petit_bateau
Active Member
Max S/X prod = 26,903 in Q3 2018
Max S/X del = 28,320 in Q4 2017
This is the best I could do when pulling together my long run dataset. I did find inconsistencies mind you .....
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Max S/X del = 28,320 in Q4 2017
This is the best I could do when pulling together my long run dataset. I did find inconsistencies mind you .....
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Another way to look at price to sales valuation is what P/S ratio range we see after each quarter.
After Q1 we saw the P/S ratio decrease from around 19 down to 11.4.
After Q2 we saw the P/S ratio increase from 11.4 to 13.5, with several peaks over 15.
Using this backwards looking valuation method we seem to hit a low valuation around 11.4 price to sales ratio and are now bouncing in the 13 to 15 price to sales ratio range.
Wouldn't be surprised to see us bounce in the $270-$360 price range through the end of the year. This is my bearish guess. If macro environment improves maybe we can get closer to my original price target for the end of the year of $500 which I revised down from $666.
That's the town to which I moved in January. Not mentioned in the article is the fact that every home garage comes with a 240-volt outlet to charge an EV.
Yesterday I suggested to the Babcock Ranch developer (Kitson & Partners) that thet publicize the way our town survived so well and with no power outage. I wonder if that article was the result?
The only damage to my property was a downed parkway tree, but the HOA uprighted it yesteday.
When planning to move to Florida, among the reasons for my choice of Babcock Ranch was it being 20 miles from the Gulf and 30 feet above sea level with its own solar farm to minimize hurricane difficulties. Still a short drive to the Gulf. Tragically, horrific devestation is now at the end of that short drive. Let's hope future major hurricanes avoid land for quite a while.
This headline and article from Kolodny at CNBC has far less spin than I would have expected:
www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org
Tesla delivered 343,000 vehicles in the third quarter of 2022
In the third quarter of 2022, Tesla faced soaring commodity prices, executive turnover, and growing pains at its new factories in Germany and Texas.
www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org
I earlier provided the entire Latin case of the word.
Maybe I spent too much time watching Bitcoiners on Twitter being right about conspiracies but if I was someone trying to buy cheap $TSLA and had ways to influence, I’d make sure WS and shills gave high forecast numbers, hard for Tesla to reach. Sentiment would be bullish ahead of numbers being released, retail buying. Retail is easily shaken out, nice little fear dump when the forecasts aren’t met.
The last few quarters I’m under the impression that forecasts have been relatively higher than they used to be.
Tesla has its history with WS, I don’t find this idea overly exotic.
The last few quarters I’m under the impression that forecasts have been relatively higher than they used to be.
Tesla has its history with WS, I don’t find this idea overly exotic.
Production is what matters long term, especially when every car in inventory is already sold.
Do NOT expect the large increase in inventory to be reversed in Q4, or any subsequent Quarter.
The inventory/in-transit number should continue to grow in step with production increases. With the expected Q4 production number climbing towards the mid-400ks, then it would not be a surprise to see in transit at end of quarter heading north of 45k. It will get much much larger over the next two-three years as Tesla move from 100k+ production per month towards 100k+ production per week.
This does have an impact on short term results of course, as Tesla is only able to book the revenue after delivery. A 20k addition to in transit inventory is in the ballpark of ~$1 Billion less revenue & ~$300m less operating profit.
Do NOT expect the large increase in inventory to be reversed in Q4, or any subsequent Quarter.
The inventory/in-transit number should continue to grow in step with production increases. With the expected Q4 production number climbing towards the mid-400ks, then it would not be a surprise to see in transit at end of quarter heading north of 45k. It will get much much larger over the next two-three years as Tesla move from 100k+ production per month towards 100k+ production per week.
This does have an impact on short term results of course, as Tesla is only able to book the revenue after delivery. A 20k addition to in transit inventory is in the ballpark of ~$1 Billion less revenue & ~$300m less operating profit.
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Richard34212
Member
We are about 80 miles north of you, also about 20 miles from the Gulf and also at about 30 ft elevation. This was the first major test of our Tesla solar that's now several years old and it did beautifully. Several neighbors with roof-mounted solar pool heaters had panels ripped off during the storm. The Tesla solar panels were all perfect and the whole system is still running perfectly. Also - our 3 week old Model S was safe and dry in the garage! Thank you Tesla!
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S/X has 10% subject to lease accounting on higher P/D numbers, compared with 12% last Q and high
teens before. This got to help with margins, right? 3/Y lease accounting rate is also at all time low
teens before. This got to help with margins, right? 3/Y lease accounting rate is also at all time low
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Another factor is the reduced average shipping distances that should come as Texas and Berlin ramp. All else being equal, this effect would reduce inventory of finished vehicles in transit. It's hard to see right now how it all nets out.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Safety!
www.teslarati.com
Tesla Model X masterfully protects family of four during horrifying crash
Elon Musk has stated that every part of the Tesla Model X was designed with safety as the first priority. He was not joking.
www.teslarati.com
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Another way to look at it (from institutional buyers’ perspective….Gary’s pals) is a lot of risk-averse portfolio managers have put off buying TSLA because of key man risk, unpredictable CEO, Twitter, etc. Then on top of those jitters, the last thing they want to do is buy (or forced to buy depending on their fund) on one of TSLA’s [options-driven] gamma squeezes, which ensures that their short-term returns will look like crap. This was definitely a concern for some during S&P inclusion. The perfect window for the IG rating might be now, because it wasn’t going to come while the stock was outperforming (or rocketing).
After seeing this video from Giga Berlin I counted the number of trailers on the WOW lot both there and in Austin.
In Berlin I saw 380 and in Austin 415. Which jibes with the recent Reuters article (confirmed by Dave Lee from Tesla IR) that Austin would eventually make more TMY cars than Berlin. The article mentioned 3Q23 numbers of 101k vs 90k.
Edit: WOW is short for Warehouse On Wheels.
In Berlin I saw 380 and in Austin 415. Which jibes with the recent Reuters article (confirmed by Dave Lee from Tesla IR) that Austin would eventually make more TMY cars than Berlin. The article mentioned 3Q23 numbers of 101k vs 90k.
Edit: WOW is short for Warehouse On Wheels.
Who remembers what happened after last logistics hell of 1H 2019? 
Though she did throw in some digs that really have nothing to do with delivery and production numbers.This headline and article from Kolodny at CNBC has far less spin than I would have expected:
Tesla delivered 343,000 vehicles in the third quarter of 2022
In the third quarter of 2022, Tesla faced soaring commodity prices, executive turnover, and growing pains at its new factories in Germany and Texas.
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