Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

Yep. It will take years to gain the confidence of many investors back. And even if the stock partially recovers many will bail as soon as they can get out without losing their shirt. They’ll just be happy to be clear of the train wreck.

Jmho.

I'm not so sure it will take years.

Tesla is about to grow revenues in a huge way in 2023, and if the Twitter crap calms down over the next 6-12 months (emphasis on IF) then I think investor sentiment will come back a bit. Wall Street loves to make money, and if TSLA keeps growing like it is despite the Twitter mess then my gut feeling is they'll jump back in, especially once the PE compresses to obscenely low levels. Tesla has a lot of financial catalysts coming up over the next year or two, they'll be hard to ignore even with a FUD battle going on.

In the short term though, I think we are going keep hurting.

 

[larmor]

Sounds like you are invested in ELON. Personally, I invested in TSLA.

Tesla is more than 100,000 employees. It is absolutely not a train wreck. Whatever you think of Elon, Tesla the company is in great shape.

Tesla is still making cars still going to release semi EV, the cost of operations will be lower than regular semi tractor trailers.
The fact that Tesla continues, despite Elon, diverting his attention to other endeavors is a huge bullish sign which the media and market chooses to ignore but buyers of cars and trucks are taking notice

 

[JusRelax]

Tesla Insurance is now available in Minnesota. That makes 12 states total that Tesla Insurance is available in:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1593422408890949633

 

[MarketsRFun]

Gonna chuckle if we're green tomorrow.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Tesla Insurance is now available in Minnesota. That makes 12 states total that Tesla Insurance is available in:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1593422408890949633

View attachment 875712

As often as Merritt keeps BREAKING, shouldn't he be BROKEN?

 

[MC3OZ]

That is funny! What I needed.

Folks, I realize it is hard to understand software, how it is made, sausage factory kind of process, but it happens, it is real, it is what powers your daily life, you wouldn't have it any other way. Imagine a life without a toaster and then compound that by a ba-gillion.

Most people don't even know how a toaster is made or the decades of tech stack we stand on to make that possible! Now, compare that to the phone you carry around everyday. Do you know how that works? No and neither do I. But I know a fair bit more than the average Joe (ok, maybe not our own @ZeApelido) about hardware, software and services engineering development and design. I pleaded with the Android team, for 2 years, to implement new constellations and antennas to allow my beloved maps Gaussian road snapping to work better, but alas, I digress...

IMHO, Elon is doing the right thing...engineering-wise, I have my own Product Management opinions, but the engineering is spot on (you think the Raptor 2 is happening by luck?). All the other sugar is cruft.

Imagine being a shareholder who sold out now only to find out in future that.

• Q4 production and deliveries are great.
• A substantial share buyback happens early in 2023.
• The Semi and Cybertruck ramps and sales go smoothly.
• The Robotaxi and Others platform is revealed and is very popular.
• FSD works well enough to apply for regulatory approval sometime in 2023.
• Optimus makes good progress, and even laughs at @ZeApelido's jokes.

OK, not all of the list is certain to happen, but the last one is.

 

[Gigapress]

Events that people thought would doom TSLA, Tesla and Elon's brand permanently

• Years of fraud accusations
• Puffing a blunt with Joe Rogan
• "Funding secured"
• "Pedo guy"
• Dating Grimes
• Blood emerald mining accusations
• Calling analyst questions "boring, boneheaded" (correctly but impolitely) on official earnings call and talking to a YouTuber instead
• "We will coup whoever we want"
• Fremont tent/Production hell
• Saying COVID cases in US would quickly trend to zero early in pandemic
• Calling California lockdowns "fascist" on official earnings call and swearing
• Sexual assault allegation
• "I do not respect the SEC. I do not respect them."
• Being friends with Peter Thiel, Kanye West, et al.
• Solar City buyout and allegations of bailing out his cousin Lyndon Rive
• Spreading incorrect information about COVID
• Having 11 kids
• Joining then-President Trump's business advisory council and attending sessions at the White House
• Public arguments with Democratic politicians
• Reopening Fremont factory in 2020 in defiance of Alameda County edict
• "FSD coast to coast in 2017"

I'm sure this one is different. Everyone will ignore earnings or stop buying Tesla products.

 

[Ogre]

• "FSD coast to coast in 2017"

They were just waiting to demo FSD coast to coast during the Cybertruck Coast to Coast in 2020…

 

[Gigapress]

Yep. It will take years to gain the confidence of many investors back. And even if the stock partially recovers many will bail as soon as they can get out without losing their shirt. They’ll just be happy to be clear of the train wreck.

Jmho.

Years? Literally years?

What are your EPS projections for '23, '24, '25?

 

[dgodfrey]

Sounds like you are invested in ELON. Personally, I invested in TSLA.

Tesla is more than 100,000 employees. It is absolutely not a train wreck. Whatever you think of Elon, Tesla the company is in great shape.

It’s hard to separate ELON from TSLA, but I get your point. However, maybe subconsciously I did invest in ELON due to his accomplishments, not his missteps. In spite of his Aspie induced, unfiltered, awkward, behavior that leaves no group unscathed and pissed off, I don’t think he’s ever had a failed business venture that he was the primary decision maker. I have very little worry that after all the obstacles he’s successfully navigated the past 30 years, his luck has run out.

 

[wipster]

e*Trade headlines under TSLA this afternoon:

"The Fisker Ocean is born, opening up a new era for the Car Business - - Barron's.com"

"Fisker rolling out Ocean all electric SUV, with the Fisker Ocean Extreme model priced at $68,999"

"Fisker Ocean: world's most sustainable vehicle starts production on schedule"

While the headlines and the articles literally gush about the Ocean and Ocean Extreme, they will be lucky if they make 5 by the end of the year, and they plan 3,000 for 1st qtr 2023 and 8,000 for the 2nd, with 42,000 for the entire year if they get very very lucky. And these vehicles aren't even built by Fisker, a California-based company, they're being contract manufactured by an auto parts manufacturer, Magna International… in Austria! When could go wrong? Yet the articles are more than positive because that's how iPhones are built don't you know?

I'm more than convinced there is a concentrated effort to talk down or past Tesla when probably within a year the Model Y may just very well be just THE BEST SELLING CAR IN THE WORLD, not just BEV but all autos.

Perhaps now that Twitter is becoming the place to publish truth, there can be some realistic honest articles about Tesla's current and future dominance and superiority, instead of crap about how a Tesla caught on fire today in PA after hitting debris in the road. Family was unhurt, but it took the Fire Dept 2 whole hours to put it out (using nothing but that chemical… you know, water). This made the local news here in Spokane. Meanwhile, there are ~477 highway vehicle fires every day in the US, but the one Tesla fire makes the national news? Give me a break. The fire will probably be the headline tomorrow bringing the SP even farther down as obviously Tesla's are death traps.

As my best friend often says "F*** me hard."

 

[Artful Dodger]

A substantial share buyback happens early in 2023.

About 275K free shares if Tesla does a $5B share buyback at these prices in 2022 (before the US Federal 1% tax on share buybacks kicks in on Jan 2nd, 2023).

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Imagine being a shareholder who sold out now only to find out in future that.

• Q4 production and deliveries are great.
• A substantial share buyback happens early in 2023.
• The Semi and Cybertruck ramps and sales go smoothly.
• The Robotaxi and Others platform is revealed and is very popular.
• FSD works well enough to apply for regulatory approval sometime in 2023.
• Optimus makes good progress, and even laughs at @ZeApelido's jokes.

OK, not all of the list is certain to happen, but the last one is.

Without distracting about the blue-bird-company stuff, I do think Tesla might be at an inflection point that resembles when Johnny Ive took over from Steve Jobs at Apple.

Yeah, the product innovation tapered off and things become much more evolutionary and iterative refinement.

But profits were great! Apple stock went up 10x in the decade after Jobs died.... It's less magical, but it sure can move iPhones off the shelves.

 

[MikeC]

Sign the buyback petition:

Can you spare a minute to help this campaign?

Retail investors propose to Tesla Inc.'s Board to consider Share Buyback

chng.it

https://twitter.com/x/status/1593428629387497473

 

[Nocturnal]

No employees means no cost. Not naming anyone in particular, but I think that means lower odds of needing to sell shares of a certain car company.

Years? Literally years?

What are your EPS projections for '23, '24, '25?

Vast majority who are telling themselves they want an exit point due to fear or worries about Elon will forget all about that as they set their highs on new ATHs. Probably as soon as we get back above 300.

 

[SO16]

Does anyone see a common pattern with Elon and his companies?

When SpaceX was started, they laughed. A handful of years later SpaceX is now leading the space industry.

When Tesla started, they laughed. A handful of years later, Tesla is now leading the EV revolution.

When Elon took over Twitter, they laughed. A handful of years later…

 

[Knightshade]

When Elon took over Twitter, they laughed. A handful of years later…

...the posts about it still don't belong here


(that said, there IS a legit difference, actually a lot of them, between building a company from scratch, and taking over one that's been in business for many years- for example immediate wholesale firings in the later case leads to important institutional knowledge being lost without it being documented-- it can usually, eventually, be recovered from, but it's 100% a self inflicted unnecessary error-- but there's a whole other thread to debate about it in this case)

 

[Singuy]

...the posts about it still don't belong here


(that said, there IS a legit difference, actually a lot of them, between building a company from scratch, and taking over one that's been in business for many years- for example immediate wholesale firings in the later case leads to important institutional knowledge being lost without it being documented-- it can usually, eventually, be recovered from, but it's 100% a self inflicted unnecessary error-- but there's a whole other thread to debate about it in this case)

You see this time is different. It's not zip2 or paypal. It's a rocket company that no sane person have ever tried. Elon doesn't even know how to make rockets, where will he find the talent?


We can do this forever trying to provide every reason why Elon will fail and whatever he is doing may be stupid, and why this time is different.

I find it hilarious that everyone is claiming this is Musk's greatest mistake because 80% of software programmers left..when Musk literally surrounds himself with software programmers. I mean rocket engineers are hard to find, but software programmers Musk have seen them all.

 

[RobDickinson]

What does a car guy know about software anyho

 

[Rammstein]

What does a car guy know about software anyho

I thought he was a rocket guy?

I heard we won the lottery or something to buy those rockets.