Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Should have known the bottom was near when this BS popped up on my youtube feed:

 

[EverettRuess]

I always read your posts too. But I'm still waiting for one that provides a little bit of additional insight.

I don't have much insight into the business. I think the CEO has lost focus as well as not control his asbergers assuming that is possible. I hope he can depend on a friend to help him. He is ruining the brand as well as letting the stock market pound his company because they smell blood. His public persona has been evicerated by his moronic tweets.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

All i know is that:
<1 month from now there will be a semi-delivery event and official start to deliveries of new vehicle that will grow to dominate its market sector in the following years;
<2 months from now there will be a massive, record setting P&D report;
<3 months from now a massive, record setting earnings report
All while market sentiment should be materially improving as inflation keeps ticking down and rate increases begin to taper
Somewhere along the way, TSLA starts ratcheting up dramatically, returns to its former glory, and the mood shift on discussion board is equally dramatic. Everything else is noise.

 

[Xepa777]

So….I skipped TMC yesterday. Good decision

Although Fred seems to have jumped on the FUD train, this sounds disappointing if true. And I suspect he meant “en masse”, not “in mass”.

Tesla cancels solar projects en masse, scales back solar division

Tesla has canceled solar projects en masse across the US as the company says that it is shutting down its solar operations in some markets.

electrek.co

my solar project in NorCal was cancelled very disappointed as I was trying to best NEM 3 and turned down other vendors

 

[Mengy]

My best guess is many people are holding out for 1/1/23 for their tax credits.
Since GM and TSLA are the only ones not currently participating in the current ev tax credits.

Tesla is the one most being affected by potential holdouts, since GM isn't really making tons of ev's

This. Tesla likely won't adjust pricing until after the new bill goes into effect on Jan 1. At that point they'll be able to make better decisions on whether or not to lower prices.

 

[Singuy]

Should have known the bottom was near when this BS popped up on my youtube feed:

View attachment 873278

It's click bait and he always recommend buying tesla.. however the market can look at this and think bulls capitulated which is a good thing.

 

[Discoducky]

I don't have much insight into the business. I think the CEO has lost focus as well as not control his asbergers assuming that is possible. I hope he can depend on a friend to help him. He is ruining the brand as well as letting the stock market pound his company because they smell blood. His public persona has been evicerated by his moronic tweets.

I'll admit, I'm a bit excited to know why @Curt Renz finds this post helpful.

Maybe because eviscerated was spelled wrong?

 

[MarketsRFun]

I know this isn’t a popular character, but Troy Teslike posted about rumors in China of a massive price cut spreading around. Like 15% (!)

He calculates 5% gross margin after such a thing. Even if not true of course a potentially damaging belief if widely held.

At some point mathematically cutting prices is simply self defeating versus cutting supply and selling to those willing to pay so this feels almost like an absurdity but you know it would be nice to get a ‘not true’ tweet from anyone at Tesla. Now the FTC is apparently crawling all over him on Twitter so maybe he’s tied up with that and helping DojaCat.

Fun times.

 

[Cobbler]

History likes to repeat itself. This was me 5 years ago on this forum

 

[M|S|M MYP]

History likes to repeat itself. This was me 5 years ago on this forum

View attachment 873282

I will take $270 by Christmas...only then will my kids get presents

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Huge volume again today, we sure Elon is not 'buying' this time?

 

[Gigapress]

Elon gets is right in so many ways when it comes to almost everything he works on/produces......but selling his stock in an effective manner (regardless of what he wants to spend the proceeds on) has not been one of them. In fact, it's the most idiotic thing I've ever seen in my history of investing which is over 15 years. Never seen anything like it.

I don't care that he bought an overpriced turd in Twitter. I care about the way it's all went down. Elon clearly got his ass handed to him by Wall St. Probably the biggest butt whooping I've ever seen. I've never seen a CEO singhandily crush his stock like this.

And anyone trying to say that the stocks performance is even remotely in line with the macro's and it's beta is in self denial. If Tesla the company hadn't executed so well, the stock would easily be down 70% right now and Elon's selling would have had an even bigger impact, causing further declines.

The stock performance is in line with the macros, unless you mean just in the last week. Literally, it is in an orderly line.

In the last 12 months a 10% change in the S&P has been correlated with a 30% change in TSLA. TSLA has never been above $350 without the S&P 500 being at least 4,470, which is 14% higher than today's 3,920.

The chart below shows TSLA's performance relative to the expectation based on the macro using the trendline equation from the first scatter plot.

• 90% of the time, the actual TSLA price was within +/- $42 of the expectation from the trend line
  • 50% of the time, within just +/- $18

• TSLA's performance relative to its beta has generally been improving over the last 12 months, as shown by the upward slope on the trendline. Surprisingly, this improvement began in April, which was when Elon came public with his intention to purchase Twitter.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does anyone know how long short he has been in TSLA?

FTFY.

Cheers!

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

He's not selling. He's too busy helping DojaCat with her twitter account support issues. #jokingnotjoking

He'll probably get a few more children out of that deal.

 

[Doit]

From his enthuasm about GM dog and pony show at the time of hummer ev press event, I don't put too much stock into what Ives says. GM did bet on importing EVs drom CN, and obviously did not have a plan B. Ives, was not seeing through that. He should stick to counting iPhone supercycles

I still think Ives just doesn’t really get it. He talks as if he does sometimes but over the years I’ve noticed how he says things that just aren’t right. It’s always made me doubt green tidal waves Ives. Him turning bearish is no surprise to me.

Has he really turned bearish though? I think he's probably just tired of the drama for the time being. He'll be back once the black clouds clear, imo.

Who's this Dan Ives guy?

A few days after $NKLA IPOed, TMCers here were already sick of talking about it and even joked us as $NKLAQ:

More than two months later when $NKLA "stablized" after the IPO euphoria, Dan Ives initiated his Nilola coverage with a price target of $45, and it's all down from there.

Dan Ives: Nikola ‘Could Be a Major Horse in the EV Race.’

He sees potential in the heavy-duty trucking pioneer, and launched coverage with the equivalent of a Hold rating and a $45 price target.

Ives's $NKLA PT (Tipranking):

For $RIVN, Mr. Ives was more bullish and only waited one month after IPO, with an initial PT of $130:
Rivian is the one that could disrupt Tesla, analysts say

Wedbush’s Dan Ives also started Rivian with a bullish outperform rating, and set a $130 stock price target, saying the “stalwart EV startup” is looking to strategically launch itself into an untapped market as SUV and pickup truck EVs are currently virtually nonexistent in the EV market.

It's also entertaining to check his Uber and Lyft coverage. In 2018 or 2019, I drove Lyft for one day to get a sense of ride-hailing's direction and concluded I would never touch it. Not sure how Mr. Ives does his research, but from Tipranks, other than one "Hold" on $LYFT, he has more 50 "Buy" ratings between Uber and Lyft, and nothing else.

 

[Dave EV]

Although Fred seems to have jumped on the FUD train, this sounds disappointing if true.

Tesla cancels solar projects en masse, scales back solar division

Tesla has canceled solar projects en masse across the US as the company says that it is shutting down its solar operations in some markets.

electrek.co

Sounds like it's true and not FUD - but I also have to wonder if Tesla is trying to focus on the most profitable areas of the country for now. They've gone back and forth on this multiple times in the past.

The energy business has never been that profitable for Tesla, so while it's disappointing that they are scaling back in some areas, it's easy to see why they're doing so.

IMO I would rather Tesla focus on improving the profitability of solar / energy installs, I think there's still a lot of room for improvement there.

 

[Mengy]

The stock performance is in line with the macros, unless you mean just in the last week. Literally, it is in an orderly line.

In the last 12 months a 10% change in the S&P has been correlated with a 30% change in TSLA. TSLA has never been above $350 without the S&P 500 being at least 4,470, which is 14% higher than today's 3,920.

View attachment 873261

The chart below shows TSLA's performance relative to the expectation based on the macro using the trendline equation from the first scatter plot.

• 90% of the time, the actual TSLA price was within +/- $42 of the expectation from the trend line
  • 50% of the time, within just +/- $18

• TSLA's performance relative to its beta has generally been improving over the last 12 months, as shown by the upward slope on the trendline. Surprisingly, this improvement began in April, which was when Elon came public with his intention to purchase Twitter.

View attachment 873281

I don't understand Giga, how do you calculate the "expected" price for TSLA at any given time? Expected using what metrics and PE?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The stock performance is in line with the macros, unless you mean just in the last week. Literally, it is in an orderly line.

In the last 12 months a 10% change in the S&P has been correlated with a 30% change in TSLA. TSLA has never been above $350 without the S&P 500 being at least 4,470, which is 14% higher than today's 3,920.

View attachment 873261

The chart below shows TSLA's performance relative to the expectation based on the macro using the trendline equation from the first scatter plot.

• 90% of the time, the actual TSLA price was within +/- $42 of the expectation from the trend line
  • 50% of the time, within just +/- $18

• TSLA's performance relative to its beta has generally been improving over the last 12 months, as shown by the upward slope on the trendline. Surprisingly, this improvement began in April, which was when Elon came public with his intention to purchase Twitter.

View attachment 873281

Giga press I love ya man but no it’s not. If you plot the points at which Elon has sold and/or heightened the fear of his selling by whatever he said about his Twitter deal in Q2 and Q3, he has repeatedly knee capped the stock when it was outperforming the macros. And again, it’s the method of his selling that is the destructive part. Multiple times this year TSLA went from vastly outperforming it’s beta, a few times actually beating the Nasdaq straight up only for Elon to come along and destroy the stock

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I know this isn’t a popular character, but Troy Teslike posted about rumors in China of a massive price cut spreading around. Like 15% (!)

He calculates 5% gross margin after such a thing. Even if not true of course a potentially damaging belief if widely held.

At some point mathematically cutting prices is simply self defeating versus cutting supply and selling to those willing to pay so this feels almost like an absurdity but you know it would be nice to get a ‘not true’ tweet from anyone at Tesla. Now the FTC is apparently crawling all over him on Twitter so maybe he’s tied up with that and helping DojaCat.

Fun times.

Geee just like weeks before for the end of Q3 where he predicted a price drop that didn’t happen in the quarter. This guy is more destructive as a closet care bear than any outspoken bear has ever been.

He loves to say whatever necessary to make his predictions comes true

 

[wipster]

Woo hoo 190.72! A green day for once!