Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Despite this, ahem, temporary setback, over the long run the Big Boing Theory will be further demonstrated as a viable working hypothesis.

HODL

 

[mongo]

For a guy that has repeatedly said he doesn't care about boosting the stock price I've been wondering why they kept doing that for so long.

Due to the cash flow cycle of selling the cars before they need to pay suppliers, out of quarter sales would have had a material impact on the reported cash equivalent balance with associated FUD resulting.
Tesla's higher asset buffer makes this impact a nothing burger.

Deliveries = revenue, and revenue is what the share price is based upon. 22,000 unsold cars will impact Q3 revenues, there is no getting around that, so this quarter is going to be a bit of a hit for the SP. Yes we should still see record EPS but it will be lower than we previously thought. It might still beat Wall Street's expectations, but by a smaller amount now.

Yeah, even with lower deliveries/ revenue, our local gurus are showing EPS above Wall Street estimates. Less above, but still above. Plus there are a lot of potential adders that may boost it further (used cars, GM improvement, Energy).

 

[Nikxice]

Haha, maybe this'll help:

Crew-5 Mission | 09:15 EDT

Cheers!

FYI, the Crew 5 launch is scheduled for 12 p.m. EDT (1600 GMT) Wednesday, Oct. 5.

 

[Zero CO2]

in for another 15 @ $253.60 this AM ... forgot i had placed a limit order at $260 ... last week I thought this order had no chance ... blue light special this morning on record production and deliveries ... gotta love it

Edit : admittedly i took the weekend off from TMC where i get facts .. was it record production and deliveries or just deliveries ?

 

[Krugerrand]

Disagree. It’s not in line at all. Deliveries are irrelevant.

Again, deliveries are irrelevant. They merely shift money from one quarter to another. Wall Street STILL doesn’t get that.

Tesla just posted record production, record deliveries, and when the earnings come out all the financial metrics will be records as well. It’s not in-line with anything. It’s disconnected from reality.

Literally the only “miss” here is that Tesla gets payment for 20k cars a few weeks later than they otherwise would. That is not at all something that should shave 5% off the value of a company.

It’s ludiccrously ridiculous, and it’s because Wall St is full of a bunch of morons. The guys that were having trouble passing PE in high school? They went to Wall St.

Tesla will post a gigantic Q4 and then they’ll be “wow, we don’t know how they did it.”

Wall St is stupid, no question. Tesla’s executing exactly to plan (ignoring Covid shutdowns that were out of their control) and for some reason they get punished for it.

F’em. At some point TSLA will again explode and people will be all “where did this come from?”.

Not stupid. Ok, some of them are stupid. Mostly they are very good thieves and bandits.

 

[generalenthu]

Analyst notes from my news feed:

GS reiterates buy rating
Truist reiterates Buy, raises PT from 333 to 348
Dan Ives at Wedbush talking up the 475k qtr that Q4 is likely to be. Still a buy obviously.

And the JPM dude reiterated a sell and raised the PT from 137 to 153. Warnings about competition coming.

 

[traxila]

A decent macro day would go a long way to putting this ’disastrous’ record delivery report behind us in terms of SP. Events like this are in the rear view mirror fast in today’s markets, and no more deserving than this one.

Road map for 495 production (that’s production, not delivery) in 4Q:

Berlin / Austin: 90K
Fremont: 160K
Shanghai: 245K

Oh, snap, that was easy! Macros allowing, of course.

I may just be on board.

 

[Paul_SF]

Not stupid. Ok, some of them are stupid. Mostly they are very good thieves and bandits.

Yes, most people forget this crooks make money up and down, it’s all just a rigged game for them.

 

[elasalle]

Need to keep fingers crossed for another 3 mths - that there will be no Covid lockdowns ...

 

[larmor]

Ramping several new factories is difficult and well within the scope of decreased or even no deliveries in a quarter. However factory improvements are being done to increase the run rate, which appears to be on target for the end of the year.

 

[unk45]

Next Moderator task: how to convince @unk45 to discuss today's Brazilian elections and (1) stay somehow somewhat on topic and (2) not overstep the Political! boundary.

He is told he's quite stubborn from time to time.

Tesla is soon to be faced with serious political risk as increasing global sales tend to reach increasingly difficult markets, at least in political terms. Volatility already is evident when political decisions force non-optimal production, distribution and sales decisions.

There is no way to avoid such issues. I'm confident we all agree.
The dilemma is how to keep ourselves informed of relevant risks without descending into political rant.

We do have Ukraine threads which undoubtedly reflect participants biases. Nobody complains. That thread quotes both Russian and Ukrainian sources. OTOH, Market Politics seems to have been a bust because it descended into acrimonious left/right US issues.
We narrowly avert acrimony, sometimes, on China issues and at other times we end out with sloganeering.

Recently we've had a fair amount of CA/TX political posturing.

So, serious question: How do we consider the political risks without descending to political posturing?

Long ago I was part of a country risk evaluation process for a multinational. I wrote a piece recommending a zero country risk limit for a country, based on political assessment. My ultimate boss was a friend of the leader who was deposed a few months later. Truth did not defend a politically stupid choice. I survived and even thrived later but never really was trusted. Not too much later I quit and moved on.

That is a digression, perhaps. Here we just ban each other when we offend. We also, some of us (me explicitly included) post things we think would be interesting when they're tangential to our subject.

So, M'Lord, how can we deal with political risks to Tesla without cluttering extraneous debate?

 

[unk45]

Knowing Tesla they just did what they saw to be the most advantageous at the time. Covid lock down in China and the Typhoon had executives made the decision fairly recently and most likely not pre-planned months ago. They saw this as the most optimal solution to a short term problem.

After all there have been many statements, in passing, that the quarterly rush was dysfunctional and Tesla was doing all it could to reduce that, mostly be adopting local production and supply chains. I agree with you that they saw an opportunity to accelerate that this quarter due to the factor you mention and others. Implicit proof, as @The Accountant , mentioned a few days back, was shipping cars out of Shanghai on the last days of a quarter.

 

[Mengy]

Edit : admittedly i took the weekend off from TMC where i get facts .. was it record production and deliveries or just deliveries ?

Both record production and deliveries. The growth continues!!!

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Sure wish I had a little dry powder today!

 

[SO16]

It truly is amazing how well FUD works on so many people.

 

[Nocturnal]

 

[BornToFly]

Going to be a little tough to finish green today from here....

"You can do it!"

 

[elasalle]

got me 2 jan 25 350 Leaps ... all I could scrape without major reshuffeling.

 

[wtlloyd]

I believe the price action today is best expressed by our old friend, Yosemite Sam:

 

[Nocturnal]

got me 2 jan 25 350 Leaps ... all I could scrape without major reshuffeling.

I was able to get a few of those and some Feb 23 $250s.