Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Big Time]

Didn't we already talk about the $420 discount already?

I’m just trying to be obnoxious

 

[Big Time]

PepsiCo is using 36 Tesla Semis in its fleet and is upgrading facilities for more in 2023, exec says

PepsiCo plans to roll out 100 Tesla Semis in 2023, when it will start making deliveries, the company's top supply chain official told Reuters.

www.cnbc.com

Looks like Pepsi is already operating 36 Semis?
@Troy you adding these in to spreadsheet

 

[SmokyPeat]

Looking forward to today's TSLA trading for the first time in way too long. I think we'll get some sense of the overhang we've been suffering through.

 

[MikeC]

Up 4% in Germany

TESLA INC. DL -,001 Aktie | Aktienkurs | Chart | A1CX3T | US88160R1014

$meta_description instrument detailpage

www.ls-tc.de

 

[H Mak]

Spent a nice weekend in Copenhagen. Christmas markets, Tivoli gardens etc. Cool city. Ordered a taxi from the hotel to the airport. Tesla Model 3 turned up. Good start to the week

 

[Max Plaid]

Right on!

You all remember that prediction that TSLA shares would be at $1200 by the end of 2022, right?

A few months ago I noted that TSLA was headed for $150. Damn, I saw a lot of THUMBS DOWN and LAUGHING FACEs. I had sold ALL at $230 in Oct and it wasn't an easy choice having held it and believed in it since 2014. when I bought my first Tesla Model S. But sentiment rules over fundamentals. In fact, my wife still owns some TSLA. She insists, "I'll be damned if I sell it a LOW $157." My response is, "You'll be more damned when it is at $130, where it is headed."

Tesla makes a great product and has a fantastic foundation in its production and its charging network. I've been there since the beginning and I'm on my 8th Tesla. But, there isn't going to be anything positive happening until well into 2023 (CYBRTRK and SEMI), unless the following bleeding issues are addressed by either the Board or the public. Musk won't be addressing them. He seems to be too busy tweeting away our earnings.

1. Tesla still the top EV brand in the U.S., but its lead is shrinking

Despite Tesla sitting atop the EV leaderboard in the U.S., new data show competitors are chipping away at its lead.
OBJECTS IN THE MIRROR ARE CLOSER THAN THEY APPEAR. And much more affordable to the common man.
Demand slowing.
Tesla to cut production at Shanghai plant amid slow demand (TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

As China tensions grow this will only get worse.

2. Musk to use TSLA money to shore up TWITTER
Elon Musk gambled big on Twitter. Tesla is going to pay the price.
Old news. There's been a second withdrawal. Third? Fourth?

Musk has been near bankruptcy before. It's not a big deal to him. In fact, I would say it's a stimulant. Must is a self-admitted Bipolar. He's stubborn and confrontation and risk turn him on. And the more money and status you have, the more you come to believe in yourself and the more stubborn you become and the more risks you take, like buying a $4M loaf of bread for $44M and then trashing the advertisers. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely - Lord Acton 1902 Good luck with any hopes of changing that behavior. Grandmother always said, "Never try to teach a pig to sing, it just frustrates you and irritates the pig."

3. Elon Musk claims the risk of his assassination is ‘quite significant.

Elon Musk claims risk of his assassination is ‘quite significant’

4. Some other info I shared with my veteran's investment group.

These last quarter delivery numbers are going to be a disaster for Tesla, adding to their diminishing reputation as Twitter's big brother with deep pockets, and Musk's motor mouth.

Bean Counter's Desperation:
a) Prices reduced $3750.
b) Tesla has authorized its sales staff to offer 10,000 free Supercharging miles to customers who take delivery by the end of the month as it tries to create some urgency for buyers to take delivery. As we have recently reported, Tesla is having some rare demand issues lately – especially in the Uni... View the article. Tesla (TSLA) offers 10,000 free Supercharging miles to buyers as it tries to create urgency View the article + more on Flipboard. https://flip.it/Lb.gte

Why would any financially rational human being buy a Tesla in December when, as of Jan 1, the purchase will be eligible for a $7500 government tax credit?

They are trying desperately to reduce that impact, but I believe most buyers have made up their minds and canceled orders. I did. Better to lose $250 than $7500. I canceled before the rebate, as I am sure most did.

Although it is tempting to buy TSLA, at its current low of $157, any rational human being would say, 'why buy low when you can buy lower?' I can envision it dropping to $130 a share. Not a great time to buy when most analysts are adjusting their price targets downward.

Tesla is in trouble. Image, Twitteridge, batteries, production, Musk mouth, backlog disappearing, and sales dropping.
Are Tesla sales declining? Of course, they are. As production ramps up, the backlog is declining rapidly.

The company potentially now has less than 300,000 orders (globally) for the first time this year. (see chart)​

Tesla fell to sixth from fifth in the rankings of most-shopped luxury brands, with 12% of all luxury shoppers considering a Tesla – down 3 percentage points from Q2 2022 and notably the largest quarter-over-quarter loss for any luxury brand.

OK, Ok, Cathie Wood, the national investor, just bought $11M in TSLA shares.
And her ARK fund just lost $1.11 billion for her investors with every stock going down.
I tend to do the opposite of what Cathie Wood is doing!

TSLA has great potential. It's just not now.

Everything in the market is down right now as we, the common person pay (in inflation) for our stimulus checks and for the $37 billion given away in 2018 in tax breaks to the top 10%. Hey, when you borrow, you eventually have to pay or is that when the wealthy borrow, YOU eventually have to pay. Robinhood in reverse. Rob from the poor and give to the rich. See the data. It's a BIG BILL for US to pay (I don't suspect there are too many 1%ers on this forum).

So, that BIG BILL is going to lead us into a session, even though it might be a mild one. IMHO, don't expect it to ease before mid-2023.

There will be plenty of good stock opportunities that will recover quicker than TSLA when the time comes and there will probably be volatility until the interest raises cease. (Until WE are finished paying THEIR bill). I was accused of promoting SGML, where I put most of my TSLA dollars, but there are others.
Hey, why not sell the milk when it is souring, and you can get the cow that is producing lots of fresh? Granted SGML has taken a hit with the market downturn, but it will be quick to recover. I just bought more.

I trust I will get back into TSLA at some point. In the meantime, so much for the ride-it-out BS, I will be looking to make some good green elsewhere.

I'm anticipating a considerable number of THUMPS DOWN AND LAUGHING faces. To each their own. Just my opinion. So be it.
What does Musk call it? FREE SPEECH. I'll be back in another quarter, and hopefully, it won't be your portfolio that has the thumbs-down and sad faces.

You got a disagree from me because you used the TSLAQ argument that "Tesla's market-share is declining", which you then compound with "and sales dropping". Last time I looked, Tesla is hitting new production and sales records with every successive quarter, and there is no "ev market", there's only the car market, and Tesla's are of that continues to grow

And yes, perhaps US deliveries will suffer this quarter due to some folks hanging-out for the IRA incentives, but what will be the net effect of that, maybe perhaps better Q1 deliveries than expected? Doh!

 

[elasalle]

Just saw an ad for GM energy with a mega pack concept…. Competition is ahead in ads

 

[JupiterMan]

Right on!

You all remember that prediction that TSLA shares would be at $1200 by the end of 2022, right?

A few months ago I noted that TSLA was headed for $150. Damn, I saw a lot of THUMBS DOWN and LAUGHING FACEs. I had sold ALL at $230 in Oct and it wasn't an easy choice having held it and believed in it since 2014. when I bought my first Tesla Model S. But sentiment rules over fundamentals. In fact, my wife still owns some TSLA. She insists, "I'll be damned if I sell it a LOW $157." My response is, "You'll be more damned when it is at $130, where it is headed."

Tesla makes a great product and has a fantastic foundation in its production and its charging network. I've been there since the beginning and I'm on my 8th Tesla. But, there isn't going to be anything positive happening until well into 2023 (CYBRTRK and SEMI), unless the following bleeding issues are addressed by either the Board or the public. Musk won't be addressing them. He seems to be too busy tweeting away our earnings.

1. Tesla still the top EV brand in the U.S., but its lead is shrinking

Despite Tesla sitting atop the EV leaderboard in the U.S., new data show competitors are chipping away at its lead.
OBJECTS IN THE MIRROR ARE CLOSER THAN THEY APPEAR. And much more affordable to the common man.
Demand slowing.
Tesla to cut production at Shanghai plant amid slow demand (TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

As China tensions grow this will only get worse.

2. Musk to use TSLA money to shore up TWITTER
Elon Musk gambled big on Twitter. Tesla is going to pay the price.
Old news. There's been a second withdrawal. Third? Fourth?

Musk has been near bankruptcy before. It's not a big deal to him. In fact, I would say it's a stimulant. Must is a self-admitted Bipolar. He's stubborn and confrontation and risk turn him on. And the more money and status you have, the more you come to believe in yourself and the more stubborn you become and the more risks you take, like buying a $4M loaf of bread for $44M and then trashing the advertisers. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely - Lord Acton 1902 Good luck with any hopes of changing that behavior. Grandmother always said, "Never try to teach a pig to sing, it just frustrates you and irritates the pig."

3. Elon Musk claims the risk of his assassination is ‘quite significant.

Elon Musk claims risk of his assassination is ‘quite significant’

4. Some other info I shared with my veteran's investment group.

These last quarter delivery numbers are going to be a disaster for Tesla, adding to their diminishing reputation as Twitter's big brother with deep pockets, and Musk's motor mouth.

Bean Counter's Desperation:
a) Prices reduced $3750.
b) Tesla has authorized its sales staff to offer 10,000 free Supercharging miles to customers who take delivery by the end of the month as it tries to create some urgency for buyers to take delivery. As we have recently reported, Tesla is having some rare demand issues lately – especially in the Uni... View the article. Tesla (TSLA) offers 10,000 free Supercharging miles to buyers as it tries to create urgency View the article + more on Flipboard. https://flip.it/Lb.gte

Why would any financially rational human being buy a Tesla in December when, as of Jan 1, the purchase will be eligible for a $7500 government tax credit?

They are trying desperately to reduce that impact, but I believe most buyers have made up their minds and canceled orders. I did. Better to lose $250 than $7500. I canceled before the rebate, as I am sure most did.

Although it is tempting to buy TSLA, at its current low of $157, any rational human being would say, 'why buy low when you can buy lower?' I can envision it dropping to $130 a share. Not a great time to buy when most analysts are adjusting their price targets downward.

Tesla is in trouble. Image, Twitteridge, batteries, production, Musk mouth, backlog disappearing, and sales dropping.
Are Tesla sales declining? Of course, they are. As production ramps up, the backlog is declining rapidly.

The company potentially now has less than 300,000 orders (globally) for the first time this year. (see chart)​

Tesla fell to sixth from fifth in the rankings of most-shopped luxury brands, with 12% of all luxury shoppers considering a Tesla – down 3 percentage points from Q2 2022 and notably the largest quarter-over-quarter loss for any luxury brand.

OK, Ok, Cathie Wood, the national investor, just bought $11M in TSLA shares.
And her ARK fund just lost $1.11 billion for her investors with every stock going down.
I tend to do the opposite of what Cathie Wood is doing!

TSLA has great potential. It's just not now.

Everything in the market is down right now as we, the common person pay (in inflation) for our stimulus checks and for the $37 billion given away in 2018 in tax breaks to the top 10%. Hey, when you borrow, you eventually have to pay or is that when the wealthy borrow, YOU eventually have to pay. Robinhood in reverse. Rob from the poor and give to the rich. See the data. It's a BIG BILL for US to pay (I don't suspect there are too many 1%ers on this forum).

So, that BIG BILL is going to lead us into a session, even though it might be a mild one. IMHO, don't expect it to ease before mid-2023.

There will be plenty of good stock opportunities that will recover quicker than TSLA when the time comes and there will probably be volatility until the interest raises cease. (Until WE are finished paying THEIR bill). I was accused of promoting SGML, where I put most of my TSLA dollars, but there are others.
Hey, why not sell the milk when it is souring, and you can get the cow that is producing lots of fresh? Granted SGML has taken a hit with the market downturn, but it will be quick to recover. I just bought more.

I trust I will get back into TSLA at some point. In the meantime, so much for the ride-it-out BS, I will be looking to make some good green elsewhere.

I'm anticipating a considerable number of THUMPS DOWN AND LAUGHING faces. To each their own. Just my opinion. So be it.
What does Musk call it? FREE SPEECH. I'll be back in another quarter, and hopefully, it won't be your portfolio that has the thumbs-down and sad faces.

I just hold and DCA as I continue to buy more TSLA stock from income.

As a long term investor I have no desire to increase the risk to my capital by trying to time the market. Most of what you describe are possible events outside of Tesla's control, as such it's like rolling a dice, you may be lucky or you may be unlucky,

The lucky ones always gloat, but we rarely here from those who time things wrong - there is always an inherent bias in such things. But I do not position my investment thesis around other people getting lucky or striving for my own dose of luck.

Over time the macro and other things will change, and many will be unlucky timing their way back in.

Just hold and DCA. ignore the short term noise.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Look at that volume in the Pre-market after just 35 minutes:

Tesla Inc TSLA:NASDAQ​

After Hours: Last | 4:35 AM EST​

156.85

+6.62 (+4.41%)​

Volume 667,037​

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Rumours about future Model S and Model 3 production in Giga Berlin:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604762835636359170

 

[Troy]

The next big controversy of the weekend has been @Troy 's worry that offering 10,000 free supercharger miles means there's a big demand problem in the U.S. Realize that most purchasers won't use but a fraction of those miles and the financial hit will take place in 2023. His concern is that EV-CPO numbers are only showing one instance per configuration type per location. So, I looked at a state with only one sales location, Hawaii. Here's a link to the Honolulu Ala Moana new inventory, which showed 14 Model Ys as I wrote this piece. Then I went to EV-CPO and limited the search to Model Ys in this state and came up with 14 as the available vehicles. They matched. Further, I saw two pairs of Model Ys that were identical.

Yes, I saw that duplicate too. There are 14 Model Ys in Hawaii and 2 of them are duplicates. However, elsewhere in the US with hundreds of Teslas, there is not a single duplicate. Interestingly, the UK and Canada inventory pages also have a ton of duplicates. Therefore it looks like filtering out duplicates is not a universal setting on Tesla's New Inventory web pages but it is selective and covers almost all of the US. Can you check other places like California, New York, Texas, etc., and try to find duplicates? If 2 out of 14 cars are duplicates, there should be a ton of them everywhere.

I have asked people on Twitter to check. Many people did and they agreed that duplicates are not listed.

 

[NicoV]

Tesla will need a production line for the Roadster too. It would make sense to have a flexible production line for low volume cars, i.e. Model S, Model X and Roadster. No doubt there are other cars planned for a specific target group (e.g. Campers) that will never have the volume of Model Y and 3. But the combined volumes are probably high enough to warrant a production line on each continent.
That said, I’d love to have a new Berlin-built Model S.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Rumours about future Model S and Model 3 production in Giga Berlin:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604762835636359170

Falling demand for the MIG Model Y. What a bummer. This sad.

/s

 

[elasalle]

Rumours about future Model S and Model 3 production in Giga Berlin:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604762835636359170

I think Fremont can handle S/X volumes…they could just do local assembly like in past( in holland)
I thought Europe wants a hatch back?

 

[NooB_cat]

I can't remember the last time TSLA was up this much in pre-market... a good omen!?

(I guess the main positive news is that it looks like (from the poll results) EM will be stepping down as CEO of the social media company therefore less of an overhang. Or, is it the confirmed Berlin/Texas production rates)

 

[EVMeister]

I think Fremont can handle S/X volumes…they could just do local assembly like in past( in holland)
I thought Europe wants a hatch back?

RHD countries such as the UK haven't received their Plaids or new LR Model S / X yet and you can't currently order a new Model S / X here. Just put a reservation in for one without a clear date for when to expect it. It has only just arrived in Europe for LHD regions. Whilst there's much lower demand for this compared to Model 3 and Y (and any future small hatchback), the demand is still there and it's a high margin product. I think it makes sense for Tesla to have some production capacity for these outside of Fremont.

 

[ToTheStars]

Rumours about future Model S and Model 3 production in Giga Berlin:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604762835636359170

I wonder if the new production lines will include the same single castings for the front and the back for the Model 3, like the Model Y already has.

 

[Favguy]

Rumours about future Model S and Model 3 production in Giga Berlin:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604762835636359170

Oh wow, I love my S, but would love the better body quality this would undoubtable bring. Germanic panel alignment and gaps and better paintwork in new exotic colours!!. One can only dream...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Poll just closed. Final results:

Elon Musk @elonmusk​

​

Should I step down as head of Twitter? I will abide by the results of this poll.​

• Yes 57.5%
• No 42.5%

17,502,391 votes·Final results​

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Dec 19, 2022 06:24 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$157.50 +7.27 (+4.84%)
Pre-Market Volume	1,856,795
Pre-Market High	$158.2 (05:55:50 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$152.55 (04:00:00 AM)

QQQ is +0.50% right now (positive macros)

GL2ALL!

 

[jerry33]

Tesla will need a production line for the Roadster too. It would make sense to have a flexible production line for low volume cars, i.e. Model S, Model X and Roadster. No doubt there are other cars planned for a specific target group (e.g. Campers) that will never have the volume of Model Y and 3. But the combined volumes are probably high enough to warrant a production line on each continent.
That said, I’d love to have a new Berlin-built Model S.

Campers will go on the Semi production line.