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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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It kind of ticks me off. I'm speaking in regards to the global ev movement and these bum chargers really sour the experience. I can't imagine it being a positive promoter for the adoption of ev's, you know what I mean?

It's been similar in Norway too. Tesla chargers are much more reliable than 3rd party chargers.

When I visit my mum for more than a day or two I use a couple of charging points. If my preferred place by the shopping centre is out of service I use the one at the gas station. It happens enough that I know them both. And I don't visit my mum that often. 🙄

3rd party chargers in Norway are mostly installed by energy companies so they should be interested in them being available. My guess is that too many possible combinations of cars and charger brands is one issue. Complicated tech in the chargers is the other one.
 
This is the waymo video people are raving about for sf. Notice waymos approach is to cap max mph to 25 while most of the time going in the teens. I noticed in whole mars video that these streets are rated for 30-40 mph. You can tell that many cars are just zooming past the waymo.

Also noticed this uncut version has a cut for that unprotected left turn. There were many times it just stops in the middle of the street for no good reason. It's hard to noticed with the video sped up to 4x speed. IThis is how they fake it, go really slow so it's a robotaxi of annoyance.

 
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Just to help me understand, when the effective date on the split is 25th of August, should I have 3x as many shares on the morning of 25th or 26th of August. As in is it into 25th of out of 25th?
The question could be rephrased to when are the shares officially delayed at my broker?
The morning of the 25th will see the sun rise along with your share count as, overnight, they tripled in number. Fear not that the stock price dropped to a 1/3 of what you remember as all graphs and charts shall be updated to the dawn of time with the new normal.
(At least, if you live on the east coast of the US and trade electronically. I'm not gonna get into the behind the scenes share propagation...)
 
Nice to see some change in this direction, however it should be noted that Bank Australia is miniscule (441 employees and A$131m in revenues last year according to Wikipedia) so impacts will be negligible. I lived in Australia most of my life and worked in the finance industry and hadn't heard of them.
Saved me from looking it up. Still good news anyway.
 
I've been thinking about Ashok's presentation a bit more. It really seems that they have ~solved crashes, at least causing crashes. Both in FSD and in humanpilot. It took a combination of a very good perception stack, an occupancy grid with flow, a neural network to evaluate possible poses, a search function and the rest of the software 1.0 stack, electric motors etc. The end result might be a reduction in the number of self caused accidents by a magnitude.

So let's assume this is true. What happens if there is an ADAS feature that reduces the number of accidents by 90%? Will not all other car makers be required to also have this feature? But they cannot do it... Will they be forced to buy it from Tesla? Let's say Tesla can sell HW3, cameras etc for $10k. If not, will Tesla's not become super popular? How much extra would you pay for a car that has 90% lower chance to kill you?

This is not even taking into account FSD and the massive leap that 10.69 seems to be.
What is the value of safety for your spouse and children? This is the demand driver that seems overlooked. FSD becomes worth more than the EV.

Then the issue surfaces of the true opportunity of robo taxis vs individual ownership. Life gets interesting🤔
 
A first look at Chuck's left turn on 10.69. He's just showing the screen in this one, but still pretty cool. Can't wait for one in the daytime with the drones.

He does a lot of other maneuvers as well. FSD still won't do a U turn. We have updated animation including a blue "wall" that shows how far it will creep into oncoming traffic.

 
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I’ve found the easiest - and most painful - way to stay humble is to focus on all the failures you’ve had as proselytizers either for purchasing a Tesla or for buying TSLA.

Successes in either of those goals are terrific, but why-oh-why have I been unable to convince that friend or relative to think clearly and do as we have done?

It is very, very humbling.
I suspect nearly all of us have non-Tesla investments that have worked out poorly. I have had a few. The worst I have had were ones on which I took ‘professional’ advice, every one of those lost money. Next was thinking that my PhD studies in financial markets, including a Nobel Prize winner-led seminar, meant I understood options. I lost a little more than 100% on that one.

Humility I deserve. TSLA and a couple of other winners were mostly dumb luck, even though I insist superior analysis was really responsible.
Whenever hubris threatens me I return my thought to the events of the prior paragraph.

We all deserve a little humility. None of us are really .omniscient.
 
Also, we have an answer to our previous discussion about release notes. FSD 10.69 release notes are not the same as 10.13.

10.69

10.13
 
I honestly don't know how they can be profitable when they are so unreliable. The amount of money they pocket is chump change compared to their operational cost. Seems to be an engineering problem and not a negligence of maintenance. Honestly how many people use these chargers before they break? 5 Charges? 20 charges?
I'd be surprised if any of them are profitable today. Even the SpC's are marginally profitable with a utilization rate that overall is probaby 10X larger. I'm basing this on
  • ~75% of BEV's on US roads are Tesla's
  • Tesla's are second only to diesels in miles driven per vehicle per British study
  • Because Tesla's road trip so well, it's assumed that as a percentage, more "away from home" miles than non-Tesla's
Some are incorporating Powerwalls to offset demand charges which also contribute to reduced power at times of high demand with SpC's also do.
EA buys chargers from 4 different vendors so they likely have to deal with different support networks and parts for the various charging units. I haven’t seen the ones in the above tweet for example. Tesla’s in-house expertise here is a big advantage for reliability. When EAs chargers have reliability problems, they can’t just fix the problem at the source.
EA has changed vendors as reliability dictates but the fatal flaw with any third party charging network is the cluster of various software's. The issue you bring up has always been a red flag to me that once the funds are gone, who's responsible for maintenance? IMO, if Tesla is squeezing out a 10% profit with a significantly higher utilization rate, along with an 80% lower install cost per portal, and a higher rate per kWh, I find it impossible for EA to ever self fund.
But the single source ecosystem of Tesla's network, certainly gives Tesla an edge in all aspects of running a viable charging infrastructure. Trying to design a language protocol that works flawlessly with 20 different software vendors would seem problematic, but I am not a software engineer so maybe not the problem I think it is. But, one of the biggest complaints I read about is dealing with the payment component, along with problematic screens. They are either washed out, non-functioning, or tempermental. The plug-n-charge roll-out would eliminate a lot of that but even it is quirky.
This is gonna sound crazy but they should just ban public chargers and the whole apparatus as it is since the companies taking the subsidies for public chargers do jack about maintaining them. There's no sense wasting money and time to put a thing in and it doesn't work, just sits there pissing everyone off. It leads to a crap experience for those very important adopters and it wastes massive resources and real estate. Instead they should just take all those subsidies and contract Tesla to build it out and maintain it. Eventually the state and local could take it over or hell just let Tesla keep doing what they do best.
Can't disagree to some extent but as much as we see the Tesla SpC's as the gold standard, competition is a net positive. However, if Tesla successfully can open up the SpC Network, I would expect the already underutilized third party infrastructure to whither away organically.
Recently, Texas had an open bid to build out some of its charging infrastructure which exposed the huge advantage that Tesla has over the third party vendors with an 80% cheaper cost per portal. For whatever reason, Texas decided to ignore Tesla's bid and went with the more expensive bids which is bizarre but not unexpected.

It was a brilliant move by Tesla to make the chargers super dumb and put all the smarts in the car. I don't understand why EA is having such a hard time keeping their systems working. Terrible software seems like a culprit.
As mentioned above, it's like coming up with a language that is understandable to a multitude of cultures, without room for misinterpretation. I expected Tesla to have some similar niggles when they opened up the European network to non-Tesla's but it seems that they avoided that entire fiasco but making the communications/payment system entirely app based. Typical Tesla brilliance that seems to evade the competition.
I’m sure the non-Tesla world will be a s💩t show.

Ford, GM, etc should be lobbying and working hard to ensure these networks are reliable. This whole story is playing out more and more into Tesla’s hands. It only takes 1-2 stops at unreliable chargers to spoil a trip. Imagine getting towed for a dead battery, your car gets dropped off the back of the tow truck, you plug in and that charger is dead too. Or the situation where your 12v system is too dead to start the fast charger.

Once non-Tesla support on the Supercharger networks roll out, people are going to gravitate towards it whether they want to or not. They will hit one too many bad EA or chargers and switch. You’ll roll up to a Supercharger and there will be a Mach E. The driver will bitch about how they hate Tesla and Elon but they have the only reliable chargers. A year later you’ll see them driving around in a Model Y…
From where we stand, it seems like a no brainer for any new entry into the BEV field to partner up with Tesla like Aptera is doing. How big of an advantage would Honda, Suburu, Toyota have if their initial entry into BEV's was part of the SpC Network. They would instantaneously leapfrog everyone else and struggle to meet demand long after the chip/battery shortages are alleviated. Now that Tesla is opening it up, it's not as big of an advantage as long as the adapter allows full power.
 
I've been thinking about Ashok's presentation a bit more. It really seems that they have ~solved crashes, at least causing crashes. Both in FSD and in humanpilot. It took a combination of a very good perception stack, an occupancy grid with flow, a neural network to evaluate possible poses, a search function and the rest of the software 1.0 stack, electric motors etc. The end result might be a reduction in the number of self caused accidents by a magnitude.

So let's assume this is true. What happens if there is an ADAS feature that reduces the number of accidents by 90%? Will not all other car makers be required to also have this feature? But they cannot do it... Will they be forced to buy it from Tesla? Let's say Tesla can sell HW3, cameras etc for $10k. If not, will Tesla's not become super popular? How much extra would you pay for a car that has 90% lower chance to kill you?

This is not even taking into account FSD and the massive leap that 10.69 seems to be.
Yep, that simulation of a driver not holding the steering wheel while applying full throttle is super compelling. The car is seemingly incapable of hitting anything due to the systems ability to so quickly and confidently identify objects (10ms) and route a safe path accordingly.

The reverse accident is now something to work on ;)
 
didn’t the P85D with introduction of the extra motor have improved efficiency?
IIRC the initial improved efficiency was due the front motor having slightly taller gearing to allow for it to be in an more efficient RPM range at highway cruising speed, where it was the primary motor.

The next efficiency step was in Raven, where the front motors were changed from induction to SRPM,
 
It kind of ticks me off. I'm speaking in regards to the global ev movement and these bum chargers really sour the experience. I can't imagine it being a positive promoter for the adoption of ev's, you know what I mean?
The single reason I cannot currently recommend any non-Tesla EV to anyone in the US.
 
Also, we have an answer to our previous discussion about release notes. FSD 10.69 release notes are not the same as 10.13.

Some of the feature bullets have carried over from 10.13, but it seems like 10.69 now incorporates the voxel occupancy model that Ashok presented on. And it seems to have made a huge difference in performance. Happy to be wrong in this case.
 
I suspect nearly all of us have non-Tesla investments that have worked out poorly. I have had a few. The worst I have had were ones on which I took ‘professional’ advice, every one of those lost money. Next was thinking that my PhD studies in financial markets, including a Nobel Prize winner-led seminar, meant I understood options. I lost a little more than 100% on that one.

Humility I deserve. TSLA and a couple of other winners were mostly dumb luck, even though I insist superior analysis was really responsible.
Whenever hubris threatens me I return my thought to the events of the prior paragraph.

We all deserve a little humility. None of us are really .omniscient.
For me, (dumb luck)^3.
1) Bought in summer '19
2) Intense margin-buying during '20 run-up
3) Retired margin Dec '20.
 
So let's assume this is true.

It's not though (the claim of they can build a car that never crashes. Even with a 1000% perfect driving AI you can't "eliminate" all accidents, because of physics.

There will still be things the vehicle (nor a human in it) simply can not perceive in time to stop for/avoid it.

Elon himself has said, multiple times, there's no such thing as perfect in the real world.



Your own suggestion is far more possible of course- certainly a good system will greatly REDUCE crashes- but "never" isn't a reasonable claim for all the other good stuff in his presentation.


What happens if there is an ADAS feature that reduces the number of accidents by 90%? Will not all other car makers be required to also have this feature? But they cannot do it... Will they be forced to buy it from Tesla?

No.

We covered this, geez, seems like maybe just a few weeks ago?

It took decades for much simpler, cheaper, and more obviously-safer systems like seatbelts and ABS to become mandatory (and none of those required what is sure to be a years-long process just to be legal to use at all in many areas). Regulators move very very slowly on requiring new things.

So I mean I guess if nobody else has improved safety by 2050 this might be worth thinking about, otherwise not so much.
 
I believe it was the S85D aka Model S AWD with 85 kwh pack.



"The AWD version adds highway range: The Model S '85D' version with an 85-kilowatt-hour battery pack has 295 miles of range (at 65 mph), the 'P85D' has 275 miles"
This is when we ordered our S85D, purely dumb luck. We had scheduled a test drive weeks in advance and surprised when we arrived at the long lines, it was the first day these could be ordered and many educated Tesla owners (we were not one of those at that time) had delayed ordering to get the Autopilot.

Still enjoying our S85D 7 years later (delivery time was long back then too).
 
What is the value of safety for your spouse and children? This is the demand driver that seems overlooked. FSD becomes worth more than the EV.

Then the issue surfaces of the true opportunity of robo taxis vs individual ownership. Life gets interesting🤔
It is only a demand driver for well informed buyers. The percentage of car buyers that is well informed about FSD is fairly low and there is a significant FUD campaign ongoing to keep it that way or push it even lower. With the release of the new version you can expect the FUD to be dialed up further, even beyond 11.

If you think Dan O'Clown videos were ugly attacks, you ain't seen nothin' yet!