Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

As a rule insiders aren’t considered retail.

That’s why I’m still waiting for the first insider anywhere to tell me “I can get it for you retail”.

 

[bruce4000]

If I could start a company and write an app, I would probably be starting "AirCnC" right about now...

O

Maybe they will in the future.

There seem to be major downsides to vanadium redox flow batteries, from brief searches I did earlier in the year.

1. Vanadium supply chain isn’t built out for it.
2. Installed cost per kWh is very high
3. Highly toxic solution. Wasn’t able to determine if this is a risk to environment, but doesn’t look like a positive
4. Claimed superiority in battery life seems to compare to old data on lithium ion batteries
5. Relatively narrow operating temperatures (though wiki article says exact opposite)

The DaLian battery referenced in the article may or may not even be completed. It started being built years ago and it’s either 400MWh or 800MWh. It was planned to be completed at the end of 2021. I can’t tell if it was ever finished.

Much more, including many listed advantages, found here: Wiki article

There are multiple ways to store energy. Tesla will never get into all of them. I can’t tell if vanadium redox even has much of a future, but it’s competing with all the others, as well.

a Portland OR company ESS has an iron based flow battery which does not seem to need rare / expensive materials. Starting to deliver first units to customers so should see this year if viable.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's just a book-keeping technicality, but in this case it's actually quite significant from a big picture perspective because it establishes the date at which the ownership of every share must be uniquely identified (typically in blocks of shares under the same ownership) so the dividend shares can be matched with them. The number of shares on that date must match the number of shares issued by the company. Any previous sales of TSLA in addition to those will need to be made whole by market makers by buying legitimate shares and substituting them for the synthetic shares the market makers had created in the course of their buying/selling duties. I'm not clear on how much leeway they have in terms of time but, for example, during the last split they were unable to provide the shares in a timely fashion. It was obvious they were still buying shares after the actual split date to balance their books.

My understanding is that even when a stock is not being split, market makers must keep books to ensure an orderly market. but there are a certain number of shares on their books that are always in transition. A split forces them to basically publish a snapshot at a given moment in time of all the legitimate shares. Any synthetic shares floating about need to be retired because they will not be getting dividend shares. It breaks the cycle of floating a bunch of shares that don't exist. These shares are essentially naked shorts created by market makers (they have sold more shares than they have bought in the course of making a market in TSLA). They are supposed to be allowed to do this for practical reasons (at least to the degree necessary to perform their market maker functions), but it appears that when you give the market makers an inch, and they can make money on that inch, then they take a mile (if no one prevents them), and the regulators are not preventing them because it's all one big happy family and no one is the wiser.

The SEC works more for the firms they are supposed to be regulating than they do for you and me.

Nominated for "Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit". Thank-you.

 

[StealthP3D]

Wrong. The CT has an exoskeleton and in no way will need a structural battery pack. The floor of the car may still be the battery though. The 250 mile truck could be LFP and maybe even the 300 mile truck.

Having an exoskeleton in no way negates the benefits of a structural battery. In fact, the structural battery of the CT could be considered part of the exoskeleton.

 

[Todd Burch]

There are valid arguments as to why the Cybertruck ramp could be very smooth and go fast, and why it could be slower than the 3 ramp.

On one hand, there are new production processes which could present unique challenges for the ramp.

On the other, the new manufacturing techniques could make production easier and allow for a faster ramp.

Tesla has told us that the giga castings dramatically reduced number of robots, number of parts, and time to produce those subassemblies. The CT seems to be another step in this direction, as Elon is always striving to reduce complexity and cost. It’s plausible that could make the ramp faster.

Ultimately I think 4680 production will be “The Limiting Factor.”

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Yeah, c’mon guys. Tesla is not close to even starting Cybertruck production and already let this person configure a quad motor and gave them a delivery window? Plenty of people on social media at the front of the Cybertruck line that would be all over this by now on their own orders. Extremely unlikely would be an understatement.

I'm sorry I'm way behind on this forum, but why am I getting such a strong sense of deja vu right now?

 

[Bet TSLA]

Identify one person who actually tried to sell shares and couldn't. I never saw anybody here complain that they couldn't sell their shares, just that their accounts had wrong numbers. So, nobody was cheated by anybody.

There is no broker on the planet who will guarantee that their statements are always correct.

I see a bunch of people disagreed with my post. Yet not a single response providing an example of a person who was cheated.

I suppose it could be somewhere from somebody I have on ignore, but so far it just looks like a bunch of people relying on "common knowledge" that's wrong. The world's kind of upside down when people on this thread act as FUDsters.

 

[Maarten]

The U.S. made a breakthrough battery discovery — then gave the technology to China

Taxpayers spent $15 million on research to build a breakthrough battery. Then the U.S. government gave it to China.

www.npr.org

Thx. Was happy to read that story.
Not for Tesla (pretty sure they will know about it), but a nice example that investigative journalism still exists.

 

[mad474]

Yet not a single response providing an example of a person who was cheated.

I would like to briefly quote a local source on this matter: Even the attempt is reprehensible and punishable by law. Furthermore, we do not comment on ongoing investigations.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I would like to briefly quote a local source on this matter: Even the attempt is reprehensible and punishable by law. Furthermore, we do not comment on ongoing investigations.

Who is investigating what? Was there a post about it? Something, somewhere? If so, please provide a link. Meanwhile, I've still not seen anything other than people being confused.

To be clear, if you look online at your broker and see one share of TSLA after the 5 for 1 split that isn't you being cheated. If you tell your broker to sell your five shares and he doesn't, then you may have been cheated (it depends on what rules you've agreed to for putting in orders and when they have to execute them). All the complaints I've seen don't involve any cheating, they are just people imagining that when they ask about their accounts that the information must be correct.

 

[Dutchie]

A bit of schadenfreude on the late evening

https://twitter.com/x/status/1555013586283552768

 

[WarpedOne]

@Bet TSLA
Every single time someone sells something he does not have and with this affects the price of that thing, he is cheating all of them who do own that thing.
What good it does to me if I was able to sell but at artificially lowered price? I was cheated for the difference!
I don't even need to really sell to be cheated, I might need a security based loan, because of manipulated (yes, manipulated) price I will have to pay more for it.

I'm sick and tired of all the excuses, just don't sell the things you don't have.

 

[kanweg]

@Bet TSLA
Every single time someone sells something he does not have and with this affects the price of that thing, he is cheating all of them who do own that thing.
What good it does to me if I was able to sell but at artificially lowered price? I was cheated for the difference!
I don't even need to really sell to be cheated, I might need a security based loan, because of manipulated (yes, manipulated) price I will have to pay more for it.

I'm sick and tired of all the excuses, just don't sell the things you don't have.

Elon should start his own stock exchange using blockchain. The stock split is three block chain shares for every share currently traded on nasdaq. No more shenanigans.

 

[hobbes]

View attachment 836310

Found this on thetwitter

Source: United States: CO2 Country Profile

Better source (Global Carbon Project): News: Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement

IIRC at the beginning of COVID economic activity and therefore CO2 output dropped sharply, but resumed after a short time. The plots you and @betstarship ship posted have such a long term time scale that it is hard to tell, but the CO2 drop seen at the end could be just due to this and not a sustainable drop (which I would obviously like much more..).

 

[generalenthu]

Elon should start his own stock exchange using blockchain. The stock split is three block chain shares for every share currently traded on nasdaq. No more shenanigans.

Overstock did something that is a bit simpler and not entirely without merit. It paid a dividend on the blockchain. Typically when someone shorts a stock and cash dividends are paid, the party that is short, owes the dividend cash. Not a big deal to pay it out. When a dividend on the blockchain is paid out, the shorts cannot do that in lieu, as only the issuer is able to pay the dividends on whatever blockchain. Even if they can its a logistical nightmare.

This creates a situation where shorts are forcibly unwound and there will be all sorts of pandemonium. I think the volatility will ultimately not be good for the stakeholders in general, but the little corner of me that wants to see short edifice burn down occasionally roots for things like this.

Also it need not just be a dividend on the blockchain. It could be Starlink warrants (which I would prefer). Technically while these too could be borrowed and delivered by shorts, the logistics wont be easy.

The mess will be though with the tens of millions of shares that are indirectly owned via options / Leaps. These ppl will be shortchanged I think. I will be in this camp in fact as a portion of my exposure is via options.

All in all, these sort of things have relatively small likelihood of happening, nevertheless a fun exercise to think through.

 

[Question]

Morning from Eu!

Why isn't there Netflix documentary about Tesla's consensus bubble & record short selling and then being literally the best performance stock & company in 2020? It's hilarious and ironical AF, I mean the consensus worst turns out to be the best - out of thousands of companies. LOL. There is epic material from Spiegel's short selling seminar, bears in finance media, famous people shorting like Gates and Burry etc.

Someone make this happen!

 

[jamaatta]

Competition is coming...? /s

"Toyota has sent a letter to bZ4X owners, offering a choice between a loaner and incentive package or full repurchase of vehicles, as the company continues to struggle with (literally) keeping the wheels on their first electric car effort."

(It's Electrek, I know., you don't have to click...)

Toyota's bZ4X recall isn't going great – company offers car buyback

Toyota has sent a letter to bZ4X owners, offering a choice between a loaner and incentive package or full repurchase...

electrek.co

 

[petit_bateau]

View attachment 836335

Link: https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/21/files/GCP_CarbonBudget_2021.pdf

Here is the per capita version ...... though to be fair to all countries the amount of offshoring of (especially) heavy industry in the immediate post-2000 period flatters many Western economies, to the detriment of China. Accounting for - and addressing fairly and squarely - such offshore emissions is a valid aim of CBAMs.

T

 

[theschnell]

I see a bunch of people disagreed with my post. Yet not a single response providing an example of a person who was cheated.

I suppose it could be somewhere from somebody I have on ignore, but so far it just looks like a bunch of people relying on "common knowledge" that's wrong. The world's kind of upside down when people on this thread act as FUDsters.

There were several examples in this very thread of people whose account balances were not correct for many trading days after the split, and therefore they were uncomfortable selling any shares because they didn’t want to complicate the math before they were 100% sure they were made whole. As I recall, these folks were located in Canada or Europe. Doesn’t change the fact that it happened.

I also recall options holders even in the US having to wait an extra trading day or two for their accounts to be correct, but I’m not as sure on that as the above example.

It’s all in this thread if you want to go back and look.

To your point, I don’t recall any U.S. shareholders not having correct account numbers by Monday morning after the split for shares.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Cue @Paracelsus avatar.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1555148008332972032