Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

If I'd asked you a year ago if 4680 production would be online by the end of 2022 would you have said "Rome wasn't built in a day"?

I seriously doubt 1 in 10 people on this thread expected the 4680 ramp would be dragging out this long.

I'm still bullish as hell (literally just bought more shares earlier today), but it feels like the longer this gets delayed the less likely they will be able to realize the potential they teased.

You are spot on. I'd have been shocked because it's always been about the batteries. When Tesla was literally the only company in the world with reliable controllable production from a GF than there really was no competition. Porsche VW GM etc could all talk about Tesla Killers but there were no good batteries to be had. GM created 1 competitor in LG and China had BYD and CATL emerge. LG, much maligned, has apparently fixed the pouch battery issue. Nothing really to counter the Panasonic 2170.

Now the OEMs have moved aggressively to create a fleet of GFs not just across Asia but in the USA and Europe. Before it was impossible for anyone to actually compete with Tesla even if they had a great vehicle. Now there is a 2 year window before these new factories start pumping out production. These new factories will, cumulatively, dwarf Renos production. Reno enabled a negotiating position with the battery makers that was unmatched. They could literally make or break a factories startup. Now, that is gone. I believe we've gone from battery constraints to potential oversupply by 2027.

I was shocked when I realized the 4680 was, to put it mildly, in deep trouble back in January. At that point I started digging and I realized it was really in trouble and I got a few days ban as I argued with many here about this point. Turns out ...I was right. When Tesla proudly proclaimed they had produced 1000000 cells, to date, in january that was the time to sell. Oh well. It's also clear that the 4680 production really hasn't taken off. I have no idea how they plan to move all of Reno to the Semi but that seems like what they plan to do.

 

[The Accountant]

It's only been up 20 min so I think the latest video from Wu Wa is 'news'. Haven't read any posts here today yet.

His comments are often rather badly translated so has been misunderstood in the past but here is the latest one.

"In December, Tesla's Shanghai factory was rumored to have stopped production, shortened working hours and stopped production in the last week. Tesla also dismissed the rumor. What is the real situation? One or two things can be seen from the field observation. Of course, through inquiry, we know that since Monday, the Shanghai factory has reduced production by about 30%, but the working hours of workers have not changed. Seen from the outside area of the factory, it is still busy. At the port, there are trucks carrying Tesla and the signs on the vehicles are EU. From these circumstances, we can roughly judge that the current production reduction may be the supply of the Chinese market. Perhaps, as everyone judges, the sales in the Chinese market tend to be weak. What do you think?"

What could be the reason why these cars are covered?

 

[nativewolf]

I sure hope this is the case.

Since the cathode production is well underway perhaps that means these issues are behind us too?

That's just not the case, it wasn't the case in January and it isn't now. It's manufacturing. Someone we know says it's hard.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nobody expected Shanghai to be shut down for about a month 10 weeks.

FTFY. Don't forget there was 1 week at the end of Q1, 5 weeks in Q2 for covfefe. Call it 90K lost production, but you could also tack on the reduced production when they restarted w. only 1 shift for 2 weeks, then reduced hrs on 2 shifts for another 2 weeks ('closed mode' went into June w. 6 days/week of production instead of the usual 24/7 production),

Then two staggered factory line upgrades were delayed 2 mths from May to Aug 2022. Those updates were planned to be finished by end of April, so we also lost the extra output due to the delay of 4 mths for those upgrades. ~80K extra production missed just from that delay.

Call it about ~200K reduced output at Giga Shanghai in 2022 vs. planned output due to covfefe and related delays. We'll make that up in 2023 though.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Since the cathode production is well underway perhaps that means these issues are behind us too?

Being handled, anyway. The new Tesla lithium mill is still in the approvals process in Corpus Christie, but I expect more details with M.P.#3 (maybe published in Q1?)

Negotiations for Tesla's proposed lithium refinery in Texas moves behind closed doors - Drive Tesla​

 

[Zero CO2]

ARK in for some more today

ARKK view fund page​

12/15/2022​

Direction	Ticker	Company Name	Shares Traded | % of Total ETF​
Buy	TSLA	TESLA INC	5,962 | 0.0132​
Buy	VERV	VERVE THERAPEUTICS INC	37,163 | 0.0104​
Sell	MTLS	MATERIALISE NV	1,772 | 0.0002​
Sell	VCYT	VERACYTE INC	37,746 | 0.0151​
Sell	EXAS	EXACT SCIENCES CORP	77,819 | 0.0489​

ARKQ view fund page​

12/15/2022​

Direction	Ticker	Company Name	Shares Traded | % of Total ETF​
Buy	TSLA	TESLA INC	500 | 0.0091​

ARKG view fund page​

12/15/2022​

Direction	Ticker	Company Name	Shares Traded | % of Total ETF​
Buy	VERV	VERVE THERAPEUTICS INC	8,874 | 0.0084​
Buy	CMPS	COMPASS PATHWAYS PLC	7,788 | 0.0036​
Sell	IOVA	IOVANCE BIOTHERAPEUTICS INC	5,003 | 0.0016​

 

[Xepa777]

The 4680 setback occurred with a single vote of an unelected 3-person environmental board in N. Carolina in 2021. This was to delay the Piedmont lithium mine due to concerns about "too much dust on the roads". NSS.

• In push to supply Tesla, Piedmont Lithium irks North Carolina neighbors | Reuters (Mar 23, 2021)
• Tesla agrees to delayed shipment from Piedmont Lithium | (Aug 3, 2021)

Tesla was ready to begin construction of the Giga Texas cathode plant when this decision came out. Tesla immediately stopped staging materials like structural steel for construction, and delayed start of the plant by over a year. We started to hear about the CT schedule being pushed back by a year shortly thereafter. Again, NSS, but Tesla's not just gonna come out and say this publicly.

That's why the 4680 seems a year delayed: you can't build bricks without straw. And Tesla can not magically poof 50M tons of cathode material out of the world supply chain, even if it was available at an affordable price (it's not). So it's not 4680s, its raw materials. Or as Elon tweeted recently about Master Plan 3:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@DoctorJack16 Master Plan (mé·nage à) Trois is all about tonnage" / Twitter | Nov 2, 2022​

Paging @Ogre and info for anybody who thinks 4680 tech is holding back 4680 production. It's permitting, and its a NIMBY risk, just like the drumbeat of delays at Giga Berlin. Political interests involved, as well as payments.

Ehh…both everything you are saying could be true and the 4680 development setbacks could be true. The 4680 cell was wildly disappointing in all the major deep analysis YouTube channels (limiting factor, Munroe, cleaner watt).

After the 2021 Q2 call about 4680 having major problems solved, I’m pretty disappointed as that seems to be a severe overstatement now upon retrospect.

 

[betstarship]

Wow

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603544109955788800

 

[bubb]

A new regime for net metering in California was approved today: California pulls the plug on rooftop solar

 

[Singuy]

Wow

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603544109955788800

Is the entire city of San Fran under 35 mph? Because that's the approval there.

 

[thesmokingman]

A new regime for net metering in California was approved today: California pulls the plug on rooftop solar

That is so ****ed up!

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's a good ass video tho. His rants are priceless

... and Sasha tore Chicken Pot Pie a new bottom with this epic video on Oct 11, 2022

SELL TESLA STOCK NOW - Don't Be A Chicken! | Sasha Yanshin Live - videos

Totally enjoyable (even now). @Unpilot

 

[Cosmacelf]

The 4680 setback occurred with a single vote of an unelected 3-person environmental board in N. Carolina in 2021. This was to delay the Piedmont lithium mine due to concerns about "too much dust on the roads". NSS.

• In push to supply Tesla, Piedmont Lithium irks North Carolina neighbors | Reuters (Mar 23, 2021)
• Tesla agrees to delayed shipment from Piedmont Lithium | (Aug 3, 2021)

Tesla was ready to begin construction of the Giga Texas cathode plant when this decision came out. Tesla immediately stopped staging materials like structural steel for construction, and delayed start of the plant by over a year. We started to hear about the CT schedule being pushed back by a year shortly thereafter. Again, NSS, but Tesla's not just gonna come out and say this publicly.

That's why the 4680 seems a year delayed: you can't build bricks without straw. And Tesla can not magically poof 50M tons of cathode material out of the world supply chain, even if it was available at an affordable price (it's not). So it's not 4680s, its raw materials. Or as Elon tweeted recently about Master Plan 3:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@DoctorJack16 Master Plan (mé·nage à) Trois is all about tonnage" / Twitter | Nov 2, 2022​

Paging @Ogre and info for anybody who thinks 4680 tech is holding back 4680 production. It's permitting, and its a NIMBY risk, just like the drumbeat of delays at Giga Berlin. Political interests involved, as well as payments.

This is the first time I've seen these dots connected together to account for Cybertruck delay. So ... is Piedmont now supplying Tesla or has Tesla found a different affordable source?

 

[juanmedina]

I want to see that 1 year chart comparison again by the end of the year.

CNBC trashing Tesla really hard. One guy said that he was considering buying the stock.

 

[Knightshade]

The 4680 setback occurred with a single vote of an unelected 3-person environmental board in N. Carolina in 2021. This was to delay the Piedmont lithium mine due to concerns about "too much dust on the roads". NSS.

This is utter, utter, nonsense that you, personally, have had debunked here repeatedly yet you keep posting it.

Why?

Piedmont has been held back by their own incompetence, going back far before 2021, and documented, multiple times, in detail, specifically to you, in this thread.

In fact, once again, your own source debunks your own claims but you don't appear to have bothered to read it

The company, however, has not applied for a state mining permit or a necessary zoning variance in Gaston County, just west of Charlotte, despite telling investors since 2018 that it was on the verge of doing so

Nobody "denied" them anything, again from YOUR source it mentions board members said they MAY block the deal because Piedmont has not bothered to TELL them any of a slew of info (including pollution) the project might cause... but until permits are filed they don't even need to decide that- and they're already 4 years late filing for them.



here's a direct link to the LAST (but hardly the first) time I had to debunk your claims on this, back in May- as I pointed out there I'm both a former shareholder of their company and actually fairly local to the story....virtually nothing you have ever claimed about them besides the name of the company has been accurate.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Small data point - We bought our Model Y in February 2021 for $51,990, today that car on the same configuration is $64,990. We have a LR Model X on order from a year or so ago, and are expecting to use the Model Y as trade-in. Every month, the trade-in value 'expires' and I have to input the...

teslamotorsclub.com

Please stop making up stories that have been pointed out to you as grossly factually untrue.... even worse when you provide sources yourself that debunk your claims.

Also, the board is 7 people not 3 (which YOUR OWN source also pointed out)... and they are all elected in complete opposition to your false claim they are not.

Source debunking THAT claim of yours-

Board of Commissioners | Gaston County, NC

The Board is charged with providing policy direction for the administration of County government and providing for the efficient operation of government services.

www.gastongov.com

Commissioners are elected on a countywide or "at-large" partisan basis to four-year staggered terms but must reside in their respective Township.

I mean... yikes man.

 

[heltok]

Has Tesla’s 2022 met our expectations?

I get the impression that some people think Tesla’s poor performance in 2022 is somehow the result of Musk’s behaviors or Musk selling. While it might have had some impact, 2022 was not a year full of good news and rose parades. Neither for Tesla, nor for the macro environment. Look back a year ago this time and think about what we expected.

• 4680 production in Texas was going to be ramping up fast by now. This has not happened. Lots of equipment, very little if any output.
• Model Y production in Texas and Berlin were going to be complete. We’re getting closer… but shy of the 5k/ week expectations at the moment.
• Deliveries were supposed to be up at least 50%. We’re likely falling a bit short of that too. COVID shutdown in April and slower than expected factory ramps more or less skewed this target.
• The 4680 Model Y from Texas was going to be the wonder car with huge range, huge weight savings, and massive cost reductions. Seems like the promised battery chemistry updates didn’t come through and we’re still looking at energy density comparable to 2170s. Since the 4680 production is still struggling, cost savings are questionable at the moment too.
• Cybertruck was supposed to be launched…. Yes, this was still on the table for 2022 a year ago.
• While FSD Beta “Full Release” is out, Robotaxi and it’s promises are still seemingly at least another couple years out, nor does it appear likely FSD is in a state where it’ll drive revenue in a huge way soon.

This is on top of fed increasing rates, literal war, huge energy crisis in Europe, Chinese economic and political instability.

While I still think Tesla is an A+ company, 2022 was clearly a C- sort of year And coming into 2022, we were priced for an A+ year and lets be honest, most of us expected it. If 2023 is a C- sort of year, it’s likely we’re not going to see any big positive swings in the SP regardless of Musk’s “antics” or lack of antics.

People need to own the fact that for Tesla, this hasn’t been an outstanding year even if you remove all of the Musk related news from the picture. We were priced for perfection…. We knew Tesla was priced for perfection. Tesla did fine…. But they were not up to the level of performance we or the investing world expected.

When people claim Musk is responsible for the current state of Tesla stock, they are ignoring dozens of other things which contributed to what has been a less than stellar year for Tesla. I have no idea what the impact of Twitter and Musk’s sales have had on the SP over the past year, but the current rut is largely driven by missed expectations. If Musk was selling shares on the back of the 1.6-1.7m deliveries which most here expected, it would be a non-event. Likewise, if we were eyeballing the Cybertruck order forms and Tesla was taking deliveries. Or even if the 4680 was flying out the door at Texas… just that would be huge.

I’m certainly underwater far more than most here and I’ve lost too much to admit to my wife in short term options. But I’m not nearly as worried about Musk‘s stock sales as I am about these other more fundamental things.

This is how I choose to see it.
1. Where were Tesla at the start of 2022?
2. Where are Tesla at the end of 2022?

Given 1 and 2, was it a good year or not?

Are production rates a lot higher? Yes. Are margins higher? Yes. Has FSD made huge improvements? Yes, it went from narrow to wide release, it improved greatly, competition nowhere to be seen. Is there any meaningful competition on the radar? Maybe BYD, the rest is floundering. Toyota is a dud. VW is having huge issues. Did they make huge progress on Optimus? It went from a concept to an alpha prototype that could do meaningful tasks in factory in one year. DOJO? 6x cost savings over A100. Megapack factory in Lathrop soon ready to make 35GWh/year. Debt repaid in ful even while ramping, making new products in one of the roughest times in the company's history with wars and plagues.

The rest is noise. Sure there were promises and expectations that were not met. There were unexpected shutdown. Shipping costs varied a lot. People made fuss about Elon and twitter. Noise. What matters is where they are and which speed and in which direction they are going.

 

[thesmokingman]

I want to see that 1 year chart comparison again by the end of the year.

CNBC trashing Tesla really hard. One guy said that he was considering buying the stock.

Lmao, when a short seller tells you not to buy a particular stock... hmm? Things that make you go hmm right?

 

[ElectricIAC]

What could be the reason why these cars are covered?

View attachment 885517

Maybe a new paint process or new colors?

 

[The Accountant]

WAG: Local delivery planned at Giga Texas before EOQ? So the car's prepped for delivery now, and they don't want it to get dusty?

I should have mentioned this, the location is Shanghai. I don't believe I have ever seen covered cars there in the logistics lot before today.

 

[Thekiwi]

It's only been up 20 min so I think the latest video from Wu Wa is 'news'. Haven't read any posts here today yet.

His comments are often rather badly translated so has been misunderstood in the past but here is the latest one.

"In December, Tesla's Shanghai factory was rumored to have stopped production, shortened working hours and stopped production in the last week. Tesla also dismissed the rumor. What is the real situation? One or two things can be seen from the field observation. Of course, through inquiry, we know that since Monday, the Shanghai factory has reduced production by about 30%, but the working hours of workers have not changed. Seen from the outside area of the factory, it is still busy. At the port, there are trucks carrying Tesla and the signs on the vehicles are EU. From these circumstances, we can roughly judge that the current production reduction may be the supply of the Chinese market. Perhaps, as everyone judges, the sales in the Chinese market tend to be weak. What do you think?"

“…the Shanghai factory has reduced production by about 30%…”

So the 20% reduction reported by Reuters was called false by Tesla….because actual production was down MORE than reported?