The stock market is valuing Tesla as a company with a leader they cant trust and doesnt care about the public perception of the company.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Here is Troy's latest update:
Will analyst lower their consensus before the end of quarter?
Will analyst lower their consensus before the end of quarter?
The market is, as usual, irrational and overreacting. There is no indication that Tesla the company is not performing well or Elon and his team are taking the wrong decisions. Combined with heavy shorting and margin calls the irrational emotions of the market are creating a downward squeeze. We all know what happened after the upward squeezes. Are downward squeezes different?
For anyone interested in markets, crises, and financial planning:
Source: https://www.retailinvestor.org/pdf/Bengen1.pdf
Some quotes:
"As an example, let us return to the 1929 retiree. At the end of 1930, as he is about to make his second annual withdrawal, the market has already declined about 30 percent from the end of 1928, and there looks like more trouble ahead. If he reduces his 1930 withdrawal by inflation each year. Over the 10 years from 1958-1967, the stock market returned 12.9 percent a year compounded, while inflation increased at only a measly 1.8 percent a year."
"...the client who retired in 1929 with $500,000 in a retirement fund saw that fund dwindle to less than $200,000 by the end of 1932. Although his withdrawals have also declined from $20,000 in 1929 to $15,300 in 1932, owing to deflation, those withdrawals now equal about 7.6 percent of his portfolio, whereas he began by withdrawing only 4 percent. In this situation, with stocks having per- formed so dismally so early in retire- ment, it may be tempting to switch all investments to bonds in order to salvage what is left of the original capital. But that would be precisely the wrong thing to do! Let us say that on December 31, 1932, after years of withering returns on stocks, our black-hole client demands we reduce the percent-age of stocks in his portfolio. If we eliminate stocks completely, investing only in intermediate-term bonds, his money will be exhausted in 1946, after only 17 more years. If we invest in 25-percent stocks, the money will last till 1950; 50 percent in stocks, 1957. But if we had left the allocation at 75-percent stocks, the client would still have $1.7 million in 1992..."
Side thought:
Source: https://www.retailinvestor.org/pdf/Bengen1.pdf
Some quotes:
"As an example, let us return to the 1929 retiree. At the end of 1930, as he is about to make his second annual withdrawal, the market has already declined about 30 percent from the end of 1928, and there looks like more trouble ahead. If he reduces his 1930 withdrawal by inflation each year. Over the 10 years from 1958-1967, the stock market returned 12.9 percent a year compounded, while inflation increased at only a measly 1.8 percent a year."
"...the client who retired in 1929 with $500,000 in a retirement fund saw that fund dwindle to less than $200,000 by the end of 1932. Although his withdrawals have also declined from $20,000 in 1929 to $15,300 in 1932, owing to deflation, those withdrawals now equal about 7.6 percent of his portfolio, whereas he began by withdrawing only 4 percent. In this situation, with stocks having per- formed so dismally so early in retire- ment, it may be tempting to switch all investments to bonds in order to salvage what is left of the original capital. But that would be precisely the wrong thing to do! Let us say that on December 31, 1932, after years of withering returns on stocks, our black-hole client demands we reduce the percent-age of stocks in his portfolio. If we eliminate stocks completely, investing only in intermediate-term bonds, his money will be exhausted in 1946, after only 17 more years. If we invest in 25-percent stocks, the money will last till 1950; 50 percent in stocks, 1957. But if we had left the allocation at 75-percent stocks, the client would still have $1.7 million in 1992..."
Side thought:
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Great point! The Hornsdale Power Reserve (affectionately known as the Big Banana) paid for itself in 2 years.
Tesla's Big Battery In Hornsdale Earned Back Its Cost In 2 Years, Highlighting Why Renewables Are Beating Coal
Featured Image Credit: TeknOlsun/Instagram Tesla's big battery in Hornsdale has managed to earn back its construction cost in just a little over two years, highlighting once more that renewables are on their way towards beating coal-fired power plants. With such an achievement under its belt...
www.tesmanian.com
Texas and California will both benefit from the output from Lathrop.
While it's not exactly year-to-date, I believe some don't reallize that the down 2/3 figure mentioned by some sources is relative to the all-time intraday high of $414.50 on November 4, 2021. From there the close today is down 66.755%., which is just a tad more than 2/3.
Don’t want Elon to go as CEO, and I think the odds of that happening are low (barring a full Elon meltdown). Without Elon we wouldn’t have the wild ass bets currently underway at Tesla that are poised for huge payoffs eventually (hopefully).
I do however want him to stop doing the things that in my opinion are destroying his own personal brand, and by extension the Tesla brand (we know others here disagree with this opinion, and I again agree to disagree with your opinion as you do with mine).
Some members on here saying stop our bellyaching as it wont lead to anything, but now that more visible long term Tesla bulls (the kind Elon sees online) have started calling him out on the exact same thing - Elon is responding. He isnt responding well yet, but it now is on his radar taking up some mind cycles, and we will see how that shakes out soon I imagine.
Seeing some of his formerly biggest fans/defenders on Wall Street now calling for the board to reign him in (or outright remove him as CEO) hoepfully leads to some introspection for Elon.
I do however want him to stop doing the things that in my opinion are destroying his own personal brand, and by extension the Tesla brand (we know others here disagree with this opinion, and I again agree to disagree with your opinion as you do with mine).
Some members on here saying stop our bellyaching as it wont lead to anything, but now that more visible long term Tesla bulls (the kind Elon sees online) have started calling him out on the exact same thing - Elon is responding. He isnt responding well yet, but it now is on his radar taking up some mind cycles, and we will see how that shakes out soon I imagine.
Seeing some of his formerly biggest fans/defenders on Wall Street now calling for the board to reign him in (or outright remove him as CEO) hoepfully leads to some introspection for Elon.
Paracelsus
Active Member
Actually.....they did.
Tesla's earnings went from negative in 2019 to 5.5 billion in 2021. Tesla absolutely grew into it's valuation. Otherwise, we wouldn't be looking at a Forward PE of 30 right now.
Hahaha yeah the market has ALWAYS valued Tesla as a company with a leader they can't turst and doesn't care about the public perception of the company. When Musk said and he saw a path to 500k unit shipped in 2020...how many trusted his guidance or did they saw it as some kind of stock pumper? What about calling analysts bone headed on the conference call or attacking people who attacked him publicly? Did Elon garnish a lot of trust after funding secured at 420 and then attacks the SEC telling them to S Elon's C?
The stock popped was due to Elon Musk's keeping his promise on guidance and executed exactly according to how he planed it. In fact they reached operating margins higher than expected in a much quicker pace. However now we are in the "Musk is full of *sugar*" phase again with his "seeing Tesla being the most valuable company" and "3 TWH of battery deployment by selling 20m Teslas and energy products, Robotics, FSD"
Like advising them not to get on the boat? Beyond that, what are you looking for?
Apr 3, 2017 $19.90 "Exactly. Tesla is absurdly overvalued if based on the past, but that's irrelevant. A stock price represents risk-adjusted future cash flows."
Oct 4, 2018 $18.79 "If you think Tesla is overvalued compared to probable value of future cash flows, sell. Otherwise, buy."
May 1, 2020 $46.25 "Tesla stock price is too high imo"
Oct 25, 2021 $341.62 "Strange that moved valuation, as Tesla is very much a production ramp problem, not a demand problem" [regarding Hertz]
Nov 4, 2022 $207.47 "well I actually rarely try to convince anyone to invest in Tesla and many times I've recommended people don't invest in Tesla and I've said stock is too high but then people just ignore me and keep buying the stock some reason"
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Yeah, up until October the interest rate argument was pretty reasonable and while it still may be the primary cause of the market and TSLA decline in the last twelve months, there has been an epic decoupling of TSLA and the macros since then. Elon really should acknowledge that before commenting like this in such a snarky manner. This attitude is not really constructive and he really ought to stop picking fights with people in general.
(The one notable other exception in that time is AMZN which still raises my suspicion that much of this has actually been an aggressive bear raid taking advantage of the market having reached two-year lows in October right as opportunities to attack both companies and influence perception arose. And, of course, because TSLA and AMZN alone are the two major outliers in the US options market which together account for about 3 or 4x more trading than everything else combined, and there’s been tight correlation even on a daily basis between the two stocks all year long.)
Irrespective of how much of this is actually his fault, he’s surely aware by now how many people are upset with his behavior and communication, and with a slight bit of effort this could have been greatly ameliorated without really slowing down his progress.
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I believe his estimate is 130k for local deliveries in China for Q4.
But still, that means he's only estimating 22,000 for the remaining two weeks of Dec in China.
2022.44.25.5 installing now to my 2017 X P100DL, not exactly sure what version of FSD this has, but I'll know soon. Seems like it might have 10.69.25? But not sure if that is right...I currently have 10.69.3.1 so that would be stepping *down* if correct.
ref @mongo #386,531
Jan 4, 2017: "You have nothing to worry about my selling shares. First in, last out. I will not be selling any shares for many, many years - not until it is time to fund (the) Mars (base/development project)."
Your first two quotes, by the way, enforce/did enforce my opinion of TSLA. Your last one is one of the 2022 quotes to which I had been referring.
Jan 4, 2017: "You have nothing to worry about my selling shares. First in, last out. I will not be selling any shares for many, many years - not until it is time to fund (the) Mars (base/development project)."
Your first two quotes, by the way, enforce/did enforce my opinion of TSLA. Your last one is one of the 2022 quotes to which I had been referring.
Earnings gain in 2021 was a one-time event going from negative to $5.5B based on Model Y ramp. Going forward, that isn't going to repeat and we can see a more normal 40-50% gain annually in earnings. The $5T in Fed stimulus plus 0% interest rates for two years was also a once-in-a-lifetime event that won't be repeated anytime soon.
Hey all, wanna have some fun? Check out Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit
and read it from the start. Many, if not most of the really outstanding posts are from folks who no longer participate on this thread and that's a real shame. The quality of this thread has diminished in the last year or so and after reading some of these posts I can see why. Miss those folks.
And even though it's your thread @AudubonB (and thank you for assembling it), you too should read it again.
and read it from the start. Many, if not most of the really outstanding posts are from folks who no longer participate on this thread and that's a real shame. The quality of this thread has diminished in the last year or so and after reading some of these posts I can see why. Miss those folks.
And even though it's your thread @AudubonB (and thank you for assembling it), you too should read it again.
No, you read the wrong lineyou drank the latest patron ??
Seeing how negative sentiment is, I'm starting have serious doubt about P&D having any positive effect.
If Elon is going to stick to this "not my problem" attitude, we're gonna have to wait at least a year before the stock is completely decoupled from his personal affairs. Yes, the forward P:E is 25 now, but in a bear market, people prefer to take a "wait and see" approach instead of paying upfront for future growth. Having an inspiring leader surely compels people to take more risks.
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