Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[henchman24]

How did you reach the conclusion that Elon single-handedly torpedoed the stock with Twitter?

The entire market crashed in April. The NASDAQ fell 27% from April 1st to mid-June. TSLA’s beta is about 2.1, so the baseline expectation should’ve been TSLA falling ~57%, which is almost exactly what happened. Even the shape of the charts shows strong correlation between wider market moves and TSLA.

View attachment 839131

For all the complaining about TSLA underperforming its beta, I can’t find any actual evidence of that on a time scale long enough to have statistical significance. For instance, the chart above shows the NASDAQ is actually down *more* than TSLA in the last six months.

It wasn't Elon singlehandedly, but he did have a large impact. He announced his Twitter stuff at the beginning of April where there was a huge gap between the Nasdaq and Tesla there. When he started selling post earnings in April, it eliminated that gap quickly and pushed it below. When the fear fo the selling was over, Tesla pushed back above the Nasdaq. Obviously the overall market played into this, especially with it going all the way down to 620.

 

[Gigapress]

So, what you're saying then is... Elon single-handedly torpedoed the whole stock market with Twitter?

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/correlation.png

 

[thesmokingman]

Ok, now back to our regularly scheduled programming....

Another day another recall, this time wait for the surprise, the Hummer EV. I bet you weren't surprised, lol.

GM Voluntarily Recalls GMC Hummer EV For Battery Connector Concern

Since GM didn't involve the NHTSA, this Hummer EV recall is referred to as a Hummer EV Customer Satisfaction Program. The fix will prevent battery connector corrosion.

insideevs.com

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/2022-gmc-hummer-ev-recalled-over-battery-connector-issue-brightdrop-ev600-also-affected-195598.html

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Ok, now back to our regularly scheduled programming....

Another day another recall, this time for waif for the surprise the Hummer EV. I bet you weren't surprised, lol.

GM Voluntarily Recalls GMC Hummer EV For Battery Connector Concern

Since GM didn't involve the NHTSA, this Hummer EV recall is referred to as a Hummer EV Customer Satisfaction Program. The fix will prevent battery connector corrosion.

insideevs.com

So they recalled all 372 of them?

 

[vikings123]

Which begs the question - why didn't Elon wait a bit?

The same reason why he did not wait to sell his shares the first time which if I recall was right after the twitter bid was reported. Elon is obviously wired differently(first principles) and is quick to pull the trigger. History shows that he usually makes the right decision, twitter saga not withstanding.

 

[thesmokingman]

So they recalled all 372 of them?

It seems so including the Brightdrop vans. Added link that covers both.

 

[JRP3]

In a world first, South Australia's big Tesla battery at Hornsdale (owned by Neoen (OTC:NOSPF)) has been approved by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) to deliver grid-scale inertia services.

The Hornsdale Power Reserve in South Australia can provide up to 3 GW seconds of inertia in Virtual Machine Mode, which is ~50% of South Australia's entire inertia needs.

This is a historic key step in renewables providing grid services with no requirement for fossil fuel backup. This has obvious relevance to Tesla's emerging big battery energy storage business.

Tesla Big Battery In South Australia Delivers Again (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Tesla Lithium batteries are now validated by Australian Energy Marketing Authority for grid-scale inertia services. Read what this means for TSLA stock.

seekingalpha.com

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Slowly but surely...Tesla energy is scaling

First Tesla Megapack System Launches in New York City - TeslaNorth.com

NineDot launched a new community-scale energy storage site in the Bronx, New York City, using Tesla Megapacks, as announced on Tuesday. The large battery system will have a 3.08 Megawatts/12.32 Megawatt-hours capacity, as well as a solar canopy and built-in infrastructure to create...

teslanorth.com

 

[Open Interest]

Absolutely. I'm such an idiot sometimes- maybe I was up too late last night...I just realized that I couldn't see that reply anywhere organically on my feed. Even when I read Elon's tweets and replies! I only saw it posted here and because it was clickable link from TMC, I was able to see it that way. Went looking for it twice last night trying to find it again for my screenshot and didn't put 2 and 2 together....I actually had to find the TMC link again in order to screenshot it for my post. Duh. How obvious and yet it went unnoticed even though I was making that point!

I think I had to go through Sawyer’s post to locate Elon’s response.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Slowly but surely...Tesla energy is scaling

First Tesla Megapack System Launches in New York City - TeslaNorth.com

NineDot launched a new community-scale energy storage site in the Bronx, New York City, using Tesla Megapacks, as announced on Tuesday. The large battery system will have a 3.08 Megawatts/12.32 Megawatt-hours capacity, as well as a solar canopy and built-in infrastructure to create...

teslanorth.com

By far the thing I'm most interested for when Q3 earnings come out is Energy. Remember, the Megapack factory was completed in April, so we could maybe start to see some consistent growth in Energy deployment going forward

 

[30seconds]

Good summary of the Wall St narrative on Elon's sale and twitter overhang on Tesla shares

Elon Musk’s Cash Needs Under Fresh Scrutiny After Big Tesla Sale

The Tesla CEO has about $18 billion of cash after his latest share sales, Bloomberg estimates show, short of what’s needed to cover the remainder of his Twitter deal.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Nice birthday awakening. Impeccable timing. Gift was taken away so soon, what did I do?
So... hold or buy? A little risky, but the future looks super bright.

Happy birthday.....hold and buy more!

 

[Mengy]

By far the thing I'm most interested for when Q3 earnings come out is Energy. Remember, the Megapack factory was completed in April, so we could maybe start to see some consistent growth in Energy deployment going forward

Yep, I've been expecting to start seeing energy run up quite a bit soon too. Seems to me like it should be either this quarter or the next.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yep, I've been expecting to start seeing energy run up quite a bit soon too. Seems to me like it should be either this quarter or the next.

We know it's coming, just a question of Q3 or Q4. You figure they've had roughly 3-4 months to ramp that factory and we know that Tesla has said repeatedly, they have plenty of battery supply right now.

If I remember correctly, when the factory production is fully ramped, it's the equivalent of about 20 billion in annual revenue in Megapacks. So it's something that will start to add a meaningful amount of revenue (and finally decent margins) that no analyst is accounting for.

 

[fiveten]

I have an ignorant question. Last time there was a split announced, Tesla had to issue more shares to the market before the split (I am not sure the reason why they had to do so). Could Musk's sale been possibly partially linked to a similar requirement by the SEC or something? Since Musk sold a ton of shares to the market, Telsa no longer needs to issue more shares to the market?

Edit: or maybe it was when they were added to the S&P500 they had to issue more shares or something...

 

[Accident]

I switched from TSLA to TSLL during the MMD (Daily TSLA Bull 1.5X Shares). I'll switch back in 2 weeks after the split.

 

[Nocturnal]

Slowly but surely...Tesla energy is scaling

First Tesla Megapack System Launches in New York City - TeslaNorth.com

NineDot launched a new community-scale energy storage site in the Bronx, New York City, using Tesla Megapacks, as announced on Tuesday. The large battery system will have a 3.08 Megawatts/12.32 Megawatt-hours capacity, as well as a solar canopy and built-in infrastructure to create...

teslanorth.com

It's really not growing too slow in the scheme of things. We are just spoiled with Tesla speed.

 

[henchman24]

I switched from TSLA to TSLL during the MMD (Daily TSLA Bull 1.5X Shares). I'll switch back in 2 weeks after the split.

I didn't realize that launched yesterday... good to know if I want to add some leverage.

 

[Big Time]

I switched from TSLA to TSLL during the MMD (Daily TSLA Bull 1.5X Shares). I'll switch back in 2 weeks after the split.

Those reset each day?

 

[Todd Burch]

Maybe it will take 2+ months to reach new production target levels and those levels are just quite a bit higher than expected. If 12,000/ month is just the start of the ramp...

I wouldn't bet on 15k per month, but food for thought.

I'm not expecting much of a "ramp" needed for these changes. My understanding is that they are just adding "cloned" processes to bottlenecked areas to boost output. No new processes--just more lines or stations to handle higher volume. As long as that's true (I've not heard otherwise but maybe I missed it), then the ramp will be very quick as long as suppliers can support it.