2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
SMR covers Ross Gerber's presentation. Great stuff, including his pointing out the national security aspects of Tesla's mission.
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It kind of ticks me off. I'm speaking in regards to the global ev movement and these bum chargers really sour the experience. I can't imagine it being a positive promoter for the adoption of ev's, you know what I mean?
The morning of the 25th will see the sun rise along with your share count as, overnight, they tripled in number. Fear not that the stock price dropped to a 1/3 of what you remember as all graphs and charts shall be updated to the dawn of time with the new normal.Just to help me understand, when the effective date on the split is 25th of August, should I have 3x as many shares on the morning of 25th or 26th of August. As in is it into 25th of out of 25th?
The question could be rephrased to when are the shares officially delayed at my broker?
Saved me from looking it up. Still good news anyway.Nice to see some change in this direction, however it should be noted that Bank Australia is miniscule (441 employees and A$131m in revenues last year according to Wikipedia) so impacts will be negligible. I lived in Australia most of my life and worked in the finance industry and hadn't heard of them.
What is the value of safety for your spouse and children? This is the demand driver that seems overlooked. FSD becomes worth more than the EV.I've been thinking about Ashok's presentation a bit more. It really seems that they have ~solved crashes, at least causing crashes. Both in FSD and in humanpilot. It took a combination of a very good perception stack, an occupancy grid with flow, a neural network to evaluate possible poses, a search function and the rest of the software 1.0 stack, electric motors etc. The end result might be a reduction in the number of self caused accidents by a magnitude.
So let's assume this is true. What happens if there is an ADAS feature that reduces the number of accidents by 90%? Will not all other car makers be required to also have this feature? But they cannot do it... Will they be forced to buy it from Tesla? Let's say Tesla can sell HW3, cameras etc for $10k. If not, will Tesla's not become super popular? How much extra would you pay for a car that has 90% lower chance to kill you?
This is not even taking into account FSD and the massive leap that 10.69 seems to be.
I suspect nearly all of us have non-Tesla investments that have worked out poorly. I have had a few. The worst I have had were ones on which I took ‘professional’ advice, every one of those lost money. Next was thinking that my PhD studies in financial markets, including a Nobel Prize winner-led seminar, meant I understood options. I lost a little more than 100% on that one.I’ve found the easiest - and most painful - way to stay humble is to focus on all the failures you’ve had as proselytizers either for purchasing a Tesla or for buying TSLA.
Successes in either of those goals are terrific, but why-oh-why have I been unable to convince that friend or relative to think clearly and do as we have done?
It is very, very humbling.
I'd be surprised if any of them are profitable today. Even the SpC's are marginally profitable with a utilization rate that overall is probaby 10X larger. I'm basing this onI honestly don't know how they can be profitable when they are so unreliable. The amount of money they pocket is chump change compared to their operational cost. Seems to be an engineering problem and not a negligence of maintenance. Honestly how many people use these chargers before they break? 5 Charges? 20 charges?
EA has changed vendors as reliability dictates but the fatal flaw with any third party charging network is the cluster of various software's. The issue you bring up has always been a red flag to me that once the funds are gone, who's responsible for maintenance? IMO, if Tesla is squeezing out a 10% profit with a significantly higher utilization rate, along with an 80% lower install cost per portal, and a higher rate per kWh, I find it impossible for EA to ever self fund.EA buys chargers from 4 different vendors so they likely have to deal with different support networks and parts for the various charging units. I haven’t seen the ones in the above tweet for example. Tesla’s in-house expertise here is a big advantage for reliability. When EAs chargers have reliability problems, they can’t just fix the problem at the source.
Can't disagree to some extent but as much as we see the Tesla SpC's as the gold standard, competition is a net positive. However, if Tesla successfully can open up the SpC Network, I would expect the already underutilized third party infrastructure to whither away organically.This is gonna sound crazy but they should just ban public chargers and the whole apparatus as it is since the companies taking the subsidies for public chargers do jack about maintaining them. There's no sense wasting money and time to put a thing in and it doesn't work, just sits there pissing everyone off. It leads to a crap experience for those very important adopters and it wastes massive resources and real estate. Instead they should just take all those subsidies and contract Tesla to build it out and maintain it. Eventually the state and local could take it over or hell just let Tesla keep doing what they do best.
As mentioned above, it's like coming up with a language that is understandable to a multitude of cultures, without room for misinterpretation. I expected Tesla to have some similar niggles when they opened up the European network to non-Tesla's but it seems that they avoided that entire fiasco but making the communications/payment system entirely app based. Typical Tesla brilliance that seems to evade the competition.It was a brilliant move by Tesla to make the chargers super dumb and put all the smarts in the car. I don't understand why EA is having such a hard time keeping their systems working. Terrible software seems like a culprit.
From where we stand, it seems like a no brainer for any new entry into the BEV field to partner up with Tesla like Aptera is doing. How big of an advantage would Honda, Suburu, Toyota have if their initial entry into BEV's was part of the SpC Network. They would instantaneously leapfrog everyone else and struggle to meet demand long after the chip/battery shortages are alleviated. Now that Tesla is opening it up, it's not as big of an advantage as long as the adapter allows full power.I’m sure the non-Tesla world will be a st show.
Ford, GM, etc should be lobbying and working hard to ensure these networks are reliable. This whole story is playing out more and more into Tesla’s hands. It only takes 1-2 stops at unreliable chargers to spoil a trip. Imagine getting towed for a dead battery, your car gets dropped off the back of the tow truck, you plug in and that charger is dead too. Or the situation where your 12v system is too dead to start the fast charger.
Once non-Tesla support on the Supercharger networks roll out, people are going to gravitate towards it whether they want to or not. They will hit one too many bad EA or chargers and switch. You’ll roll up to a Supercharger and there will be a Mach E. The driver will bitch about how they hate Tesla and Elon but they have the only reliable chargers. A year later you’ll see them driving around in a Model Y…
Yep, that simulation of a driver not holding the steering wheel while applying full throttle is super compelling. The car is seemingly incapable of hitting anything due to the systems ability to so quickly and confidently identify objects (10ms) and route a safe path accordingly.I've been thinking about Ashok's presentation a bit more. It really seems that they have ~solved crashes, at least causing crashes. Both in FSD and in humanpilot. It took a combination of a very good perception stack, an occupancy grid with flow, a neural network to evaluate possible poses, a search function and the rest of the software 1.0 stack, electric motors etc. The end result might be a reduction in the number of self caused accidents by a magnitude.
So let's assume this is true. What happens if there is an ADAS feature that reduces the number of accidents by 90%? Will not all other car makers be required to also have this feature? But they cannot do it... Will they be forced to buy it from Tesla? Let's say Tesla can sell HW3, cameras etc for $10k. If not, will Tesla's not become super popular? How much extra would you pay for a car that has 90% lower chance to kill you?
This is not even taking into account FSD and the massive leap that 10.69 seems to be.
Love the detail and candidness of the release notes...Here a link to the Release Notes for FSD 10.69 on twitter
IIRC the initial improved efficiency was due the front motor having slightly taller gearing to allow for it to be in an more efficient RPM range at highway cruising speed, where it was the primary motor.didn’t the P85D with introduction of the extra motor have improved efficiency?
The single reason I cannot currently recommend any non-Tesla EV to anyone in the US.It kind of ticks me off. I'm speaking in regards to the global ev movement and these bum chargers really sour the experience. I can't imagine it being a positive promoter for the adoption of ev's, you know what I mean?
Also, we have an answer to our previous discussion about release notes. FSD 10.69 release notes are not the same as 10.13.
For me, (dumb luck)^3.I suspect nearly all of us have non-Tesla investments that have worked out poorly. I have had a few. The worst I have had were ones on which I took ‘professional’ advice, every one of those lost money. Next was thinking that my PhD studies in financial markets, including a Nobel Prize winner-led seminar, meant I understood options. I lost a little more than 100% on that one.
Humility I deserve. TSLA and a couple of other winners were mostly dumb luck, even though I insist superior analysis was really responsible.
Whenever hubris threatens me I return my thought to the events of the prior paragraph.
We all deserve a little humility. None of us are really .omniscient.
So let's assume this is true.
What happens if there is an ADAS feature that reduces the number of accidents by 90%? Will not all other car makers be required to also have this feature? But they cannot do it... Will they be forced to buy it from Tesla?
This is when we ordered our S85D, purely dumb luck. We had scheduled a test drive weeks in advance and surprised when we arrived at the long lines, it was the first day these could be ordered and many educated Tesla owners (we were not one of those at that time) had delayed ordering to get the Autopilot.I believe it was the S85D aka Model S AWD with 85 kwh pack.
Tesla Reveals 'D' All-Wheel-Drive Model S, 'Autopilot' Feature
In the end, the online rumors proved to be largely accurate. Last night, Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk revealed an all-wheel-drive version of the Tesla Model S electric luxury car--known as 'D'--whose most powerful P85D version will accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in just 3.2 seconds. DON'T MISS: Tesla...www.greencarreports.com
"The AWD version adds highway range: The Model S '85D' version with an 85-kilowatt-hour battery pack has 295 miles of range (at 65 mph), the 'P85D' has 275 miles"
It is only a demand driver for well informed buyers. The percentage of car buyers that is well informed about FSD is fairly low and there is a significant FUD campaign ongoing to keep it that way or push it even lower. With the release of the new version you can expect the FUD to be dialed up further, even beyond 11.What is the value of safety for your spouse and children? This is the demand driver that seems overlooked. FSD becomes worth more than the EV.
Then the issue surfaces of the true opportunity of robo taxis vs individual ownership. Life gets interesting