This is a troubling post for me to read. First, because TSLA is actually plotting a pattern on its chart that is in no way unique to oversold stocks/indexes during a market meltdown as we have seen this before and we are seeing it on other stocks right now. And secondly, because the bottom of the 2008/2009 meltdown of the DJI left the exact same pattern........one that was clear enough that I had called the bottom before-hand and acted accordingly.........and yet I did not act accordingly with my TSLA shares this time because I let all the 'noise' of life get in the way despite looking for a similar opportunity over the last decade. It should have been clear that we would be trading here, and I missed it. I will take the 'stoic' road as
@Queeg500 often reminds us to do. It was MY fault that I didn't sell enough shares to put some more money on the sidelines when TSLA was grossly over-priced. It was MY fault that I didn't sell some shares on the way down when the rest of life was too noisy for me to pay closer attention, and when I thought TSLA as an ETF would outperform other stocks in a meltdown even though it doesn't pay a dividend. I will not be too proud to say Chicken Genius and others were right, and I was wrong. And I will also say that
@TrendTrader007 is looking at some very relative data and sharing it with the rest of the board. And I won't point a finger at Elon and blame him for the actions I didn't take. And I certainly won't point a finger at Elon and blame him for a full market meltdown following a laundry list of items that are all individually bad for the market, and that were all put in the pot together at the same time with the flames on high........to include a 2 year global disruption of EVERYTHING at a time when the Market was massively inflated with the value of hindsight, an over-extended period of almost 0% interest followed by massive & rapid rate hikes, the largest transition of global energy sources, power, and wealth the world has ever seen. And of course the inevitable stagnation resulting from the end of 30+ years of US military involvement in the Middle East which had ramped to a $2+ Trillion per year expenditure for the last several administrations (think post-Vietnam on steroids here). No..............of course I am not going to point a finger at Elon for that.
Here is the chart for the DJI for the 2008/2009 crash:
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Here is TSLA today:
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And we might have just a little ways to go yet. But IF history repeats itself, that will be a quick dip, and TSLA should pop its head back above 200 again fairly quickly too.
For comparison, here is Amazon:
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As you can see, AMZN followed a similar pattern and it has already hit a point that would otherwise look like it could only be a random point on the chart until you compared it to the 2007/2008 DJI drop
And here is Netflix:
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Interestingly, NFLX go hit harder and faster than Amazon or Tesla, and it hit its support back in June. But it got beat down in exactly the same way.
I don't want to muddy the waters of this post with my thoughts on how and why there is so much noise around Elon at the moment and how BIG that fight really is (save that for a separate post that is long overdue). I just want to get this out there to show that TSLA is not in any way trading in an unprecedented manner, and that several other BIG stocks are trading in exactly the same way..........without any involvement in Twitter, or any claims that their Boards should be acting in a different manner, etc. It is under circumstances like these that we should all be paying closer attention to the source of some of the noise that caused us to miss some massive opportunities............you know, like doubling the amount of shares you own. And it is during times like these that we need to make those examinations void of Cognitive Dissonance to the best of our abilities. For instance........I have long enjoyed Ross Gerber. Yet, if I had been pouring through all of my old trading notes instead of watching Ross drink Teslaquilla on YouTube while telling the World we should be buying TSLA all the way through the stock price slide because he had it all figured out, I would be in a much better position now. So what does that say about Ross' character that he is now pointing a finger at Elon and the TSLA board instead of looking at the other 3 fingers pointing back at himself. We all make mistakes. But how much we improve going forward is dependent upon how much reflection we have on ALL of the surrounding events, and on our ability to have some accountability for the things that were in our power to notice and to change.
I predict this post will become extremely relevant at the end of another 10-12 year cycle.
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