Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

But if you intervene, how do you know FSD didn't work? That's my point.

How close do you need to get to the mannequin child before you realize you’re going to hit it? Close but not that close.

Definitely in watching some of the YTs, I can tell the driver intervenes prematurely, but there are others that intervene appropriately.

It’s a situation where you probably have to experience it to know and understand. From Tesla’s standpoint, they get the video and other car data to help them determine.

 

[jerry33]

How close do you need to get to the mannequin child before you realize you’re going to hit it? Close but not that close.

Definitely in watching some of the YTs, I can tell the driver intervenes prematurely, but there are others that intervene appropriately.

It’s a situation where you probably have to experience it to know and understand. From Tesla’s standpoint, they get the video and other car data to help them determine.

My guess is that unless the robotaxi has no windows, people won't use it unless it drives comfortably--doesn't go 30 mph on residential streets with parked cars, leaves plenty of room, etc. I use Chill mode, and FSD is just way too aggressive in most non-highway situations. I disengage every time I have to stop and don't reengage until it's up to speed. Perhaps there should be a DMD mode (Driving Miss Daisy). After all, there is a Mad Max mode.

 

[elasalle]

My guess is that unless the robotaxi has no windows, people won't use it unless it drives comfortably--doesn't go 30 mph on residential streets with parked cars, leaves plenty of room, etc. I use Chill mode, and FSD is just way too aggressive in most non-highway situations. I disengage every time I have to stop and don't reengage until it's up to speed. Perhaps there should be a DMD mode (Driving Miss Daisy). After all, there is a Mad Max mode.

Imagine being put in a barrel and getting rolled - that is what RoboTaxi without windows will feel like
Adding camera 360% views might help, but that will be an extra cost.

 

[lascavarian]

True dat. I'm talking about instances where it doesn't stop or accelerate as quickly as you might. Intervening before it "might" screw up.

As I haven't been in the driver's seat, I have no experience, but in most of the videos I've seen recently, the driver frequently intervenes prior to one truly being necessary.

OK, I'll shut up now and watch the SP rise...

Yep, I like the closing action.

Your question is a good one. I don’t intervene before the “screw up”. I let it be starting to clearly screw up before correcting.

Now, it is the case that the car is running software that generally does not learn in the field. Learning happens with Dojo in the mothership and then a smarter release passes QA and comes out to the field.

Beta testers in the field test it again. Generally it will not do dangerous things but it could so full attention is job one!

Although each release is mostly consistent, driving is a highly variable activity so small differences matter particularly at intersections in traffic and one day a turn is fine but not the next. Each correction helps a little for next release as I look at it.

I tend to view the reporting of lack of interventions as interesting but mostly just chance. Interesting for a particular route but meaningless on a drive I might take. Only the mothership has the global data appropriate for aggregate progress achievement.

What I look for is the degree of “human-like” feel In its actions. This release, like all so far, is a reflection of a neural net evolving toward human behavior. This release feels more human-like to me. Just as many interventions for now, but a better feel to the handling of the drive space IMO. Something very good has happened that I expect to be more obvious in subsequent releases. Just my comments

 

[Bet TSLA]

Tomorrow is the last day to put in your claim for some of the money that Elon paid to the SEC to get them off his back over his "funding secured" tweet.

My post with details on eligibility and the claim process is #344,744

I submitted my claim online. Not a great experience. Once successfully submitted they give you a claim number. But they don't actually e-mail or text you confirmation, so there's really no evidence you submitted a claim. I eventually called them and they admitted they had my claim. I don't expect much from this.

Anybody else here file a claim?

 

[SO16]

Tomorrow is the last day to put in your claim for some of the money that Elon paid to the SEC to get them off his back over his "funding secured" tweet.

My post with details on eligibility and the claim process is #344,744

I submitted my claim online. Not a great experience. Once successfully submitted they give you a claim number. But they don't actually e-mail or text you confirmation, so there's really no evidence you submitted a claim. I eventually called them and they admitted they had my claim. I don't expect much from this.

Anybody else here file a claim?

I did. Only did it so its less money for the ones with bad intentions.

I saved the confirmation page.

 

[2daMoon]

The hits keep coming in as another analyst vacated the "Underperform" ranks to bolster the "Hold" column.

So, there are three left in "Sell" column. Let's see, that would be GJ, Toilet Boy, and who else?

I can't recall the last time I received two email updates to "Changes in Analyst Ratings" so close together. Bullish?

 

[StealthP3D]

I really wish this were not so. However, many regions largely remain as they were before the industrial revolution, often with a handful of modern accoutrements but nothing much more. Thus, the BEV adopters will not junk their ICE, they'll just export the pollutants to poor people. It will be as it has ever been.

Again, I wish it were not so.

The transition to EV's happens at the production side of things, we always knew that newly minted ICE cars were not going to be crushed, the key metric is the number of EV's displacing new ICE cars. And regardless of the ability to export good condition ICE cars for sale elsewhere, new EV's are still displacing ICE car sales. Aircraft routinely have a life of 50 years and more, cost hundreds of thousands of dollars to many millions, and are repeatedly rebuilt so that is not a good example of what we can expect in the auto market. The transition to EV's will be economically compelling enough that the value of ICE cars will still plummet because it costs significant amounts of money to export cars and the real junkers will be junked, not exported. Legacy manufacturers will over-produce during the transition and further impact values to the downside.

I think you will be surprised how the glut of used ICE cars impacts pricing relative to the price of EV's which will be in high demand for as far as the eye can see. Let's just say well used ICE cars will become quite affordable to those who are least able to afford the gasoline which will be becoming increasingly a specialty product. The speed and severity of how dramatically this comes true will be largely dependent upon how many EV's can be made, and how soon. I think the biggest variable in this will be how quickly legacy can ramp EV volumes. It's entirely possible that many legacy automakers could struggle economically for a number of years even as they ramp EV's to high volume, only to finally start ceding EV market share to Tesla's ever increasing (and more efficient) production. Legacy auto EV's may be able to compete against ICE cars only to fail to be price competitive enough with Tesla to hold their market share. If so, they would go bankrupt due to lack of volume efficiencies relative to Tesla, as their EV production numbers are forced to decline.

The part of me that cares about the climate and the health of the air does not care so much about the last 10% of ice cars that will still be in use in various backwaters for many decades to come. What matters most is that the new cars lose their tailpipes ASAP. Every new ICE car that is NOT manufactured is a win.

 

[Ogre]

Imagine being put in a barrel and getting rolled - that is what RoboTaxi without windows will feel like
Adding camera 360% views might help, but that will be an extra cost.

Glass isn't that expensive. Particularly if you don't need to make windows that roll down. So long as there is good climate control you can get by without windows that open.

Trying to fake reality is likely more expensive than the actual windows.

 

[ZeApelido]

I was listening to @ValueAnalyst's Twitter Spaces about FSD tech, and decided to participate.

Starting at 2hr 50min

For the first time there is some evidence I am not a robot.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570896892170743809

Edit: btw this is why I avoid such things generally, does this mean now I have to answer this question?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570899223180345344

 

[Discoducky]

I was listening to @ValueAnalyst's Twitter Spaces about FSD tech, and decided to participate.

For the first time there is some evidence I am not a robot.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570896892170743809

Edit: btw this is why I avoid such things generally, does this mean now I have to answer this question?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570899223180345344

Ok, throw us a bone, it is nearly 4 hours long, when is your part?

 

[JRP3]

Particularly if you don't need to make windows that roll down. So long as there is good climate control you can get by without windows that open.

How will you get your food at the drive through without opening windows?

 

[Paul_SF]

How will you get your food at the drive through without opening windows?

Sliding doors?

 

[StealthP3D]

Yes they will. They already do. Embargoed poor countries already do that. Singapore exports used cars en masse (they don't let >5 year old cars there for the most part. Japan exports used cars throughout the RHD markets just as does Singapore. LHD is different, but has far broader destruction of used cars.

Luckily, those of you who think otherwise for both aircraft and motor vehicles haven't had to live in the consuming countries. Comparing C152 to ancient operating commercial aircraft, like even the Boeing 747 SPs still in commercial service in Iran recently.

The Boeing 747 didn't even enter service until 1970, and most of them are a lot newer than that, so hardly ancient. I started flying before the 747 even existed and I doubt you would consider me ancient.

 

[RationalOptimist]

Tomorrow is the last day to put in your claim for some of the money that Elon paid to the SEC to get them off his back over his "funding secured" tweet.

My post with details on eligibility and the claim process is #344,744

I submitted my claim online. Not a great experience. Once successfully submitted they give you a claim number. But they don't actually e-mail or text you confirmation, so there's really no evidence you submitted a claim. I eventually called them and they admitted they had my claim. I don't expect much from this.

Anybody else here file a claim?

Thanks for your help here. Do you happen to know if options are also covered?

 

[woodisgood]

Edit: btw this is why I avoid such things generally, does this mean now I have to answer this question?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570899223180345344

Yes, yes it does.

 

[StealthP3D]

As for TSLA specific, the strength this week has been astounding. But I gravitation of 300/share, I feel it's mostly options related. And I wouldn't be surprised at all to see TSLA underperform significantly next week.

Well I wouldn't be surprised if TSLA under-performed next week either, or if it rallied strongly. or if it stayed flat. Because anyone who tells you they know what TSLA will or will not do next week is either deluding themselves or they have unreleased insider information. Because no one knows what a stock will do next week.

And derivatives like options always affect the primary instrument, especially when derivatives are so active, as they commonly are with TSLA.

 

[Ogre]

How will you get your food at the drive through without opening windows?

Do people go to drive throughs in Ubers? I thought you just used Uber Eats for that sort of thing.

It's a good point... weirdly.

 

[AudubonB]

How will you get your food at the drive through without opening windows?

FedEx

 

[Drumheller]

Do people go to drive throughs in Ubers? I thought you just used Uber Eats for that sort of thing.

It's a good point... weirdly.

Drunk people like late night drive thrus