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Another big question is, where will they get their battery supply for Mexico-assembled Semi's? The battery requirement is on the order of 100 GWh/yr, that's a very large battery plant. So 4680s from Tesla? I'm only dimly aware of 3rd-party lithium battery manufacturing in Mexico. But a quick google shows this: (company HQ is in El Paso, TX but manufacture in MX)

There is potential to manufacture lithium batteries in Mexico | TECMA.com

The Tecma Group of Companies
US Corporate Headquarters​
2000 Wyoming Avenue​
El Paso, Texas​
Haven't the last 2 Gigafactories also expected to build batteries on site? Is there a reason that wouldn't also be the case in Mexico. One of Elon's business philosophies was to manufacture where most efficient based on final destination or something to that effect. The thinking was along the lines of building the factories near the natural resources needed and the final destination for deliveries.

  • Does Mexico have Lithium near the proposed site?
  • Is Tecma large enough to handle the demand?
  • It would seem to be a logical market for the rumored Model 2.


"The 4 main countries that produce lithium are Australia, Chile, China, and Argentina. In South America, the borders of Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia create what is colloquially referred to as the Lithium Triangle as it is believed that about 75% of Earth’s lithium deposits are located in this region. "

Could a South American Gigafactory be far off? If the IRA has a significant impact on Tesla's bottom line, it may be a while. But, what are the chances that Chile, Argentina or Bolivia could establish their own "local made" incentives? Paging @unk45.
 
"biggest financial crisis ever".... Nope. Not even close. This is nothing like a $600k mortgage being $300k underwater. This is a $30k loan being $5000 underwater on average... when the owner is compelled (though less so by cardealershipguy's example) to pay it back even when it is underwater. So most of the loans will still be paid back. For example, Ford's debt situation is better now than it was two years ago. And most of the consumers who bought overpriced cars, had to put money down when then sale price was above MSRP. This situation the cardealershipguy is talking about is going to be more a problem for used car lots and their finance companies, a business that he is in.
Maybe the biggest financial crisis ever for the major captive finance units of legacy auto. You put the high prices that were paid, a possible coming recession and a strong shift to the preference for EV's all together and it could be a major crisis for them.
 
I understand Troy's data on the backlog is more art than science. His numbers show the backlog dropping faster than the rate of production in the US for the month of November. Concerning. Let's hope it is people delaying due to the tax credit and not Elon's antics.

Yeah... sure... $7,500...
I'll believe it when I see it...
(critical minerals anyone???)
 
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I didn’t meam to imply that Elon lied when he twice said he finished selling, so the Boy Who Cried Wolf was not the best comparison. But I think Elon realizes such an announcement/reassurance does not carry much weight anymore.

Perhaps a better analogy might be "peeling an onion": You don't know how many layers there are when you start, it involves shedding lots of tears, and it's already got its own website (not "theonion.com" though). ;)

Cheers!
 
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I understand Troy's data on the backlog is more art than science. His numbers show the backlog dropping faster than the rate of production in the US for the month of November. Concerning. Let's hope it is people delaying due to the tax credit and not Elon's antics.

This whole analysis was thorougly debunked on Sasha Yanshin Live last week. The difference is now that Tesla sells "inventory cars", people no long need to place an order (reservation) to buy a Tesla car. These sales never go through the reservation system, hence no "backlog" of orders.

So, the order backlog shrinks as a higher proportion of production of sales is delivered from inventory. This is natural, good for business, and increases car sales: No customer wants to wait for their shiny new Tesla. If a potential customer can buy a car online immediately and take delivery from inventory, that person is much more likely to become an actual customer (and they don't buy a competitor's EV).

TL;dr Our Trojan has a CONSTRUCT VALIDITY problem: Order Backlong is NOT a good proxy for Demand after inventory becomes available for immediate delivery. That's how 90% of cars are sold in the auto market, from inventory not by pre-order. Tesla is transitioning to this method of sales now. Troy has missed the proverbial boat on this change in the way Tesla delivers cars. Soon enough, there will be near-zero backlog, and nearly double the sales.
 
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lets all reflect on the accountability ladder this weekend

ask yourself what step am i on after this past week ... i can answer blame others has been a pretty popular rung

Have a great weekend ... lets make it happen next week :p

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Incredible number of deliveries in Europe. This is a graph of the countries that report daily registrations. It looks like Q4 will have 50% more deliveries than any previous quarter in history. I'm devastated over this news, because this means the SP is dropping another 50%, right?.... /s

 
Per article 36semis currently deployed by pepsi
It's best to go to the source instead of relying on Fredtrek. Of course the source is also suspect but this is what was actually reported:

"PepsiCo said it plans to deploy 15 trucks from Modesto and 21 from Sacramento."


Also there really isn't any confusion about the range capability at heavier loads:

"PepsiCo then will also use the Semis to haul beverages in the "400 to 500 mile range as well," O'Connell said.
 
Here’s the source.

Here's Who Owns Tesla Now That Elon Musk Is Selling Out​

Vanguard has been aggressively buying. It now owns nearly 60% more Tesla stock than it did two years ago. Vanguard continues to be the top buyer of Tesla stock.

And next up is BlackRock, another giant in the ETF industry. The company owns 171 million shares of Tesla, accounting for 5.4% of the company's shares outstanding. BlackRock's iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) is the third-largest holder of Tesla stock after SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ).

And like Vanguard, BlackRock is aggressively adding Tesla shares. Its number of shares held is up nearly 46% in two years' time.


Big institutions now own more than 44% of Tesla's stock. Most of those owners are traditional investment managers. Individuals like Musk only own 14.9%, a vast majority which is Musk himself. The only other large individual investor is Oracle (ORCL) founder Larry Ellison. Public investors like state pensions own the balance of the shares, totaling 41% of the company.

Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence, IBD​



Retail owns zero?
 
I think we can see real value in creating a real challenge to blatantly false media narratives.
Could have been done for a fraction of the cost and no damage to the share price with a small PR department who would actually reply to reporters when contacted. We've seen many stories with "Tesla did not respond", which let the FUD hang in the air unchallenged. Also an active account on ALL social media sites responding the the FUD.
 
Incredible number of deliveries in Europe. This is a graph of the countries that report daily registrations. It looks like Q4 will have 50% more deliveries than any previous quarter in history. I'm devastated over this news, because this means the SP is dropping another 50%, right?.... /s

"We're gonna need a bigger Y axis"
🦈

Question/request to gauge stocks: Anyone driving past Tesla stores - empty, full, in-between? Location - country, state/region, town.

Live cams of Tesla stores empty of cars with queues of customers demanding their Tesla or parking lots full to the brim?

Hard/easy to get demo rides?
 
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Haven't the last 2 Gigafactories also expected to build batteries on site? Is there a reason that wouldn't also be the case in Mexico. One of Elon's business philosophies was to manufacture where most efficient based on final destination or something to that effect. The thinking was along the lines of building the factories near the natural resources needed and the final destination for deliveries.

  • Does Mexico have Lithium near the proposed site?
  • Is Tecma large enough to handle the demand?
  • It would seem to be a logical market for the rumored Model 2.


"The 4 main countries that produce lithium are Australia, Chile, China, and Argentina. In South America, the borders of Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia create what is colloquially referred to as the Lithium Triangle as it is believed that about 75% of Earth’s lithium deposits are located in this region. "

Could a South American Gigafactory be far off? If the IRA has a significant impact on Tesla's bottom line, it may be a while. But, what are the chances that Chile, Argentina or Bolivia could establish their own "local made" incentives? Paging @unk45.
I reply with 'Perhaps'. The largest potential market, the best supply of qualified engineers and skilled workers is probably Brazil with parts of Minas Gerais State the easiest lithium and other elements source locations, and Itajubá is Airbus helicopter, plus Embraer in São José dos Campos, SP plus Mercedes Benz in Rio de Janeiro State. These core locations are quite near each other and all three States are eager to support new foreign investment, especially since most of the political disarray has diminished (obviously, just like the US and most of the rest of the world, the political situations are far less stable than they were a few years ago.

It does make sense to have one of the next GFs in one of these States, not least because the alleged forthcoming Mexican GF can easily cooperate with a Brazilian plant, including production cooperation with, say, Vale, and both Mexico and Brazil having trade agreements with Mercosur. There are, of course, stresses in those relations too.

Overall the combination of Mercosur and Mexico makes a rapid Brazilian investment in the near future almost irresistible. Greatly enhancing that is the desire of the new Federal government to accelerate renewables.

FWIW the clear change in optimism from me is related to both the incoming environmental priorities and the new government desire to mend frayed fences. Not easy, but the combination of Tesla and SpaceX makes the Brazilian aerospace and industrial sector drool.

With the world's largest concentrations of helicopters and turboprop aircraft, plus attractive BEV markets the prospects for labor supply plus raw materials become powerful attractions.
Few people outside Brazil (other than aerospace people) understand the reality.

The basis of 'perhaps' is that domestic Brazil newspapers, TV news and columnists have suddenly become Musk skeptics. The banning of journalists drove a frenzy that had not previously been evident here. rescinding the ban is not helping at all. Given the topic of this post this is directly relevant to how Tesla and SpaceX will be received in Brazil. This may dissipate soon, although that seems unlikely without a cessation of political commentary from the source.
 
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"We're gonna need a bigger Y axis"
🦈

Question/request to gauge stocks: Anyone driving past Tesla stores - empty, full, in-between? Location - country, state/region, town.

Live cams of Tesla stores empty of cars with queues of customers demanding their Tesla or parking lots full to the brim?

Hard/easy to get demo rides?
I don't know if that is helpful with two weeks to go. Our locally delivery center is always bursting at the seems the last two weeks of EVERY quarter, and somehow they are always completely empty come the 1st.
 
Could have been done for a fraction of the cost and no damage to the share price with a small PR department who would actually reply to reporters when contacted. We've seen many stories with "Tesla did not respond", which let the FUD hang in the air unchallenged. Also an active account on ALL social media sites responding the the FUD.
Such a simple solution.
I suspect Elon has much more knowledge than us though, so we see his “solution” as flawed.
On the diagram read “we” not “you”
0B142E2B-44FF-48B4-BEB7-EC5079216923.jpeg
 
SP dropped this week and some thought it was mass exit of institutes and retail…. And that wasn’t the case

Tesla has more output so backlog will naturally drop . Not concerned for 4Q and dynamics will change with IRA in 2 weeks Cheers!!

The number of demand levers that Tesla has available is just crazy. If, and that's a BIG IF, there was a demand problem in the USA, one thing they could do without changing price would simply be to release the new colors to the USA. I would snap up a Quicksilver or one of those new dark red Model 3's or Y's in a hurry.