Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

Macro is up > 1% so @StarFoxisDown! might be having an aneurysm.

 

[Mengy]

2023 EPS of $10 puts forward PE at 25

It would, but I'm not expecting $10 of EPS for 2023. I'd be ecstatic if it happens though!

 

[jim0266]

The person calling for $200 a few pages back seems like Warren Redlich compared to Ken. He's not saying why he thinks TSLA will get there. This seems rather insane, or am I a toxic bull?

 

[Todd Burch]

I'm starting to get the feeling that Tesla energy is going to surprise majorly to the upside this quarter. We'll see I guess.

 

[AudubonB]

When was the last time you had to read twelve paragraphs of a news article before you first learn its subject?
Try The Street‘s Pulitzer Prize candidate this morning by Luc Olinga (“Musk Sends Scathing Message”).

Bottom of the Barrel - meet Scraper.

 

[Nocturnal]

JP Morgan and Truist raised PTs today.

The person calling for $200 a few pages back seems like Warren Redlich compared to Ken. He's not saying why he thinks TSLA will get there. This seems rather insane, or am I a toxic bull?
View attachment 859513

It's a shame. He is going down the typical rabbit hole of a Tesla bull who sold and became bearish, including lashing out at those who disagree. It's a common pattern.

 

[Mengy]

The person calling for $200 a few pages back seems like Warren Redlich compared to Ken. He's not saying why he thinks TSLA will get there. This seems rather insane, or am I a toxic bull?
View attachment 859513

That seems ridiculous. The PE would need to drop to around 30-35 in order for that to happen. That would be quite the insane drop in valuation for a company growing at 50%+ per year with incredible margins.

 

[elasalle]

The person calling for $200 a few pages back seems like Warren Redlich compared to Ken. He's not saying why he thinks TSLA will get there. This seems rather insane, or am I a toxic bull?
View attachment 859513

Let me guess, TSLA bull who sold his shares ? wants them on the cheap now ?

 

[UncaNed]

The most shocking thing to me after AI day is that people still don't realize how close Tesla is to FSD, how large their lead must be, and the fact that nobody on Wallstreet is putting any value to it. That alone should have been a 10% up day today.....

IMHO, still quite far from approved, autonomous, monetizable FSD like Robotaxi though.

 

[SebastienBonny]

Really crazy seeing the market in general today vs Tesla...

 

[SN_8]

Rumor based on nothing, or?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576944765207482369

 

[lafrisbee]

I'm starting to get the feeling that Tesla energy is going to surprise majorly to the upside this quarter. We'll see I guess.

I entertained the idea, and have previously noticed the "magician" aspect of TSLA. So you may right. It seems one aspect of the Quarterly report always blows me away.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

JP Morgan and Truist raised PTs today.

JPM loves to do this on bear raid days to get their ridiculous target number in the headlines. I guess they think the algos pick it up and it has an impact.

 

[dhanson865]

Zooming Out
FY '19: 365.2k vehicles produced
Q1 '18: 34.5k
Q3 '22: 365.9k

Q3 had slightly more production in one quarter, with production shutdowns for line upgrades and with parts shortages, than all of 2019 had, a 4x increase in just 3 years.

Q3's run rate was an order of magnitude higher than Q1 2018's rate. Specifically, that's 10.6x growth in 18 quarters (4.5 years), which is 69% compound annual growth. This exponential growth remains amazingly steady; if we want to go back two orders of magnitude then that takes us back another 5 years to around January 2013. If this ~69% annual growth rate continues for one more order of magnitude, then in 2027 Tesla will produce about 16 million cars.

View attachment 859302

Spoiler: Table

Quarter	Total Production	TTM Production
Q1 2018	34,494
Q2 2018	53,339
Q3 2018	80,142
Q4 2018	86,555	254,530
Q1 2019	77,138	297,174
Q2 2019	87,048	330,883
Q3 2019	96,155	346,896
Q4 2019	104,891	365,232
Q1 2020	102,672	390,766
Q2 2020	82,272	385,990
Q3 2020	135,036	424,871
Q4 2020	179,757	499,737
Q1 2021	180,338	577,403
Q2 2021	206,421	701,552
Q3 2021	237,823	804,339
Q4 2021	305,840	930,422
Q1 2022	305,407	1,055,491
Q2 2022	258,580	1,107,650
Q3 2022	365,923	1,235,750

zooming out further

 

[slacker775]

Rumor based on nothing, or?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576944765207482369

I'd say based on nothing. If somebody randomly tweeted 'Ford exploring possible purchase of Tesla', would that give it any actual kernel of truth?

 

[Krugerrand]

He is told he's quite stubborn from time to time.

Tesla is soon to be faced with serious political risk as increasing global sales tend to reach increasingly difficult markets, at least in political terms. Volatility already is evident when political decisions force non-optimal production, distribution and sales decisions.

There is no way to avoid such issues. I'm confident we all agree.
The dilemma is how to keep ourselves informed of relevant risks without descending into political rant.

We do have Ukraine threads which undoubtedly reflect participants biases. Nobody complains. That thread quotes both Russian and Ukrainian sources. OTOH, Market Politics seems to have been a bust because it descended into acrimonious left/right US issues.
We narrowly avert acrimony, sometimes, on China issues and at other times we end out with sloganeering.

Recently we've had a fair amount of CA/TX political posturing.

So, serious question: How do we consider the political risks without descending to political posturing?

Long ago I was part of a country risk evaluation process for a multinational. I wrote a piece recommending a zero country risk limit for a country, based on political assessment. My ultimate boss was a friend of the leader who was deposed a few months later. Truth did not defend a politically stupid choice. I survived and even thrived later but never really was trusted. Not too much later I quit and moved on.

That is a digression, perhaps. Here we just ban each other when we offend. We also, some of us (me explicitly included) post things we think would be interesting when they're tangential to our subject.

So, M'Lord, how can we deal with political risks to Tesla without cluttering extraneous debate?

The answers to your questions are the same and easy. None of it is relevant to Tesla. They’ll simply keep their heads down and chug along like they have from the start. They’ll continue to make the right, moral and ethical decisions for all of us regardless of all the extraneous political or otherwise.

What you’re trying to do is make up scenarios that somehow go so wrong for Tesla that it mortally wounds them. Not going to happen. If the world goes so bad that Tesla is destroyed then we’ve got much bigger problems on our hands than the value of our portfolios.

This company does not operate like any other on the planet. They do not make decisions like every other company (or you) make. Take Elon’s words to heart; Tesla will do the right thing even if it means lawsuits against them. Those lawsuits will not kill Tesla, but on the off chance they do, see paragraph above.

I understand that you and many others are compelled by your nature to think negatively, to endlessly search to find that one thing that can destroy the best thing that has ever happened to us all. Every once in a while it isn’t too good to be true.

Tesla will transcend politics. It is you and others who want to make things political despite your words. There isn’t a box that exists to put Tesla in, stop trying so hard to find one.

 

[AudubonB]

This morning’s market activity reiterates why I, many many quarters ago - it was late 2014 or early 2015 - opined how blissful it would be were Tesla truly to thumb its nose at Wall St and provide, each 24 hours (midnight PST/PDT would work best), that day’s auto production. Daily sales would also be grand but those data are probably a little more sticky.

It would have worked when there was only a single production plant; it would work far better now, and continue thusly with each new plant.

Why public companies choose to submit themselves to this Hell every ninety days is absurd. Why a manufacturing company does it is downright MaxPlaidLudicrous. A P&L statement I can understand, but when one’s flagship product is a $50-150k item - to provide such numbers is the lowest of all low-hanging fruits. Easiest plucked; greatest return.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I'd say based on nothing. If somebody randomly tweeted 'Ford exploring possible purchase of Tesla', would that give it any actual kernel of truth?

Other than the fact that Ford cannot afford to purchase Tesla in their lifetime, i would have to agree that there would be no truth if a headline like that came out. Tesla and Google on the other hand 'may' have some common interests that could warrant a partnership.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Rumor based on nothing, or?

Yup. Google gonna subscribe to Tesla StreetView. In their stretch Model 3s. With the new Tesla cellphone. /s

Yobbos mostly come out at night, and during earnings season...

 

[madodel]

It truly is amazing how well FUD works on so many people.

It always amazes me that so many people listen to brokers who make money when you buy and when you sell, but not if you just hold.