Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Roadster comes last. Sorry.

That's OK, I'd rather have the Semi anyway.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think a case for the cup and handle could be made at 950 or 1100/1150 where a pullback or flag before a breakout would happen. I don't think it is one simply due to the size. But here... we... go...

Kinda had a failed cup and handle breakout in April (supports one of significant size can be made). Where we dropped from January, then pushed in late March to Early April with a pull back and a failed handle and breakdown on April 25th. Plenty of reasons around that, but an illustration that not every cup and handle equates to a breakout. So in the case that one forms... a break down on a 950 handle below ~850 and a 1100/1150 handle past ~1000 would initiate a failed breakout where a re-test of recent lows could happen.

Now if a breakout happens, depending on how you calculate it... and I think the depth of the cup here really keeps this breakout of from happening (simply put, it is too deep for a normal version). On a basic level the move from 1150 to 620 sets a 530 move that is pushed up off the handle... so an 1100 handle pulling back ~10% would suggest a move over 1500 and even approaching 1600. If the handle formed at say 950... and a pull back to ~870, we have a much more reasonable 1200 breakout.

I personally can see the pattern of it, but I have a hard time seeing that breakout level... especially to a 1500 level (1200 is within reach). Cups and handles are not usually events at this scale. I hope it happens... but I think it is simply more likely that we break out, hit an unknown resistance level to then have to really figure out where support is as the day traders leave.

Last note here... and hopefully this isn't too unpopular though I recognize I'm a witch for even mentioning this. If we do get a cup and handle with a breakout to 1500.... it would be a fantastic time to hedge or take profits.

All I see is a dog peeing on a fire hydrant. ‍

 

[Krugerrand]

Listening to the Lucid call, I think they need to get rid of the CEO. He seems to have zero concerns about cost and just talk about all their awards and how he personally makes sure every car is perfect before it goes out.

Does he not know there's a clock ticking down fast? This company being established 2 years before Rivian is losing to them on production big time. You couldn't tell that it's a company established just 4 years after Tesla, and yet Tesla's production number beat them out like in 2010. There's only so much goodwill from investors. I think the analysts will tear them a new one. I am frustrated and I'm not even an investor.

And I remember when he left Tesla and many were convinced the sky was falling.

 

[henchman24]

All I see is a dog peeing on a fire hydrant. ‍

I mean TA is just astrology.

 

[betstarship]

China’s Renewable Energy Fleet Is Growing Too Fast for Its Grid

Curtailment, the scourge of wind turbines and solar panels, is rearing its head in China again

www.bloomberg.com

I'm catching up on renewable adoption this year...its ridiculous how much of a growth story, as a country, China has been and still continues to be.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Let's all take him seriously now...

View attachment 836197

So he's in the bottom 1 1/2% of all analysts on TipRanks? Seems like a reason to keep your opinions to yourself!

 

[Singuy]

Bring on the dislikes. My 6th sense crystal ball says, there will be zero CTs delivered next year. Still a long way from tooling the factory, producing test candidates and such. And don't forget they are pushing new engineering and tech in CT manufacturing that has been never been done before. Best case, like Model 3, make a few with a lot of manual touch points and little automation in Q4 next year and real volume production starts sometime in 2024.

The delay of CT was solely due to the unexpected demand for 3/Y. They were all ready to break their backs for the CT production ramp and saw their backlog piled on to way more than they can handle. This was expressed on the conference call.

Elon expected global demand to be around 500k when asked on a conference call. They had plans for CT to come out to fill in demand to maintain growth and eventually the 25k car to continue further that growth. All this has been scrapped and they are introducing delays just to meet current demand.

Is Tesla taking their sweet time? Yes, however they are expecting to hit some kind of growth saturation near year at like 3M 3/Y which sounds about right until they lower prices.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

No. Not everyone can be TSLA.

Whatever do you mean? Every new BEV company is lauded as "the next Tesla" set to dethrone them, in our media.

 

[kabin]

The delay of CT was solely due to the unexpected demand for 3/Y. They were all ready to break their backs for the CT production ramp and saw their backlog piled on to way more than they can handle. This was expressed on the conference call.

Also, the 4680 design and production wasn't ready for the CT or MYLR.

 

[Ogre]

Also, the 4680 design and production wasn't ready for the CT or MYLR.

The 4680 production in Austin still isn't ready for the CT or MYLR still. Kato can't provide the volume for Cybertruck either.

 

[Usain]

Bring on the dislikes. My 6th sense crystal ball says, there will be zero CTs delivered next year. Still a long way from tooling the factory, producing test candidates and such. And don't forget they are pushing new engineering and tech in CT manufacturing that has been never been done before. Best case, like Model 3, make a few with a lot of manual touch points and little automation in Q4 next year and real volume production starts sometime in 2024.

Cybertruck has been in development for a very, very, very, very long time. They've had plenty of time to test and validate their processes.

It's not like production will go off without a hitch, but it will not resemble the Model 3 ramp in any way, shape, or form.

 

[Electroman]

The U.S. made a breakthrough battery discovery — then gave the technology to China

Taxpayers spent $15 million on research to build a breakthrough battery. Then the U.S. government gave it to China.

www.npr.org

"Chinese news reports say the country is about to bring online one of the largest battery farms the world has ever seen. The reports say the entire farm is made up of vanadium redux flow batteries"

Why is Tesla not considering, 'Vanadium Redox Flow' batteries for grid storage?

 

[Mengy]

Bring on the dislikes. My 6th sense crystal ball says, there will be zero CTs delivered next year.

Nah I disagree on that, I'm fairly confident we'll see CT's being delivered in the second half of 2023. Production ramp might go slowly but I feel it will begin.

 

[Electroman]

Cybertruck has been in development for a very, very, very, very long time. They've had plenty of time to test and validate their processes.

Plenty of time to validate the design and spec (hopefully they did that by towing an Airstream, but I doubt it). But you cannot validate the manufacturing process unless you build the manufacturing assembly line

 

[Usain]

View attachment 836310

Found this on thetwitter

Source: United States: CO2 Country Profile

Better source (Global Carbon Project): News: Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement

That data isn't very useful without taking all GHGs into account. Methane emissions have gone up.

 

[Usain]

View attachment 836335

Link: https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/21/files/GCP_CarbonBudget_2021.pdf

Another misleading chart as this one doesn't take into account per capita harm done over time. The US still leads that one by a lot.

But it's best to not pit one country against another as all large nations have to drastically cut emissions to fix the problem. We are all in this together.

And it's even better not to post this kind of stuff at all on this particular thread.

 

[Usain]

Plenty of time to validate the design and spec (hopefully they did that by towing an Airstream, but I doubt it). But you cannot validate the manufacturing process unless you build the manufacturing assembly line

Granted. I'm just saying it should go a lot smoother than the Model 3 ramp. If Tesla has the 4680 cells available, they should be able to crank out a decent number of Cybertrucks next year. I don't see any reason to doubt Elon on this one.

 

[UncaNed]

Plenty of time to validate the design and spec (hopefully they did that by towing an Airstream, but I doubt it). But you cannot validate the manufacturing process unless you build the manufacturing assembly line

It is, after all, the machine that builds the machine that counts.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Whatever do you mean? Every new BEV company is lauded as "the next Tesla" set to dethrone them, in our media.

I'm old enough to remember when every new phone that came out was the "iPhone Killer" and the media repeatedly proclaimed "Apple is doomed, competition is coming!" This is educational, you just had to keep holding AAPL while all the "iPhone Killers" ended up doing nothing and competition was coming for a decade to no effect.

Kind of makes me think that history may not always repeat, but it certainly does rhyme. I'm still waiting for all the "Tesla Killers" because as we all know "Tesla is doomed, competition is coming!" for over a decade now...

 

[Singuy]

The 4680 production in Austin still isn't ready for the CT or MYLR still. Kato can't provide the volume for Cybertruck either.

Lets just say in a world where we don't have the demand of 3/Y right now with 4680s being delayed, CT will be rocking the 2170s. Those ranges they put on the slide deck is most likely 2170 batteries + with some future iterations built in. We see that current iteration of 4680s are not much better than 2170s and the truck was revealed in 2019 with prototypes built somewhere in 2018.