Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[OrthoSurg]

And some of those whispers were to SEC in regards to corruption at Moody’s In the form of a 78 page submission from a retired employee.

MOODY'S ANALYST BREAKS SILENCE: Says Ratings Agency Rotten To Core With Conflicts

www.businessinsider.com

I guess that’s as simple as not biting the hand that is feeding you.

We have seen over the years how MSM treated and still treating Tesla since they don’t spend any ad revenues. Same thing with direct consumer sales in certain states where Tesla has not used standard lobbying. Same thing with rating agencies now. Elon’s philosophy is to make the most compelling product and customers will buy it because it’s their interest to buy the best option. On the other hand legacy companies and corporate America has used the standard approach which is Pay us and we will talk about your product even if it is inferior. Unfortunately, consumers who are making a purchase decision often go with the product they have seen showcased the most and more often than not do an uninformed decision.

Corporate established institutional corruption

 

[jeewee3000]

Already said this once in this thread, but it's worth repeating. This particular incident was not a failure of perception. If anything, it's a validation of how well the perception network is doing and how much work driving policy needs. Here's a screenshot of the point at which the heavily occluded stop sign was recognized by FSD and added to the visualization:

View attachment 848831

By my estimation, it had almost 2 seconds, or 66 feet to stop after recognizing the sign. I think this particular failure was caused by a braking latency bug introduced in 10.69.1, and rectified in 10.69.1.1.

The occluded-stop-sign discussion is not very relevant for the path to level 5 autonomy.

It's a perfect example of observers setting too high of a standard for autonomous vehicles.

Us mortals/humans drivers are not expected to respond to occluded road markings/signs/traffic lights. Traffic laws in developed countries include this "edge-case" and don't fault the driver for not noticing a difficult to see sign.

For example in the Belgian "Verkeersreglement" ("road traffic regulations"-legislation) article 5 states: (deepl.com translation)
Road users shall observe traffic lights, traffic signs and road markings when they are regular to form, adequately visible and installed in accordance with the requirements of these Regulations.

So if I were to run that stop sign, I wouldn't be in trouble since the traffic cops/judge would also see the sign is occluded most of the time and therefore not applicable. Of course I would then have to act as if there was no sign on that spot, meaning I would have to follow the other rules of the road which in this case would be to approach the intersection carefully and to give way to cars coming from the right.

FSD should be allowed the same lenience as human drivers. I'm confident that FSD would've dealt correctly with the intersection if Chuck didn't brake and if there were vehicles coming from other directions on the intersection. It wouldn't have created any problem/accident/danger by ignoring the Stop-sign.

On a higher level: I notice this tendency a lot with FSD video reactions. Arm-chair drivers are analysing the videos and are criticising FSD for certain situations in which an average human driver would've faulted as well.

I'm not saying FSD is autonomous already, just that it should be criticized where it matters. Of course TSLAQ/Dan O Dowd/the media can have a field day with this so this behaviour will not stop, but then again that is an opportunity for me as a Tesla investor to accumulate more shares before the data proves FSD to be better than the average human and the stock price explodes.

 

[snellenr]

And some of those whispers were to SEC in regards to corruption at Moody’s In the form of a 78 page submission from a retired employee.

MOODY'S ANALYST BREAKS SILENCE: Says Ratings Agency Rotten To Core With Conflicts

www.businessinsider.com

That article is from 2011 - 11 years ago!

Is there anything comparable that is more recent?

 

[The Accountant]

Gary Black on Twitter: "@hiromichimizuno Everyone is giving Moody’s rating way too much importance. Quantitatively, $TSLA debt is already priced as if it’s investment grade. We always thought S&P would upgrade $TSLA first, and Moody’s would follow. So Moody’s made-up reason for being slow to upgrade isn’t very relevant." / Twitter

Tesla East Bay Club |Fremont| 🕊 on Twitter: "@garyblack00 @hiromichimizuno So… Kabuki Theatre Gary? https://t.co/nz4u7U8jUg" / Twitter​

​

R I C O L A !​

View attachment 849088​

I love it when a meme comes together...

Chairs!

What's this mumbo jumbo "Quantitatively, TSLA debt is already priced as if it's investment grade"? What debt . . .lol.
We're not talking about the debt pricing . . . . we're talking about the share pricing.
In my opinion, if TSLA gets Investment Grade (IG) status, then funds that can only invest in IG companies will now invest in TSLA thereby decreasing the daily float . . . . as these funds do not trade in and out of a stock often.

Gary states too much as if its FACT rather than Opinion. Inserting "imo" in some of his sentences would be helpful.

 

[Dreadnought]

Unfortunately the proper way of solving that particular behavior will never be solved using Teslas current architecture. A human deals with that by doing it wrong the first time and then remembering there is a stop sign there subsequent times. Tesla FSD has no memory like that. It approaches every intersection as if it were seeing it for the first time.

[...]

It wouldn’t be that hard for Tesla to add these memory hints to the low res map data it currently uses, and indeed these memory hints could easily be automatically generated from fleet data. Thinking about it, maybe Tesla is either already doing this, or has plan to add it in, and we may hear more about this during AI day #2 September 30th.

Tesla already talked about capabilities to extract map features from the car's internal model during first AI day. Roughly 90 minutes into the YouTube vid, they mention lane + lane connectivity recognition, for instance.
The decision whether a discrepancy between map and live observation is due to a map error (thus leading to a map ( = shared memory) update) or temporary updating local memory) or individual perception error (potentially modifying driving strategy) is a solved task, at least for the map maintenance part. Google and others automatically update maps in a similar way.

As others already noted, adherence to driving laws is actually not required for a fully autonomous system that is good enough at avoiding collisions. That may be hard to imagine for some, which is why others created vids like this:

 

[Usain]

I'm confident that FSD would've dealt correctly with the intersection if Chuck didn't brake and if there were vehicles coming from other directions on the intersection.

I'm not confident of that at all. Chuck was able to stop just before reaching a dangerous position in the intersection. But there is no indication that FSD would have done the same.

This was a situation where FSD did a lot worse than a human. A human would have noticed the stop sign sooner. A human would anticipate that a stop sign would be there at that kind of intersection. And, a human driver familiar with the area would already know that the stop sign was there. So, a human might have a little trouble the first time, but would get it right the next 500 times.

Also, as soon as a human realizes he has run a stop sign, he takes corrective action. FSD might have taken some corrective action, but we know for a fact that in this case, the human driver reacted faster and safer.

Traffic laws in developed countries include this "edge-case" and don't fault the driver for not noticing a difficult to see sign.

That's all true, but this goes beyond who is at fault. Elon has said that the goal is for FSD to be 10x safer than a human. It might already be there as long as FSD is level 2, with your hands on the wheel. But FSD clearly is not ready take humans out of the driver's seat.

Of course TSLAQ/Dan O Dowd/the media can have a field day with this so this behaviour will not stop, but then again that is an opportunity for me as a Tesla investor to accumulate more shares before the data proves FSD to be better than the average human and the stock price explodes.

I'm in total agreement here. FSD might very well be ready for wide beta at level 2. And maybe that will trigger some revenue recognition. That would be a great achievement. It's not time for the trumpets to sound just yet, but it sure looks like it's getting there.

 

[Discoducky]

Super stoked to get 10.69.1.1 (or whatever ends up going wide) after watching numerous videos and now Dirty Tesla's latest is the icing. I'm hopeful that my one UPL which it has never done safely (it is a doozy as it is steep, can't see oncoming traffic (obtuse/oblique angles with trees and hills blocking the curvy road) until the nose of the car is close to the lane and cars typically go 65MPH) will now work and my 4 difficult round-a-bouts will be much smoother.

Absolutely amazing that FSD is now $15k and if this build can seemingly drive my routes without intervention, it will be worth it to me.

Also, I plan to resurrect the mannequin and do some static and dynamic movement testing.

 

[Krugerrand]

What's this mumbo jumbo "Quantitatively, TSLA debt is already priced as if it's investment grade"? What debt . . .lol.
We're not talking about the debt pricing . . . . we're talking about the share pricing.
In my opinion, if TSLA gets Investment Grade (IG) status, then funds that can only invest in IG companies will now invest in TSLA thereby decreasing the daily float . . . . as these funds do not trade in and out of a stock often.

Gary states too much as if its FACT rather than Opinion. Inserting "imo" in some of his sentences would be helpful.

View attachment 849117

Gary is just parroting the WallStreet narrative. It’s always been and continues to be just a bunch of poo-poo.

 

[unk45]

Not a rumor: Brookfield at Austin is real.

• Tesla Energy, Brookfield and Dacra Announce the Development of Large-Scale Sustainable Neighborhood in Austin, Texas – Brookfield Asset Management Inc
• Tesla Energy, Brookfield, & Dacra Are Developing A Large-Scale Sustainable Neighborhood In Austin, Texas | CleanTechnica
• Tesla partners with Brookfield, Dacra to establish first all-solar ... https://communityimpact.com › austin › 2021/07/09

Cheers!

Just for a bit of history. Brookfield is Canadian, and was formed in 1899 to establish public tramways in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. The Brazilian name for light rail is ‘bonde’ after their preferred financing method. It spawned the Rio de Janeiro electric company (Light) thus fomenting the bizarre municipal voltage of 127v. Soon they generated vast amounts of capital that ended out much later spawning Brookfield too.

FWIW, I have a few long-term friends, and spouse’s schoolmates who are now in senior management. I met my spouse when leading a bond syndication for them.

While admitting my bias Brookfield promotes electrification and sustainability in their projects. In their buildings they include EV charging whether the present fleets justify that.

Brookfield is unusual and very progressive.

 

[ZachF]

Europeans don't have to deal with PG&E who got paid to modernize their power lines and just gave all that money to shareholders. Then when they got sued for not maintaining power lines, they kept giving money to shareholders and shafted the customers.

This is the peril of government sanctioned monopoly.

PG&E is a special kind of terrible, but a huge chunk of the blame belongs to California’s toxic NIMBYism. It basically takes an act of god to get any new electricity supply past California’s bloated bureaucrat-activist-lawyer industrial complex. Because of this, California with 38 million people generates less electricity than Alabama + Mississippi, two of the poorest states in the country which combined have less than 1/4 of California’s population. California then imports every watt it can from every surrounding state (~1/3rd of total) and charges the highest prices in the country with probably the least reliable service on top of it.

This is why even with a bunch of state incentives and great renewable resources, Texas is taking laps around California in wind and now solar. Next year, at the current rate of growth, Texas will probably produce more wind & solar electricity than California produces electricity of all types, and Texas has less people!

 

[MABMAB]

10.69.1! Happy Labor Day!

Bummer. Took a test ride, noted nothing improved for things that bug me. Need to do UPL again, that might have been better. Back roads were worse.

 

[Singuy]

Bummer. Took a test ride, noted nothing improved for things that bug me. Need to do UPL again, that might have been better. Back roads were worse.

did you get 10.69.1.1? Apparently according to most youtubers 10.69 was great, 10.69.1 sucked and went backwards. 10.69.1.1 reverted back to 10.69 goodness.

 

[Singuy]

Autos stock falling on the EU stock exchange due to gas halt.

Tesla fell 0.2% on the frankfurt exchange.
Daimler fell 4.4%
Volkswagen fell 1.2%

European markets close lower as Russia halts gas flows; autos stocks fall nearly 5%

European markets fell sharply as investors ponder economic risks in the region. U.S. markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday.

www.cnbc.com

 

[elasalle]

Are China monthly deliveries always reported on the 8th(IIRC this is the date it is supposed to come out)? Or can they be expected sooner?

 

[growler23]

Not a bad watch.

1. Automation was the culprit for decreasing manufacture jobs, not NAFTA or China

2. Line workers are afraid their jobs may disappear due to the EV transition, which is affecting moral.

3. Tesla leading the way

4. Reduction of parts by 30% going to EVs

5. Estimated 50% of jobs supporting ICE may disappear

I think a major job transition is also needed as part of the renewables transition. It is already the case that we need an army (many thousands? Tens or hundreds of thousands?) of electricians simply installing home and public chargers. Apparently that is sucking up most of the time of electricians around here already.
Electricians are the most obvious but I am guessing there are a host of other new jobs that also cannot be automated right now that will appear. I am well aware these jobs may not appear immediately enough or in the same location as the ones that were lost... just expecting there will be an upside to employment as well as the downside being discussed.

 

[elasalle]

Given that Moody's fumbled, S&P has an opportunity to shine(& do the right thing) ... else @The Accountant will add S&P in the credit rating comparison tables with TSLA

https://twitter.com/x/status/1566807670610202624

 

[Incredulocious]

PG&E is a special kind of terrible, but a huge chunk of the blame belongs to California’s toxic NIMBYism. It basically takes an act of god to get any new electricity supply past California’s bloated bureaucrat-activist-lawyer industrial complex. Because of this, California with 38 million people generates less electricity than Alabama + Mississippi, two of the poorest states in the country which combined have less than 1/4 of California’s population. California then imports every watt it can from every surrounding state (~1/3rd of total) and charges the highest prices in the country with probably the least reliable service on top of it.

This is why even with a bunch of state incentives and great renewable resources, Texas is taking laps around California in wind and now solar. Next year, at the current rate of growth, Texas will probably produce more wind & solar electricity than California produces electricity of all types, and Texas has less people!

from Electricity generation by U.S. state

 

[Blue horseshoe]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1566760110076170241

Regarding s&p and moodys credit upgrades this person posted S&Ps note on Tesla and a future upgrade.

At the bottom it says, "we will consider upgrading the company to investment-grade later in 2022 if it maintains its trajectory and sustains automotive EBITDA margins of over 18% (excluding regulatory credits) while ramping up production at its Berlin and Austin production facilities.

Before upgrading Tesla, we would also require it to maintain strong liquidity and generate free operating cash flow to sales of over 2% on a sustainable basis."

The note also mentions they believe cashflow in 2022 would be lower than 2021 due to cap ex, so Teslas outperformance in that regard will surprise them positively.

 

[Curt Renz]

The Electric Viking - hour ago:

 

[SmokyPeat]

I just read that Elon is going to open a stand up gig for Chris Rock! I think he'll do great- should be a much more positive environment than when he hosted SNL. Especially if Will Smith is smart enough to stay home.