Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BioSehnsucht]

Yeah, the hands-free part is my personal criteria for "Done", not necessary for satisfying the definition of what FSD is for currently shipping cars.

Right now I see 4 steps remaining.

1. Wide release—You buy it and get "Level 2 FSD" same day (This is what you are talking about and should satisfy the accountants)
2. Hands free release — Maybe at the same time, maybe months or even a year or more later.
3. Summon/ send you car to an arbitrary location
4. Robotaxi network

Maybe that 3rd step is part of Robotaxi. Seems to me it would be possible and quite useful before full robotaxi release is though.

Handsfree release is what I bought the FSD upgrade for my EAP car for - I want level 4/5 highway autosteer, the rest is just bonus (and not worth in total 15k to me, if I had to buy at full price again).

While the "technical" challenges for Robotaxi vs summon anywhere are nearly identical (Robotaxi just adding the need to give access to other people and bill them through the app, and all the backend infrastructure to support that), realistically there'll be a lot they need to implement and it might even be a local rollout over time, versus being able to give summon anywhere to anyone in a supported major region (i.e. likely to come to NA before EU, but otherwise possible most/all of NA or EU at the same time).

Robotaxi will need lots of non-software support to implement sanely, such as insurance, cleaning up vehicles that get dirty, etc.

So I wouldn't be surprised if we saw summon-anywhere become a thing before the actual Robotaxi functionality is released, simply because they could then pivot from concentrating on FSD development to infrastructure / support development.

 

[Knightshade]

Yeah, the hands-free part is my personal criteria for "Done", not necessary for satisfying the definition of what FSD is for currently shipping cars.

Right now I see 4 steps remaining.

1. Wide release—You buy it and get "Level 2 FSD" same day (This is what you are talking about and should satisfy the accountants)
2. Hands free release — Maybe at the same time, maybe months or even a year or more later.
3. Summon/ send you car to an arbitrary location
4. Robotaxi network

Maybe that 3rd step is part of Robotaxi. Seems to me it would be possible and quite useful before full robotaxi release is though.

2 is a wide array of possible things.

GM has offered hands free ADAS for years now. It's still L2 though and overall far less capable than even autopilot let alone FSD.

Some folks here don't seem to REALLY mean "hands free" they mean "attention free" which is vastly different.

Nobody sells attention free yet, except Mercedes- and its offering is exceedingly limited (basically only in highway traffic under 37 mph)

(and even attention free has multiple levels... the Mercedes version is "you do not have to pay attention to the road, but you DO have to take over within 10 seconds if the car asks".... what the original FSD buyers are expecting is "You can be asleep and never have to pay attention to anything if you want" because that's what they were originally promised)

 

[phoggy123]

I have been thinking alot about batteries and specifically the 4680. I think Jerome's statement on them having sufficient batteries for their current level of production says more than what meets the eye. I know we all want to ramp 4680 as fast as possible, but I think everything is on track.

In my mind Tesla has said repeatedly they will buy as many batteries as their suppliers will give them. This allows them much needed slack to get to 1.5M+ run rate while working on the ramp and iteration of the 4680 line. I think their bottlenecks are elsewhere... and as we know a seat motor can stop the assembly line just as much as battery supply. So It makes sense that ATX is focusing on 2170 model Y while getting 4680 up to speed. They are putting plenty of 4680 model Y's out, but basically having people pay to beta test them...where does this sound familiar?

They will get the Semi truck line up and running in ATX as the 4680 lines in Texas starts to churn out batteries. I am thinking they will get to 1K Semi's in 2023 and ship 10K cyber trucks. All the while getting 4680 model y up to the same specs as the long range with sufficient capacity. I am actually thinking that they have shut down the long range model 3 line to retrofit it with rear castings. Once this is up and running they can move long range and performance over to rear castings and retro fit the other lines. They can ship RWD model 3's from China potentially.

Anyways I always marvel at the amount of my free time I think about Tesla Strategy...

 

[wipster]

What do you consider wide release? We are already at all cars in the US and Canada with safety score of 80% of higher (when 90% is considered normal/average) and that is with 10.69.2.2

I'll consider it wise release when your FSD enabled Tesla delivers itself to you... regardless of where you're at in the continental US.

 

[AudubonB]

Yeah but have you tried reading threads in "AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD" ?

All threads end up just with continuous snarky comments about Elon promising robotaxis years ago.

I want to tear my eyes out whenever I tried to read them.

I wouldn't wish forced reading upon my wost enemy.

Moi?

I am in concert with de Sade, und nichts mit Sacher-Masoch.

 

[ZachF]

TSLA is the only stock in the top 12 globally to be green over the last 30 days (and green by something like +5%):

View attachment 854826
(source)

I’m calling it:

Within a year Tesla will pass Amazon and Google. Amazon hopefully before the year ends.

 

[Nocturnal]

I spent the last 20 minutes cussing at the engineer who placed a small torx screw way high up on the Model 3 cabin air filter that I'm changing to get rid of the funky smell (this has been changed in newer models) and I come in to see this tweet. Ok, Tesla is back in my good graces. Clever.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572352903079403522

 

[SmokyPeat]

I’m calling it:

Within a year Tesla will pass Amazon and Google. Amazon hopefully before the year ends.

Amazon for sure. Google,..... might take a bit longer. Hope you're right, though.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I’m calling it:

Within a year Tesla will pass Amazon and Google. Amazon hopefully before the year ends.

I don't know about GOOG so soon, that seems a stretch. But AMZN very likely in 1H23.

I'm still of the opinion AMZN deserves their multiple simply on the 1/2 trillion dollars of annual revenue....and no clear desire or strategy to optimize earnings over growth.

Amazon is a beast. So huge it wouldn't be crazy to see $20B in earnings one of these random 2024 quarters.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

What time is the Fed rate announcement tomorrow, 2pm?

 

[MP3Mike]

What time is the Fed rate announcement tomorrow, 2pm?

Yep. 2 PM ET. (Followed by the press conference at 2:30PM.)

 

[Thekiwi]

I'm expecting quite a bit of China demand FUD over the next couple of weeks until we get official Q3 P/D numbers.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572189619680346112

For anyone that's been tracking these weekly numbers, it says we're up to about 44k through Sept 18th. I have no idea how closely these weekly numbers have translated to actual official monthly numbers by the CPCA. But let's say they're accurate. So to hit 100k for Sept, Tesla China would need to delivery roughly 56k in the last 12 days of Sept. Sounds like a stretch right?

Except for a couple caveats.

The first being that China just had a typhoon come through which is obviously going to delay deliveries of cars that are already at delivery centers. This affected the week that that tweet is covering.

The 2nd caveat is that as Tesla does in the United States, for the first couple of weeks of the last month of the quarter, cars are still being sent farther out distances so that they can be delivered in time for the end of the quarter. As in California, delivers happen in the final two weeks of the quarter. Which is why at the end of every quarter in the US, a disproportional % of deliveries happen in the US compared to the first 2 and a half months.

I believe it's something like 25-30% of all deliveries for the US happen in the final 2 weeks of the quarter. And that's because you're still getting cars delivered on the east coast and middle America as well as the west coast, all at the same time. This same dynamic will likely play out in China. But of course we won't know for sure until Oct 2nd, so enjoy the China demand FUD for the next 2 weeks

The 3rd caveat is that production was/is still ramping. So by that logic, there's a trailing data factor. Meaning there's probably a 2-3 week delay between increases in production levels week over week and when it shows up in deliveries week over week. This trailing data factor "gap" should be closed, at least mostly closed, in the final two weeks of deliveries since production will only be going to close delivery centers to make sure they're delivered before the end of the quarter.

There's also one other caveat that there was a RoRo ship that loaded up and departed last week, but I have yet to find anything actually concrete on this.

One peice adding some uncertainty is that it is not clear when the model 3 line upgrade was complete (it was sometime during the 2 & 3rd week of September IIRC), which would have a big impact on China Model 3 deliveries this month.

 

[ZachF]

I don't know about GOOG so soon, that seems a stretch. But AMZN very likely in 1H23.

I'm still of the opinion AMZN deserves their multiple simply on the 1/2 trillion dollars of annual revenue....and no clear desire or strategy to optimize earnings over growth.

Amazon is a beast. So huge it wouldn't be crazy to see $20B in earnings one of these random 2024 quarters.

Amazon has high revenue because it’s a retailer. The ratio of value added to revenue (and thus profit potential) for retailers is low.

 

[MartinAustin]

In the USA, Tesla has flooded its new car inventory with an end-of-quarter bevvy of S, 3, X and Y. Get 'em while they're hot off the casting machine! https://ev-cpo.com/

 

[ggr]

I think Jerome's statement on them having sufficient batteries

Martin Viecha. Jerome left Tesla ages ago. (Might come back once Semi is in mass production?)

 

[Singuy]

In the USA, Tesla has flooded its new car inventory with an end-of-quarter bevvy of S, 3, X and Y. Get 'em while they're hot off the casting machine! https://ev-cpo.com/

I am seeing mostly used cars. There are like 200 total new cars.

 

[Ogre]

I am seeing mostly used cars. There are like 200 total new cars.

They purge inventory of floor models at the end of the quarter pretty regularly so nothing to see here.

 

[Ogre]

Some folks here don't seem to REALLY mean "hands free" they mean "attention free" which is vastly different.

I strongly suspect most people would be fine with hands free. Spending 3+ hours in the drivers seat ensuring I dink the steering wheel every 20 seconds or so is super annoying. I'd be fine with the camera narcing on me when I am not attentive enough.

 

[DarthPierce]

I strongly suspect most people would be fine with hands free. Spending 3+ hours in the drivers seat ensuring I dink the steering wheel every 20 seconds or so is super annoying. I'd be fine with the camera narcing on me when I am not attentive enough.

If you just rest your hand on one side (let the wheel take the weight of your hand) you don't need to "dink". My hand needs something to rest on anyway.

That said I look forward to attention free eventually. For years I've been saying my daughter won't ever 'need' to learn to drive. She's 7, so Elon has 9 years left to solve this.

 

[StealthP3D]

Well, I think it's rational to say that something can both be a hit piece and that Tesla might have made mistakes in this area. Has it been fixed? I sure hope so. (and obv due process needs to be followed)

To be clear, you didn't say "Tesla might have made mistakes in this area", you said. "Tesla HR, management, and yes Elon have also clearly dropped the ball...".

I'm not willing to jump to that conclusion based on an article full of innuendo. What we do have a record of is that Tesla has clear and strict policies against this kind of behavior, and I haven't seen a shred of evidence that Elon or Tesla's Human Resources Department doesn't take this kind of allegation very seriously. Perpetrators who commit this kind of harassment tend to not do it in front of other witnesses and what actually happened is not always clear. It goes on in every workplace and, yes, Tesla does fire people for deviating from policy. We have no real evidence, what we do have is a bunch of innuendo from the 'journalist' and a very small number of disgruntled employees. You are going to have isolated incidences of that at every large factory and it's not limited to blue-collar workers. You will also have people making false charges against fellow employees they don't like so it's not always clear if the bad actor is the accused or the accuser. It's very hard to tell which it is when it's "he said, she said" unless it becomes an identifiable pattern with more than one person making complaints against the same person or the accused is caught in the act by other parties or recorded.