a ton of them if they could get it below $80,000.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Why do we think Model S/X can only be $100k+ vehicles?

That's why.

Design Your Model X | Tesla

Design and order your Tesla Model X, the safest, quickest and most capable electric SUV on the road. Learn about leasing, warranties, EV incentives and more.

www.tesla.com

Though I agree-a full-sized sedan or CUV should be possible to produce and sell for far less. Granted, based on the current demand for the existing product, there is no burning need to do so yet, and as investors, every reason not to.

 

[Beltsbear]

Trucks, especially in commercial use, are going to be tough for EVs (and I am a supporter). EVs get "acceptable" range in cars by being fanatical concerning efficiency, sweating the details on aerodynamics, thermal management, rolling resistance, motor/battery efficiency and weight. Contractors will be hauling heavy loads, carrying tool boxes, mounting ladder racks and loading building materials on them, all things that add load and hurt aerodynamics. Add to that-they need to tow regularly, hauling things like skid-steers, mini-excavators or other equipment to job sites. I'm assuming that 230 mile range under "ideal" conditions will be much closer to 100-125 when loaded and used in these applications and driven at a highway speed (far less if towing). Still, I'm sure they will be the right tool for some contractors. Like anything else, it's a matter of picking the right tool for the job.

Those same users rarely drive more than 50 miles one way per day. I am in an area where commercial trucks nest. They swarm a 25 mile radius from 7 am to 6pm. 80% of them could ge LFP. Rural contractors probably are the exception. But they are a minority compared to city and suburban.

Finally, most of these commercial customers have five or more trucks. Replace three of them with LFP and the others can be gas or higher end electric.

 

[Lance Boyle]

We’ve already been there for a bit, it’s just about scaling now.

Solar is already the cheapest energy in the world, with utility scale LCOEs in the under 3¢ range in sunny climates.

Battery prices are already low enough to compete with ICE vehicles.

LFP stationary storage at $200/KWh installed and 10,000 cycle life is 2¢ per KWh storage cost.

It’s all about ramping now.

We can’t pull up the landing gear yet, but the plane is on the runway, has spooled up its engines, and is moving forward faster and faster.

Fasten Your Seatbelt.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Those same users rarely drive more than 50 miles one way per day. I am in an area where commercial trucks nest. They swarm a 25 mile radius from 7 am to 6pm. 80% of them could ge LFP. Rural contractors probably are the exception. But they are a minority compared to city and suburban.

Finally, most of these commercial customers have five or more trucks. Replace three of them with LFP and the others can be gas or higher end electric.

True, and that's something I'm bad about. I've lived in rural areas all my life and relate to those uses. But you're right, most will be used in much more urban environments and not face nearly the range issue.

 

[MP3Mike]

Why do we think Model S/X can only be $100k+ vehicles?

Well, without redesigning the battery pack they only have enough 18650 cell supply for about 100k vehicles per year. (Though they should have a significant surplus of cells on hand right now.)

 

[Artful Dodger]

This is what I have been wondering. I get why they are now but you would think Tesla would be able to make a 6/7 seater Mid Size SUV for a more reasonable amount of money. We have a Telluride we would love to replace with an EV (ideally a Tesla) but not spending $130,000 to do. This vehicle size/segment is becoming hugely popular and they would be able to sell a ton of them if they could get it below $80,000.

Robovan.

 

[jhm]

I guess they could move down market but currently Tesla doesn't seem to think that's the way to go.

I'm trying to get us to think beyond current assumptions. This why I am asking "why" questions. So one more, why do we think offering Model X/S below $100k would be "down market"? What really distinguishes an up market product, the quality of the product or its price?

 

[2daMoon]

I guess the playahs got back from their Summer vacay and are making up for lost time on TSLA.

 

[Drax7]

View attachment 831383

JP Morgan has an aura of competence if you listen to Jamie Dimon‘s pronouncements
and moreover the praise he gets from Buffett.

Then how is it possible their analyst is still employed after being wrong for so long?
Gotta wonder by association if anything else is mismanaged at JPM.

 

[MP3Mike]

So one more, why do we think offering Model X/S below $100k would be "down market"? What really distinguishes an up market product, the quality of the product or its price?

What would you have Tesla remove, or downgrade, on the S&X to drop $20-30k from the price? Would you want a 300 mile range RWD version?

 

[jhm]

That's why.

Design Your Model X | Tesla

Design and order your Tesla Model X, the safest, quickest and most capable electric SUV on the road. Learn about leasing, warranties, EV incentives and more.

www.tesla.com

Though I agree-a full-sized sedan or CUV should be possible to produce and sell for far less. Granted, based on the current demand for the existing product, there is no burning need to do so yet, and as investors, every reason not to.

Why are we basing our assumptions about what the Model S/X could be on "current demand for the existing product"? What would a "first principles" approach to Model S/X look like?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

JP Morgan has an aura of competence if you listen to Jamie Dimon‘s pronouncements
and moreover the praise he gets from Buffett.

Then how is it possible their analyst is still employed after being wrong for so long?
Gotta wonder by association if anything else is mismanaged at JPM.

JPMorgan is the largest financer of fossil fuels on the planet. The company was founded and exists primarily to leverage fossil-based scarcity into profits.

Tesla doing well is not in their interest.

 

[Papafox]

Watching TSLA trade this morning is more interesting than a movie. Market makers really want a Friday dip and so you see TSLA start in the red pre-market and endure a spirited Mandatory Morning Dip. On the flip side, you have buyers who jump back into the stock when they see it going up. Normally the lower volume afternoon favors the market makers so it'd be interesting to see if TSLA can establish enough of a gain in the morning to counteract that force.

 

[JRP3]

What really distinguishes an up market product, the quality of the product or its price?

Price. What upmarket product is cheap? I'm not really clear on the relevance of this speculation though, over time Tesla has moved the S/X upmarket and eliminated lower priced versions. If they see a reason to reverse this I'm sure they will.

 

[jhm]

Well, without redesigning the battery pack they only have enough 18650 cell supply for about 100k vehicles per year. (Though they should have a significant surplus of cells on hand right now.)

Hmm, in Texas, Tesla now has the flexibility to install both structural battery packs and legacy packs. At this point this would apply only to the Model Y line.

So redesigning the Model S/X line to achieve comparable manufacturing efficiencies as the Model Y could envision flexibility around battery packs. If so, the supply of 18650 cells would not be a binding constraint on Model S/X capacity.

 

[jerry33]

What would you have Tesla remove, or downgrade, on the S&X to drop $20-30k from the price? Would you want a 300 mile range RWD version?

Presumably castings plus higher production volume plus lower cost cells plus more efficient assembly (4680) should be enough.