Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think Tesla's PE will compress over time to ~30.... but it might take 10 years to get there, might take 5. Markets are fickle and PE compressions tend to be sticky. Right now, it looks to me that the market is happy around 100. This is already a huge compression from before, but mostly due to Tesla killing earnings time after time and a bear market coming in. So it makes sense to level here. There will be an event and time where it will compress to 75 and eventually to 50, but timing of that is tough to say.

In the end, it wouldn't shock me to see the market price Tesla at 75 pe in October... it also wouldn't shock me to see Tesla at 100 PE at the end of 2023. Either way with the earnings growth, the share price is likely to be very good for us bulls.

If we could actually get a stretch of say 6-8 months......no Elon distractions, no drama....just Tesla executing on Q3, Q4, and Q1 2023, I could see TSLA's TTM P/E set a floor in the 115-125 range with moves up into the 150 TTM P/E area as the macro environment rebounds.

Just need that 6-8 of calm and smooth sailing

 

[petit_bateau]

Yes it is. If you do the math, these sales cover all of the remaining private equity that was in the offer. You debate on wether Elon will actually buy back the shares if the Twitter deal falls through, but this is definitely the end of his selling. Anyone saying otherwise hasn’t read the terms of the financing for the deal

Until TWTR needs refinancing and etc

 

[Ogre]

Short summary, the July Shanghai numbers were much more bullish that the sales/export data suggest. And when you isolate it down to Model Y production, it's extremely bullish. The notion that has been going around that Shanghai would need 2+ months to reach the new production target levels will likely prove to be wildly inaccurate. Seems like less than a month, 3-4 weeks from restarting the line to hitting the new production target goals.

Maybe it will take 2+ months to reach new production target levels and those levels are just quite a bit higher than expected. If 12,000/ month is just the start of the ramp...

I wouldn't bet on 15k per month, but food for thought.

 

[Krugerrand]

The tale will be in the tape of the sales. We will get reports if institutional sold today.

And - so what? That’s what they do. Flog a narrative and sell or buy according to it. Doesn’t matter if it’s true or not. That’s the whole point. They create volatility and capitalize on the churn regardless of what’s true or false. Stop supporting their shenanigans by repeating the bs. Even our wizened Curt regularly talks about them ‘window dressing’ their accounts regularly.

One thing is for sure, the mannequin in Elon’s store window is standing butt naked and you know you’ll never look as good as it whether you have clothes on or not.

 

[Nocturnal]

Honestly, investors should prepare for more of this. These FSD nefarious attack vectors will continue. Enemies of Tesla will continue to search for exploits as FSD progresses. It's hard to know if they will find legitimate edge cases or just FUD...but more of this is coming in our future for sure.

And we know that sooner or later there will be a very nasty accident. Probably late at night involving a drunk abusing the system.

 

[lafrisbee]

I think Elon’s selling wouldn’t look nearly as bad if he wasn’t just telling people that the stock was in buying opportunity range when he surely knew these sales would be coming

Unless maybe he was foreshadowing dumping the shares and that was the real buying opportunity!

I stated that last night when someone was talking about "bad optics". Elon figured his selling would drop the stock ALOT, and he was telling the faithful to buy while it was being down. He didn't say to buy it while it was going up.

 

[insaneoctane]

Might as well say it out-loud: Twitter is obviously limiting visibility of this tweet.

How and when are my Tweets not seen by everyone? | Twitter Help

In some situations, Tweets may not be seen by everyone. Read about instances where a Tweet's reach may be limited.

help.twitter.com

Absolutely. I'm such an idiot sometimes- maybe I was up too late last night...I just realized that I couldn't see that reply anywhere organically on my feed. Even when I read Elon's tweets and replies! I only saw it posted here and because it was clickable link from TMC, I was able to see it that way. Went looking for it twice last night trying to find it again for my screenshot and didn't put 2 and 2 together....I actually had to find the TMC link again in order to screenshot it for my post. Duh. How obvious and yet it went unnoticed even though I was making that point!

 

[Rarity]

If we could actually get a stretch of say 6-8 months......no Elon distractions, no drama....just Tesla executing on Q3, Q4, and Q1 2023, I could see TSLA's TTM P/E set a floor in the 115-125 range with moves up into the 150 TTM P/E area as the macro environment rebounds.

Just need that 6-8 of calm and smooth sailing

Mediating your mood or investment thesis via short-term or mid-term market movements is a recipe for unhappiness and poverty.

 

[henchman24]

If we could actually get a stretch of say 6-8 months......no Elon distractions, no drama....just Tesla executing on Q3, Q4, and Q1 2023, I could see TSLA's TTM P/E set a floor in the 115-125 range with moves up into the 150 TTM P/E area as the macro environment rebounds.

Just need that 6-8 of calm and smooth sailing

It would be unusual for a risk tolerance to rebound that high (by that I'm referencing the 150), that quickly within a market. Not impossible (we saw it with the Covid crash), but it rarely happens that way where risk tolerance is completely wiped and then rebounds that fast. 115-125 is probably the high end of where risk tolerance goes on Tesla in the current environment. We could see spikes up, but holding would be unusual (not impossible).

The most likely outcome is Tesla adds $2 to TTM eps in October and that simply adds $200 to the share price (obviously not adjusted for a split).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Maybe it will take 2+ months to reach new production target levels and those levels are just quite a bit higher than expected. If 12,000/ month is just the start of the ramp...

I wouldn't bet on 15k per month, but food for thought.

Well if I remember correctly, the target goal for the upgraded Y lines is 2200/day. My post was pointing out that if they average 1716/day in the first two weeks after restarting the line, then you have to figure they were at around 2000/day by end of July. I say that because the 1716/average for the two weeks. But the reality is the first week of production was way lower than 1716 because they were just restarting the lines.

Thus, if they were able to get up to 2000/day that quickly, I highly doubt it's going to take them any time at all to reach the 2200/day. And if the Y lines ramp was that quick to hit the new target production rate, we can expect the same out of the 3 line production ramp.


The big caveats though are if another lockdown happens or if a supplier has hiccups that prevent those rates from being consistent. Give the fact that Tesla spent a lot of Q2 building up and storing supplies in 2nd sight, I think Tesla is more prepared to keep these production rates consistent.

 

[henchman24]

And - so what? That’s what they do. Flog a narrative and sell or buy according to it. Doesn’t matter if it’s true or not. That’s the whole point. They create volatility and capitalize on the churn regardless of what’s true or false. Stop supporting their shenanigans by repeating the bs. Even our wizened Curt regularly talks about them ‘window dressing’ their accounts regularly.

One thing is for sure, the mannequin in Elon’s store window is standing butt naked and you know you’ll never look as good as it whether you have clothes on or not.

I don't get the harm of acknowledging something exists... to me I'd rather know the BS out there instead of having my head in the sand. If the tape comes out and says institutional didn't sell, I'd very happy to be wrong.

 

[jw934]

I think Elon’s selling wouldn’t look nearly as bad if he wasn’t just telling people that the stock was in buying opportunity range when he surely knew these sales would be coming

Unless maybe he was foreshadowing dumping the shares and that was the real buying opportunity!

If you are referring to what Elon said during the AGM, the context was : he was asked what are people doing that they should not be doing. His answer was: when the stock dips, instead of worry about it, think of it as a buying opportunity.

Elon was not saying the stock was in a buying opportunity range at that time. Indeed it was not because at the time he spoke Tesla was at $931 and dropped to $851 this morning after his sale was revealed as the cause of the 3 day price drop. I listened to Elon and bought today.

 

[GOVA]

I can imagine some folks being exhausted by the constant drama, but with a pending stock split I struggle to understand why any investors would be selling now

...

All opinion, of course

Which begs the question - why didn't Elon wait a bit?

 

[SN_8]

Actually, yes you can and you are being that way now beyond what’s cute and funny and ‘reality’. You go too far and are feeding a viscous cycle of self negative narrative because you can’t see anything positive, though the latter does in fact exist.

I have a special offer this week only where you can attend my online Zen classes for the low, low cost of 5 pre split TSLA shares. Space is limited so act quickly.

*Fine print: no dogs allowed*

Imagine being so negative that even Krugerrand wants to help you become more positive

 

[insaneoctane]

He is not going to pay taxes. His cost basis is about $1,000. He will have a loss on these sales.

Edit:
Here is info from Gary Black:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1557351146196537344

So, soon the FUD news cycle will have us reading articles about how he's a tax dodger that pays a lower tax rate than his (housecleaner / union worker / Barista)?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Absolutely. I'm such an idiot sometimes- maybe I was up too late last night...I just realized that I couldn't see that reply anywhere organically on my feed. Even when I read Elon's tweets and replies! I only saw it posted here and because it was clickable link from TMC, I was able to see it that way. Went looking for it twice last night trying to find it again for my screenshot and didn't put 2 and 2 together....I actually had to find the TMC link again in order to screenshot it for my post. Duh. How obvious and yet it went unnoticed even though I was making that point!

Nothing, you will see. Move along, you will.

 

[jw934]

Wow, Fred actually did some investigative journalism and called O'Dowd and contacted the test driver to gather the evidence to debunk the claim. Nice article, rare.

In summary: O'Dowd put the responsibility for the reporting of the test on the driver, and when Fred contacted the driver, he was not able to provide any photo of display showing FSD engaged, only a photo showing the Tesla agreement page text before allowing FSD to be engaged.

Tesla self-driving smear campaign releases 'test' that fails to realize FSD never engaged

A Tesla Full Self-Driving smear campaign started by a California billionaire running for Senate has a new attack ad based...

electrek.co

 

[Gigapress]

We're in agreement about the P/E compressing more, but for different reasons. I have always assumed that as long as Tesla kept executing on the 50% growth, the floor for the P/E would be at 100-125........which very much was going to be the case back in April, until Elon torpedoed the stock with Twitter. It has fundamentally changed the dynamic where essentially, Wall St institutional investors don't trust Elon anymore are going to wait until Tesla's P/E/fundamentals are much cheaper now.

How did you reach the conclusion that Elon single-handedly torpedoed the stock with Twitter?

The entire market crashed in April. The NASDAQ fell 27% from April 1st to mid-June. TSLA’s beta is about 2.1, so the baseline expectation should’ve been TSLA falling ~57%, which is almost exactly what happened. Even the shape of the charts shows strong correlation between wider market moves and TSLA.

For all the complaining about TSLA underperforming its beta, I can’t find any actual evidence of that on a time scale long enough to have statistical significance. For instance, the chart above shows the NASDAQ is actually down *more* than TSLA in the last six months.

 

[2daMoon]

How did you reach the conclusion that Elon single-handedly torpedoed the stock with Twitter?

The entire market crashed in April. The NASDAQ fell 27% from April 1st to mid-June. TSLA’s beta is about 2, so the baseline expectation should’ve been TSLA falling ~54%, which is almost exactly what happened. Even the shape of the charts shows strong correlation between wider market moves and TSLA.

View attachment 839131

For all the complaining about TSLA underperforming its beta, I can’t find any actual evidence of that on a time scale long enough to have statistical significance. For instance, the chart above shows the NASDAQ is actually down *more* than TSLA in the last six months.

So, what you're saying then is... Elon single-handedly torpedoed the whole stock market with Twitter?

/s

 

[Prunesquallor]

Forgive me, I have sinned. I have posted a link to Electrek.

in my defense, Fred goes through a pretty convincing argument that FSD was never engaged during the O’Dowd tests.

…The Dawn Project’s own video of the test shows the driver “activating” FSD Beta by pressing on the Autopilot stalk, but we can clearly see that it didn’t activate because the course prediction line stays grey and the Autopilot wheel doesn’t appear on the top left:…

The vehicle does appear to be equipped with FSD Beta, or at least FSD Beta visualization, but it clearly wasn’t activated during this test.

The explanation is likely quite simple. Tesla FSD Beta still relies on map data, and this test was performed on a closed course at Willow Springs International Raceway in Rosamond, California.
…
That said, you can’t produce a test of FSD Beta where you don’t even activate FSD Beta. The Dawn Project and O’Dowd screwed up big time posting this. They should take this down right now considering they can’t claim that they don’t know the test was a failure at this point.

Tesla self-driving smear campaign releases 'test' that fails to realize FSD never engaged

A Tesla Full Self-Driving smear campaign started by a California billionaire running for Senate has a new attack ad based...

electrek.co

Edit: ninja’d by @jw934