Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Have to agree that Teslas negative acquisition of Twitter is a huge blow to investor confidence as no one signed up for this. I say Tesla's acquisition because the transaction of all share transaction makes no difference when say AMD did an all share buy out of xilinx. However the big difference is Twitter's equity is not added back into Tesla. Tesla gets 0% of twitters' revenue or assets, however we the shareholder paid for it through Elon. Without us shareholders, Elon's shares are not valuable hence he can't buy a thing with them. This is probably one of the reason Tesla's valuation can be risky under Elon's random buys.

Speak for yourself only. I signed up for the whole ball of wax. All of it. Everything perceived good or bad. I didn’t go all in over 10 years ago to be finicky, overly critical, or second guess the decisions I might not like.

I did my research. I understood from the start the tremendous risk. I understood Elon was going to be both incredibly predictable and unpredictable all in the same breath.

I only have energy enough for an unenthusiastic eye roll for this last set of Elon selling.

Elon is the best show on the planet and the gift that just keeps on giving. I am entertained, Maximus!

 

[Krugerrand]

Have to agree that Teslas negative acquisition of Twitter is a huge blow to investor confidence as no one signed up for this. I say Tesla's acquisition because the transaction of all share transaction makes no difference when say AMD did an all share buy out of xilinx. However the big difference is Twitter's equity is not added back into Tesla. Tesla gets 0% of twitters' revenue or assets, however we the shareholder paid for it through Elon. Without us shareholders, Elon's shares are not valuable hence he can't buy a thing with them. This is probably one of the reason Tesla's valuation can be risky under Elon's random buys.

Speak for yourself only. I signed up for the whole ball of wax. All of it. Everything perceived good or bad. I didn’t go all in over 10 years ago to be finicky, overly critical, or second guess the decisions I might not like.

I did my research. I understood from the start the tremendous risk. I understood Elon was going to be both incredibly predictable and unpredictable all in the same breath.

I only have energy enough for an unenthusiastic eye roll for this last set of Elon selling.

Elon is the best show on the planet and the gift that just keeps on giving. I am entertained, Maximus!

 

[Artful Dodger]

While were on Max Pain topic.... Green wins this chart. Seems surprising the stock didn't move more to the center. Give it time I guess...

Max pain? Here ya' go:

Etsy Inc.

ETSY

0.03954

115.21

6.34

(5.82%)

 

[Mengy]

I've resigned myself to the reality that loss of investor confidence will likely mean TSLA's valuation metrics will drop absurdly low. Probably settle in the TTM P/E range of 40-50 before I put expectations on TSLA's trading action going forward. At least for the next 6 months.

I think you now understand why I keep predicting TSLA's PE Ratio will continue to fall over time along the declining trend line, thereby holding the stock lower than most people feel it should be at!

I'd say retail investor confidence is very strong, BUT most retails who want to own the stock already have it, they don't seem to be buying in large quantities any more. What needs to happen to truly move the stock and PE up is Wall Street buying, and like you state above, I too feel pro investors lack confidence in Tesla's future to really drive it up right now. Whether that is because they don't understand Tesla, or they don't trust Elon, or they don't LIKE Elon, or they feel TSLA is still overvalued, or how the stock is still rated junk credit wise, and so on. Whatever the reason, Wall Street isn't buying TSLA en masse right now, and this meager volume allows the MM's to control the price nearly completely, and UNTIL THAT CHANGES I feel the stock will continue to be held well under it's ATH.

That might be a period of a few weeks or months, or it could be a few years yet, without a crystal ball no one knows. But new buyers and volume need to come in to break us out of this MM rut, and for now I don't see that happening. The split and subsequent lower share price might bring in new retail, but I doubt it will be enough volume to overwhelm the MM's.

Investors who want to own TSLA already do, and new buyers aren't coming right now due to a myriad of reasons.

My hunch is we have a good year or two yet until the stock breaks way out again, and by then we'll likely have a PE less than 60 due to manipulation and earnings compression.

 

[Krugerrand]

Twitter overhang and not trusting Elon's word. Elon said before no more sales (with an out) and he's saying it again. Institutional investors simply don't trust him and think there is a chance of another 7-9b set of sales. Until the Twitter overhang is over, it will weigh on the stock with spurts of greater impact (last few days and today is that). Tesla will move with the macro (which is also starting to struggle) and after today, likely return to the normal beta (with a chance of some spikes during the split). After that we are looking at Sept Shanghai production. There are good things ahead, but there is clearly noise right now.

Stop it. False narrative abounds. Institutional investors don’t give a flying monkey about Elon selling shares, blah, blah, blah. They care about making money and capitalizing on made up tales that YOU (and many others) are happy to flog for them to generate and prolong the narrative they want so they can make even more money. Stop the madness, pls and tx.

 

[Paul_SF]

Imagine having billions in cash that you can use at any time to just buy shares straight on the open market… Like what that would do to the shorts/MMs?

 

[2daMoon]

The brief period of time I had the TWTR app installed to follow EM and some others, I NEVER got a notification that he ever posted anything. I kept getting alerts and messages promoting certain politics. Made me feel like I was stupid and could not figure out how to use it. I deleted it and felt better.

Somebody should buy that company and straighten all this stuff out.

 

[AndrewZ]

I think Elon’s selling wouldn’t look nearly as bad if he wasn’t just telling people that the stock was in buying opportunity range when he surely knew these sales would be coming

Unless maybe he was foreshadowing dumping the shares and that was the real buying opportunity!

 

[thx1139]

I think Elon’s selling wouldn’t look nearly as bad if he wasn’t just telling people that the stock was in buying opportunity range when he surely knew these sales would be coming

Unless maybe he was foreshadowing dumping the shares and that was the real buying opportunity!

Wasnt he saying that hey a buying opportunity is coming.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think you now understand why I keep predicting TSLA's PE Ratio will continue to fall over time along the declining trend line, thereby holding the stock lower than most people feel it should be at!

I'd say retail investor confidence is very strong, BUT most retails who want to own the stock already have it, they don't seem to be buying in large quantities any more. What needs to happen to truly move the stock and PE up is Wall Street buying, and like you state above, I too feel pro investors lack confidence in Tesla's future to really drive it up right now. Whether that is because they don't understand Tesla, or they don't trust Elon, or they don't LIKE Elon, or they feel TSLA is still overvalued, or how the stock is still rated junk credit wise, and so on. Whatever the reason, Wall Street isn't buying TSLA en masse right now, and this meager volume allows the MM's to control the price nearly completely, and UNTIL THAT CHANGES I feel the stock will continue to be held well under it's ATH.

That might be a period of a few weeks or months, or it could be a few years yet, without a crystal ball no one knows. But new buyers and volume need to come in to break us out of this MM rut, and for now I don't see that happening. The split and subsequent lower share price might bring in new retail, but I doubt it will be enough volume to overwhelm the MM's.

Investors who want to own TSLA already do, and new buyers aren't coming right now due to a myriad of reasons.

My hunch is we have a good year or two yet until the stock breaks way out again, and by then we'll likely have a PE less than 60 due to manipulation and compression.

View attachment 839102

Yes and no.

We're in agreement about the P/E compressing more, but for different reasons. I have always assumed that as long as Tesla kept executing on the 50% growth, the floor for the P/E would be at 100-125........which very much was going to be the case back in April, until Elon torpedoed the stock with Twitter. It has fundamentally changed the dynamic where essentially, Wall St institutional investors don't trust Elon anymore are going to wait until Tesla's P/E/fundamentals are much cheaper now.

Where we differ is the duration of the time. Based on my expectations for Tesla's earnings for Q3 and Q4, the TTM P/E will be in the 50's after Q4 earnings with Forward P/E in the high 30's. I think that valuation is so cheap it overcomes any Elon antic. So I could see the stock stagnating for the next 5 months. But that's it. It simply won't keep compressing for a year or years. You'd talking about TTM P/E in the low 20's/upper teens and that's where I feel your feeling become rather irrational.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We're about 4/5 of the way to all this stuff coming together today. Just need the actual EIA weekly crude supply report to confirm oversupply and keep a cap on WTI as the markets rip higher. Big day.

US commercial crude and refined fuels oversupplied by +13M barrels last week. Should push oil futures down and continue the erosion of this price gouging trade.

With no further covid setbacks, we should be in beautiful shape in relatively short order. Booming jobs market, just in time for back to school. Rates aren't spiking. Oil heading south, with no real bottom and no spike in demand on the horizon. All we need is China to vaccinate and chill.

Imagine if Putin is somehow removed from power and EU/Russia relations eased. The whole world would take off ike a rocket.

 

[henchman24]

Stop it. False narrative abounds. Institutional investors don’t give a flying monkey about Elon selling shares, blah, blah, blah. They care about making money and capitalizing on made up tales that YOU (and many others) are happy to flog for them to generate and prolong the narrative they want so they can make even more money. Stop the madness, pls and tx.

The tale will be in the tape of the sales. We will get reports if institutional sold today.

 

[larmor]

I think Elon’s selling wouldn’t look nearly as bad if he wasn’t just telling people that the stock was in buying opportunity range when he surely knew these sales would be coming

Unless maybe he was foreshadowing dumping the shares and that was the real buying opportunity!

Or he knows what alpha FSD is like, and is telling everyone directly that TSLA is undervalued. Combined with many quotes from several conference calls, where FSD revenue stream is projected to dwarf everything else known to mankind, presumably this includes making paperclips.

 

[Mengy]

Yes and no.

We're in agreement about the P/E compressing more, but for different reasons. I have always assumed that as long as Tesla kept executing on the 50% growth, the floor for the P/E would be at 100-125........which very much was going to be the case back in April, until Elon torpedoed the stock with Twitter. It has fundamentally changed the dynamic where essentially, Wall St institutional investors don't trust Elon anymore are going to wait until Tesla's P/E/fundamentals are much cheaper now.

Where we differ is the duration of the time. Based on my expectations for Tesla's earnings for Q3 and Q4, the TTM P/E will be in the 50's after Q4 earnings with Forward P/E in the high 30's. I think that valuation is so cheap it overcomes any Elon antic. So I could see the stock stagnating for the next 5 months. But that's it. It simply won't keep compressing for a year or years. You'd talking about TTM P/E in the low 20's/upper teens and that's where I feel your feeling become rather irrational.

Well, by years I mean by around end of 2023 or so, and that's worst case. By that point Tesla's financials will be far too strong to keep the stock below the ATH, there is only so far a PE can be compressed before math takes over.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think you now understand why I keep predicting TSLA's PE Ratio will continue to fall over time along the declining trend line, thereby holding the stock lower than most people feel it should be at!

I'd say retail investor confidence is very strong, BUT most retails who want to own the stock already have it, they don't seem to be buying in large quantities any more. What needs to happen to truly move the stock and PE up is Wall Street buying, and like you state above, I too feel pro investors lack confidence in Tesla's future to really drive it up right now. Whether that is because they don't understand Tesla, or they don't trust Elon, or they don't LIKE Elon, or they feel TSLA is still overvalued, or how the stock is still rated junk credit wise, and so on. Whatever the reason, Wall Street isn't buying TSLA en masse right now, and this meager volume allows the MM's to control the price nearly completely, and UNTIL THAT CHANGES I feel the stock will continue to be held well under it's ATH.

That might be a period of a few weeks or months, or it could be a few years yet, without a crystal ball no one knows. But new buyers and volume need to come in to break us out of this MM rut, and for now I don't see that happening. The split and subsequent lower share price might bring in new retail, but I doubt it will be enough volume to overwhelm the MM's.

Investors who want to own TSLA already do, and new buyers aren't coming right now due to a myriad of reasons.

My hunch is we have a good year or two yet until the stock breaks way out again, and by then we'll likely have a PE less than 60 due to manipulation and earnings compression.

View attachment 839102

No.

That period for TSLA is over. No one needs to "believe" in anything anymore. It's now about earnings and growth.

Thats a simple language that Wall Street can easily understand. To some degree they need faith in the growth story, but that's no longer the sole means of valuation. Tesla made $2B+ in profits last quarter.

SP will be moving up not because retail wants to own TSLA, but because institutional buyers will have to own it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

No.

That's period TSLA is over. No one needs to "believe" in anything anymore. It's now about earnings and growth.

Thats a simple language that Wall Street can easily understand. To some degree they need faith in the growth story, but that's no longer the sole means of valuation. Tesla made $2B+ in profits last quarter.

SP will be moving up not because retail wants to own TSLA, but because institutional buyers will have to own it.

Correct, the scale of Tesla's earnings/revenue will start to really take over in Q3.

Wall St may continue to hate Elon, but once Tesla's earnings reach critical scale, it forces the issue. Wall St got insanely lucky with the Covid Shanghai shutdowns......just incredibly lucky

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Let's all be happy that $TSLA never went red today and has 200x from the day's lows

 

[elasalle]

Imagine having billions in cash that you can use at any time to just buy shares straight on the open market… Like what that would do to the shorts/MMs?

If TSLA doesn't do buybacks, EM could do it on his own (that is if TWTR deal goes south )

(He did pay the 20M fine and director insurance etc. in the past ) ...

 

[henchman24]

I think Tesla's PE will compress over time to ~30.... but it might take 10 years to get there, might take 5. Markets are fickle and PE compressions tend to be sticky. Right now, it looks to me that the market is happy around 100. This is already a huge compression from before, but mostly due to Tesla killing earnings time after time and a bear market coming in. So it makes sense to level here. There will be an event and time where it will compress to 75 and eventually to 50, but timing of that is tough to say.

In the end, it wouldn't shock me to see the market price Tesla at 75 pe in October... it also wouldn't shock me to see Tesla at 100 PE at the end of 2023. Either way with the earnings growth, the share price is likely to be very good for us bulls.

 

[insaneoctane]

Even more difficult to believe that in over 10 billion miles of autopilot data, this is the very first time any car has ever seen a 12-mth-old toddler-sized, immobilea mannequin, dressed like a traffic cone, standing completely still in the middle of a road, lined with traffic cones, and no adults anywhere to be seen. What are the chances? /s

This is not an 'edge-case', its a case of a desperate loser trying with his last o'dowd to remain relevant. Too sad.

Honestly, investors should prepare for more of this. These FSD nefarious attack vectors will continue. Enemies of Tesla will continue to search for exploits as FSD progresses. It's hard to know if they will find legitimate edge cases or just FUD...but more of this is coming in our future for sure.