Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cricketman]

I see.

So you bought higher and sold when your shares were $3,000,000 cheaper?

No, the current value of the shares is now $5m less than what I paid for them

I have only ever sold TSLA shares twice. At the end of 2020, I sold $1m worth to buy a house at post-split average of $200 (These shares I bought at $12). And at the peak 1 year ago, I sold $1m at $400, but then bought them all back at $300. In hindsight, a little too early...

 

[The Accountant]

Wildcards:
1) Announcement of a totally new model (maybe Mexico built van?)

I have meaning to make this point over the past month and your first wildcard prompted me to post.
A development pipeline is extremely important to investors as it allows them to assess future performance. Analysts use this to develop future cash flows from which their price targets are developed. You see this with the Pharma industry; they update their drug development pipeline often. As drugs move from development to commercialization, they continuously add more new drug candidates to their pipeline and communicate it.

Tesla's auto development pipeline up until a few months ago had 3 products: Semi, Cybertruck and Roadster. When the Cybertruck launches, Tesla will only have the roadster in the development pipeline. In 2023, they need to add a new auto product to the pipeline. I would love to see Tesla announce a product reveal date during the January earnings call.

 

[thx1139]

I don't think just hitting record P&D levels will be viewed as positive. Tesla will need to meet / beat analyst delivery estimates for it to be a positive.

Dont even think records will help. Will take 1 or 2 quarters to see if Elon is indeed destroying brand.

 

[jkirkwood001]

I have not and will not sell a single share, my net worth went up exponentially but i never really viewed that as a guarantee and was prepared for a 50% drop as i knew i had nothing but time on my side. Tesla is no doubt well positioned to dominate and is clearly decades ahead of everyone else. All this noise will pass and we all know where its headed.

We joined TMC on the same day, @M|S|M MYP, and my situation and perspective mirrors yours.

I agree: HODL.

 

[JRP3]

Successful investing has lot of parallels with religion
You must totally believe and you must have blind faith to go through extreme adversity

Possibly the worst investing advice I've ever seen. Never ignore reality when investing.

 

[The Accountant]

TSLA could fall to $50/share with a PE of 15 and yet it wouldn't impact Tesla at all.

. .and it wouldn't impact this long-term holder as I would still have the same number of shares.

 

[Singuy]

Without Elon's "help" we would't be here. Chicken was right, but it was luck from my point of view and not foreseeable.

It doesn't really matter what the reason is. If someone calls for a over 60% draw down as a Tesla bull and hits that target, despite fully understanding the fundamentals, then credit goes to where credit is due. Like I said, there are lots of numbers between 340 and 140 and the lower number he picks, the least likely is going to happen as the odds are exponentially more against his favor. This is why the more out of the money calls and puts you buy, the riskier it is..and that risk level is not linear.

 

[TrendTrader007]

What we are experiencing is a climax run to downside instead of upside
it is good that it will drop rapidly as much as it wants to, and then exhaust itself
Once the selling is done, then we can go up

The faster the selling gets over the better, so I welcome it

 

[30seconds]

I have meaning to make this point over the past month and your first wildcard prompted me to post.
A development pipeline is extremely important to investors as it allows them to assess future performance. Analysts use this to develop future cash flows from which their price targets are developed. You see this with the Pharma industry; they update their drug development pipeline often. As drugs move from development to commercialization, they continuously add more new drug candidates to their pipeline and communicate it.

Tesla's auto development pipeline up until a few months ago had 3 products: Semi, Cybertruck and Roadster. When the Cybertruck launches, Tesla will only have the roadster in the development pipeline. In 2023, they need to add a new auto product to the pipeline. I would love to see Tesla announce a product reveal date during the January earnings call.

They have now added the robotaxi / lower cost model to the pipeline.

I would still appreciate master plan part III

 

[tslalala]

So far the shareholders have been sliced in half, and more.

Yeah, Darth Maul didn't die before killing Qui-Gon Jinn. You're right - we've all been more than sliced in half so far, and continue to get sliced more daily. Our stubbornness is killing us. I wish I had more discipline earlier this year in preserving capital (and not being married or overly in love with a stock).

 

[elasalle]

Chick has the degrees and work experience AND put his money where his mouth is.... Just what the hell is this "luck" thing you talk of? Explain how he was lucky??? Just be damn happy he bought back in.
EDIT: And I don't think this Twitter excuse is the reason. I side with Chick. The Twitter Bullsh!t is at most is noise. Peon taking billions out just made it easy on the bears.

what degrees and work experience? I thought he was a pilot?

Anyway degress (does/doesn't) matter in Wall Street - it's a level playing field and he has definitely acquired trading skills.
He sold for macro related items and did kinda sell at the top (good for him).

However, repeat after me - " Without Elon selling all year long" - we would never have been at $140. cheers!!

+ we need to survive 8-9 more trading days ...
+ can't feel like victim and be mad at Elon selling either .. but maybe there were better ways to do it. ...

 

[ElectricIAC]

Yeah, Darth Maul didn't die before killing Qui-Gon Jinn. You're right - we've all been more than sliced in half so far, and continue to get sliced more daily. Our stubbornness is killing us. I wish I had more discipline earlier this year in preserving capital (and not being married or overly in love with a stock).

Death of a thousand cuts?

 

[The Accountant]

What we are experiencing is a climax run to downside instead of upside
it is good that it will drop rapidly as much as it wants to, and then exhaust itself
Once the selling is done, then we can go up

The faster the selling gets over the better, so I welcome it

For you stock technicians, Is there a such thing as a "gap fill" up?

 

[dhanson865]

You’re interpretation is wrong.

Edit @mongo just beat me to it

I sure hope Tesla makes a blog entry for this. Too much confusion, needs a clear answer from Tesla on file.

News | Tesla

www.tesla.com

 

[Nocturnal]

We shouldn't be pissed at Chicken Little. I also appreciate the support from the TMC community. Unfortunately, I'm starting to question if our mutual support has been actually helpful this year or self-deceptive, where we're "enabling" each other to just lose money hand over fist. It's been already shown that we retail investors own a tiny pittance of all TSLA shares. The big institutions have been selling hard this year (largely due to the fake news climate and macro conditions) and we are perhaps the biggest bagholders this year. This has been brutal for me and of course I wish I sold at ~$400 or even $300. I'm not sure now that the best attitude is to "going down sinking with the ship." This unrelenting drop is shaking my confidence in my TSLA position. I wished I sold earlier this year and jumped back in now to over double my number of shares.

I remember what Elon said during previous bear raids on TSLA: ignore them and focus on performing/executing. I really, really hope Tesla has been focused on performing and executing beyond expectations. If Tesla has not meet expectations at the next earnings TSLA will only drop further down and harder.

Of course we shouldn't. He didn't cause this drop. I think it's fair to say that his reasoning for the drop was lucky, but he still wound up getting it right. Most of us bulls were more than happy to claim to be brilliant for riding TSLA up even though many of the catalysts weren't what we expected.

On to more pressing matters. We all wish we had sold back then. But the question now is, if you weren't able to time selling then, why do we expect to be able to time selling now?

I chased leverage for far too long this year and have paid a heavy price. Just shares for me until it's clear that we are on the upswing even if it means missing easy money.

 

[Mengy]

We shouldn't be pissed at Chicken Little. I also appreciate the support from the TMC community. Unfortunately, I'm starting to question if our mutual support has been actually helpful this year or self-deceptive, where we're "enabling" each other to just lose money hand over fist.

Well, let's be clear now, you don't actually LOSE any money unless you sell shares at these very low prices. If you HOLD then it's just another ride on the roller coaster.

 

[wipster]

Huh... Type in a search "does the Model Y" and it fills in "qualify for a tax credit?" Yikes!

When I read the links, I'm still confused. I now realize some of the credit is up for debate and was pushed out to Mar '23 for a decision. Others links say Dec 31 is the deadline for some other part.

If I'm confused, in theory others are too. Is this affecting deliveries in Q4 US? Fact is, the closer the sale to Christmas, the harder the decision because is much easier to wait just a couple more weeks or days even.

I'm actually in that boat having received all the discount notices for Q4. Our MYP is now repaired (picking it up today). So I could trade in now or ? Something tells me now is the better deal tax-wise. Assuming FSD again, the vehicle is over $80K, so any tax relief at all?

Dissonance on The Hill me thinks, stems from the fact that it helps Tesla way more than GM. What's the scoop?

If it were me, I'd take the $3,750 cash discount now instead of waiting for who knows what from the IRS. A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush, wot?

 

[Cryptkeeper]

We shouldn't be pissed at Chicken Little. I also appreciate the support from the TMC community. Unfortunately, I'm starting to question if our mutual support has been actually helpful this year or self-deceptive, where we're "enabling" each other to just lose money hand over fist. It's been already shown that we retail investors own a tiny pittance of all TSLA shares. The big institutions have been selling hard this year (largely due to the fake news climate and macro conditions) and we are perhaps the biggest bagholders this year. This has been brutal for me and of course I wish I sold at ~$400 or even $300. I'm not sure now that the best attitude is to "going down sinking with the ship." This unrelenting drop is shaking my confidence in my TSLA position. I wished I sold earlier this year and jumped back in now to over double my number of shares.

I remember what Elon said during previous bear raids on TSLA: ignore them and focus on performing/executing. I really, really hope Tesla has been focused on performing and executing beyond expectations. If Tesla has not meet expectations at the next earnings TSLA will only drop further down and harder.

Isn't that how it usually works? The big players and institutional investors will buy when all the small investors (we) capitulate and sell our shares at a discount. That's how the rich get richer.

 

[Cherry Wine]

File this under "interesting" with regard to inflation:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605226911117950976

 

[larmor]

The question of the hour is who is selling tsla with continued production, profits and cash flow? Because that is always the bellwether for analyzing investments.