Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Fun times

https://twitter.com/x/status/1594752254728278016

It's dumb not to have credit card debt with all the 18 months 0% interest offers. Especially when TSLA is this cheap

 

[UkNorthampton]

To be fair- so have Tonys projections been wrong year after year too, just in the opposite direction. For example his charts said we should be able to buy 200 mile range EVs for 18-20k USD by roughly now.

You probably can in China.

UK is Right-Hand-Drive (RHD), so less choice/smaller market/harder import than the bigger EU/EEC Left-Hand-Drive market (we'll ignore EU RHD markets).

For UK - 20% VAT (Value Added Tax) & 10% import duty for Chinese vehicles.

No UK subsidies any more - other countries subsidise - sometimes that encourages more competition in general.

Last few years have affected supply & increased car prices more than Tony Seba would have modelled (I guess).

If my numbers are correct

so 1.1*1.2 = 1.32 (I'd expect them to be cumulative)


Genuine 200 mile range - MG MG4 EV Long Range

pre-import price=£28,495/1.32

21587 GBP in USD is 25,514 - probably cheaper nearer a LHD import hub such as Netherlands.



Reported 200 mile range (assuming 170 mile real range is equivalent) - MG MG4 EV Standard Range

25,995/1.32

= 19693 GBP

= 23,278 USD - probably cheaper nearer a LHD import hub such as Netherlands.

Spoiler: Ev-database-image-search-results

 

[MarketsRFun]

Anyone figure out the over/under for good/bad on the China weekly #s tonight?

Also when's the release time?

My bad. Wrong forum.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

My bad. Wrong forum.

Get out of here with actual data questions

(They usually come out around 4-5 pm Bejing time, so around 1-2 am pacific time tomorrow)

 

[Opus BC fan]

Brutal day. And my order for hair by singed is not expected until the 1st quarter of 2023...HODL if you can folks

 

[ggr]

Glad to hear it, thanks. MODS, this means a firmer hand is indicated with OT/Banned topics:

• Don't be afraid to just delete an OT post (is it Banned? End of Discussion.)
• keep track of who's posts are being deleted (there are serial abusers)
• use the BAN hammer to encourage the incorrigible

Trolling only works when it's encouraged (folks replying to trolls), or when its ignored (patterns emerge quickly enough when you follow this Forum daily).

Let's try to work together to keep our good members and encourage high quality posts. Makes for better reading, too.

Thanks.

Thank you for your well-meaning advice, bless your heart. Regrettably it all assumes that the moderators have time on their hands. I'm 12 pages behind as I read and reply to this post.

edit: 15 pages when I finished this post.

 

[Big Time]

My bad. Wrong forum.

I asked same question earlier, I think we’re just sobbing instead.

But positive news: Semi release just around the corner

We big time!

 

[Cherry Wine]

Fun times

https://twitter.com/x/status/1594752254728278016

The world wasn’t ending in 2019 though.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Anyone figure out the over/under for good/bad on the China weekly #s tonight?

Also when's the release time?

15K would substantiate a storyline of solid China demand.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

15K would substantiate a storyline of solid China demand.

15k would more than substantiate solid China demand. It would mean they're selling through practically all of their available inventory in China presently because they're still exporting at least half of production. They would be on track for 45k local deliveries and over 45k in exports.

 

[ShareLofty]

But honestly he might be getting margin called. That guy always spoke about playing the margin game hard. Why was he meeting with Adam Jonas from MS? Need some liquidity? Maybe Elon's not selling but I feel like someone big is. IMHO any retailer with paper hands already lost their shares.

I thought Uncle Leo said he wasn’t using margin anymore. I’ll try and find the tweet

 

[generalenthu]

I thought Uncle Leo said he wasn’t using margin anymore. I’ll try and find the tweet

I remember him trading calls which is leverage, practically speaking. Of course, not using margin is technically true too.

Anyways, no hard proof (or links), but there was some speculation that he was one of the largest call players in the market.

 

[generalenthu]

Down 12.3 on nothing. Hang in there guys n gals. By my calculations in 14 days (168/12.3 = 13.7), we should be trading negative. Liberation by Christmas time.

 

[ZeApelido]

Maybe I should stick with TMC.

 

[PlaidCPA]

I've googled "How much margin does Elon have?" Results are all over the place but this one stands out:

"That’s because $12.5 billion of that debt is a margin loan — and that could be bad for Tesla shareholders because, as Reuters reported, were Tesla's stock to drop by 40%, Musk would have to repay that loan — possibly by selling Tesla shares." Will Elon Musk’s $150 Billion Tesla Margin Debt Benefit Bill Gates?

Since then, the stock is down 40% so not sure how close is Elon to selling Tesla to pay off various credit lines/margins.

 

[2daMoon]

So, if the SP goes below zero do we have to pay the difference just to HODL?

Asking for a friend.

/S

 

[phantasms]

I've googled "How much margin does Elon have?" Results are all over the place but this one stands out:

"That’s because $12.5 billion of that debt is a margin loan — and that could be bad for Tesla shareholders because, as Reuters reported, were Tesla's stock to drop by 40%, Musk would have to repay that loan — possibly by selling Tesla shares." Will Elon Musk’s $150 Billion Tesla Margin Debt Benefit Bill Gates?

Since then, the stock is down 40% so not sure how close is Elon to selling Tesla to pay off various credit lines/margins.

This is an absolute cluster....and an absolute opportunity. Once again, we all know where this story ends. TSLA valued at many thousands per share and Elon saving urine in glass jars. #noMargin

 

[Singuy]

I've googled "How much margin does Elon have?" Results are all over the place but this one stands out:

"That’s because $12.5 billion of that debt is a margin loan — and that could be bad for Tesla shareholders because, as Reuters reported, were Tesla's stock to drop by 40%, Musk would have to repay that loan — possibly by selling Tesla shares." Will Elon Musk’s $150 Billion Tesla Margin Debt Benefit Bill Gates?

Since then, the stock is down 40% so not sure how close is Elon to selling Tesla to pay off various credit lines/margins.

It'll be pretty stupid to mass dump shares to the point of hitting a margin loan which results in more shares to be dumped. I think people who are sitting on the sidelines hoping this will happen will never see it happen.

Plus Elon can just buy like 100M dollars worth of Tesla stocks and the stock will skyrocket 10% just to show twitter is financially fine. The board can also announce a stock buy back. Many levers to pull to rescue the stock price. You don't see Musk panicking because it's not worth panicking over.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I've googled "How much margin does Elon have?" Results are all over the place but this one stands out:

"That’s because $12.5 billion of that debt is a margin loan — and that could be bad for Tesla shareholders because, as Reuters reported, were Tesla's stock to drop by 40%, Musk would have to repay that loan — possibly by selling Tesla shares." Will Elon Musk’s $150 Billion Tesla Margin Debt Benefit Bill Gates?

Since then, the stock is down 40% so not sure how close is Elon to selling Tesla to pay off various credit lines/margins.

Except for that fact that Elon already sold shares instead of using the margin loan. The financing was changed. There is no margin loan now. This has been known for a while now

 

[generalenthu]

All you peeps calculating PEs should probably also start backing out the net cash on BS. At about $5, this is now becoming not insignificant.

Adjusted for debt, Tesla is now quite comparable to google that has about $7 in cash per share (SP = 96, so much higher as % of SP), and MSFT has about $4 (SP = 242), AAPL is actually quite indebted (no net cash), and same with Amazon, nflx, nvda, etc.

Well, Meta has about 6.66 $/ share in cash (no kidding), but for someone that has been burning cash, thats not much solace.

PS: I know peeps will correct me saying its more than $5 for Tesla, but I am using yahoo numbers to be consistent.
PPS: I looked and found no other names on this list - no large cap oil cos, no berkshire, if anyone thinks of a name, drop it here. Not sure I can filter for this easily without backing out debt.