Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CYBRTRK420]

I've been thinking about the company's timing.
Some have rumored that the Mexico factory announcement will be this Friday, but I am starting to think no way.
Any news this week will be drowned out by the run-up to Christmas, and very quickly forgotten. Tesla ALREADY have an announcement opportunity coming up with the Q4 earnings call.

This is the perfect opportunity for them to
1) announce a new Mexico factory
2) announce a stock buyback

Of course, there are other wildcards, like announcing the model 2 small car, or announcing a completely unexpected van to be built in mexico, but I consider both of these unlikely so early. They are not going to want to steal the cybertruck and semi's thunder.

As someone who has held TSLA for > 7 years, I think right now we are in one of those frequent 'anybody selling now is just nuts' phases. That would be truye if the stock was $400, let alone $150. There are just too many good prospects that are imminent for it to make sense to get out now.
A VERY good time to get in though.

I agree with you about pushing the announcement of GigaMexico to the Q4 Earnings call... Currently we essentially only have the CT and Roadster as undelivered products left, with the CT making quite some progress atm. Roadster is a very exclusive niche-product and not important for the masses. With CT production starting in Q2 2023, the Roadster will be the only undelivered product left.

What would you say: When is the right time to announce or reveal a new upcoming vehicle? Could be a modular van for people and cargo, a compact "Model 2" hatchback for urban markets, a modular gen3 platform with multiple vehicles shown at once? Whatever it is, when is the right time to unveil it?

Looking at Tesla's history it's difficult to create an estimated timeframe how much time passes from product reveal to first delivers, but it will be at least 1.5-2 years. With only the Roadster left in the pipeline from mid 2023, I personally think it is not too far away...

 

[Buckminster]

Elon wants everyone to buy Teslas and non-Tesla EVs (of all political persuasions). One side are more likely to buy an EV than the other.

Let that sink in.

 

[Thekiwi]

 

[jerry33]

Not as popular now but fundamentally they are required at some point for a company to offer financial returns to investors. Otherwise the corporation would just perpetually accumulate cash or shrink the share count via buybacks until one share is left. The ultimate fundamental value comes from distribution of the capital back to shareholders via dividends.

In addition, dividends make stocks much less attractive to shorts. Not only is there an unlimited downside, but the dividends have to be paid.

 

[jerry33]

Effective writing always needs to consider the goal of the communication and the audience. In general writing should be clear and concise, using the simplest combination of the fewest words and sentences necessary to get the job done.

Here the purpose is productive, efficient discussions of Tesla, TSLA and the Investment World.

The audience is a forum with diverse international participants, many of whom use English as a non-native language. English is of course the primary language of Tesla the corporation and the primary shared international language of business, so we use it as a tool. Just as memes, slang and pop culture references can be exclusionary and confusing, frequently using arcane words that aren’t in the top few thousand most common words in modern English vocabulary and convoluted grammatical structures is generally overkill for this forum and tends to be exclusionary and confusing to members, whether current or prospective lurkers, who may have good input but are relatively weak in their knowledge of English. I would like to hear more perspective from Italians and Koreans and Brazilians and not primarily those of us in the UK and former British colonies.

The full breadth and complexity of English prose can be wonderful for literature or in academic settings within English-speaking institutions, but is quite unnecessary for investment discussions where the best dictionary lookup is no dictionary lookup and where ideally a sentence only needs to be read once to be comprehended. It already takes enough time to keep up with this thread.

And it doesn't help that vowels in English are mainly for decoration rather than pronunciation.

 

[avoigt]

View attachment 887434

Well, let's look what Tesla is doing just in Germany:

On LinkedIn Tesla is searching for 1,071 employees in Germany but the majority of jobs are placed by the German Agency for work in Frankfurt a.O. Scaling from 7,000 to 12,000 Giga Berlin and lots of Service, Sales and Delivery across all of Germany

Giga Berlin and lots of Service, Sales and Delivery across all of Germany

Giga Berlin and lots of Service, Sales and Delivery across all of Germany

 

[traxila]

View attachment 887434

Although many will try to spin this as signs of doom, this is business as usual and something that Tesla ‘announces’ once or twice a year. Tesla will continue to hire new people and layoff under performers now and in the future as it has in the past.

 

[aGreenGuy]

I’m not leveraged, I’m in it for the clean disruption, but I hold no MBA. Could someone explain to me to what degree it is a risk that we at some point in the short/mid term future would be forced to sell our stocks at a ridiculously much lower price than today, to some nefarious player(s) that has couped the company by shorting it to hell (apparently possible on a daily basis without consequences, fail to deliver etc).

TIA and cheers to the longs!

 

[Max Plaid]

OK, OT, I know, but finally some good news - did my part for Q4 today, welcome Trillian:

Key points:
- close to flawless build, no gaps, misalignments, a pedant (me),looking carefully, would spot a handful of things that would need to be measured with a micrometer
- build quality is from another planet compared to my previous XP100DL+
- yoke is way more tactile than I expected, was used to it almost immediately and it enables relaxed one-handed driving
- indicator buttons work well except when the wheel is turned, like when you need to show you're exiting a roundabout, hopefully will get used to this (not that anyone else bothers indicating around these parts, but I have my own personal standards)
- was very surprised to get the upgraded larger rear-screen given she's an October build, must have been just been when they changed the part and I got lucky
- big display in the front is amazing and extremely responsive
- the seats are beyond comfortable, it's quieter than the previous, slightly faster and handles better
- auto doors open and close oh so softly

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605537323621441536

 

[Nocturnal]

I’m not leveraged, I’m in it for the clean disruption, but I hold no MBA. Could someone explain to me to what degree it would be possible that we at some point in the short/mid term future would be forced to sell our stocks at a ridiculously much lower price than today, to some nefarious player(s) that has couped the company by shorting it to hell (apparently possible on a daily basis without consequences, fail to deliver etc).

TIA and cheers to the longs!

Extremely difficult. Yes the stock can be driven down, but eventually big players will crack and buy to get the jump on their peers. Even if Tesla were crushed down to a far smaller market cap, a company this size is very hard to takeover. Apparently the largest takeover in history was about 200 billion.

 

[Mengy]

Although many will try to spin this as signs of doom, this is business as usual and something that Tesla ‘announces’ once or twice a year. Tesla will continue to hire new people and layoff under performers now and in the future as it has in the past.

The question is: how will Wall Street perceive this, and will it help the stock or tank it further? This could be interpreted (by some) as a lack in Q4 confidence....

 

[OrthoSurg]

You'll both be right by tomorrow's close.

Anyway, I bet as soon as TSLA rallies 50% and get back to the high, high price of $200 you all are going to change your tune real quick!

How much of a further drop do you expect before a rally? Any TA to it or all the waves got broken?

 

[Singuy]

Some acknowledgment. Perhaps the best you can get out of Musk before SH starts sue him into oblivion.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605501874785751040

 

[UkNorthampton]

Fred/Elec

Tesla is expanding into Turkey, starts hiring

Tesla is expanding its electric vehicle business in Turkey, a market that has been asking for Tesla services for years now.

electrek.co

Seems Turkey expansion…

Tesla is amazing. Utility, long-term planning impressive. Future is bright. Lorries (Semi, HGV) - huge opportunity.

Spoiler: Possible-Roadtrips

If a car can do it, lorries will be able to do it soon. All on Superchargers...

From my home in an unfashionable arm of North-West Europe, I can drive to the Arctic Circle (Honningsvåg, Norway) and Africa now (via Eurotunnel/ferry to France or ferry to Spain, then ferry to North Africa).

Going east, on the south of Europe, I'm limited to the Aegean Sea or Black Sea bordering Ukraine & Turkey (seaside resorts in Romania, Greece or Bulgaria). Northern European Superchargers go east to Russia (but not Russia nor Ukraine yet). Apparently until recently, travel via Russian CCS2 was possible, and may still be. Ukraine had a lot of EVs including Teslas.

Soon I'll be able to drive a bit further east to Asia via Superchargers in Turkey. It's a do-able roadtrip to Istanbul (Asian side) allowing stays in less visited areas if you have time. This is incredible to me, so good. I found Turkish interior roads to be good even in winter, even many years ago, so east of Turkey will be opened up.

I look forward to the future when I have to consider charging adapters after Kazakhstan (currently same as Europe, CCS2), heading to China.

Quicker if I measured from Calais (France after tunnel/ferry), but showing from central England:-
Honningsvåg, Norway: 70° 58′ 43″ North (40 hours driving, 5:01 charging)
Arctic Circle: 66.6° North

Agadir, Morocco: 30.4278° North (33 hours driving + 4:48 charging)
Istanbul, Turkey (Asia) less than 30 hours driving plus 4:45 charging

Having a Tesla has reduced my need for air-flights dependent on fossil fuel, which is one of the reasons I wanted a Tesla. Also useful in case of Iceland volcanoes, strikes, safety recalls on Boeings etc. Takes longer than flying for long routes, maybe not much longer for short ones once you consider security & delays, but means I can carry more stuff with me, I have a vehicle en-route and at the other end leading to cheaper & more varied accommodation or ability to visit more customers/sights.

I firmly believe that electricity prices will reduce, clean air zones will be common.

Electric Heavy Goods Vehicles - huge opportunity.

 

[Snerruc]

All those people screaming to dump MrMusk and bring in someone else, don’t seem to remember he hired and promoted his replacements years ago. They are running the company now. Their function is similar to that of Ms Shotwell at SpaceX. Teslas situation is somewhat analogous to Apple with Jobs and Tim Cook. Cook is an outstanding manager, but Jobs created the ideas that made Apple Apple. Fortunately, for Tesla Musk still exists. Tesla can still go where we can’t imagine because of his ability to see new things and bring them to fruition. How much is that worth? It is worth the earth to me. As far as I am concerned , he is underpaid. Just the opinion of a humble doofus.

 

[Singuy]

George Hotz on space asked Musk about twitters current financial and Musks expectations. He said -3b for 2023 if nothing was done, he now sees cash flow break even but will be difficult. Read the thread for more details.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605447200468631552

 

[TrendTrader007]

How much of a further drop do you expect before a rally? Any TA to it or all the waves got broken?

nobody knows. those who predict share prices correctly are simply lucky. yesterday $130s could be the bottom or TSLA could go down to $100 or $75. makes zero difference to long term outlook which is extremely bright. short term speculation is a very dangerous game and has wiped off fortunes of many. those who believe in long term potential of tesla will do just fine.

 

[JRP3]

But if the pool includes Georgia, it's increased.

Tesla isn't going to get to 7M/year sales in the U.S. by selling on the coasts. It needs to move into the heartland.

Focus on the new ground to be gained, not on small losses on conquered territory.

Look at a population and income distribution map.

 

[elasalle]

I’m not leveraged, I’m in it for the clean disruption, but I hold no MBA. Could someone explain to me to what degree it would be possible that we at some point in the mid term future would be forced to sell our stocks at a ridiculously much lower price than today, to some nefarious player(s) that has couped the company by shorting it to hell (apparently possible on a daily basis without consequences, fail to deliver etc).

TIA and cheers to the longs!

Simple understanding ...

No leverage: They can't just take shares away from you. Company could go private(&pay current going rate) or bankrupt (& not pay at all, or after paying other debtors like bond holders - who get higher priority than share holders)

leverage: They provide you margin based on value of portfolio.If you spend the margin to buy other assets(stocks, options etc), and value of portfolio keeps going down, you can reach a threshold after which value of portfolio is not enough to support the original loan, at which point they are free to give you a margin call and liquidate shares to get back to equilibrium(value of portfolio supports allowed margin).

cheers!!

 

[elasalle]

Look at a population and income distribution map.

Another fallacy!! (not being done to sell cars ...)
Taking sides and political stance is not a way to sell to the folks on other side of aisle
No 3-D chess here ...

10,000 reasons but this **** ain't one. (hit it J-Z)